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Scott White

2010 Fantasy outlooks: San Francisco Giants

By | Fantasy Writer


For the first time since Barry Bonds left town, the Giants had their eyes on a playoff spot last year, giving the Rockies a fight to the finish. But even though they came up short, their up-and-coming talent assures they won't go away any time soon.

It begins with their pitching staff -- one dominant enough to overcome an offense that ranked last in the NL in on-base percentage and 15th in slugging. Led by two aces coming off their 25th birthdays in Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, the starting rotation only figures to get better if prospect Madison Bumgarner catches on right away and project Jonathan O. Sanchez lives up to his potential. Suddenly, free-agent bust Barry Zito is little more than an afterthought. On the strength of that pitching staff, closer Brian Wilson, who showed enough improvement last season to convince the team he's a permanent solution, could challenge for 45 saves.

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Even though the starting lineup was mostly a liability, it did unveil one shining beacon of hope in Pablo Sandoval. He represents the organization's first homegrown hitter with All-Star potential since Matt Williams and Will Clark. That's a prospect 20 years in the making, not to mention a sign that the Giants realize they can no longer win the way they did with Barry Bonds, filling out a lineup with middling veterans and asking him to make up for any deficiencies. They need hitters up and down the lineup, and when top prospect Buster Posey takes over as starting catcher, they'll take another step in that direction.

Of course, they did bring in the obligatory veterans, convincing themselves Aubrey Huff and Mark DeRosa qualify as middle-of-the-order hitters even though most other teams saw them as role players. Still, both represent upgrades at their respective positions, meaning Lincecum, Cain and company will only have more reason to succeed in 2010.

Breakout: Jonathan O. Sanchez, SP

It has to come together for this strikeout artist eventually, doesn't it? He took another step forward last year, but it didn't come easily, his early-season struggles forcing him to the bullpen for a short period. He pitched well when he returned, though, posting a 3.46 ERA over his final 16 starts, which included a no-hitter. The 27-year-old left-hander will have to improve his control to avoid becoming an Oliver Perez type whose performance doesn't match his stuff, but based on his age and steady progress, if a breakthrough is coming, it'll come soon. He isn't a breakout candidate in the "turn your draft upside-down to make sure you get him" mold, but more one of the "take a flier on him late just in case" variety. Starting pitchers who average more than a strikeout per inning are few and far between.

Bust: Bengie Molina, C

Just when the Giants hinted Buster Posey would start, they backed down and re-signed Molina. On the surface, a return to San Francisco seems like good news for the veteran catcher -- after all, he had his best years there -- but just because the Giants haven't turned the page to Posey doesn't mean they haven't turned it from Molina. He won't bat cleanup anymore, which eliminates all those RBI opportunities that set him apart from other catchers, and at age 35, he has nowhere to go but down. He struck out a career-high 68 times last season, indicating a loss of bat speed, and injuries have already become a factor. The slightest muscle pull opens the door for Posey to take the job and never look back. Molina is nothing more than a stopgap -- a good one, but just as temporary as any other.

Sleeper: Madison Bumgarner, SP

Bumgarner worked mostly out of the bullpen in his brief stint with the Giants last season, but he looked every bit ready for major-league duty, striking out 10 batters in 10 innings. And that was with his velocity down -- something an offseason of rest should cure. With all the talent in their starting rotation, the Giants have no reason to rush Bumgarner, so the fact he stands to win a rotation spot at age 20 speaks volumes of his talent. He's a future ace -- and one relatively unhyped, possibly because the Giants have so many aces already. He'll endure some growing pains, but a rookie season much like the one Brett Anderson had last year is possible. If he goes undrafted in your league, you'll want to keep a close eye on him because once he figures things out, he won't look back.

San Francisco Giants Outlook
Projected lineup
Pos.
Projected Rotation
1 Aaron Rowand CF 1 Tim Lincecum RH
2 Freddy Sanchez 2B 2 Matt Cain RH
3 Pablo Sandoval 3B 3 Barry Zito LH
4 Aubrey Huff 1B 4 Jonathan O. Sanchez LH
5 Mark DeRosa LF 5 Madison Bumgarner LH
6 Bengie Molina C Alt Todd Wellemeyer RH
7 Edgar Renteria SS Top bullpen arms
8 Nate Schierholtz RF CL Brian Wilson RH
Top bench options SU Sergio Romo RH
R Juan Uribe INF RP Jeremy Affeldt LH
R Eugenio Velez UTL RP Brandon Medders RH
R Travis Ishikawa 1B RP Dan Runzler LH
Rookies/Prospects Age Pos. 2009 high Destination
1 Buster Posey 23 C Majors Triple-A
Compares to Joe Mauer, but return of Molina delays him for now. Should be perennial All-Star.
2 Madison Bumgarner 20 SP Majors Majors
Dip in velocity a concern, but future ace will get shot at age 20. Numbers suggest he's ready.
3 Thomas Neal 22 OF Class A Double-A
Walks plenty and regained power stroke after '07 shoulder surgery. Could arrive by midseason.
4 Zack Wheeler 19 SP DNP -- unsigned Class A
First-round pick in 2009 still years from contributing, but should give Giants another ace.
5 Dan Runzler 25 RP Majors Majors
Relievers rarely matter in Fantasy, but lefty has closer stuff. If Wilson goes down, watch out.
Best of the rest: Roger Kieschnick, OF; Chris Dominguez, 3B; Kevin Pucetas, SP; Darren Ford, OF; Joe Martinez, SP; Brandon Crawford, SS; Nicholas Noonan, SS; Conor M. Gillaspie, 3B; Henry Sosa, SP; Matt Downs, 2B; Mike McBryde, OF; Jackson Williams, C; Charles Culberson, SS; Tommy Joseph, C; Alex Hinshaw, RP; Francisco Peguero, OF; Ehire Adrianza, SS; and Osiris Matos, RP.

You can e-mail us your Fantasy Baseball questions to DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Team outlooks in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state.

 
 
 
Player News
A.J. Burnett
Burnett market is heating up
A.J. Burnett, SP, NYY
2/11/2012
News: FOXSports.com reports that four teams are now interested in Yankees SP A.J. Burnett, including the Pirates, who have been in trade negotiations over the righty for the last three days. The Pirates are still the Yankees' preferred trading partner, though ESPN.com reports that the two sides are still in dispute over how much of Burnett's salary the Yankees should pay and which players Pittsburgh would give up. One of the four teams vying for Burnett is on his "no-trade list," though that team has not been identified.
Analysis: While the Yankees and Pirates are not close to making a deal, several sources have reported that there is a good chance that the sides will come to an agreement before the start of the regular season. A move to the National League will probably have a positive impact on Burnett's stats, but ultimately, he would still be too big of a risk to draft in standard mixed leagues.

Mike Napoli
Napoli avoids arbitration
Mike Napoli, C, TEX
2/11/2012
News: Texas C Mike Napoli agreed to a one-year, $9.4 million contract with the Rangers on Saturday to avoid an arbitration hearing, according to ESPN.com. Napoli, who is recovering from a left ankle injury, posted career highs in home runs (30) and RBI (75) last season.
Analysis: Napoli's injury could limit him during the early part of spring training, but he is not expected to miss any time during the regular season. Napoli enjoyed a career year during his first campaign with the Rangers and topped 20 homers for the fourth consecutive season. He will likely earn more starts at catcher this season and should be considered a solid C option in the early rounds of most 2012 Fantasy drafts.

Manny Ramirez
Field of Ramirez suitors shrinks by one
Manny Ramirez, DH, TB
2/11/2012
News: MASN.com reports that the Orioles have decided not to pursue free agent DH Manny Ramirez. Baltimore had been one of three teams, along with Oakland and Toronto, who had been considering the 39-year-old. "I don't think there's going to be a fit for Manny," executive vice president Dan Duquette said. "We've looked at that all winter and I'm not sure there's a fit there for the Orioles. I wish Manny a lot of luck, but I just don't think he fits in our ballclub right now." The team has recently signed free agents Wilson Betemit and Nick Johnson, both of whom could contend for the DH spot, lessening the need to sign Ramirez.
Analysis: The Orioles now have other potential designated hitters to turn to, and Ramirez comes with a 50-game PED suspension, so he is not an attractive option. With the A's and Blue Jays still in play, though, Ramirez still has a chance to be relevant in AL-only leagues this year.

Tommy Hanson
Hanson smooths out his delivery
Tommy Hanson, SP, ATL
2/11/2012
News: The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports that Braves SP Tommy Hanson has worked this offseason to alter his pitching delivery in the hopes that it will make him less prone to injury. Hanson missed most of the final two months of last season due to a shoulder injury, and his health issues were attributed, at least in part, to a hitch in his delivery. He has worked with pitching coach Roger McDowell on a new, smoother delivery over the last six weeks, which should shift some of the stress of his throwing motion to his lower body. In addition to reducing the impact on his arm and shoulder, the more compact delivery should help Hanson to reduce the number of stolen bases off of him.
Analysis: We have yet to see how well Hanson will pitch in a game with his new delivery, but if it can make him more durable and prevent steals, it will enhance his already-robust Fantasy value. Even with health concerns, Hanson profiles as a low-end No. 2 SP, and if his new delivery works out, he could produce at an even higher level.

Jason Varitek
Varitek getting some interest
Jason Varitek, C, BOS
2/11/2012
News: CBSSports.com Baseball Insider Jon Heyman reports that free agent C Jason Varitek has received some interest from teams this offseason, and he will soon decide whether to play in 2012. The Red Sox, for whom Varitek has played his entire 15-year major league career, are among the teams interested. Retirement is a possible option for the 39-year-old.
Analysis: Varitek has played in just 107 games over the last two seasons, so even if he decides to play one more year, he is unlikely to be a factor in most Fantasy leagues. He does still have some pop in his bat, though, so owners in deep formats should stay tuned to see what Varitek decides.

Brandon Gomes
Gomes recovering from back surgery
Brandon Gomes, RP, TB
2/11/2012
News: The Tampa Bay Times reports that Rays RP Brandon Gomes continues to recover from back surgery that he underwent in November, and he is at risk of missing the beginning of spring training. Gomes had the procedure to clean out the area around a disc, and he is still probably at least two weeks away from throwing off a mound. "Right now it's progressing along great, I don't really see anything to be concerned about," Gomes told reporters on Friday. "I might miss the very beginning of spring training, but that's about it." Gomes could still be ready for the beginning of the regular season.
Analysis: Gomes pitched well in his rookie season, posting a 2.92 ERA in 40 games with the Rays. He will probably fill a middle relief role for Tampa Bay again this season. A good strikeout pitcher, Gomes is a low-end option for owners in leagues that use middle relievers.

Cody Ross
Ross re-working his swing
Cody Ross, LF, BOS
2/11/2012
News: Red Sox OF Cody Ross was disappointed with his 2011 season, in which he batted just .240 for the Giants, but he told WEEI.com that he is making some changes in order perform better in 2012. Ross watched video from his performances last year and noticed some adjustments that he needed to make at the plate. Specifically, Ross said he is "really focusing on just driving the ball and staying on top of the ball as opposed to swinging with more of an upper-cut." Ross started to address these changes late last season, working with former Giants teammate Carlos Beltran.
Analysis: Ross' flyball rate skyrocketed to 48 percent last season, resulting in a high percentage of flyouts, which put a damper on his batting average. Not only could his new approach to hitting help him to cut back on those easy outs, but it could pay big dividends in doubles-friendly Fenway Park. Ross lacks a regular position, but between filling in for injured Carl Crawford (wrist) early in the year and spelling Ryan Sweeney in right field, he could put together a decent amount of playing time. Look to Ross as a solid option in AL-only leagues.

Miguel Cabrera
Cabrera shedding weight for move to 3B
Miguel Cabrera, 3B, DET
2/10/2012
News: Tigers C Alex Avila told ESPN.com on Friday that Miguel Cabrera has lost 20-25 pounds this offseason in anticipation of his move to third base. Cabrera, who played first base each of the last few seasons, is moving to the hot corner with Prince Fielder signing with Detroit in the offseason. Cabrera batted .344 with 30 home runs and 105 RBI in 2011.
Analysis: Cabrera came up as an infielder and has shown in the past that he can play the hot corner. His size has been one of the bigger question marks on whether or not he can last an entire season at third base so shedding some weight should help the process. Good thing for Fantasy owners is that his defense will not affect on his value, and he should continue to mash at the plate for Detroit. Add to the fact that he will gain duel eligibility and owners should target Cabrera as a Top 5 Fantasy option on Draft Day.

Sean White
White catches on with BoSox
Sean White, RP, COL
2/11/2012
News: The Red Sox signed RP Sean White to a minor-league deal on Friday. The right-hander posted a 5.68 ERA in 53 appearances in the minors for the Rockies last season.
Analysis: White has a career 4.16 ERA and last pitched in the majors in 2010. Even if he breaks camp with the big club, plan on ignore him in all Fantasy formats on Draft Day.

Garrett Jones
Jones to stay in Pittsburgh
Garrett Jones, RF, PIT
2/10/2012
News: CBSSports.com Baseball Insider Jon Heyman reports that the Yankees offered A.J. Burnett to the Pirates, but had asked for OF Garrett Jones in return. The Pirates balked at the offer, as they want to hold on to Jones. However, negotiations for a trade involving Burnett are ongoing, as the teams are differing on how much of Burnett's salary that Yankees should pay.
Analysis: Should the Pirates change their minds, Jones would certainly benefit from a move to the Yankees and their homer-friendly park. However, it appears that Jones will be staying put in Pittsburgh, where he will remain an option mostly for owners in NL-only leagues.

 
 
 
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