Feb. 12, 2010

2010 Draft Prep: 27-year-old breakouts

By Eric Mack | Senior Fantasy Writer
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Love the breakout 27-year-old theory, or hate it, you cannot ignore it. At least you shouldn't.

Go ahead and curse us for projecting a career year from 2009 bust Grady Sizemore.

But, regardless, targeting players entering their prime just makes too much sense in Fantasy Baseball. You can debate when one's prime begins, sure, but every situation is different.

We define a player's prime as 27-32 as a general rule of thumb: Breakouts at that age are based on medical research that suggests a man's body reaches its physical peak at that point; also, after years of seasoning and pro experience, everything comes together for career highs across the board.

There are subcategories to consider with 27-year-olds as well:

1. 27s already productive and in their prime -- see Miguel Cabrera.
2. 27s who had big years at age 26 -- see Joe Mauer.
3. 27s who have already been productive but are better than they showed in 2009 -- see David Wright.
4. And, finally, 27-year-olds who have yet to break through and can this year -- keep reading.

Let's focus our energy on subcategory No. 4. We always strive to find stocks ready to mature -- injury-plagued Sizemores or not. For a review of last year's 27s, click here.

Remember, a sleeper doesn't sleep if the masses make too much noise about him, but here are our top 10 27-year-olds that we haven't seen the best of yet and can outperform their draft position.

Note: These 27-year-olds will be that age at any point during the upcoming season, whether they turned 27 during last season or not.

1. Rickie Weeks
Second baseman | Milwaukee Brewers
27th birthdate: Sept. 13, 2009
Career highs by category: .279 AVG, 16 HR, 46 RBI, 89 R, 25 SB, .374 OBP, .432 SLUG

Sometimes players get a second chance to be 27, when they celebrate that birthday in the middle of last season. Weeks was one of top 10 27-year-old breakouts last year, but he earned an "incomplete," needing season-ending wrist surgery on a torn tendon sheath. He has had issues with that wrist for years, but if that surgery worked -- Carlos Delgado, Derrek Lee and Gary Sheffield are past success stories from it -- Weeks can be the 30-30 gem he was once billed to be.

Weeks hasn't reached 500 at-bats in his career yet, but we did get a glimpse of the power that made his Triple-A manager once say Weeks will hit more homers than Prince Fielder. In just 147 at-bats in 2009, Weeks hit nine homers. That is roughly one every 16 at-bats. For 500 at-bats, that is 30-plus homers. Since Weeks is a leadoff man, he could get 600 at-bats with a full season of health finally. That would 37 homers.

Not Fielder power, but more on the level of 2009 27-year-old breakouts Aaron Hill and Ian Kinsler. Weeks is a great injury-risk sleeper after the top 10 Fantasy second baseman are off the board.

2. Howie Kendrick
Second baseman | L.A. Angels of Anaheim
27th birthdate: July 12, 2010
Career highs by category: .322 AVG, 10 HR, 61 RBI, 61 R, 11 SB, .347 OBP, .450 SLUG

Kendrick's career has paralleled Weeks' in many ways, namely with the injury woes and general disappointment as an elite prospect. Heck, Kendrick hasn't even reached 400 at-bats in a single season yet, and that is also without much of a walk rate that would keep his at-bat totals low compared to plate appearances.

We have barely seen a half season of Kendrick, much less a full one. His time is now, though.

Despite knocks of being an impatient hitter, Kendrick has long been billed as a future batting champion. He could develop into a 20-20 man in the homers-steals categories, too.

All told, Kendrick is a nice consolation prize if you miss out on an elite second baseman and don't trust Weeks to come through due to his wrist.

3. Miguel Montero
Catcher | Arizona Diamondbacks
27th birthdate: July 9, 2010
Career highs by category: .294 AVG, 16 HR, 59 RBI, 61 R, 1 SB, .355 OBP, .478 SLUG

For years, Montero has been sitting, err crouching, in Chris Snyder's shadow. But Snyder's season-ending back surgery allowed the 26-year-old to break through last year.

The power was always there, even as Snyder's backup backstop, but he now looks like a potential top five Fantasy option at the position. Assuming you can draft him after that lofty status, you will have a great buy on your hands.

In the second half alone, with Snyder fully out of the picture, Montero went .316-11-40-39 (.366-.534). Extrapolated to a full season, regardless of Snyder's return, Montero might be outproduced by only Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez and Brian McCann at the position.

4. Joey Votto
First baseman | Cincinnati Reds
27th birthdate: Sept. 10, 2010
Career highs by category: .322 AVG, 25 HR, 84 RBI, 82 R, 7 SB, .414 OBP, .567 SLUG

Votto is already coming off a career year, but you will be hard-pressed to find anyone who believes he is done getting better. It might lead you to think he has a better chance to be overrated than undervalued. But then you look at the deep and powerful first base position, where Votto is still going to be a fourth or fifth-tier option.

Votto was hitting .360 before he went down for three weeks last season. If not for that stretch, he might have made our top 10 Fantasy first basemen to target on Draft Day, which would make him an early round pick.

He could go .325-30-100-100-10 and wind up with that lofty status going into next season.

5. Stephen Drew
Shortstop | Arizona Diamondbacks
27th birthdate: March 16, 2010
Career highs by category: .291 AVG, 21 HR, 67 RBI, 91 R, 9 SB, .333 OBP, .502 SLUG

Drew is already only the third shortstop in history to have 40 doubles, 20 homers and 10 triples in a season back in 2008, but he was widely a bust in Fantasy 2009 at the age of 26. It sure shoots down the theory that 26 is a better barometer for the start of a player's prime, right?

Well, we won't be so foolish to discredit him for a comeback year this go around. In fact, look at this full list of players entering their prime and count the Diamondbacks. It doesn't include last year's breakout Mark Reynolds or far-away from his prime/burgeoning Fantasy superstar Justin Upton.

What does this have to do with Drew? Everything. Like Troy Tulowitzki, the gold standard for thump at the shortstop position, as his team goes, so goes the shortstop.

It should be a surprisingly good year in Arizona, especially if Brandon Webb proves healthy and ace-like again. Drew should be even better than he was in 2008 and will be a great bargain if he slips past the top 10 Fantasy shortstops taken on Draft Day.

6. Ian Kinsler
Second baseman | Texas Rangers
27th birthdate: June 22, 2009
Career highs by category: .319 AVG, 31 HR, 86 RBI, 102 R, 31 SB, .375 OBP, .517 SLUG

Another second baseman on this list and another second-timer. Kinsler reached 30-30 status as an in-season 27-year-old last year -- actually 31-31 -- but he did it by hitting .066 points lower than 2008 at .253.

His walk rate and low strikeout rate suggest he is much closer to a .300 hitter than a .250 hitter. We still haven't seen 150 games out of him, so if he can finally prove healthy and consistent -- that tends to come with experience -- he could go .300-35-100-100-30. That could arguably make him better than No. 1 Fantasy second baseman Chase Utley at a similar age.

We all should remember the start he got off to last season, hitting .322 with seven homers and seven steals in April. No one can keep that blistering pace, but Kinsler is as good of a bet as anyone.

It will be real tough to acquire him on Draft Day this spring, but we have already seen him slipping a bit further in drafts this year than last. This should still be his best season yet.

7. Chris Iannetta
Catcher | Colorado Rockies
27th birthdate: April 8, 2010
Career highs by category: .264 AVG, 18 HR, 65 RBI, 50 R, 0 SB, .390 OBP, .505 SLUG

After breaking through as a 25-year-old in 2008 -- posting that line you see above -- Iannetta slumped to .228-16-52-41-0 (.344-.460) and went from star catcher for Team USA in the WBC to backup backstop to unimpressive Yorvit Torrealba with the Rockies. Blame it on the WBC, if you want.

Iannetta might have to beat out 2009 surprise Miguel Olivo, who signed with the Rockies in the offseason, but Iannetta is just too good to overlook on Draft Day, particularly at such a thin position. The perception he might not play everyday will allow him to outperform his draft position even if he can't quite match his first semi-full season in '08.

8. Carlos Quentin
Outfielder | Chicago White Sox
27th birthdate: Aug. 28, 2009
Career highs by category: .287 AVG, 36 HR, 100 RBI, 96 R, 7 SB, .394 OBP, .571 SLUG

Quentin, a repeat 27-year-old, was more breakdown than breakout last year. He gets a chance to redeem himself.

Although he posted that huge statline all in his 2008 breakthrough, we still haven't seen a full season out of him. With better health, Quentin can go over 500 at-bats for the first time in his young, injury-plagued career and put together a .300-40-110-100-10 (.400-.600) campaign.

Many might have anticipated that a year ago, but the fact he fell woefully short will allow him to slip a lot further on Draft Day. He represents an intriguing injury-risk sleeper after the Top 20 outfielders are off the board in Fantasy.

9. Chris B. Young
Outfielder | Arizona Diamondbacks
27th birthdate: Sept. 5, 2010
Career highs by category: .248 AVG, 32 HR, 85 RBI, 85 R, 27 SB, .315 OBP, .467 SLUG

Apparently we are big believers that you should go out and buy stock in the Diamondbacks. They should enjoy a renaissance as one of the best young teams in baseball this season. If Young comes close to his potential, they might even be a pennant contender.

Because of his high strikeout rate, he might never hit .260 -- he has yet to even crack .250 -- but it is the speed-and-power combination that is so intriguing to us in Fantasy. Since looking like a future 30-30 candidate his rookie season -- .237-32-68-85-27 (.295-.467) -- Young has progressively declined the past two seasons. He even wound up on the bench and back in Triple-A last year.

In his brief stop there, Young was back to being a world-beater. That wakeup call then helped him finish strong with the D-Backs, going .299-8-14-18 with a .598 SLUG after Sept. 4. The fact he went for just a meager $8 bid in the CBSSports.com NL-only analysts auction in mid-February -- to yours truly -- suggests even the touts are overlooking a potential resurgence.

10. Edwin Encarnacion
Third baseman | Toronto Blue Jays
27th birthdate: Jan. 7, 2010
Career highs by category: .289 AVG, 26 HR, 76 RBI, 75 R, 8 SB, .359 OBP, .473 SLUG

There wasn't anything to like about Encarnacion's season last year, one that was plagued by a chip fracture in his wrist that he tried to swing through. Give him credit for that at least.

Encarnacion's career highs suggest he could become a .285-30-100-100-10 slugging third baseman in his prime. He will be on the board after the top 20 at the position to boot. His potential suggests he can finish as a top 10 option, which is plenty of bang for your late buck.

Of course, if everyone buys into the above list, you won't be getting these guys at a bargain. Try making your own list from the names below. Or, better yet, target players in their prime throughout your draft. They have the most potential to improve and outperform their draft position.

Notice we don't list any pitchers in the top 10. We tend to believe that skill is something more specific to experience and mastery than mere physical prowess. If you want to get ahead of the curve on pitcher breakthroughs, we suggest those with 40-70 career starts (roughly starters in their third year).

We break those down in another forthcoming list, but that doesn't mean pitchers can't be at their best at age 27.

Here are the significant players, pitchers included, at the prime age (listed alphabetically): Jeremy Bonderman, SP, DET; Michael Bourn, OF, HOU; Miguel Cabrera, 1B, DET; Robinson Cano, 2B, NYY; Matt Capps, RP, WAS; Ronny Cedeno, SS, PIT; Shin-Soo Choo, OF, CLE; Jeff Clement, C/1B, PIT; Manny Corpas, RP, COL; Kyle Davies, SP, KC; Joey Devine, RP, OAK; Stephen Drew, SS, ARI; Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, BOS; Edwin Encarnacion, 3B, TOR; Andre Ethier, OF, LAD; Scott Feldman, SP, TEX; Gavin Floyd, SP, CHW; Jake Fox, 3B, OAK; Chris Getz, 2B, KC; Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, SD; Tom Gorzelanny, SP, CHC; Franklin Gutierrez, OF, PHI; Juan Gutierrez, RP, ARI; J.A. Happ, SP, PHI; J.J. Hardy, SS, MIN; Blake Hawksworth, RP, STL; Luke Hochevar, SP, KC; J.P. Howell, RP, TB; Chris Iannetta, C, COL; Conor Jackson, OF, ARI; Edwin Jackson, SP, ARI; Jim R. Johnson, RP, BAL; Howie Kendrick, 2B, LAA; Ian Kinsler, 2B, TEX; Casey Kotchman, 1B, SEA; George Kottaras, C, MIL; Jason Kubel, OF, MIN; Andy LaRoche, 3B, PIT; Adam Lind, OF, TOR; Mark Lowe, RP, SEA; Paul Maholm, SP, PIT; Carlos Marmol, RP, CHC; Sean Marshall, SP, CHC; Russell Martin, C, LAD; Jeff Mathis, C, LAA; Joe Mauer, C, MIN; Brandon McCarthy, SP, TEX; Casey McGehee, 3B, MIL; Yadier Molina, C, STL; Miguel Montero, C, ARI; Kendry Morales, 1B, LAA; Brandon Moss, OF, PIT; Jeff Niemann, SP, TB; Fernando Nieve, SP, NYM; Ricky Nolasco, SP, FLA; Micah Owings, RP, CIN; Manny Parra, SP, MIL; Eric Patterson, 2B, OAK; Steve Pearce, OF, PIT; Dustin Pedroia, 2B, BOS; Hunter Pence, OF, HOU; Jhonny Peralta, SS/3B, CLE; Glen Perkins, SP, MIN; Carlos Quentin, OF, CHW; Jose B. Reyes, SS, NYM; Mark Reynolds, 3B, ARI; Clayton Richard, SP, SD; Ryan Rowland-Smith, SP, SEA; Gaby Sanchez, 1B, FLA; Grady Sizemore, OF, CLE; Andy Sonnanstine, SP, TB; Jeremy Sowers, SP, CLE; Tim Stauffer, SP, SD; Huston Street, RP, COL; Eugenio Velez, OF, SF; Will Venable, OF, SD; Joey Votto, 1B, CIN; Jered Weaver, SP, LAA; Rickie Weeks, 2B, MIL; Randy Wells, SP, CHC; David Wright, 3B, NYM; and Chris B. Young, OF, ARI.

While those are favorites to have career years, the list of 27-year-olds is quite large. Here is the list and sortable career stats of players who will be 27 at some point during the 2010 season, broken down by hitters and pitchers.

You should print this list out, highlight these players on your cheatsheet and target them periodically during your draft. The odds are in their favor to be at their best yet and outperform their Draft Day value in 2010.

You can e-mail Emack your Fantasy Baseball questions to DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com.Be sure to put 27-year-olds in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we cannot guarantee personal responses to all questions.