2010 Draft Prep: Potential bounce-back candidates
Well, that didn't go as planned, did it?
Bet you felt that way last year. Maybe not for everyone, but at some point, for some player. And it made you want to scream.
It's not so much the injured ones. You can't predict them, and when they happen, you can write them off as bad luck. Not your fault.
But those other players -- the ones who collapse for seemingly no rhyme or reason -- they'll drive you crazy, making you wonder why you didn't see it, how you didn't know better, what could have possibly gone wrong.
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That's what we're here to figure out.
Now that these players have collapsed, can they bounce back, and to what extent? You want a verdict before Draft Day, and I'm here to play judge, jury and executioner.
OK, not executioner. Except maybe for David Ortiz. He's so dead and gone I didn't even bother to include him.
The process won't undo last year's damage, but at least it'll keep you from making the same mistake twice -- or even worse, missing out on a potential bargain.
So get ready to start moving players up and down your list. Maybe you'll even learn to avoid some of the ones exhibiting the same warning signs.
That is, if there are warning signs.
David Wright, 3B, Mets
Since entering the big leagues as a 21-year-old back in 2004, Wright had always delivered a slugging percentage over .520. Heading into the prime of his career, the power seemed a given.
But it wasn't. The Mets moved to a bigger ballpark, and Wright apparently didn't like it, slugging only .447. He hit 10 home runs for the season -- less than he had in 263 at-bats as a rookie -- and hit no more than two in any month.
Yet for all the blame heaped on Citi Field's deeper gaps and taller fences, Wright struggled just as much on the road, his home runs split evenly between the two.
It doesn't make any sense, does it?
Verdict: A perennial All-Star and five-tool talent in the prime of his career needs a reason to go all Todd Helton on the world, and bigger fences isn't it.
Wright didn't start playing in Grand Canyon. Power hitters are power hitters, and Wright, from the days the Mets selected him in the 2001 draft, has always been a power hitter.
Something else went wrong for him -- perhaps something mental. Nobody is more critical of his performance than he is -- and not in the Jeff Francoeur sort of way where he can't really do anything about it -- so when Wright showed up to camp looking more chiseled than ever, he sent a message that he has every intention of returning to form.
The inexplicable nature of his downfall is reason enough to expect a resurgence. Looking back, Wright's 2009 might serve no other purpose than to change the landscape of keeper leagues by allowing him back into the draft pool.
James Shields, SP, Rays
For the second straight year, Shields' walk rate increased. For the second straight year, his hit rate increased. For the first time since his rookie year, he had an ERA over 4.00, a WHIP over 1.30 and a record under .500. And the story only got worse after the All-Star break, when he went 5-6 with a 5.16 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP.
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The 28-year-old right-hander finally became everything the scouts thought he would become, which sounds like a good thing, but in his case, it's not. The guy lasted until the 16th round of the 2000 amateur draft and never got any love from Baseball America even with stellar minor-league statistics.
Why? His stuff is nothing special, as evidenced by his lagging strikeout rate, and the more he pitches in the big leagues, the more it shows.
Verdict: Shields still eats innings and has excellent control. He can still make a significant difference in the WHIP category. But the chances of him pitching like the ace he was in 2007 are pretty much nonexistent. With his increasingly hittable stuff, he now rates closer to the Mark Buehrles of the world than the Matt Cains, making him exactly the type of low-upside pitcher you should avoid in shallower mixed leagues, where you need the best of the best at every position to win.
Chipper Jones, 3B, Braves
Jones has tried everything to explain his disappointing 2009, when he hit under .290 for only the second time since his rookie season, slumping to .236 with a .389 slugging percentage in the second half.
Injuries. A lack of strength. The premature release of his top hand.
He even brought in his dad to help him with his swing, which is about on the level of me asking my mom to proofread my work.
Not that I've never done it.
But all the runaround, all the excuses, all the proposed changes are nothing more than the baseball equivalent to sporting a hairpiece and cruising around on a motorcycle: He's old and doesn't want to admit it.
Verdict: Really, Chipper, it's enough. You've performed at a higher level than anyone could have expected for longer than anyone could have expected, especially with your unending list of injuries. Your body is bruised, beaten and still miraculously in one piece. If you can hit only .260 these days, with your incredible batting eye, you'll still be a darn good player.
Unfortunately, those numbers wouldn't satisfy Fantasy owners, who only tolerated his injuries because of his Albert Pujols-like production when healthy. And with that gone -- really, at age 38, how could anyone get back to that level? -- he's barely worth the headache even as a middle-round pick.
Russell Martin, C, Dodgers
Two straight All-Star appearances and then this. This!
Er ... what exactly is this?
That's the great unknown. Most declines you can trace back to something -- a mechanical flaw, a change of circumstances, age. Martin just wasn't himself, making him perhaps the poster child of bounce-back candidates.
The two-time All-Star, previously considered one of the better sources of power at the position with his stocky frame, slugged a David Eckstein-like .329 -- and in his mid-20s, no less.
His contact rate remained high. His walk rate remained high. His groundball-to-flyball ratio remained the same as always. So what exactly went wrong?
Verdict: Frankly, it doesn't matter. Nobody drafts Martin under the assumption he'll bounce back, which means he can only be a value. And let's face it: Catcher is weak. Even with the down year, Martin still ranked fifth at the position. He gets at-bats and gets on base; that's pretty much all it takes.
But just for good measure, he decided to beef up in the offseason, adding 25 pounds of rock-hard mass. Maybe the bulk will have the unintended effect of slowing down his bat -- as we've seen from players in the past -- but the chances of a 231-pound behemoth slugging the .329 Martin did last year are pretty, uh, slim.
Martin can only go up from last year, and if he goes up enough, he's elite.
Brad Lidge, RP, Phillies
Coming off a perfect season and pitching for the defending World Series champions, Lidge was on the verge of becoming one of the elite closers in Fantasy.
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Instead, he became the worst closer in Fantasy, going 0-8 with a 7.21 ERA and 1.81 WHIP. He also blew an astonishing 11 saves, worst for a full-time closer since 2006, and left us with no basis for comparison. Pitchers who post those kinds of numbers usually end up in the minor leagues or out of baseball altogether.
Lidge had surgery in the offseason to remove loose bodies from his elbow, so if you want a physical excuse, you have one. But he struck out more than a batter per inning, indicating he still had good enough stuff to succeed.
Verdict: Lidge has averaged 12.1 strikeouts per nine innings over his big-league career -- an unsustainable pace as he enters his mid-30s. Even with that low contact rate, he rarely produced a WHIP below 1.20 because of his shaky control. As his stuff regresses, the opposition's contact rate increases, escalating those walks from an annoyance to a blight.
The surgery can only help, but on the heels of such a dreadful season, Lidge will have to start out nearly perfect to prevent the Phillies from exploring other options. I just don't see that happening. Let's not forget he wasn't exactly Dennis Eckersley in Houston. Even with a significant reduction in ERA and WHIP, he still might be one of the first closers to lose his job and is rightfully no more than a late-round pick.
Jhonny Peralta, 3B/SS, Indians
Peralta seemed on the rise with back-to-back years of 20-plus homers and an increasing OPS. In fact, you might have even called him a breakout candidate entering his age-27 season one year ago.
But then you would have gotten a painful reminder of 2006 -- the last time he masqueraded as a .250-hitting, 12-homer guy.
Of course, which was really the masquerade?
Verdict: Meet Jhonny Peralta. This is what he does. He gets everyone excited about his 20-homer potential -- like that's such a big deal -- and then eventually falls flat on his face because he strikes out 150 times a year. That low contact rate leaves little margin for error. He only gets so many batted balls each year, and if he doesn't quite square up the same way on just a handful of them, his numbers can dramatically suffer.
Considering his relatively limited upside, the fear of him realizing his downside makes him no better than a late-round pick. Come on. You know how many .270-hitting, 20-homer third basemen you can find?
Here's some quick verdicts on a few other bounce-back candidates:
Cole Hamels, SP, Phillies: Whether it was the jump in innings or the run to the World Series title that ruined him more, Hamels couldn't maintain his ace numbers last year, his ERA rising by more than a run. But his strikeout rate, walk rate and home run rate -- the usual indicators of dominance -- were nearly identical to his 2008 marks, and nobody complained about his velocity. Chances are some residual fatigue interfered with his command, causing him to leave more pitches over the plate. With the reduction of innings last season, he should be back in form and ready to regain ace status.
Alex Rios, OF, White Sox: Hey, players who strike out three times as often as they walk are prone to wild fluctuations in batting average, so perhaps Rios' .247 mark after three straight years of hitting .290 or better wasn't such a surprise. But that doesn't mean he's done as a player. If not for the subsequent decline in on-base percentage, he would have stolen 30 bases again, and his power numbers actually improved. With a little better luck, he's a 20-30 guy. Of course, that's assuming a best-case scenario. Truth is he doesn't have much to bounce back to, having proven to be no more than a 15-20 homer guy. The only thing separating him from Franklin Gutierrez is the stolen bases, making a middle-round pick just about right.
Stephen Drew, SS, Diamondbacks: Just when Drew looked like he had turned the corner and was well on his way to becoming the middle-of-the-order hitter scouts projected him to be, he hit a bump. For no rhyme or reason, his numbers took a tumble, and he never showed signs of recovering. Perhaps it's just a matter of him finding his comfort zone. He looked the same as always from the leadoff spot, hitting .301 with an .893 OPS, and figures to bat there this year. His pedigree and earlier progress suggest a return to form, if not more. He does turn 27 before the start of the season, which is a pretty good time for a breakout.
Ryan Ludwick, OF Cardinals: On the surface, this one has an easy explanation: Ludwick should have never put up that .299-37-113-104 line in 2008. He's a journeyman outfielder with some power and went back to playing like one last year. But he has a couple factors working in his favor that could potentially make him undervalued this year. One, Rick Ankiel is gone, which means so is the timeshare. Consistent at-bats are especially critical for streaky players. Two, he'll have a full season of Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday batting in front of him. With them constantly on base, he'll get pitches to hit. Another .966 OPS is unlikely, but a 30-homer, 100-RBI season is possible.
Kelly Johnson, 2B, Diamondbacks: Johnson's downfall continued last year with a cliff dive that ultimately led to him losing his job to Martin Prado. But after years of overcoaching in Atlanta ruined his approach, the progressive staff in Arizona should do him nothing but good. Left to do what he does, relying on hot streaks but drawing walks when he goes cold, he still has the upside to hit 20-25 homers, particularly in that park.
Garrett Atkins, 1B/3B, Orioles: Atkins fits into the James Shields category of "players who set the bar too high." He never appeared on any of the Baseball America lists, the scouts recognizing his silly minor-league numbers came from a silly hitter's park. He was never a long-term solution in Colorado, just the stopgap until Ian Stewart arrived. But then he had to go and put up a .329-29-120-117 line in 2006, making everyone think he was the second coming of George Brett. OK, so he's not a .226 hitter either, but at least that performance broke the illusion of him being a standout Fantasy option. Even with some inevitable rise in batting average, he's good for no more than 15 homers in his new ballpark.
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