2010 Draft Prep: Closers reduced to tiers

As our starting pitcher tiers showed, finding a reliable yet simple way to rank starting pitchers is no easy feat. You think you have a gem who will help you win the strikeout category, but his walks kill your team's WHIP. Another pitcher has good strikeout and walk rates, but his home run rate wreaks havoc on your ERA. No single metric does a creditable job of conveying a starting pitcher's Fantasy value

Fortunately, things are much simpler with closers. At the risk of oversimplifying things too much, all you really need are guys who strike batters out.

Just so we all don't get carried away, I should probably qualify this a bit. When someone like Carlos Marmol walks nearly a batter an inning, you should watch your step before boarding the bandwagon, no matter how many hitters he fans. Likewise, when a closer like Leo Nunez consistently displays high flyball and home run rates, your interest should be tepid, even before you realize that his strikeout rates are mediocre. Aside from these extremes, you can rest assured that tracking K-rates is the surest path to finding a successful closer.

This simple guideline will help you to weed out low-octane closers like Brandon Lyon and Ryan Franklin from the upper echelons of your draft list. That still leaves a bevy of current and potential closers who are poised to whiff at least a batter per inning. At this point, it is helpful to pay some attention to walk rates. Just because David Aardsma and Huston Street will probably sport similar strikeout rates doesn't mean that you want to treat them the same. Street's proven ability to find the strike zone more often makes him a better fit for your bullpen than Aardsma or other location-challenged relievers.

One thing you don't need to be worried about, for the most part, is whether a closer candidate is homer prone. Yes, there are some relievers, such as Nunez, who just can't seem to avoid the long ball, but for nearly all relievers, home run rates fluctuate greatly from one year to the next. Even flyball rates are poor indicators of whether a closer might contract gopheritis in a given season. That's why Jonathan Papelbon and Rafael Soriano were able to maintain low home run rates while yielding plenty of flies last year, and groundballers Bobby Jenks and J.P. Howell both struggled with the long ball. Given the low number of innings that relievers pitch and the relative rarity of home runs (as compared to strikeouts and walks), it is largely a waste of time to rank your relievers with reference to their recent home run or flyball trends.

Armed with two simple measures, strikeout rate per nine innings (K/9) and strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB), we can arrange our Fantasy closers into tiers for drafting purposes. Those who project to strike out at least a batter per inning and maintain a K/BB ratio of at least 2.5 compose the Top Closers category. Closers who just miss out on the top tier, either with a projected K/9 rate between 8.0 and 9.0 or a K/BB rate between 2.0 and 2.5, are still solid options in mixed leagues, but they have less room for error. Finally, those who miss both the 9.0 K/9 and 2.5 K/BB thresholds have so little margin for error that they are vulnerable to relinquishing their role.

Top Closers

Of the 16 closers listed here, the top six form the true elite. Jonathan Broxton, Mariano Rivera, Jonathan Papelbon, Huston Street and Brian Wilson all exceed the 9.0 K/9 rate threshold with room to spare and project to compile an outstanding K/BB ratio of 3.0 or higher, and Heath Bell is not far behind. Andrew Bailey's 2009 stats would place him among the elite as well, but he lacks the proven track record that each of the top six possesses.

Note: All statistics below are 2010 projections.

Frank Francisco's strikeout and walk rates from the past two years have been among the majors' best, but home runs have jacked up his ERA. Though he is a flyball pitcher, a 1.1 HR/9 rate was excessive, and he should post a much lower ERA than last year's 3.83. Many owners may be downgrading Francisco because of his 2009 ERA, but I see him as this year's biggest sleeper in the closer pool.

Rafael Soriano, Billy Wagner, Mike Gonzalez and Kerry Wood all have the stuff and control to be a top saves source, but each one owns a checkered injury history that makes him a risk to draft as a top 10 closer. Jason Frasor and Pat Neshek could potentially have the value of a Jose Valverde or Joakim Soria, but first they have to win the closer's role.

Some Room for Error

The relievers in this group are riskier picks than the elite closers. What separates them from the closers at the bottom of the Top Closers list is not the level of risk, but rather the type. Pitchers like Rafael Soriano and Billy Wagner are capable of being as productive as Papelbon or Street if they can manage to stay healthy for the whole season. Trevor Hoffman and Francisco Rodriguez have produced at that level on a consistent basis in the past, but their recent peripherals suggest that neither will match their peak levels in 2010. Each of the pitchers listed below allows more baserunners than the top closers do, either by virtue of allowing more contact or issuing more walks.

While the residents of this tier are not among baseball's best closers, none are likely to put their jobs at risk. That description might not seem to apply to Kevin Gregg, who was replaced as the Cubs' closer last August. However, hitters launched 13 home runs against him last year, producing a home run rate that was radically out of line with his rates from when he was a Marlin. If given the chance to close for Toronto, Gregg should fare much better.

Vulnerable Closers

The closers on this list are projected to perform at a level that is not substantially different from that of many middle relievers. If they stumble, they could easily be vulnerable to a challenge from the setup men in their own bullpen. Brian Fuentes, Ryan Franklin and Bobby Jenks have been incumbent closers for some time, but each has some aspect of his skill profile that raises a red flag. Fuentes needs to rediscover the command he showed prior to last season if he is to stave off competition from a solid Angels bullpen corps. Not only did his strikeout rate plummet, but according to the data on Fangraphs, Fuentes allowed contact at a much higher rate and induced fewer swings, particularly at balls outside the strike zone. Franklin enjoyed a 1.92 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 2009, and much of the credit for that should go to home run and BABIP rates that were below his career averages. Jenks could easily improve upon his '09 stats, but he may need to do much better if Ozzie Guillen is to resist the temptation of going to J.J. Putz or Matt Thornton.

Closers-in-Waiting

Each of the relievers listed below possesses skill indicators that are eerily similar to those of some of baseball's better closers. While lights-out middle men like Michael Wuertz, Sergio Romo and Rafael Betancourt have the misfortune of setting up for standout closers, each could be a closer injury or a change of scenery away from getting a chance to pick up saves. Others are in more favorable settings to earn saves and help Fantasy owners in 2010. In addition to Putz and Thornton, Sammy Gervacio and Jason Motte could see opportunities to close, given the vulnerabilities of Brandon Lyon and Matt Lindstrom in Houston and Franklin in St. Louis. Should Heath Bell get moved before the trading deadline, look for stellar set-up men Mike M. Adams and Luke Gregerson to get shots at pitching the ninth in San Diego.

Al Melchior will be providing data-centric advice columns Fantasy owners all season. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.