By the Numbers: Oswalt, Dice-K treading lightly

It's been several weeks since we have looked at BABIP and batted ball trends for starting pitchers, but this week the Lucky/Unlucky analysis for starters returns with a new wrinkle. In the upper right-hand corner of the tool below, there is a drop-down menu that allows you to view pitchers' stats by team. When you select a team from the menu, the pitchers' ERA and WHIP (for starters with at least 75 innings pitched) appear in bar graph display. Click on the bars and you can view each pitcher's BABIP and batted ball rates in the scatterplots below.

Why is it helpful to view these stats by team? While variations in pitcher BABIP are often random, sometimes they can be tied to team defense. For example, three-fourths of the Dodgers' starters featured in the tool -- excluding recently-acquired Ted Lilly -- have flyball BABIPs above .125, which is not surprising given the collective lack of range in the L.A. outfield. (You can see each pitcher's BABIP data by mousing over their dot in the scatterplot.) That makes Vicente Padilla's .072 flyball BABIP and .253 overall BABIP all the more curious. On the other hand, Josh Beckett's .192 flyball BABIP, second among Red Sox starters, gives us reason to think that his 6.51 ERA is at least partly the product of bad luck.

We'll delve more into the trends of these two hurlers and several others below.

Players' stats are for all games played through Sunday, August 15.

Who has probably been lucky?

Roy Oswalt, Philadelphia: After posting the first 4.00-plus ERA of his career in 2009, it would appear that Oswalt is back this season. His strikeout rate is his highest since his rookie season, but the impact of those Ks should be blunted by an uptick in walks. His ERA and WHIP aren't showing the effects of those free passes, as he is giving up fewer hits on balls in play (.278 BABIP) than one would expect from a pitcher with league-average line drive and flyball rates. Some owners might be concerned that the move to homer haven Citizens Bank Park might do some damage to Oswalt's ERA, but the bigger concern should be an impending increase in base hits that could cause his WHIP to expand.

Daisuke Matsuzaka, Boston: Dice-K has been a better pitcher than he was in an injury-curtailed 2009 season, but he still hasn't cured his wildness. Matsuzaka has had high walk rates before, and he has managed to keep his WHIP below 1.40, but in those seasons, he wasn't allowing line drives on nearly every fourth ball hit off of him. Batters are hitting .592 against him on line drives in play, and that extraordinarily low average is single-handedly keeping Dice-K relevant in standard mixed leagues. Don't expect it to last through what's left of the season.

Vicente Padilla, L.A. Dodgers: As mentioned above, Padilla appears to be the beneficiary of some very good luck on flyballs. Make no mistake: he should be having a career year, thanks to a big looping curveball that is baffling batters. However, his overall BABIP of .253 is unsustainably low, and it is making his improvement look even more dramatic than it is.

Livan Hernandez, Washington: Yes, Livan's inclusion on the "lucky" list should draw a chorus of "duhs," but there are some reasons to state what might seem obvious. His ownership rates have remained fairly steady since June 1, even though he has posted a mediocre 56/29 strikeout-to-walk ratio during that span. His post-May ERA of 3.77 has been propped up by ultra-low homer and BABIP rates, and when those regress, he will cease to be of much use in many mixed leagues. He is currently owned in 57 of the leagues on CBSSports.com, and a lot of those owners can probably find a better use for Hernandez's pitching spot.

Who has probably been unlucky?

Josh Beckett, Boston: Beckett has no one to blame but himself for his poor performances in his last two outings, as he has given up four home runs in only 9 2/3 innings. Overall, though, he has been much better than his 6.51 ERA and 1.54 WHIP would indicate. Home runs and a high line drive rate have kept Beckett from being his usual dominant self, but as mentioned above, he has given up more base hits on flyballs than one should expect. Given how he has pitched so far this year, it would be unrealistic to expect that Beckett will be among the top Fantasy pitchers over the remaining weeks, but he should still be active in standard mixed leagues.

Mark Buehrle, Chicago White Sox: Over the last two seasons, Buehrle's strikeout rate has fallen off a cliff. Well, this is Buehrle, so really it's just fallen off a bike ramp, decreasing from 5.8 to 4.4 to 3.8 batters per nine innings. Even though he is allowing copious amounts of contact, Buehrle deserves better than a 1.35 WHIP. There is no clear reason, aside from bad luck, as to why he sports overall and flyball BABIPs that are higher than average. Buehrle has proven over his career that he doesn't need high strikeout rates to succeed, and he has the pinpoint control and low line drive rate to be a useful mixed league pitcher.

Edwin Jackson, Chicago White Sox: His June no-hitter seemingly forgotten, the common perception is that Jackson is having a much worse season than he did last year. With his ERA having grown by more than a run, it's easy to see where that perception comes from, but substantial increases in his strikeout and ground ball rates are among some of the positive developments Jackson has seen in 2010. With more ground balls come a few more base hits, at least on balls in play, but his .324 BABIP is probably about 15 to 20 points too high. Expect a correction for Jackson over the weeks to come.

Joe Blanton, Philadelphia: Blanton was flat-out ineffective out of the gate this season. He started the year late, sidelined with a late oblique strain into early May, and by the end of June, he had already allowed 13 homers. It's time for perception to catch up with reality, as Blanton has been quite good over his last eight starts. His ERA and WHIP don't reflect the improvement, because he is getting clobbered on balls in play, though his line drive rate has been only slightly elevated. With his peripherals looking solid and the Phillies' lineup getting back to full strength, Blanton is a superb buy-low target for the stretch run.

Who has been neither lucky nor unlucky (based on current batted ball rates)?

Tim Lincecum, San Francisco: It would be tempting to look at BABIP trends for the cause of Lincecum's struggles, but you won't find any answers there. His BABIP is quite high at .329, but he has been hittable to the tune of a 23 percent line drive rate. The fact that he has allowed eight homers over his last 10 starts is just further evidence that Lincecum is just not pitching at the elite level this year.

Jason Hammel, Colorado: Of the 25 major league starters with a K/BB ratio of at least 3.0, Hammel has the third-highest ERA. Only James Shields and Scott Baker have higher ERAs, but unlike either of them, Hammel is a ground ball pitcher who doesn't get hurt by the long ball. He just has a nasty habit of letting batters square up against him and hit liners. That's why he has posted BABIPs of .338 and .320 over the last two seasons and why he isn't more than a fringe mixed league pitcher in Fantasy.

Jeremy Guthrie, Baltimore: Earlier this season, it appeared that Guthrie was getting more than his share of good luck, but he has been a much better pitcher over his last six starts. In addition to allowing plenty of gopherballs, Guthrie was frequently getting torched with five or more line drives in a single game. Lately he has been inducing more grounders and keeping more flyballs in the park, and his Fantasy stats (aside from 11 losses) are genuine reflections of the improvement. His value is limited somewhat by a low strikeout rate, but Guthrie is looking more and more like a pitcher you can trust most weeks in deeper mixed leagues.

Ross Ohlendorf, Pittsburgh: When Ohlendorf posted a sub-4.00 ERA backed by a pedestrian set of peripherals last season, it was hard to discuss him without using the adjective "overperforming." Yet the Princeton grad is back with a 3.95 ERA after 19 starts in 2010. Owners can trust Ohlendorf's current stats, as there is nothing suspicious about his .303 BABIP, and he has also enjoyed improvements in his strikeout and home run rates. Even after taking a Troy Tulowitzki liner to the head on July 28, Ohlendorf has continued to roll along. Even though he is backed by a punchless Pirates lineup, he still deserves to be trusted in more than six percent of our leagues.

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