Dear Mr. Fantasy: When two isn't better than one

The two-start pitcher. Until Fantasy Baseball converts to daily or even semi-weekly scoring, he will remain the thorn in every Fantasy owner's side.

You want to take advantage of him if he's there, but half the time it backfires, making you wonder why you even made the effort.

No doubt, good things can come from using a two-start pitcher. Having more opportunities is never a bad thing. But at the same time, it doesn't make up for marginal talent.

So where do you draw the line? It's not a simple matter of doing the math. A two-start Jeremy Bonderman, who averages 9.4 points per start, isn't worth as much as a one-start CC Sabathia, who averages 17.9 points per start. Part of the incentive for using the better pitcher is safeguarding against the negative, which Sabathia will do. A pitcher like Bonderman is just as likely to destroy you.

Not straightforward enough for you? Tough. It's one of those aspects of the game that relies more on feel than anything else.

I have a question regarding pitching with the playoffs coming up. If winning is the difference between moving on or going home, would you use an average two-start pitcher over a dominant one-start pitcher? Everyone seems to side with the two-start pitcher, but I'd rather stick with the horses that got me there. Here are my main starters: Matt Cain, John Danks, Felix Hernandez, Jon Lester and Adam Wainwright. If they were each making only one start and guys like Johnny Cueto, R.A. Dickey, Hiroki Kuroda and Ted Lilly were making two, which would you use? -- Michael Coone

SW: This is a pretty common question -- one I'll never be able to answer to anyone's satisfaction. People want to make it into an all-of-one, none-of-the-other sort of deal, and it's simply not one. It varies from pitcher to pitcher and situation to situation. Sometimes you'll want to start the lesser two-start pitcher, but sometimes you'll want to stick with the reliable one-start guy.

More than anything, the decision depends on the discrepancy between the two pitchers. Is it the difference between a one-start Chris Carpenter and a two-start Kyle Davies or a one-start Matt Garza and two-start Jonathon Niese? It's not an even comparison.

In your specific situation, none of your lesser starters are really all that bad. I'd be happy to start Lilly or Dickey on any of my Fantasy teams. Looking at those options, I think you'd want to get the two-start pitcher in your lineup more often than not.

Here's how I'd approach it. Wainwright, Lester and Hernandez are all clear-cut aces and unbenchable in any Fantasy format. It's not just the good starts that make them so valuable, but the lack of bad starts. Stick with them regardless of matchups or number of starts. Danks and Cain, while clearly your fourth- and fifth-best options, aren't quite as consistent or dominant. I'd prioritize them over your bench options -- especially if they had favorable matchups against the Mariners or Pirates or something -- but I wouldn't shy away from sitting them for a two-start Lilly, Dickey, Cueto or Kuroda, in that order.

That doesn't mean I'd go scouring the waiver wire for a two-start Rodrigo Lopez if I had a shortage of two-start pitchers one week. Too much risk there.

I'm in a 10-team NL-only Head-to-Head categorical league. We're allowed to keep three players based on their draft position, with free-agent pickups counting as eighth-rounders. I'm torn between four players for my three spots. Should I keep Carlos Gonzalez in the sixth round, Troy Tulowitzki in the eighth as a free agent pickup, Mat Latos in the 15th or Michael Stanton in the 21st? -- Jeremy Siegel, New York

SW: Someone cut Tulowitzki in an NL-only league? I understand he was injured, but dang, put him on your bench or something.

But let's not get sidetracked here. The point of this question isn't to critique your competition, but to examine the value of projectability. Too often people fall into the trap of keeping the lower-round pick, assuming it's the better value, when really, value is a relative concept.

Yes, Stanton could be a great deal in the 21st round, but you can't say for sure since he hasn't proven he can do anything other than hit home runs. If he hits 30 homers next year, but with only a .240 batting average and 65 runs scored because he doesn't get on base often enough, what does that make him? A 10th-, 11th- or 12th-rounder? And you know nobody's going to draft him sooner than that -- too much fear of the unknown -- so if you want him back, you'll have plenty of chances to get him, even if it's not as late as Round 21.

Gonzalez, on the other hand, is a known commodity, picking up where he left off late last season to emerge as a five-category stud and the fourth-ranked player in mixed categorical leagues. You know he's a great deal in the sixth round, so why not just keep him? If you throw him back, you're talking about a potential second-rounder in your format. Good luck getting that back.

Tulowitzki is arguably the best shortstop in Fantasy and obviously a steal in the eighth round. Latos is practically an ace in mixed leagues, much less NL-only formats, so he's a no-brainer in the 15th round.

I really don't understand all the debate, Jeremy. Go with Gonzalez, Tulowitzki and Latos and wait until next year with Stanton.

I'm in a 10-team Head-to-Head league with standard scoring. I'm currently in first place, and the guy in second place offered me Tim Lincecum and Francisco Liriano for David Price and Yovani Gallardo. Which two pitchers would you rather have for the stretch run? -- Jason Smith, Edmonton, Canada

SW: Maybe at the All-Star break, I would have called this trade a lucky break for you and advised you to make the move for Lincecum and Liriano, but now, I think it's a case of a proactive owner trying to unload two potential trouble spots before it's too late.

That's not to say Lincecum and Liriano have nothing left to offer and are doomed to failure from now until October, but each comes with some element of risk that Price and Gallardo don't.

Lincecum is still arguably the "best" player in this deal, but his velocity is down. It's been an issue all year but has really started to affect his performance lately. Over his last three starts, he has a 9.00 ERA and a 2.07 WHIP. His numbers are trending the wrong direction for obvious, outward reasons, and that's a headache you don't need if you're already in a good position.

Liriano's numbers are also trending the wrong direction -- he has a 4.35 ERA and a 2.13 WHIP over his last two starts -- but his situation is a little easier to understand. He's going through a dead-arm period, which usually isn't a big deal, but it can sometimes take a little time to overcome. Again, if you're confident in the pitchers you already have, why mess with it?

A few weeks back, I wondered if Price's increased workload would begin to affect his numbers, but with a 2.59 ERA and 33 strikeouts in 24 1/3 innings over his last four starts, he has more or less put those concerns to rest. I'd trust him as my ace more than I'd trust Lincecum, and Gallardo is at least as good as Liriano.

I'm in a 12-team keeper league, and my pitching is great with guys like Adam Wainwright, Felix Hernandez, Chris Carpenter and David Price. I was recently offered Mark Teixeira and Brian Roberts for Hernandez. I wouldn't have any trouble fitting Teixeira into my lineup, and I could use Roberts with Ian Kinsler on the DL. Should I make the trade and then deal one of the second basemen along with Ryan Braun, Jason Heyward or Michael Stanton for a top-tier outfielder? -- Danny Kremen, Harpers Ferry, W.V.

SW: I think most people would be happy to have any of Wainwright, Hernandez, Carpenter or Price as their ace. You have all four, so trading one for extra hitting certainly couldn't hurt. Teixeira is still a stud, making up for his decline in batting average with production in other areas, and Roberts is a nice little throw-in for your situation.

Of course, that throw-in would become meaningless if you then moved one of your second basemen, but if you can wait until Kinsler returns, it's not the worst idea in the world. I'm not sure how much of an upgrade you could expect over Braun -- even with his recent struggles, he's still the eighth-ranked outfielder in Head-to-Head leagues -- but either Heyward or Stanton would be worth shopping. If you play your cards right, you could maybe get a Matt Holliday or a Jose Bautista in return, which would give you a pretty fearsome lineup to close out the season.

I have a logjam going on with Jose Bautista, Josh Hamilton, Carl Crawford, Aubrey Huff and Chris B. Young. I'm currently starting Huff at first base, but Justin Morneau should be coming back soon. Should I look to trade one of Bautista, Hamilton or Crawford for a good pitcher? -- Jim Curtin, Chicago

SW: I don't know if you can assume Morneau will automatically go back to being the .345-hitting, 1.055-OPS guy he was in the first half. His concussion has turned out to be a pretty big deal, and as we've seen from some of the more serious concussions in recent years (hello Ryan Church), players don't always come back the same.

And if that's not a big enough obstacle, Morneau still has a poor second-half track record working against him. He has a career .929 OPS before the break and a .791 mark afterward.

If you're going to trade anyone, I'd campaign for him just so you don't have to deal with the unknown. He obviously has plenty of name value, and some Fantasy owners -- ones much like yourself -- would look at his first-half numbers and assume they're going to continue. I'd wait until he's on the brink of returning and then dangle him for a Justin Verlander or Yovani Gallardo type.

If that doesn't work, I'd try shopping Young over the three guys you mentioned. Bautista, Hamilton, Crawford and Huff are the top four outfielders in Head-to-Head leagues, in case you haven't noticed, so you'll want to hang on to them. Of course, Young is a top-10 option himself, but his strikeout rate still kind of scares me. I'd hate for him to end the season on a long-overdue cold streak.

I'm in an AL-only auction Rotisserie league where each owner can keep up to five players. Which of the following would you keep: Kurt Suzuki at $1, Mark Teixeira at $43, Robinson Cano at $20, Alex Rodriguez at $35, Alexei Ramirez at $24, Carl Crawford at $32, Juan Pierre at $17, Jason Kubel at $7, Francisco Liriano at $11 and Carl Pavano at $2. To further complicate matters, I'm trying to swing a deal to get Felix Hernandez at $29. What do you think? -- Steve Wong, Arlington, Mass.

SW: You know the season is winding down when you get more questions about next year than this year. But keepers are fun too, so let's do our best to tackle these.

Cano is the easiest choice to keep. He's arguably the best second baseman in Fantasy now, so you'd have a hard time getting him back for double that price. Suzuki isn't exactly a stud, but he's the most reliable catcher in the AL after Joe Mauer and Victor Martinez. You have to keep him for a buck. Liriano is back pitching like an ace, so $11 is good value for him, and Pavano, while somewhat of an overachiever, is worth a $2 bid even if he wins half as many games next year.

So you're down to one spot for Teixeira, Rodriguez, Ramirez, Crawford, Pierre and Kubel. Normally, you'd prefer to keep the better players, but you could probably get Teixeira back for a few bucks less next year. Same goes for A-Rod, who wasn't selling for much more than that when he was a clear-cut first-rounder -- something he likely won't be heading into next year. Ramirez and Pierre are nothing special at those prices and not even worthy of your consideration.

Really, your choice comes down to Crawford and Kubel -- both of whom would cost you at least $5 more in a redraft. Crawford is an elite source of stolen bases, which are always in short supply, so I'd probably just stick with him even though Kubel might be the better value. Maybe Crawford will sign with an NL team and make your decision easier.

If you make that deal for Hernandez, I think I'd still go with Crawford or Kubel over him. High-end hitting is more valuable than high-end pitching in Rotisserie leagues, especially ones as deep as yours.

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