Sliders: Stephen is anything but even

I see the numbers. I'm just not sure I can believe them.

How could anyone? The guy endured the longest home-run drought of his career earlier this year -- a full 205 at-bats -- dropping his ownership percentage to 83 and his starting percentage to 60. The perpetual disappointment had disappointed for the last time, and by some shallower leagues' standards, his days as a viable option appeared done.

But Stephen Drew wasn't done. Even though he was having a miserable season, even though he was playing in two of the toughest hitter's parks in the game in San Diego and San Francisco, he put together the best five-game stretch of his life, batting .565 (13 for 23) with four homers, four doubles, a triple, nine RBI and 10 runs scored.

I don't get it, and when I don't get it, I don't like to comment on it. But how could I not comment on a shortstop coming off a near 50-point week? People want to hear something.

That's why every couple years or so, just as soon as everybody has forgotten about it, I have to make like John Smoltz with the knuckleball and use the one pitch in my arsenal that keeps me guessing along with everyone else.

Curveball ... This guy has thrown me for such a loop I don't know what to do next.

Stephen Drew, SS, Diamondbacks

Here's what we do know. Drew was named the No. 5 prospect entering 2006 according to Baseball America. The only time he came close to meeting that potential was in 2008, when he hit .291 with 21 homers and an .836 OPS -- a performance that has come to look like an aberration in the two years since.

But this year was supposed to be different. He was turning 27 -- widely considered the prime age for a hitter -- and his power numbers would surely increase as a result. When they didn't and he ended July with slugging percentage (.397) that put him in the same category as Jason Donald and Jeff Keppinger, everybody pretty much gave up on him as a Fantasy mainstay.

Now, after going 205 at-bats without a home run, he has blown up for eight in August. His biggest two weeks of the season have come in the last three weeks, during which he has scored 89 points. In the eight weeks leading up to that stretch, he scored 86.

But all those numbers tell us is that he's hot. Everybody gets that way sometimes. Jack Wilson hit .460 with five homers in September 2007. Considering he's hit only six homers since, we can pretty much assume it didn't mean anything.

Does it mean anything for Drew? Only time will tell. But considering his age and pedigree, you have to at least acknowledge the possibility. September 2010 could end up being the month that makes or breaks him as a Fantasy option.

Sliders ... These players are more than just hot or cold. Their recent play indicates a long-term change in value.

Gio Gonzalez, SP, Athletics

Perhaps you haven't given Gonzalez a second thought this year. Perhaps you wrote off the former White Sox farmhand as a bust of a prospect after he posted a 6.24 ERA in 132 2/3 innings over his first two major-league seasons.

But if you've held on to that bias and eliminated him from your Fantasy radar, you've missed out on one of this season's bigger breakouts.

Really, he never deserved that kind of bias anyway. He's only 24. You have to expect some on-the-job learning for anyone in his early 20s and ignore whatever numbers result from it. Because once he turns the corner, those numbers will become irrelevant.

In Gonzalez's case, the issue was never his stuff, just his command. If he could ever figure out how to throw consistent strikes, you wouldn't even recognize him anymore.

Well, do you? Gonzalez has a 1.36 ERA over his last five starts and a 2.26 ERA in 13 starts since June 16. And it makes sense. He hasn't walked more than five batters in a game this season and has done so only once since April.

He's still not exactly a control artist, walking 3.9 batters per nine innings, but pitchers who allow as few hits as he does can get away with walking more than three batters per nine innings. Just ask Ubaldo Jimenez.

With all the hype surrounding Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill, Gonzalez kind of got lost in the shuffle. But he was a pitching prospect all the same and is just as deserving of starting for your Fantasy team down the stretch. If he remains unowned in your league, pick him up.

Denard Span, OF, Twins

I tried to be patient with Span. He was so unappreciated as a top-20 outfielder last year that I couldn't help but love him.

But now, with only one month to go, I think it's pretty safe to say he isn't the same player he was then.

He isn't even the same player he was earlier this season. It's not just the decline in batting average or the David Eckstein-like .688 OPS that has me down. It's the complete lack of stolen bases. He has just three since the All-Star break and six in 80 games since May 26. That's half the season.

If you drafted Span in Fantasy, you drafted him for his high walk rate and plus base-stealing ability. He isn't contributing on either front. For a singles hitter to have much value in Fantasy, he pretty much has to be Ichiro Suzuki. Span is performing more like Skip Schumaker, only with a more favorable role.

If you own him in a mixed league, see what else is out there.

Derek Lowe, SP, Braves

Lowe is old -- 37 years old, to be exact, which is a year older than Hideki Matsui.

Most Fantasy owners have come to accept Matsui as ancient by now, but for some reason, they haven't caught on with Lowe.

It's right there in the numbers, people. In 39 starts dating back to last year, the right-hander has a 4.96 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP. He has pitched seven innings or more in just nine of those starts and has worked more than six innings in 12 of them.

So he's not an innings eater, he's never been a strikeout artist, and he's having a heck of a time winning games for a first-place Braves team, going 2-7 over his last 13 starts. Just what does he have to offer in Fantasy?

You see what I mean? He's old, worn out and ineffective. In a year when pitching has closed the gap on hitting, when the entire Padres pitching staff has a lower ERA than Randy Johnson did for his career, how could anyone deem Lowe worth owning? It boggles the mind.

At this stage of his career, Lowe is no better than Zach Duke, Rodrigo Lopez, Paul Maholm, John Lannan, Dave Bush or any of the other bottom-of-the-barrel Fantasy options available off the waiver wire. If you own him outside of an NL-only league, you have some serious needs to address on your pitching staff.

Logan Morrison, OF, Marlins

With Morrison, the story seemed all too familiar.

The out-of-contention team looking to draw some fans before the end of the season calls up the top prospect before his power has fully developed, and he of course bombs, batting .233 (10 for 43) with a .592 OPS over his first 10 games. It was laughably predictable. But since then, Morrison has hit safely in 17 of 19 games, batting .342 (25 for 73) with a .960 OPS.

Who's laughing now?

Granted, his power is still underdeveloped. Hot as he was, he hit only one homer over those 73 at-bats, which is just plain bad for a player who came up as a first baseman. But his bat has proven major-league ready. If his batting average during that 19-game stretch doesn't convince you, perhaps his 12-to-16 strikeout-to-walk ratio will. Few players -- young or old -- have such a mastery of the strike zone.

Morrison might not be all that different from Billy Butler at this stage of his career. If anything, he'll walk more, which should lead to more runs scored. In Head-to-Head leagues or any other format that values on-base types, the rookie deserves a roster spot.

Change-Up ... Whoops! I recently wrote something I regret and want to take it back.

Mike Pelfrey, SP, Mets

Back on Aug. 4, Pelfrey was in free-fall mode, and I didn't hold back, saying the Mets couldn't get him back on track because he wasn't that good in the first place. They had tried giving him extra rest, encouraging him to throw his sinker more, and teaming him up with defensive catcher Henry Blanco, but nothing seemed to work. He had a 7.74 ERA and a 2.19 WHIP over his last nine starts.

Turns out they didn't try everything.

Pelfrey's problem ended up being a simple one. He was telegraphing his pitches. For a pitcher to fool anyone, his pitches need to look the same until the moment they come out of his hand. Pelfrey was slowing down his arm action on sliders and splitters, pretty much letting hitters know what was coming.

That explains the .393 opponents' batting average during that nine-start stretch.

Since then, he has a 1.20 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP in four starts, ranking him ninth among starting pitchers and making him more trustworthy come playoff time than I am.

Guess that's why I'm a Fantasy writer and not a pitching coach.

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