Sliders: Just awesome in Houston

Imagine you had a dollar.

It shouldn't be hard. In fact, it shouldn't be happening. You should actually have a dollar in your possession and, therefore, not need to imagine it. If you don't, I suggest you quit reading about Fantasy Baseball and get a job. Or at least start digging around the sofa cushions for change. Man.

That's all I wanted to say.

Sliders ... These players are more than just hot or cold. Their recent play indicates a long-term change in value.

J.A. Happ, SP, Astros

No, it's not. I had a point, and it's this: Happ is like the dollar bill you shoved in the back pocket of those acid-washed jeans that you wore once, washed once, tossed on a shelf in your closet and didn't rediscover until 15 years later.

Or in this case, 15 weeks later.

See, Happ was cool last year, when he rose from relative obscurity to win 12 games and finish second in Rookie of the Year voting. He was indispensible. He was indestructible.

Until, of course, he strained his left forearm and missed about three months. Illusion over.

With that early injury, people grew disenchanted with Happ. He wasn't exactly a forgotten man -- no, his ownership never dipped below 64 percent -- but somehow, without him even throwing a pitch, the perception on him changed. It's like the injury gave people too much time to think, to weigh all the facts against what they had observed and realize, for the first time, that he never ranked among Baseball America's top 100 prospects, that he didn't claim a full-time rotation spot until age 26, and that his first two starts before the injury weren't exactly stellar.

It added up to this: "You know what? He was kind of fluky, wasn't he?"

Apparently, the Phillies fell into the same trap, because instead of viewing Happ's return from the DL as the upgrade their starting rotation needed, they turned to the trade market. And just like that, the man they steadfastly refused to trade for Roy Halladay, the best pitcher of the post-Randy Johnson era, became a secondary piece in a deal for Roy Oswalt.

Eight starts later, Happ is back to being the frontline starting pitcher he was as a rookie, going 5-2 with a 3.21 ERA. He has thrown a two-hit shutout as well as six straight quality starts, and if you take away an especially bad start in St. Louis when he was still finding his footing, his ERA as an Astro is only 1.93.

Rarely does a move from a perennial contender to a sub-.500 team improve a pitcher's value, but that's exactly what happened here. Happ is back to being a reliable every-week option in Fantasy and is, along with the rest of an unheralded rotation, the reason why the Astros are so hot.

That can only mean good things for ...

Brandon Lyon, RP, Astros

Which closer has scored the most Fantasy points over the last two weeks?

If you say Heath Bell, you're wrong. If you say Blaine Boyer, you're crazy. If you say Jonathan Broxton, you've probably been out of the country. The only thing he's trying to save now is face.

The answer is Lyon, who outscored the second-best closer during that stretch by more than the second-best closer outscored the ninth-best closer.

It's not that he has lights-out stuff or eye-popping percentages, but he has the experience in the role to capitalize on his opportunities and the perfect supporting cast to give him those opportunities.

That's right: The 64-73 Astros present the ideal scenario for him.

With the emergence of Brett Myers, the resurgence of Wandy Rodriguez and the acquisition of J.A. Happ, the Astros starting rotation isn't just passable; it's plain good. But with the departure of Lance Berkman and the decline of Carlos Lee, their starting lineup is fresh out of Triple-A.

You get the idea? Nobody on either side is scoring, which means the final scores are low and inherently close.

Granted, the Astros have found themselves on the right side of an abnormally large percentage of those scores recently, which is why Lyon won't be the top Fantasy closer the rest of the way. But even if the Astros' rate of winning decreases, their way of winning won't change, making Lyon a consistent source of saves over the final four weeks.

A lights-out pitching staff with an offense that's just trying to keep up -- it's the same formula that has given Brian Wilson and Heath Bell so many save opportunities over the last couple years.

Lyon still has the job even though Matt Lindstrom has returned, so what's your hesitation? His 44-percent ownership should practically double.

Michael Stanton, OF, Marlins

Stanton homered four times in three games Aug. 11-13, which won't be the last time he puts together a streak like that.

But at what cost?

Over his last 17 games, he's batting .071 (4 for 56) with one home run, but that's not even the part that bothers me. I get he's in a slump. Rookies slump, especially ones of the 20-year-old variety. The part that bothers me is his strikeout rate. He has whiffed 22 times during those 56 at-bats and 93 times in 262 at-bats this season. That's a rate of one every 2.8 at-bats. The only player with a worse rate is Mark Reynolds, and he keeps setting the record each year.

And you've seen the kind of impact it has on his numbers. As little as he makes contact, he needs an inordinate amount of luck to duplicate his .260 batting average from a year ago. Fittingly, he's down to .212 this year, which is more in line with his .239 mark from 2008, suggesting anything higher than .240 or so is a bonus from him. Granted, he still has Fantasy value because he's so good at hitting homers, but one-category performers generally don't get far in Fantasy.

That's my concern with Stanton. If he had played the whole season, he'd be right there with Reynolds in pursuit of the record. So why don't the two get the same treatment in Fantasy? Fantasy owners know Reynolds' shortcomings make him nothing more than a so-so Fantasy option -- a starter only because the third-base position lacks high-end talent -- but in Stanton's case, they keep waiting around for something more.

Could it come? Yeah, but not until he makes significant strides with his contact rate. And considering he's only 20, that could take years.

Unless you play in a categorical league and need to make up ground in homers, Stanton isn't worth owning in mixed leagues.

Ryan Raburn, OF, Tigers

Toward the end of the offseason, Raburn had inherited the title of "deeper sleeper" -- the kind nobody really expects to draft in Fantasy, but who everybody likes to some degree. And who wouldn't like him? He had homered 16 times in 261 at-bats the previous year, suggesting he could approach 25 or even 30 in a full-time role.

Then, Johnny Damon signed with the Tigers, putting an end to that line of thinking.

By the end of May, Raburn had slumped so badly that he no longer even got part-time at-bats. Quickly, he became an afterthought, another of the many one-hit-wonders that have patrolled the Detroit outfield in recent years.

But when Magglio Ordonez fractured his right ankle in late July, the door swung wide open for Raburn again, and even though nobody saw him as the obvious replacement at the time, he quickly proved he was the only man for the job, batting .333 (36 for 108) with 10 homers from Aug. 5 on.

That's the power of regular playing time, which seems to be the only thing that brings out Raburn's full potential. The first time, you could write it off as a fluke, but now that he's doing it again, you have to at least acknowledge the possibility he's a legitimate power hitter. Hey, anyone with second-base eligibility deserves the benefit of the doubt.

Raburn is somewhere in between a more powerful version of Ty Wigginton and a less patient version of Kelly Johnson, which makes him worth owning in more than 56 percent of Fantasy leagues.

Time to like him again.

Hanging Slider This guy looks like a Slider, but not so fast! His recent performance might cause you to misinterpret his Fantasy appeal.

Jonathan Sanchez, SP, Giants

In 94 career starts, Sanchez has averaged 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings.

That's one of the more enticing stats in baseball and one of the reasons you're willing to give the 27-year-old left-hander every benefit of the doubt.

So when you see him have a stretch like he just did, lasting seven innings or more in three of four starts with a 2.30 ERA and only 2.6 walks per nine innings, you might be tempted to think he's turned the corner.

I thought the same thing at the beginning of the season, when he averaged 3.6 walks per nine innings with a 3.06 ERA over his first eight starts. But then came the summer of sameness, when he averaged 5.2 walks per nine innings with a 3.93 ERA in less than six innings per start. The experience was enough to convince me that no matter how good Sanchez looks in three- or four-start spurts, his control will turn wicked again and make him the left-handed version of Daisuke Matsuzaka faster than you can blink.

Sanchez is old enough and has enough starts under his belt to have figured this command thing out. He has made little progress, averaging as many walks per nine innings as he did two years ago, and will forever suffer from high pitch counts and early exits.

That doesn't mean you can't own him in Fantasy, but you should be careful not to overestimate him in crunch time.

Change-Up ... Whoops! I recently wrote something I regret and want to take it back.

Jason Heyward, OF, Braves

A few weeks back, when Heyward had hit .220 with two homers over his last 214 at-bats, his 97-percent ownership rate seemed a little ridiculous, and I suggested people shouldn't feel obligated to stick with him just because of his upside.

Fifteen games later, the only thing that seems ridiculous is me.

Heyward hit .443 (27 for 61) with four homers during that stretch, looking every bit like the once-in-a-generation prospect who made such an impact in April and May that he earned a starting nod in the All-Star game.

Apparently, the thumb injury that first caused the slump in June and landed him on the DL right before the All-Star break, hadn't completely healed. Still hasn't. But Heyward recently made an adjustment that helps him compensate for it, which is the same thing Aramis Ramirez did with his thumb injury earlier this year, before every other part of his body started breaking.

Nobody ever doubted Heyward's long-term ability or questioned whether or not he'd become a star, but I'll admit I shied away from him during his injury-induced slump.

Now, at the most critical juncture of the season, I'm all-in.

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