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2011 Fantasy outlooks: Baltimore Orioles

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Last year's 66-96 record gave the Orioles their 13th straight losing season, but out of a dismal campaign came a few signs of hope.

After the hiring of Buck Showalter as manager in midseason, Baltimore won 34 of their final 57 games. The change of leadership may have been a factor, but the O's were carried by strong late-season pitching. In particular, Jeremy Guthrie, Brian Matusz and Brad Bergesen turned in solid performances once Showalter came on board.

While Matusz and Bergesen picked up their pace, the other young starters -- Jake Arrieta and Chris Tillman -- did not fare as well. With some of their growing pains behind them, the Orioles should improve on their 4.59 team ERA, which was the second-worst in the American League. Free agent signee Justin Duchscherer will provide an additional veteran presence to Guthrie, not to mention a solid arm, if he can come back strong from hip surgery. Koji Uehara, who saved 13 of 15 games after seizing the closer's role in August, is back, and he will compete with Kevin Gregg for the ninth-inning honors this spring.

With no major hitting prospects on the horizon, the Orioles had to hit the trade market to upgrade an offense that scored the second-fewest runs in the AL last season. Mark Reynolds and J.J. Hardy will give Baltimore much more thump from the left side of the infield, though incumbents Josh Bell and Cesar Izturis are expected to remain with the team as reserves. The Orioles went the free agent route to replace Ty Wigginton at first base with Derrek Lee.

Even if Reynolds and Lee fail to bounce back from disappointing seasons, the Orioles' lineup could take some sizable strides this year. Hardy provides a major upgrade over Izturis, Brian Roberts is healthier after missing 103 games in 2010, and Adam Jones and Matt Wieters are still looking for their breakout seasons.

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Things are never easy in the AL East, but for the first time in years, the Orioles have some hope for the future. For Fantasy owners of up-and-coming talents like Matusz, Bergesen and Jones, even the present holds some appeal.

Sleeper ... Brad Bergesen, SP

Bergesen had such a miserable first half last year, going 3-6 with a 6.40 ERA, that Fantasy owners might have forgotten that he was a legitimate mixed league option during his 2009 rookie season. During the second half of 2010, he was much more like the Bergesen we saw the year before, posting a 3.94 ERA and improving both his strikeout and walk rates. Even at his best, the 25-year-old doesn't get many strikeouts, but as long as he can induce ground balls and minimize walks, he'll have success. For the better part of his two-year major league career, he has done just that. You could do worse with a late-round pick in mixed leagues, though you could probably acquire him off waivers.

Breakout ... Brian Matusz, SP

Matusz's 2010 stat line -- headed by a 10-12 record and a 4.30 ERA -- doesn't look very impressive, but few pitchers were hotter over the season's final two months. Over his last 11 starts, Matusz went 7-1 with a 2.18 ERA, thanks to superb control and lower line drive and strand rates. These were the hallmarks of his minor league success, so there is reason to think he can carry his late-season accomplishments over to the 2011 campaign. Not only is Matusz a strong candidate to help his own cause by allowing fewer runs and baserunners, but he should get a healthier dose of run support this year as well. This will be the year that Matusz will become relevant in standard mixed league formats.

Bounceback player … Mark Reynolds, 3B

Despite banging out 32 home runs, Mark Reynolds' .198 batting average was such a drag on his Fantasy value a year ago that he was barely relevant in mixed leagues, especially in Rotisserie formats. The twin culprits were strikeout and flyball rates that were well beyond his normal eye-popping levels. Those rates have been on the rise ever since his rookie season, but they took such huge leaps in 2010 that some regression to the mean seems almost inevitable. Reynolds is still just 27, so it's far too early to write him off as being on the slippery slope of decline. While he won't hit for a high enough average to be an elite option, look for Reynolds to rise back into the top 10 of Fantasy third basemen.

Baltimore Orioles Fantasy Outlook
Projected Lineup Pos. Projected Rotation
1 Brian Roberts 2B 1 Jeremy Guthrie RH
2 Nick Markakis RF 2 Justin Duchscherer RH
3 Derrek Lee 1B 3 Brian Matusz LH
4 Luke Scott DH 4 Brad Bergesen RH
5 Adam Jones CF 5 Jake Arrieta RH
6 Mark Reynolds 3B Alt Chris Tillman RH
7 Felix Pie LF
Bullpen Breakdown
8 Matt Wieters C CL Kevin Gregg RH
9 J.J. Hardy SS SU Koji Uehara RH
Top bench options RP Mike Gonzalez LH
R Nolan Reimold OF RP Jeremy Accardo RH
R Jake Fox DH RP Jim Johnson RH
Rookies/Prospects Age Pos. 2010 high Destination
1 Manny Machado 18 SS Class A Class A
The third overall pick in the 2010 draft got off to a good start at Short-Season Class A. He's a must-draft in long-term keeper leagues.
2 Zach Britton 23 SP Triple-A Triple-A
Sinkerballer had excellent results in Double-A and Triple-A in 2010. Looks ready for the majors at some point in 2011.
3 Ryan Adams 23 2B Double-A Triple-A
Can hit for average and has good power for a second baseman. He will probably start the year in Triple-A, but could fill in for Brian Roberts if need be.
4 Dan Klein 22 SP Class A Class A
The 2010 draftee only appeared in five games in the minors last year but could reach the majors as soon as this year.
5 Xavier Avery 21 OF Double-A Triple-A
Speedy outfielder showed some on-base skills at Class A, but was overmatched after his promotion to Double-A last year. Has the tools to be a solid major leaguer.
Best of the rest: Mycal Givens, SS; L.J. Hoes, 2B; Jonathan Schoop, SS; Ryan Berry, SP; Wynn Pelzer, SP; Joseph Mahoney, 1B; Tyler Townsend, 1B; Matt Hobgood, SP; Brandon Cooney, RP; Bobby Bundy, SP; Connor Naron, SS; Brandon Snyder, 1B; and Caleb Joseph, C.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter . You can e-mail us your Fantasy Baseball questions to DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com . Be sure to put Team outlooks in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state.

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Player News
Red Sox GM: Cespedes 'in our plans for next year'
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(11:13 am ET) Red Sox general manager Ben Cherington said in a radio interview Wednesday that outfielder Yoenis Cespedes is in the team's plans for next year. 

“We acquired him at the deadline in the [Jon] Lester trade because we felt that was the best deal at the time, we still feel that way. He’s in our plans for next year and his versatility and skill in the outfield and gives us the flexibility, could play any of the three positions," Cherington said. "We’ll just see what the rest of the offseason brings. We have a long way to go, and as we get to January, closer to spring training, we’ll know more about who’s here and how it all adds up.”

Cespedes hit .260 with 100 RBI last season between Oakland and Boston. 


Mets SP Matt Harvey eager for the start of spring training
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(10:59 am ET) Mets starting pitcher Matt Harvey, who missed the 2014 season recovering from Tommy John surgery, said "spring training can't come quick enough" during a radio interview Tuesday with WFAN.

"My whole goal is to be able to face hitters in February as soon as I get down to Florida," Harvey said, per NJ.com. "I haven't faced any hitters. I haven't done any batting practice."

Harvey, who was an All-Star in 2013, is 12-10 with a 2.39 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 36 career starts. He is also striking out 9.9 batters per nine innings.


Report: Mets could wait to see if Red Sox put Bogaerts on trading block
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(10:50 am ET) Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts could be a new name that pops up on the Mets' radar as they search for a new starting shortstop.

While it appears Bogaerts will remain with Boston with newly signed Hanley Ramirez moving to left field, a Mets source told the New York Post the team will be watching the Red Sox's situation.

"It’s not like we’re knocking down their door to see if [Bogaerts] is available," the source said. "But we’ll wait and see how things shake out."


Yankees planning to offer three years for Headley
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(10:29 am ET) The Yankees are planning to offer third baseman Chase Headley a three-year contract, but he is likely to look for a bigger offer, according to CBSSports.com Baseball Insider Jon Heyman. Among those teams, the Giants and Blue Jays appear to be the most likely candidates for Headley.

Headley hit .249 with 13 home runs and 49 RBI between San Diego and New York last season. 


Report: Marlins showing interest in Evan Gattis, Chris Davis
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(10:13 am ET) The Marlins have expressed interest in acquiring Braves catcher Evan Gattis and Orioles first baseman Chris Davis, according to the Miami Herald.

Gattis has been mentioned in trade rumors this offseason. It has also been spectulated he could move from catcher to left field.

Gattis, 28, hit .263 with 22 homers and 52 RBI last season while Davis, 28, hit .196 with 26 homers and 72 RBI. Davis was also third in the MVP race in 2013, hitting .286, 53 homers, 138 RBI.


Brewers outright pitcher Ariel Pena to Triple-A
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(11/25/2014) The Brewers announced pitcher Ariel Pena has been outrighted to Triple-A Colorado Springs.

The move opens up a spot on the 40-man roster. Pena has yet to appear in a MLB game.


Giants turn attention to Cruz, Scherzer after Sandoval departure
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(11/25/2014) With the Red Sox officially signing Pablo Sandoval, the Giants have begun talks with a variety of free agents including pitcher Max Scherzer and outfielder Nelson Cruz, reports CBSSports.com Baseball Insider Jon Heyman.

Sandoval’s departure allows the Giants to focus their assets elsewhere and the Giants have also expressed interest in Nick Markakis, Torii Hunter and Chase Headley.


Report: Reported Cubs' offer to Jon Lester is not accurate
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(11/25/2014) Sources have indicated the reported six-year, $135 million contract the Cubs offered pitcher Jon Lester is not accurate, according to the Chicago Sun-Times.

Along with the Cubs, the Red Sox, Giants, Braves and Cardinals have expressed serious interest in signing the left-handed pitcher, reports CBSSports.com Baseball Insider Jon Heyman.

Despite the various teams involved, Red Sox owner John Henry said he is ‘hopeful’ the Red Sox can lure Lester back to Boston, reports WEEI.com.


Pitcher Michael Roth elects to become free agent
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(11/25/2014) After being designated for assignment by the Angels, pitcher Michael Roth chose to become a free agent Tuesday, reports MLB.com.

In 2014, Roth made seven appearances and went 1-0 with a 8.76 ERA.


Red Sox designate Juan Francisco for assignment
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(11/25/2014) To make room on the roster after the signing of Hanley Ramirez, Red Sox third baseman Juan Francisco was designated for assignment Tuesday, according to the team's website.

The Red Sox recently claimed Francisco off waivers from the Blue Jays. In 2014, he hit .220 with 16 home runs and 43 RBI.


 
 
 
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