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2011 Fantasy outlooks: Baltimore Orioles

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Last year's 66-96 record gave the Orioles their 13th straight losing season, but out of a dismal campaign came a few signs of hope.

After the hiring of Buck Showalter as manager in midseason, Baltimore won 34 of their final 57 games. The change of leadership may have been a factor, but the O's were carried by strong late-season pitching. In particular, Jeremy Guthrie, Brian Matusz and Brad Bergesen turned in solid performances once Showalter came on board.

While Matusz and Bergesen picked up their pace, the other young starters -- Jake Arrieta and Chris Tillman -- did not fare as well. With some of their growing pains behind them, the Orioles should improve on their 4.59 team ERA, which was the second-worst in the American League. Free agent signee Justin Duchscherer will provide an additional veteran presence to Guthrie, not to mention a solid arm, if he can come back strong from hip surgery. Koji Uehara, who saved 13 of 15 games after seizing the closer's role in August, is back, and he will compete with Kevin Gregg for the ninth-inning honors this spring.

With no major hitting prospects on the horizon, the Orioles had to hit the trade market to upgrade an offense that scored the second-fewest runs in the AL last season. Mark Reynolds and J.J. Hardy will give Baltimore much more thump from the left side of the infield, though incumbents Josh Bell and Cesar Izturis are expected to remain with the team as reserves. The Orioles went the free agent route to replace Ty Wigginton at first base with Derrek Lee.

Even if Reynolds and Lee fail to bounce back from disappointing seasons, the Orioles' lineup could take some sizable strides this year. Hardy provides a major upgrade over Izturis, Brian Roberts is healthier after missing 103 games in 2010, and Adam Jones and Matt Wieters are still looking for their breakout seasons.

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Things are never easy in the AL East, but for the first time in years, the Orioles have some hope for the future. For Fantasy owners of up-and-coming talents like Matusz, Bergesen and Jones, even the present holds some appeal.

Sleeper ... Brad Bergesen, SP

Bergesen had such a miserable first half last year, going 3-6 with a 6.40 ERA, that Fantasy owners might have forgotten that he was a legitimate mixed league option during his 2009 rookie season. During the second half of 2010, he was much more like the Bergesen we saw the year before, posting a 3.94 ERA and improving both his strikeout and walk rates. Even at his best, the 25-year-old doesn't get many strikeouts, but as long as he can induce ground balls and minimize walks, he'll have success. For the better part of his two-year major league career, he has done just that. You could do worse with a late-round pick in mixed leagues, though you could probably acquire him off waivers.

Breakout ... Brian Matusz, SP

Matusz's 2010 stat line -- headed by a 10-12 record and a 4.30 ERA -- doesn't look very impressive, but few pitchers were hotter over the season's final two months. Over his last 11 starts, Matusz went 7-1 with a 2.18 ERA, thanks to superb control and lower line drive and strand rates. These were the hallmarks of his minor league success, so there is reason to think he can carry his late-season accomplishments over to the 2011 campaign. Not only is Matusz a strong candidate to help his own cause by allowing fewer runs and baserunners, but he should get a healthier dose of run support this year as well. This will be the year that Matusz will become relevant in standard mixed league formats.

Bounceback player … Mark Reynolds, 3B

Despite banging out 32 home runs, Mark Reynolds' .198 batting average was such a drag on his Fantasy value a year ago that he was barely relevant in mixed leagues, especially in Rotisserie formats. The twin culprits were strikeout and flyball rates that were well beyond his normal eye-popping levels. Those rates have been on the rise ever since his rookie season, but they took such huge leaps in 2010 that some regression to the mean seems almost inevitable. Reynolds is still just 27, so it's far too early to write him off as being on the slippery slope of decline. While he won't hit for a high enough average to be an elite option, look for Reynolds to rise back into the top 10 of Fantasy third basemen.

Baltimore Orioles Fantasy Outlook
Projected Lineup Pos. Projected Rotation
1 Brian Roberts 2B 1 Jeremy Guthrie RH
2 Nick Markakis RF 2 Justin Duchscherer RH
3 Derrek Lee 1B 3 Brian Matusz LH
4 Luke Scott DH 4 Brad Bergesen RH
5 Adam Jones CF 5 Jake Arrieta RH
6 Mark Reynolds 3B Alt Chris Tillman RH
7 Felix Pie LF
Bullpen Breakdown
8 Matt Wieters C CL Kevin Gregg RH
9 J.J. Hardy SS SU Koji Uehara RH
Top bench options RP Mike Gonzalez LH
R Nolan Reimold OF RP Jeremy Accardo RH
R Jake Fox DH RP Jim Johnson RH
Rookies/Prospects Age Pos. 2010 high Destination
1 Manny Machado 18 SS Class A Class A
The third overall pick in the 2010 draft got off to a good start at Short-Season Class A. He's a must-draft in long-term keeper leagues.
2 Zach Britton 23 SP Triple-A Triple-A
Sinkerballer had excellent results in Double-A and Triple-A in 2010. Looks ready for the majors at some point in 2011.
3 Ryan Adams 23 2B Double-A Triple-A
Can hit for average and has good power for a second baseman. He will probably start the year in Triple-A, but could fill in for Brian Roberts if need be.
4 Dan Klein 22 SP Class A Class A
The 2010 draftee only appeared in five games in the minors last year but could reach the majors as soon as this year.
5 Xavier Avery 21 OF Double-A Triple-A
Speedy outfielder showed some on-base skills at Class A, but was overmatched after his promotion to Double-A last year. Has the tools to be a solid major leaguer.
Best of the rest: Mycal Givens, SS; L.J. Hoes, 2B; Jonathan Schoop, SS; Ryan Berry, SP; Wynn Pelzer, SP; Joseph Mahoney, 1B; Tyler Townsend, 1B; Matt Hobgood, SP; Brandon Cooney, RP; Bobby Bundy, SP; Connor Naron, SS; Brandon Snyder, 1B; and Caleb Joseph, C.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter . You can e-mail us your Fantasy Baseball questions to DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com . Be sure to put Team outlooks in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state.

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Player News
Angels SP Matt Shoemaker has no doubt he'll pitch in ALDS
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(4:59 pm ET) Angels pitcher Matt Shoemaker completed a bullpen session without any issues on Tuesday, according to the Los Angeles Times.

Shoemaker told the paper he feels he could throw 100 pitches in a game and that he has no doubt he'll pitch in the ALDS. Right now, he is a candidate to start Game 3 for the Angels.


Dodgers SP Hyun-Jin Ryu slated to throw simulated game Wednesday
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(4:31 pm ET) Dodgers starting pitcher Hyun-Jin Ryu, who has been out since mid-September due to a shoulder injury, is slated to throw 45 pitches or three innings during a simulated game Wednesday, according to the Los Angeles Times.

Red Sox SP Clay Buchholz undergoes knee surgery Tuesday
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(4:24 pm ET) The Red Sox announced Tuesday starting pitcher Clay Buchholz had successful surgery to repair the meniscus in his right knee. The team added he is expected to make a full recovery.

C.J. Wilson expected to start Game 2 of ALDS for Angels
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(3:40 pm ET) Angels manager Mike Scioscia told reporters Tuesday he will announce Wednesday the starter for Game 2 of the ALDS. It is expected to be C.J. Wilson, according to The Orange County Register.

Angels' Matt Shoemaker could be candidate to start Game 3 of ALDS
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(3:38 pm ET) Angels pitcher Matt Shoemaker (oblique) will throw a bullpen session Tuesday with breaks to simulate multiple innings, according to The Orange County Register. He could start Game 3 of the ALDS for the Angels.

Marlins expecting to have Giancarlo Stanton on roster in 2015
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(3:33 pm ET) Marlins president David Samson said even if the team can't sign outfielder Giancarlo Stanton to a long-term deal, he is still expected to be part of the Marlins' plans next season, per The Miami Herald.

"He’s on this team [in 2015] either way," Samson said. "I can’t wait until after the season to sit down with Giancarlo and [agent] Joel Wolfe and talk about contract. We’re ready. We want him to be a Marlin well past his arbitration years.

"We hope that he believes in us and believes in Miami and believes in the direction of this team and recognizes that he has a chance to be the leader of a successful team for many years to come."


Russell Martin expects to start for Pirates in wild-card game
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(3:24 pm ET) Pirates catcher Russell Martin, who has been out since aggravating a hamstring injury Friday, told reporters Tuesday he expects to be in the starting lineup for Wednesday's wild-card game against the Giants.

Dodgers 2B Dee Gordon (hip) cleared to run
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(3:20 pm ET) Dodgers second baseman Dee Gordon, who had to leave Saturday's game due to right hip irritation, said Tuesday he feels fine and has been cleared to run, according to MLB.com. The Dodgers will face the Cardinals in the NLDS.

Evan Gattis playing in left field in 2015 is 'an option' for Braves
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(3:07 pm ET) Braves catcher Evan Gattis appeared in a career-high 108 games in his second season in the majors in 2014, which was three more games than he played as a rookie in 2013. He appeared in 93 games at catcher and three games at DH, but he made no starts at first base or left field, which were two positions he saw playing time at as a rookie.

Though, Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez indicated Gattis could play around 140 games next season if he were to play in left field on top of his catcher responsibilities.

"That's an option," Gonzalez said, per the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.


Angels OF Josh Hamilton confident he will lineup for Game 1 of ALDS
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(2:55 pm ET) Angels outfielder Josh Hamilton (shoulder) is expected to face live pitching Tuesday, according to The Orange County Register. Hamilton added he is confident he will be in the starting lineup Thursday for Game 1 of the ALDS.

 
 
 
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