2011 Draft Prep: Top 30 Fantasy questions for 2011
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So ... what's up?
You've been away from the game for a few months now, focused on football, family or perhaps just staying warm.
But now that you've dusted off your league and given your team that new name you thought up in the shower the other day, you're in need of a crash course on all the offseason developments that might influence your decisions on Draft Day.
To that end, colleague Al Melchior and I have compiled a list of our top 30 Fantasy storylines heading into 2011.
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They're the ones you should be monitoring in spring training and beyond, the ones that could make you freeze up with the clock winding down if you haven't thought them through
The ones nobody can really answer, but the ones we'll try our best to in all the columns, features and podcasts released over the next few weeks.
So take some time now to read up and catch up on where the league and many of its most critical players stand so that you can have a better idea where you stand.
Because if you're serious about this whole Fantasy Baseball thing, the draft room is the last place you want to figure it out.
| Our Top 30 Fantasy storylines heading into 2011 | |
| Will Adrian Gonzalez live up to the hype out of PETCO Park? | |
 | Everyone knows the numbers by now. Gonzalez has a career .808 OPS at PETCO Park, arguably the worst park for left-handed hitters, and a .929 OPS everywhere else. Now that he's in hitter-friendly Fenway Park (and has a halfway decent supporting cast), the sky's the limit for him. But the sky is awfully high, and his recovery from offseason shoulder surgery makes him anything but a sure thing. Early drafts show Fantasy owners are willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, targeting him as early as the first round. |
| What will Jose Bautista do for an encore? | |
 | Two years ago, for the price of journeyman catcher Robinson Diaz, the Blue Jays acquired Bautista from the Pirates. The Jays struck gold one year later, as Bautista exploded for 54 home runs in 2010. A revamped swing led him to hit flyballs at a major league-leading rate and to hit the ball harder upon contact. Bautista was no patsy hitting on the road, as he knocked 21 home runs in 295 road at-bats, but he was downright Ruthian at Rogers Centre, clouting 33 bombs in 274 at-bats. With his homer-happy ballpark and batting coach Dwayne Murphy at his disposal again, Bautista will take aim at another 50-plus home run season. |
| Will Justin Morneau be the same coming back from his concussion? | |
| | Fantasy owners were asking themselves the same question last July ... and last August and last September. Morneau never did come back last year, missing the entire second half, which casts a pall over his 2011 season. He should be ready to go, but how bad must the concussion have been to cost him half the season, not to mention the playoffs? Bad enough that he'll never be the same, like Corey Koskie and Ryan Church, or not so bad that he can't make a full recovery, like Aaron Hill? |
| Was the Adrian Beltre we saw in Boston last year the one we can expect going forward? | |
| | No matter how you measure it, Beltre's 2010 season was easily his best since 2004, when he hit .334 with 48 homers for the Dodgers. Moving on from the Red Sox to the Rangers, the 31-year-old Beltre will look to approximate his .321 batting average, 28 home runs and 102 RBI from a year ago. He will hit in a lineup loaded with sluggers, though as in Boston, many of those big bats come with some serious injury risks. Beltre also moves to a park that is far more hospitable to homers than Fenway Park. On the negative side, he leaves behind the majors' best doubles park, one where he hit a career-high 49 doubles. |
| How long before Joe Nathan resumes closing? | |
| | As routine as Tommy John surgery has become, you'd expect Nathan to get back to performing like a top-five closer this season. But the Twins complicated the situation by acquiring Matt Capps, another All-Star closer, at the trade deadline last season. Unlike Billy Wagner, who had a late-season stint with the Red Sox in 2009 before his return to closing last year, Nathan is coming back fresh, so he'll have to convince the Twins he's ready to close before he actually does. Will that happen in spring training? May? July? The answer makes all the difference to his value. |
| Is Chris Sale a starter or a reliever? | |
| | Sale, the White Sox's first-round draft pick last year, could easily be both a starter and a reliever this year. Because Jake Peavy may not be fully recovered from surgery to repair a torn right lat to join the rotation by opening day, Sale will be stretched out during spring training in anticipation of taking Peavy's spot. Should Peavy prove to be healthy and effective this spring, Sale's probable destination will be the bullpen, and most likely the closer's role. Even if he begins the year as a starter, he could be asked to step in for Peavy at some point during the season. Either way, Sale will provide value for Fantasy owners. On the other hand, if Sale spends the year as the closer, Matt Thornton's value will take a major hit, as the prospective closer would get thrust back into a set-up role. |
| Has Jay Bruce arrived? | |
| | Bruce hit 15 homers over his final 105 at-bats last season -- a gaudy statistic that suggests he's about to live up to the potential that made him a higher-rated prospect than Evan Longoria in 2008. He's only 23, so his prior struggles may have been the result of him arriving too soon, if not the after-effects of a broken wrist he suffered in 2009. Still, until he hits 40 homers, he's not a 40-homer guy. Fantasy owners have so far maintained their skepticism, preserving his value by allowing him to slip into the middle rounds. |
| Will Jed Lowrie find a place to play? | |
| | Lowrie was a promising infield prospect rising up through the minors a few years back, but his progress was stalled for much of the last two seasons due to a wrist injury and an extended bout with mononucleosis. When he finally did return in the second half of last season, he attacked the ball with a vengeance, showing contact and power skills that were above and beyond what he displayed in the minors. He is currently blocked from a regular job, but his versatility could lead him to steady at-bats. Last year, he played all four infield positions, and three of Boston's infielders -- Adrian Gonzalez, Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis -- are coming off of surgeries. Lowrie could also displace shortstop Marco Scutaro at some point this year as well. |
| Is the Pirates' middle of the order as good as it looked late last year? | |
| | Pedro Alvarez, Jose Tabata and Neil Walker all arrived in the majors last season and all impressed in some capacity -- Alvarez with his late-season power surge, Tabata with his high contact rate, and Walker with ... well, both. All three have the potential to go a step further this year, but all three have lingering concerns that make them anything but certain breakouts -- Alvarez with his poor plate discipline, Tabata with his lack of development in the minors, and Walker with ... well, both. |
| Should owners be concerned about Dustin Pedroia's foot? | |
| | Pedroia was on his way to what could have been a career year last season when he fouled a pitch off his left foot in late June. He broke a bone, which ultimately required two disabled list stints and surgery. Pedroia has been working out at Boston's spring training facility and is expected to be ready for Grapefruit League action, but he has conceded that his foot still bothers him and that he will have to pace his workouts to accommodate his recovery. If he were 100 percent, Pedroia would clearly belong among the top three Fantasy second basemen, but his slow recovery leaves him as something of a question mark heading into the season. |
| Will the Phillies lineup be able to keep up with its pitching staff? | |
| | Yeah, the big story for the Phillies this offseason was their signing of Cliff Lee and how ridiculous their starting rotation is going to be and blah, blah, blah. But the more interesting angle for Fantasy owners is whether or not their offensive nucleus of Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard is on its way out. Fantasy owners are still treating all three as surefire, early-round studs even though all three lost 50 points on their slugging percentages and spent time on the DL last year at ages (32, 32 and 31) that seem appropriate for a decline. |
| Will Carlos Santana pick up where he left off before his knee injury? | |
| | Santana was red-hot upon upon getting his first major league call up with the Indians last year, batting .345 with four home runs and 15 RBI in the month of June. Hitting for power and average is what made Santana a highly-touted prospect during his rise as a minor leaguer, so Fantasy owners shouldn't have been surprised by his robust debut. His rookie campaign was cut short by a home plate collision that led to knee surgery. He is expected to be ready to participate in the full spring training exhibition schedule. If he can remain healthy, his track record suggests that he'll be knocking on the door of the catching elite soon. |
| Do the Rangers seriously want to move Neftali Feliz into the starting rotation? | |
| | In what sounds like a sequel to the Jonathan Papelbon saga, the Rangers went through all the trouble of transforming Feliz into a closer last year only to decide they want to try him in the starting rotation again. No one doubts Feliz has the stuff to start, but would an expected contender really give him a fair shot at the role, especially when its best alternative for ninth-inning duties is relative unknown Alexi Ogando? Feliz will matter in Fantasy either way, but you'd rather him keep doing what he already does as well as anyone. |
| How will Jayson Werth fare in his new surroundings? | |
| | Citizens Bank Ballpark has the reputation of being a notorious home run hitters' stadium, but according to the Bill James Handbook 2011, it's not much more skewed towards homers than Werth's new home, Nationals Park, is. Even with the move, Werth still has the potential to hit 30 homers or more, so the most important aspect of his Fantasy value should remain intact. With the Washington lineup not quite as stocked ast Philadelphia's, Werth could lose some RBI opportunities, and regardless of where he's playing, he'll be hard-pressed to hit 40-plus doubles again, given that his previous career high was 26. |
| What's up with Pablo Sandoval? | |
| | Is he a starter or not? Was his weight the problem last year, or did the rest of the league just catch up to him? Would the Giants really consider sending him to the minor leagues? Whatever questions emerged for the Round Mound of Pound when he disappeared from the starting lineup last postseason only got louder when general manager Brian Sabean ordered him to shape up or ship out this offseason. His workout program has reportedly gone well, but after last season's abomination, you can't help but wonder if his monster 2009 was too good to be true. |
| How long before the Mariners turn to Dustin Ackley and Michael Pineda? | |
| | Not only do Ackley and Pineda rank as Seattle's two best prospects overall, but they are probably the closest to being major league ready. Ackley had the stronger performance at Triple-A, but for the moment he is blocked at second base by recently-acquired Brendan Ryan. The defensive standout shouldn't keep Ackley in the minors for too long, though. Pineda was bitten by the home run bug in Triple-A, but long balls should be less of an issue at Safeco Field. The M's don't possess much pitching depth, so barring an awful spring, Pineda could be in the rotation to start the season. |
| Will Craig Kimbrel be able to hold off Jonny Venters for saves in Atlanta? | |
| | It seems like a no-brainer. Kimbrel was groomed as a closer, has the stuff of a closer, and got the first shot as the closer when Billy Wagner went down with an oblique injury during the playoffs. But new manager Fredi Gonzalez doesn't want to rule out hard-throwing lefty Jonny Venters, citing the Braves' past success with Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez as justification for a possible split role. Kimbrel's strikeout rate is Marmolian (yes, that's a word), but he won't live up to the hype if he's splitting saves. |
| Who are the odd men out in the Reds' rotation? | |
| | After Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez and Bronson Arroyo, nothing is assured in the Reds' rotation. The last two spots are up for grabs, and Travis Wood, Homer Bailey, Mike Leake, Matt Maloney and Sam LeCure all have a shot at claiming a job. Wood and Leake both impressed in their first major league seasons, and Bailey displayed much sharper command last year than in his previous stints in Cincy. Maloney and LeCure are long shots, but both are capable as well. |
| Will anyone in the Mets outfield matter in Fantasy? | |
| | Considering it features two former early-rounders and one of last year's notable breakouts, you'd think so, but nobody really knows what to expect from Jason Bay, Carlos Beltran and Angel Pagan going forward. Bay missed the second half of last season with a concussion and was hardly doing anything before then, Beltran hasn't looked the same since hurting his knee in 2009, and Pagan was never supposed to be a starter in the first place. Nobody seems willing to invest much in these three, but a healthy showing this spring -- both physically and statistically -- could change that. |
| How long before we see Domonic Brown? | |
| | Even with Jayson Werth out of the picture in Philadelphia, the right field job does not necessarily belong to top prospect Brown. The Phillies are considering handing the job to either Ben Francisco or John Mayberry, which would probably land Brown back in Triple-A. Even if the 23-year-old slugger makes the team out of spring training, he would likely get paired with either Francisco or Mayberry, both righties, in a platoon situation. That would give him the larger share of at-bats, though sitting against lefty pitchers would limit his Fantasy value. |
| Do the Mets really want Francisco Rodriguez as their closer? | |
| | The Mets have done their best to appear supportive since finding out they couldn't void the final two years of K-Rod's contract, acting as if he'll be their closer this year. But his altercation with his girlfriend's father outside the clubhouse last August was as disturbing as it was destructive to his pitching hand, which required season-ending surgery. Lost in all the commotion was the fact Rodriguez got back to pitching like an elite reliever last year, but it won't matter if the Mets don't let him get the 55 appearances he needs for his 2012 option to vest. |
| How much playing time will Mike Napoli get with the Rangers? | |
| | The number of plate appearances Napoli gets will depend somewhat on whether Michael Young remains in Texas, as Young is currently penciled in as the everyday designated hitter. However, even if Young sticks around, Napoli could get around 400 at-bats due to his versatility. He can platoon with left-handed Mitch Moreland at first base and split the catching duties with Yorvit Torrealba. Because of his home-run power and the scarcity of true everyday catchers, Napoli can be a Fantasy force without getting daily starts, as he finished sixth in Fantasy points among catchers in 2010 with just 453 at-bats. |
| When will the floodgates open for the Royals? | |
| | For as little as the Royals have in the majors, their minor-league system is overflowing with talent. They're going to go from very bad to very good very fast, and Fantasy owners can't help but want a piece of the action. But none of the Royals prospects has a clear timetable for reaching the majors. Mike Moustakas figures to arrive this year, but when? And will Eric Hosmer follow? What about future aces Mike Montgomery, Danny Duffy, John Lamb and Chris Dwyer? The answers depend on how cautiously the Royals approach what looks like a can't-miss scenario. |
| Is J.J. Putz ready to pick up where he left off as a top closer? | |
| | Closing out games is a different animal than setting up, but if Putz's stats as a set-up reliever are any indication, he could be ready to regain his dominant form from four years ago. The former Mariners' closer will get another chance at ninth-inning glory with the Diamondbacks this year. Last season with the White Sox, Putz struck out 65 batters in 54 innings with a 2.83 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 14 holds. While those are some spiffy stats, he did blow four of the seven save opportunities given to him. |
| How will the Yankees fill out their starting rotation? | |
| | Anytime the Yankees have an opening in their starting rotation, it's a competition worth monitoring in Fantasy because -- let's face it -- the winner doesn't even have to be good to make a legitimate contribution. With that lineup and supporting cast, he could have an ERA over 5.00 and still win 12-15 games. Unfortunately, the candidates for the final two spots all fit that description. Ivan Nova has some potential, but retreads like Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon show just how desperate the Yankees have become. If you can't get excited about them, you have to think a trade is coming. |
| Will moving to the National League improve Zack Greinke's and Shaun Marcum's numbers? | |
| | In 2010, the ERA for the NL as a whole was 4.02, only a touch lower than the AL mark of 4.14. With the Brewers importing Greinke and Marcum to the senior circuit to head up their starting rotation, both pitchers would appear to get at least a slight boost to their stats, now that they won't have to face designated hitters for their intra-league games. Greinke may have been primed for a rebound, even if he had stayed in Kansas City, as he appeared to have some bad luck with stranding baserunners. |
| How will the Rays fill their vacancy at first base? | |
| | For all the Rays lost this offseason, they do have at least one promising replacement in Matt Joyce, whose combination of power and patience could make him a Fantasy mainstay. Unfortunately, Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez stand in his way. That could change if Dan Johnson flops in his latest opportunity to secure a starting job, handing first base over to right fielder Ben Zobrist. Of course, Johnson has a pretty good combination of power and patience himself, so if he hits for a high enough average to remain in the lineup, he'll be the surprise contributor instead of Joyce. |
| Who is Tsuyoshi Nishioka? | |
| | Nishioka is a 26-year-old middle infielder who has played for eight years in the Japanese Pacific League and also appeared in the 2006 World Baseball Classic for Japan. The Twins signed him to a three-year, $9.25 million deal in December, and he is expected to be their starting second baseman, though he can also play shortstop. Last season, he won a league batting title with a .346 average, and he also has two stolen base titles to his credit. He should help Fantasy owners with batting average and steals, though stats from the Japanese leagues don't always translate well to the majors. |
| Will we see Jesus Montero this year? | |
| | Everything seemed to be lining up for Montero at the beginning of the offseason. The Yankees had committed to moving Jorge Posada to DH, which seemed as much an initiative to get their top prospect in the lineup as an effort to preserve their aging veteran's health. But then they made the silly decision to sign Russell Martin, a player whose reputation continues to outlive his production. And so Montero, the prospect rated higher than both Buster Posey and Carlos Santana last year, remains stuck at Triple-A, needing a trade or injury to get out of Fantasy purgatory. |
| Will the Orioles actually provide decent pitching options for owners? | |
| | Last season, the O's had the second-highest team ERA in the American League with a 4.59 mark, but with five highly-touted young pitchers (Brian Matusz, Brad Bergesen, Jake Arrieta, Chris Tillman and Zach Britton) on the rise, they are as poised as any staff for significant improvement. And that was the case even before they signed free agent Justin Duchscherer, who has a 3.01 ERA in 32 career starts. Baltimore has the luxury of multiple options at closer as well, as their bullpen boasts three relievers -- Koji Uehara, Kevin Gregg and Michael Gonzalez -- who have had prior success in the ninth-inning role. |
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