2011 Draft Prep: Identifying the most consistent hitters
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Every year, Fantasy owners have to decide how to handle inconsistent players. Hitters like Carlos Pena and Chone Figgins are tough to evaluate, because we know that they have proven to be highly valuable Fantasy performers in the past, yet we also know that both are coming off of bad seasons.
While we may be tempted to dismiss 2010 as just an off year for either player, a deeper look into their stats shows that each has exhibited a longer-term pattern of inconsistency. While Pena and Figgins can entice us with their upside, their histories show that owning them in Fantasy is not for the faint of heart.
Some owners like the high ceiling that often comes with risk, while others prefer the safer, steadier route. The Hitting Consistency Comparison tool below offers owners a way to gauge which batters have been the steadiest over the last four seasons. It includes every major league hitter who has had at least 300 at-bats in each season since 2007. (While they don't offer enough data to be worth including in this tool, we'll take a look at a handful of key players who have arrived since 2008 in an upcoming column.) Players are ranked according to their spread -- or difference between their best and worst seasons -- in three statistical categories: batting average, Isolated Power and Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/ 27). By separating out the rate at which players get hits (batting average) and the rate at which they get extra bases (Isolated Power), we can compare players who have consistent batting average trends and inconsistent power trends (e.g., Jose Bautista, Raul Ibanez) with those who have the opposite tendencies (e.g., Aramis Ramirez, Nick Swisher). By including RC/27 as a catch-all performance metric, we can see which players have been the most and least consistent overall.
As my colleague Scott White pointed out in his recent column on Rotisserie strategies, inconsistency can make it risky to rely on players whose strong suit is batting average. The average four-year spread among the players in our pool is 46 points, so even the best hitters can be expected to drop significantly below their norms every few years. Likewise, some of the worst hitters are capable of raising their average by 30 or 40 points or more in a given season (John Buck, anyone?).
Given the regularity of large swings in batting average, those batters who produce roughly the same batting average with metronomic consistency are rare finds for Roto owners. So while it may be hard to know how much power to expect from Delmon Young or Nick Markakis this year, we can be confident that both should hit close to their .290s norms, as they have the two smallest batting average spreads among our pool.
Similarly, owners may gravitate towards players like Adam Dunn, Torii Hunter and Shane Victorino. While none are elite talents, few players can deliver extra-base power as consistently as this trio has.
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By measuring consistency using a player's four-year spread, it's easy to spot the most reliable hitters, as it is not a common feat to put up four consecutive years of similar numbers. However, not all of the larger spreads were created equal. Both Jason Bartlett and Aramis Ramirez have larger-than- average spreads for batting average and RC/27, but Bartlett has been much less consistent in general. The Padres' new shortstop has been all over the map with his stats, while Ramirez has been largely consistent, save for his down 2010 season. To see how extensive a player's inconsistency really is, click on the player's name in the graph, and four-year trend lines for his batting average and Isolated Power will show up in a separate window.
With inconsistency being a fact of life for most hitters, it would be easy to walk into your next draft just accepting that risk is a necessary part of assembling a Fantasy team. However, risk can be minimized if you can identify the players with the steadiest track records. Ultimately, you may want to sacrifice consistency for upside, but with the Hitting Consistency Comparison tool, at least you can judge exactly what your tradeoffs are and which players represent the greatest risks.
Have a question or a comment? Send them to DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com . Be sure to put Hitting Consistency Comparison in the subject field.
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| Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James GO/AO -- Ground out-fly out ratio GB/FB -- Ground ball-fly ball ratio Batting Average per Balls in Play (BABIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30% Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks) Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats |
