2011 Draft Prep: Closing arguments for closers
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For the most part, position scarcity rules the day at Fantasy draft time.
So far this season, Hanley Ramirez, Troy Tulowitzki and Evan Longoria are all being drafted as first rounders and often among the top five players overall, both in Head-to-Head and Rotisserie formats. This is the case, even though none ranks among the top five in Fantasy Points, and only Ramirez projects to finish among the top five players in 5x5 value. All three have weak pools of Fantasy producers at their positions to thank for their elevated status on Draft Day.
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At face value, it may appear that top closers should hold a similar level of clout in the draft room. Just as Ramirez, Tulowitzki and Longoria have become household names, at least among fans of baseball and Fantasy, many of the top closers have established name recognition. The word "closer" is practically synonymous with the names Rivera, Papelbon and Wilson. For good reason, these three have achieved a notoriety at their position that may be unmatched by the top players at most other positions. (Yes, I'm hedging here because of a certain pair of sluggers named Albert and Miguel.)
Before we look at the case for a closing elite, let's go back to last season and see what it took for a closer to be worthy of a No. 1 reliever slot in a standard 12-team mixed league. The 12th-ranked closer was Leo Nunez, who finished with 345.5 Fantasy points. We could argue that he represents the last of the closers you could trust as your top Fantasy reliever, though Kevin Gregg, Ryan Franklin and John Axford all finished right behind him with at least 340 Fantasy points. All told then, there were 15 closers who held their own as No. 1 relievers in Fantasy.
How many closers have registered at least 340 Fantasy points in each of the last three years? Exactly four: our Big Three of Rivera, Papelbon and Wilson, plus Francisco Cordero. And while Cordero has been steady, he has consistently been on the low end of the top relief options. In fact, none of these four have been among the top eight closers in each of the last three years.
In short, it's tough to be a top-tier closer for anything more than back-to-back years. Even as recently as 2009, Brian Wilson was closer to the pack of low-end No. 1 relievers than the elite. Joe Nathan, the top Head-to-Head reliever in '09, missed the 2010 season with Tommy John surgery, while second- ranked Jonathan Broxton fell into mediocrity. Injuries, inconsistency and competition from other closer candidates frequently wreak havoc with the Fantasy value of incumbent closers, even the best ones.
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What is true for Head-to-Head formats is nearly as true for Rotisserie. In recent seasons, 30 saves has been enough to get a reliever into or near the top 12 closers in that category, though 40 saves was the more typical total for elites. A total of seven closers have mustered 30 saves in each of the three previous seasons, but only three -- Wilson, Cordero and Papelbon -- made the 40-plus club each time. While this trio constitutes a saves elite, they can't really be called a Rotisserie elite, as each has had at least one year out of the last three in which he has finished outside of the top eight relievers in overall 5x5 value.
The interactive graph below not only shows how closers have fluctuated in their Fantasy point and save totals, but it also shows where we think they stand for the coming season. It includes all active closers and their season Fantasy point and save totals for each year since 2008 in which they have earned at least 10 saves. They are ranked in the graph according to their projected Fantasy point total for 2011, though you can view and re-sort the pitchers by any combination of years between 2008 and 2011. To re-sort by Fantasy points or saves for any of these years, highlight either "FPTS" or "S" at the bottom of the graph, and then click on the re-sort icon beneath the graph (the second icon from the left) and select either "Descending" or "Ascending."
Based on his recent trend data, as shown in the graph, Wilson looks like a safe bet to be a top closer again, but Rivera, Papelbon and Cordero are riskier choices. Neftali Feliz, Heath Bell, Carlos Marmol, J.J. Putz and Joakim Soria are the other closers who are most poised to challenge Wilson for reliever supremacy in Fantasy. Wilson, Feliz and Bell are certainly a cut above the rest of the closer options, and one of these three is likely to be the first reliever off the board in most drafts. In fact, they are the current top three in average draft position -- in that order -- in Head-to-Head leagues, and they rank first, second and fifth, respectively, in Rotisserie leagues.
With Wilson typically coming off the board between the fifth and seventh rounds, there could be a temptation to start or participate in a closer run shortly thereafter. Bear in mind, though, that even the most reliable closers have their risks. Feliz could be converted into a starter at any time, and once he joins the rotation, you can kiss those saves goodbye. Marmol is an elite option only as long as he posts near-record strikeout rates, and it remains to be seen if he can be as unhittable as he was last year. Putz has past success as a closer, but despite his strong numbers as a set-up man in 2010, it has been four years since we have seen him thrive in the ninth inning. Aside from Wilson, Bell and Soria have the strongest track records in their favor, but even Soria had a recent dip in his Fantasy value when, in 2009, the Royals provided him with just 33 save chances.
While reputations and projections may suggest that there is a closer elite worth reaching for on Draft Day, the variability that is inherent in the closer's role makes it risky to go after a closer too soon. If the frequent shifting of pitchers in and out of the top ranks in recent years doesn't discourage you from aggressively targeting a closer, the uncertainty surrounding many of this year's best closer candidates should. It would be ideal to wind up with Wilson or Bell, but if you miss out on either of them, you may not be substantially worse off if you draft a trusted veteran like Rivera or Papelbon or an up-and-comer like John Axford or Chris Perez, should you fail to roster one of the higher-ranked closers.
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| Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James GO/AO -- Ground out-fly out ratio GB/FB -- Ground ball-fly ball ratio Batting Average per Balls in Play (BABIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30% Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks) Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats |
