2011 Draft Prep: Undervalued and underrated
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Perception has a way of policing itself.
As soon as someone tries to take advantage of it by touting players as "sleepers" or "bargains," they cease to be sleepers and bargains. The perception on them changes with the title, and their stock rises to an appropriate level.
But even now, with draft season well under way, you'll find a few holes in perception that just aren't going away.
The Undervalued and Underrated are, quite simply, players valued or rated at levels they'll most likely exceed, making them the ones to target when you reach the point in the draft when they typically go off the board. Any earlier and they'll no longer be worth it. Any later and they'll no longer be available.
This list is hardly all-inclusive -- among its omissions are the late-rounders, who get their own separate piece -- but any of the 12 players listed here could be the one that sets your team apart in the standings. That is, until perception changes again.
Better get to reading.
Note: The numbers in parentheses reflect current average draft position on CBSSports.com, assuming a 12-team league.
Brett Gardner, OF, Yankees (Roto: Rd. 8, H2H: Rd. 9)
Maybe this seems like a stretch to you. Maybe Round 8 sounds about right for a pure speedster.
But that line of thinking is exactly why Gardner belongs on this list.
He's in a completely different class from the Michael Bourns and Nyjer Morgans of the world. He's not just an athlete disguised as a baseball player; he's what a leadoff hitter was designed to be -- a player who not only takes the extra base but gets on base often enough for it to be a legitimate concern.
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You want a comparison? Try Kenny Lofton.
It's not as ridiculous as it sounds. Over the first three months last season, Gardner hit .321 with a .403 on-base percentage. During Lofton's six-year run as an All-Star from 1994 to 1999, he hit .314 with a .387 on-base percentage.
And he was one of the top outfielders in Fantasy.
Granted, Gardner didn't finish the year with such high numbers, hitting .232 with a .363 on-base percentage over the final three months, but that's about the time his wrist began to bother him. And when your primary job is to create leverage with your wrists, that's kind of a problem. But don't take my word for it.
"His wrist was so bad, a lot of players probably wouldn't have played through it, but he did," hitting coach Kevin Long told the New York Daily News earlier this spring. "To me, you can throw the second-half numbers out the door. He wasn't even close to healthy."
Despite the second-half slump, Gardner still managed to rank 27th among outfielders in standard Head-to-Head scoring last year -- and that was with him batting ninth most of the year. Now that the Yankees are actually talking about batting him leadoff, what's next? Top 15? Top 10, even? Hey, don't count him out. Batting in front of Derek Jeter, Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez and Robinson Cano is a perfect recipe for a league-leading number of runs scored.
Jay Bruce, OF, Reds (Roto: Rd. 7, H2H: Rd. 10)
Whatever noise Bruce made late last season was muted by the bells and whistles of football season, which breaks in like a police chase every August and forces even the most committed Fantasy Baseball owners to watch.
But that tree was falling, wherever you were, and those who were around to hear it have a hard time describing it today.
Granted, you can look at Bruce's numbers and recognize he hit a career-high 25 home runs last year, but the final tally doesn't tell the full extent of his breakout.
Maybe this will: Bruce entered the month of August with only 10 home runs.
From Aug. 18 to Oct. 3 -- a period of about six weeks -- he hit 14 homers with a 1.355 OPS. And oh yeah, he missed two of those weeks with a strained oblique.
A power surge like that doesn't happen by accident, and considering Bruce's pedigree as a better prospect than even Evan Longoria in 2008, you have no reason to think this one was.
All you need to do is remind yourself he broke in at the tender age of 21, before his skills had a chance to fully develop, to remember he broke his wrist in 2009, slowing down his ascent, or to watch last year's footage of him buddying up to newcomer Jim Edmonds -- a player who, in his prime, put up numbers much like the ones expected of Bruce -- to realize what happened here. It all clicked. Bruce finally got the perfect combination of experience, health and tutelage to maximize his talents and capitalize on his potential.
Of course, he didn't do it over a full season, which may be reason enough not to reach for him before the middle rounds. But anyone who saw him play over those final six weeks would have a hard time believing he won't hit 40 homers this year.
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And at a time when pitching is back on the rise and home-run totals are down across the league, that's nothing short of early-round production.
Colby Lewis, SP, Rangers (Roto: Rd. 12, H2H: Rd. 8)
Lewis was the Susan Boyle of starting pitchers last year. When the Rangers signed him to a two-year deal out of Japan and immediately penciled him into their starting rotation, everyone snickered because they saw him as the failed prospect who compiled a 6.71 in parts of six big-league seasons.
Yeah, he shut them up pretty quickly.
But the analogy isn't complete because nobody's rushing out to buy Lewis' album now. He's not exactly ignored in Fantasy, but he's seen more as an oddity than the talented player he is.
Perhaps he'd get more credit if he didn't finish with a losing record, which was fueled in part by an 0-7 stretch early in the second half, but that shouldn't be the number that defines him.
Face the facts, friends: His 8.8 strikeouts per nine innings were the 11th-most among starting pitchers last year, and his 1.19 WHIP was the 26th-best, ahead of legitimate early-rounders like CC Sabathia, Jon Lester and David Price.
Those are the numbers he can actually control. The rest -- the win-loss record and, to a certain extent, the ERA -- are subject to defensive positioning and run support and a bunch of other factors that more or less boil down to luck. And it's not like the defending AL champions don't provide him with a favorable supporting cast.
He's already pitching 200 innings. He's already walking less than three batters per nine innings. Other than winning games, he's already doing everything you'd ask of an ace.
Which means what? He's an ace?
Well, he's not far off. If you like to wait until the middle rounds to begin assembling your pitching staff, he's one of the better options you could get.
Geovany Soto, C, Cubs (Roto: Rd. 9, H2H: Rd. 11)
You'd think at a position as weak as catcher, where Fantasy owners are constantly reaching for players who offer some small hope of significant Fantasy production, a former Rookie of the Year like Soto wouldn't slip through the cracks.
But he does. In fact, in Head-to-Head leagues, he's actually getting drafted after Matt Wieters, who has yet to produce an .800 OPS in two big-league seasons.
In contrast, Soto has averaged an .826 OPS over his three big-league seasons and led all catchers with an .890 OPS last year. And given his skill set, that's probably not a one-time deal. He may have yet to match the 23 homers from his rookie season, but he has made strides in other areas -- specifically, his plate discipline. His .393 on-base percentage last year was the highest for any NL catcher since Jason Kendall posted a .399 mark in 2004.
So why the widespread disregard? It's mostly a matter of perception. Fantasy owners tend to lump last season with Soto's disappointing sophomore season of 2009 even though it was actually a step up from his breakthrough rookie season of 2008.
At least, that's what the percentages say. The totals were limited by a lack of at-bats that had less to do with injuries and more to do with former manager Lou Piniella.
Piniella, for whatever reason, didn't like Soto. He was continually replacing him with Koyie Hill, citing better defense, but there's a difference between valuing defense and just being stubborn. Hill had a .552 OPS last season, which would have run him out of the league if he played any position other than catcher.
But those concerns are over for Soto. Piniella is gone, and new manager Mike Quade is a believer, making Soto the unquestioned starter after taking over in mid-August.
You can dismiss Soto as a one-year wonder if you want, but you're ignoring a big part of the story and forgoing an elite option at a weak position in the process.
Brett Myers, SP, Astros (Roto: Rd. 15, H2H: Rd. 10):
I seem to recall Myers coming over to Houston last year and reestablishing himself as a top Fantasy option by achieving career bests in ERA, innings pitched and walk rate. I also remember him setting a new standard for consistency by pitching six innings or more and allowing four earned runs or fewer in 30 of his first 31 starts.
Is this sounding familiar to anyone else? Did it really happen, or did I dream the whole thing?
I can't tell by where Myers is going off the board this year. He's a complete afterthought, getting drafted even later than he did coming off a 2008 season when he went 10-13 with a 4.55 ERA.
I've seen enough drafts to know that regardless of the format or the level of competition, you won't find a Fantasy owner willing to give Myers the benefit of the doubt. And it's not like he deserved much doubt to begin with. This isn't some washed-up journeyman who finally struck the right combination of luck and supporting cast to make a relevant Fantasy contribution. This is a former top prospect, one of the biggest up-and-comers at the position before the Phillies messed with his head by moving him to the bullpen in 2007. Have we become so pessimistic as a group that we can't accept what was always expected from an obviously talented pitcher at an age (29) when a breakout is still reasonable?
Not only is it depressing; it's downright irresponsible. Myers may not have top-10 potential, but he's not as unlikely to repeat his numbers from last year, when he ranked 15th in standard Head-to-Head leagues, as most people think. If you can draft him as your third or fourth starting pitcher, you may end up with one of the best pitching staffs in the league.
Jose Tabata, OF, Pirates (Roto: Rd. 15, H2H: Rd. 18)
Tabata certainly didn't have a bad rookie season. He was relevant in stolen bases and showed an uncanny knack for making contact by hitting .299 as a 22-year-old.
But his numbers weren't impressive enough to reach out and slap you in the face. In the late rounds on Draft Day, you might just ho-hum them and move on.
Oh-ho-ho-no you don't.
The best is yet to come for this project of a prospect. Contrary to what he may have shown with his four homers in 405 at-bats last year or his 29 homers in 1,866 minor-league at-bats, he has legitimate power potential.
His general manager says it, and the scouts have long contended it. Even the man himself is a believer.
"This year," an obviously beefed-up Tabata told the Pittsbugh Tribune-Review in January, "my idea is to hit more home runs."
Who says that? Or, more relevant for our purposes, who says that and then goes out and hits only four or five homers again? He wouldn't be so bold if he didn't have some way to back it up.
"The power is there," Tabata continued. "I know it is. The ball was jumping off my bat in winter ball."
The line between a gap hitter and a home-run threat is one often crossed when a player reaches his physical peak. And the fact of the matter is Tabata doesn't have to become a 25-homer guy all of a sudden to shoot up the Fantasy rankings. Even 12-15 homers would make his other numbers pop enough to move him close to elite territory. That's what happened to Shane Victorino a few years ago.
Even if he doesn't hit more homers, you could argue Tabata is a bargain as an above-average source of batting average, runs scored and stolen bases. What do you have to lose by drafting him as your fourth outfielder?
Here's a quick look at a few other players currently undervalued on Draft Day:
Daniel Hudson, SP, Diamondbacks (Roto: Rd. 11, H2H: Rd. 8): Everything about Hudson's performance after coming over from the White Sox last season screams ace, from him pitching seven innings or more in nine of 11 starts to him issuing two walks or fewer in 11 of 11 to him compiling a mid-90s Greg Maddux-like 1.69 ERA and 0.84 WHIP. But Fantasy owners were mostly unimpressed. Maybe you could point to small sample size as reason not to buy into him, but it's not like he was a September callup. He went one-third of a season without the slightest regression to the mean or hint of future trouble. Clearly, the former top prospect found his comfort zone with an organization ready to believe in him. Anyone who doesn't follow the Diamondbacks' lead is missing out.
Kelly Johnson, 2B, Diamondbacks (Roto: Rd. 10, H2H: Rd. 15): Johnson was the fourth-highest scoring second baseman in Head-to-Head leagues last year. He's the 13th-highest drafted second baseman now. Maybe Fantasy owners remember him burning them in past years or feel like he burned them last year when he couldn't maintain his ridiculous pace from April. Whatever the reason, they treat his breakout 2010 with all the disregard of a Steve Zahn movie. Johnson may never be Mr. Consistency, but in a year when so many of the top second basemen have injury concerns, he's one of the safest options at the position. If for some reason you get too caught up in other positions to target a second baseman early, Johnson is the ultimate fallback option in the middle-to-late rounds.
Chone Figgins, 2B, Mariners (Roto: Rd. 12, H2H: Rd. 17): Figgins followed up a .267 performance in 2006 by hitting .330 in 2007 and a .276 performance in 2008 by hitting .298 in 2009. So why, after he hit .259 last season, are Fantasy owners ready to dismiss him as washed up? He's running as much as ever and has a better batting eye now than he did in his prime. With a correction in batting average -- which, by the way, was .322 in September -- he could get back to doing what he did in 2009, when he scored more points than Dan Uggla did last year. Considering he'll also be eligible at third base within the first week, he's going to start for someone in your league. Why not you?
Adam Lind, DH, Blue Jays (Roto: Rd. 14, H2H: Rd. 16): So that's the way we're going to approach Lind now? Just pretend his breakout 2009 season, when he was one of only four players to hit .300 with 35 homers and 100 RBI, never happened? I'll admit it was probably too much too fast, but it wasn't an aberration for Lind based on his pedigree. The guy hit .318 over his minor-league career. The Blue Jays think their projected first baseman will benefit from his move back to the field, where he won't have to obsess over every at-bat like he did at DH, but he'd be worth the gamble regardless. He's falling to where he couldn't possibly hurt you, and he may well give you early-round production.
Chris Perez, RP, Indians (Roto: Rd. 13, H2H: Rd. 18): Fantasy owners tend to dismiss Perez because he pitches for one of the worst teams in baseball and accumulated only 23 saves last year. But over his final 33 appearances, which began about the time he took over for the departed Kerry Wood, he was arguably the most dominant closer in baseball, compiling a 0.53 ERA with 17 saves and more than a strikeout per inning. Perez was groomed for the role from the time the Cardinals drafted him 42nd overall in 2006, so his quick transition to it shouldn't come as a surprise. And as Joakim Soria has demonstrated time and time again, a closer doesn't have to pitch for a good team to rank among the top five Fantasy options.
Ike Davis, 1B, Mets (Roto: Rd. 15, H2H: Rd. 19:) Davis was written off as another casualty of the Mets' 2010 season when he couldn't save the franchise immediately upon his arrival, but that doesn't mean he was a disappointment. True, his 19 homers weren't anything special for a first baseman, but he did draw 72 walks, which tied for 29th-most in baseball. As an on-base threat, he doesn't necessarily have to hit 25-30 home runs to make an impression in Fantasy, though he should eventually hit that many. Hard to imagine why a player with limited upside like Gaby Sanchez or one clearly past his prime like Carlos Lee would go off the board before him.
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