2011 Draft Prep: Overvalued and Overrated
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I'm a meanie. Perhaps you haven't heard.
I like to say things about the players people like. Mean things.
It's happening right now in this list of players I consider overrated on Draft Day. I guarantee you won't like what you see. They wouldn't be overrated if people didn't consider them attractive options, and no doubt, all have something to offer. But all have enough drawbacks that they're more likely to disappoint than not.
It's for the good of your Fantasy team, and doesn't that benefit us both? True, my criticism here could cause them to fall to a point when they're no longer overrated, but by drafting them when they normally come off the board, you're only putting yourself at unnecessary risk.
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Besides, no one listens to me anyway.
Note: The numbers in parentheses reflect current average draft position on CBSSports.com, assuming a 12-team league.
Alex Rodriguez, 3B, Yankees (Roto: Rd. 2, H2H: Rd. 2)
Yes, we've reached this point with this player.
After years of reminding Fantasy owners that it's all about the numbers and that, for all his unsavory qualities, A-Rod remains one of the best, if not the best, player in Fantasy, I now have to vilify him because of -- you guessed it -- the numbers.
Should be easy enough, right?
But old habits die hard. A-Rod's numbers weren't bad enough to slap everyone across the face and force them to take notice -- especially since he partially redeemed himself with a hot September in which he hit nine homers with a .975 OPS -- but they were more than a slight departure from the elite numbers he's put up over the course of his career.
His .270 batting average was his lowest ever. So was his .341 on-base percentage. His .847 OPS was his lowest since his age-21 season. Ditto his .506 slugging percentage. He hit only 30 homers for the second straight year after hitting at least 35 each of the previous 11. He scored fewer than 80 runs for the second straight year after scoring at least 100 each of the previous 13.
And the most telling sign? Pitchers weren't afraid of him anymore, which explains why he drew only 59 walks after averaging 85 over his previous 10 seasons.
The Yankees can say what they want about him rededicating himself by slimming down or whatever else, but no matter what work he puts in off the field, he can't turn back the clock. He's 35, and it shows.
Of course, those numbers, assuming they stay put, aren't terrible, and even a minor resurgence isn't outside the realm of possibility, but with increased age comes heightened injury risk. Rodriguez has played less than 140 games each of the last three seasons, meaning he not only has the potential to disappoint statistically, but he might not even stay in the lineup. Does that sound like a second-round pick to you?
A-Rod is still one of the best options at a relatively weak position, but he's hanging by a thread.
Matt Kemp, OF, Dodgers (Roto: Rd. 3, H2H: Rd. 6)
Wait a second. Didn't we go through this last year, when Kemp was a consensus first-rounder who didn't finish among the top 25 outfielders in either Rotisserie or Head-to-Head?
Yeah, but apparently people didn't learn their lesson then because they still include him among the game's elite now.
Folks, the outlook on him has changed. His first-round status last year depended on his ability to hit .290 or better and steal 30-plus bases, like he did in 2008 and 2009, but that's not who he is. His regression in both categories last year put him closer to his most-likely scenario than anything we saw from him during the previous two years.
What makes me so sure? Hey, you have to weigh the negatives with the positives. Kemp has averaged 154 strikeouts over the last three seasons, showing a poor contract rate that significantly reduces his chances of hitting .290. Of the 11 players who struck out that many times last year, only one -- rookie Austin Jackson -- hit better than .290, and the combined batting average for the 11 was .254. Maybe Kemp won't hit .249 again, but he profiles as something like a .260 hitter.
As for his work on the base paths, Kemp was caught stealing nearly as many times (15) as he was successful (19) -- a percentage that makes the risk not worth the reward for the Dodgers. If they can't trust him to succeed, they'll stop sending him. And even if they can trust him, they might stop sending him anyway just because he's such an important part of the lineup. The same thing happened to players like Sammy Sosa, Andruw Jones and Vladimir Guerrero at similar points in their careers.
Remove the 30 steals from the equation, and Kemp is little more than a .260 hitter with power, which makes him something like a middle-rounder in Fantasy. Shoot, he doesn't have much to set him apart from Vernon Wells.
Chris Carpenter, SP, Cardinals (Roto: Rd. 5, H2H: Rd. 4)
It's not any one thing with Carpenter but a combination of frightening factors that make him potentially one of this year's biggest disappointments.
People regard him as safe and reliable when he's anything but, having overcome two Tommy John surgeries and a torn labrum in his shoulder over the course of his career. So the fact he threw 235 innings last year -- the second-most of his career -- should immediately set off alarms, especially at an age (36 in April) when injuries are more common, as his hamstring trouble early this spring shows.
And that age is concerning for other reasons. It signifies Carpenter is clearly past his prime, putting him at risk for a statistical drop-off sooner rather than later. He already hasn't been quite as dominant since returning from his second Tommy John surgery, striking out less than seven batters per nine innings each of the last two seasons.
Kind of puts that 5.34 ERA over his final five starts last year in perspective, doesn't it? Maybe it was a sign of things to come.
Or maybe not. Maybe Carpenter will put up the same numbers as always and make this argument look like nothing more than a bunch of hot air. But at a time when the baseball landscape is changing and frontline pitching is becoming more and more plentiful, why would you settle for a player with all the concerns of Carpenter when you could have one who not only offers more strikeout potential but also the upside to improve, such as David Price, Jered Weaver, Dan Haren or Mat Latos? It doesn't make sense to me.
And if you can look past the big name and weigh all the pros and cons for each player, it shouldn't to you either.
Ichiro Suzuki, OF, Mariners (Roto: Rd. 4, H2H: Rd. 7)
Since breaking into the big leagues in 2001, Ichiro's uniquely specialized skill set has made him an early-rounder in Fantasy. Every year, you know he's going to compete for a batting title and steal a relevant number of bases. Few players offer such assurances.
If you remove even one of those assurances, he's suddenly just another guy. His well above-average performance in those two categories is the only thing keeping him above the threshold. Anything less, and the whole house of cards comes tumbling down.
Unfortunately, the more above-average a performance is, the harder it is to sustain. The fact Ichiro hasn't had any real lapses over the years is a minor miracle in and of itself. And now that he's well past his prime and at an age (37) when most players are considering retirement, a regression of some sort seems inevitable. So are we seeing signs?
Well, for starters, Ichiro struck out a career-high 86 times last year. That would be an accomplishment for most players, but for one whose entire Fantasy worth depends on his unprecedented bat control, it's a discouraging development. His slugging percentage was also below .400 for the second time in three seasons after seven straight seasons of a .416 mark or better. Granted, no one ever drafted Ichiro for his power potential, but a loss of strength would affect his projected numbers across the board.
He's also only two years removed from a 26-steal season that made him barely significant in the category. True, he rebounded with 42 last year, but the one-year blip is reason enough to believe he's slowing down. How could he not at his age?
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The changes are subtle, but the decline doesn't have to be anything significant to break the foundation of Ichiro's Fantasy value, causing him to collapse. He simply has too far to fall and has been defying the odds for too long for you to take a chance on him so early.
Yovani Gallardo, SP, Brewers (Roto: Rd. 7, H2H: Rd. 5)
When Gallardo and Tim Lincecum broke into the big leagues in 2007, the biggest question surrounding them was who would win the first Cy Young award.
But while Lincecum immediately set himself apart by, you know, progressing, Gallardo kind of ... didn't.
And he still hasn't. Granted, a knee injury in 2008 set him back, making his shaky 2009 season a little easier to explain. But after a 2010 season in which he regressed in just about every statistical category, you have to ask yourself why he's still such a big deal.
Clearly, Gallardo has the talent, dangling the carrot in front of Fantasy owners with nearly 10 strikeouts per nine innings each of the last two years. But it's little more than a tease. He's stuck in the same rut that sidetracked many a young hurler before him and forever kept Scott Kazmir on the outside looking in.
Whether by walking too many batters or trying to strike out more than necessary, Gallardo is throwing too many pitches, and it's affecting more than his WHIP, which ranked a miserable 66th among the 92 starting pitchers who qualified for the ERA title last year (behind Barry Zito and Livan Hernandez, among others). To be a legitimate frontline starter, Gallardo needs to throw at least 200 innings. He hasn't even progressed to 190.
True, his problem is a relatively straightforward one that could change from one year to the next, but given the influx of talent at starting pitcher over the last couple years, his potential isn't nearly as enticing as it once was.
Max Scherzer has similar upside to Gallardo and has shown more progress to this point, as has Phil Hughes, Brett Anderson and countless others drafted behind the Brewers right-hander.
For as early as he goes off the board, Gallardo should offer far more assurances than he does. He's a middle-round sleeper treated like a surefire ace.
Elvis Andrus, SS, Rangers (Roto: Rd. 7, H2H: Rd. 8)
Eighteen.
It's neither the age the 22-year-old Andrus broke into the big leagues nor the number of errors he committed during a standout defensive season.
It's the total number of extra-base hits he had -- as in doubles, triples and home runs combined -- for all of 2010.
You'd think a player like that would get buried in the rankings. You'd think no one would touch him except as an act of desperation in the later rounds. You'd think.
But Andrus is more or less an early-rounder, drafted on the same level as proven ace Roy Oswalt and five-category threat Alex Rios.
Granted, a lack of power isn't the only quality that defines him. He's a 30-steal guy who has at times shown a knack for getting on base. But he's still more potential than results at this point in his career, slumping to a .247 batting average and a .592 OPS after the All-Star break last year.
Andrus is one of the many reaches at shortstop on Draft Day that reveal just how shallow the position has become. Fantasy owners are so desperate for the next great thing that they go crazy over anyone with any measure of upside.
Chances are even if Andrus meets the full extent of his potential this year, hitting over .300 with 40-plus stolen bases, he won't rank among the position's elite. His lack of power won't let him.
So what do you have to gain by selecting him so early? Regardless of whether or not he's one of the better young shortstops in the game, he'll need a best-case scenario to live up to his average draft position.
And a best-case scenario seems unlikely given his youth.
Here's a quick look at a few other players currently overvalued on Draft Day:
Nelson Cruz, OF, Rangers (Roto: Rd. 3, H2H: Rd. 5): By all statistical measurements, Cruz broke through as a Fantasy stud last year. His .950 OPS ranked eighth among players with at least 375 at-bats. His 3.7 Fantasy points per game in Head-to-Head leagues ranked fifth among all outfielders. He was a plus contributor in all five Rotisserie categories. But he played only 108 games. That isn't anything new for him. He has yet to play more than 128 games in a season, and considering his hamstrings are almost always the reason, you can't write it off as a freak occurrence. Cruz has elite potential for sure, but his average draft position doesn't seem to account for the likelihood he'll get less than 400 at-bats.
Jimmy Rollins, SS, Phillies (Roto: Rd. 5, H2H: Rd. 6): Fantasy owners are willing to give Rollins the benefit of the doubt because he plays such a weak position, but his steady decline since his 2007 MVP season doesn't leave much room for optimism. His batting average, slugging percentage and OPS have dropped every year since, to the point he was below average in all three last year, and his 32 years of age make him especially old for a player at such a demanding position. If he's able to stay healthy, he'll still offer some power and speed, but that's a big if. By drafting him, you all but guarantee yourself a headache at the shortstop position, and you don't need to settle for headaches so early in the draft.
Curtis Granderson, OF, Yankees (Roto: Rd. 8, H2H: Rd. 7): Granderson is on this list for a third consecutive year, and quite frankly, people are tired of reading about him. So I'll keep it short. His place here has less to do with his disappointing 2010 season and more to do with the misguided perception he's a five-category threat. His work with hitting coach Kevin Long may help him approach 30 homers again, but he's never stolen 30 bases in a season, only twice stealing as many as 15, and he strikes out too often to hit higher than .280 or so. He'd have to do one or the other -- if not both -- to justify his draft position.
Mike Stanton, OF, Marlins (Roto: Rd. 7, H2H: Rd. 8): Nobody doubts Stanton's power potential after he hit 22 homers in only 359 at-bats as a rookie, but based on his average draft position, he could hit 35 this year and still be a disappointment. The 21-year-old has enough shortcomings to suggest he's going to be a one-trick pony, at least at this early stage of his career. His strikeout rate of one every 2.9 at-bats was on the level of Mark Reynolds and didn't improve much over the course of the year. And as Reynolds showed last year, anyone who strikes out that much needs a lot of luck just to hit in the .250-.260 range. Yes, Stanton may hit 35 homers, but a .235 batting average is even more likely.
Alexei Ramirez, SS, White Sox (Roto: Rd. 9, H2H: Rd. 11): Ramirez fits into the Elvis Andrus category of above average for his position, but below average for Fantasy. The former explains why he's drafted so early; the latter explains why he's on this list. When he hit 21 homers and stole 13 bases as a rookie in 2008, most Fantasy owners mistook him for a power-speed threat with a 20-20 season in his future. For some reason, the label has stuck even though he has yet to reach 20 in either category since. He's a free-swinger who doesn't reach base often enough to make a significant Fantasy impact in between homers, and at age 29, he doesn't have much room to improve.
Matt Wieters, C, Orioles (Roto: Rd. 10, H2H: Rd. 11): Never in Fantasy has a player gotten so much credit for so little results. Now two years into Wieters' big-league career, Fantasy owners continue to draft him on blind faith, hoping he'll eventually live up to the potential that made him Baseball America's No. 1 prospect entering 2009. Yeah, he could this year, but with no clear evidence of him turning the corner, a 10th-round pick seems like more than a little bit of a reach, especially when a proven high-end catcher like Geovany Soto is still available. And if Soto isn't still available in your league, you have plenty of other positions to shore up at that point in the draft. You don't need to be throwing up a Hail Mary pass.
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