2011 Draft Prep: Who might take that next step?
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Some young players just make things look easy. Some phenoms, such as Andrew McCutchen and Tommy Hanson, not only came out of the blocks smoking in their first looks as big leaguers, but they kept going strong right through their sophomore seasons.
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On Draft Day, it's not hard to know how to size up talents like McCutchen and Hanson, because they've shown us a steady level of production practically since Day One. Many other pre-peak players don't make things nearly so easy on Fantasy owners. They struggle early on, and just when they look ready to break out, they bust instead. These players, because of their inconsistency and relative lack of a major league track record, pose a special challenge to owners.
Below are 15 players, all in their early-to-mid 20s, who fit this frustrating pattern. There are also two visualizations -- one for hitters and one for pitchers -- that illustrate each player's Fantasy and secondary statistical trends. These are aimed to help us cut through the fog of these players' confounding early-career performances.
We begin with an analysis of 10 of the majors' most perplexing young hitters, as we try to get a bead on their value for the 2011 season.
Elvis Andrus, SS, Texas: With a .300 batting average holding up into mid-June last year, Andrus looked like he was on the fast track to stardom, but Elvis' bat left the building for much of the second half. A glance at his secondary trends shows that he was a more patient hitter, and he did a better job of getting hits on balls in play. Andrus lost some triples and home run power, but his value will come from run-scoring, steals and batting average anyway. Increasing patience and his aversion to flyballs will help him in these categories going forward.
Gordon Beckham, 2B, Chicago White Sox: Hitting with less patience and power, it was a step backwards for Beckham in 2010. However, the extra-base hits and walks started to come again midseason, so essentially he has had half of a down season in a two-year career. The high strikeout rate was the one blemish that didn't disappear late in the year, so don't expect too much progress on batting average, but it should still be a bounce-back or even a breakout season for the third-year player.
Alcides Escobar, SS, Kansas City: A. 290-plus hitter in the minors, Escobar may have played over his head in 2009 when he batted .304, but is he really as bad as he was in 2010? Apparently not, as he improved his contact and walk rates while getting doubles and triples more frequently. Escobar just had a harder time getting singles, as the ground ball-hitting shortstop's batting average on worm-burners fell from .400 to .223. The eventual resting place for his ground ball batting average will probably be in the upper .200s, so while he should improve greatly on last season's debacle, he may never equal his achievements from two years ago.
Brett Gardner, OF, N.Y. Yankees: Gardner has improved his production each of the last three years, but can he continue the trend? While he established himself as an everyday player last season, a wrist injury limited both his plate appearances and his productivity at the plate. While Gardner may look like a clear-cut case of a player on the rise, a spike in his strikeout rate last year muddies the picture. However, that rate rose dramatically after he sustained his wrist injury in late June. Now that he is healthy again, expect Gardner to continue his upward trajectory.
Colby Rasmus, OF, St. Louis: For better and for worse, Rasmus was a much different hitter last year than he was in his 2009 rookie season. He waited for his pitch, increasing his pitches per plate appearance from 3.62 to 4.05, and the result was more homers, more frozen ropes but also more strikeouts. The net impact on his Fantasy value was overwhelmingly positive, but can he do it again? Perhaps, but his success in getting base hits on balls in play was unprecedented for him, even in the minors. Especially since he did the bulk of his damage over just two months, owners should not be surprised to see Rasmus take a step backwards on his rate stats this season.
Pablo Sandoval, 3B, San Francisco: A substantial dropoff in power and a .208 batting average with runners in scoring position last year meant goodbye to Kung Fu Panda and hello to Pablo Strand-'Em-All. Sandoval is probably the toughest of the up-and-comers to project, because not only are his major league stats all over the place, but he has only a small pool of minor league data above Advanced Class A. He may not get back to 25 homers and a .330 average, but Sandoval did show in '09 that he can put up good power numbers without having to jack a lot of flyballs to achieve them. He is too good of a hitter to repeat his 2010 misery.
Denard Span, OF, Minnesota: After his first two big league seasons, Span looked like a legitimate .300 hitter. This was something of a surprise, as he batted .285 and .267 in his only full seasons at Double-A and Triple-A, respectively. Last year's .264 average sure looks like a correction, though he should improve on his .295 BABIP.
Ian Stewart, 3B, Colorado: Stewart psyched us out with a 2009 season in which he hit 25 homers, though his batting average sank below .230. He had shown in previous years that he was capable of a higher batting average, so 2010 looked like Breakout City. Stewart did inch his average up to .256, but he left some of his power behind. He also missed time with oblique and shin injuries. Stewart started the spring off with a sprained knee, so he may just be injury-prone. As a player who has shown home run and line drive power and a patient approach (but not all three things at the same time), he could still have a breakout in 2011.
Justin Upton, OF, Arizona: Even more so than with Stewart, Upton's 2009 campaign had "breakout" written all over it, and despite some down numbers in 2010, the surge may have been legitimate. He was batting .280 with a .202 Isolated Power average up through July 27 last year, when he injured his hip. He struggled through August and then missed most of September with a labral tear. While there was a dropoff last season, Fantasy owners shouldn't make too much of it. Upton could be back at or near his 2009 levels again this year.
Matt Wieters, C, Baltimore: Wieters refined his batting eye last season, but his more selective approach didn't lead to more power or Fantasy value, at least on a per-game basis. While Wieters showed impressive home run clout in the minors, there is reason to suspect that it will translate to the majors. According to data from the StatCorner website, Wieters' rate of home runs per balls hit in the air (i.e., flies and line drives) dropped substantially each time he was promoted to a higher level. Particularly as a hitter who tends to put the ball on the ground, this is not a promising trend. Now in his third year, Wieters should start to show more power, but his gains may be more modest than what many owners are hoping for.
The performance of young pitchers can be every bit as hard to peg, if not more, than hitters. Here are five starters no older than 26 who could give owners fits on Draft Day.
Jair Jurrjens, Atlanta: With a 2.60 ERA in 2009, Jurrjens became a coveted pitcher in 2010, going as early as the fifth round in some drafts. Owners who reached for him last year were disappointed, as his ERA shot up by more than two runs. Jurrjens was also limited to 116 1/3 innings due to shoulder, hamstring and knee injuries. When healthy, he has shown an ability to keep the ball down, but even if he can avoid the long ball this year, it's unlikely that he will duplicate his '09 success. His low ERA was built on the foundation of a sky-high 81 percent strand rate. Jurrjens should enjoy at least a mild rebound, but he will still be a low-end mixed league option.
Justin Masterson, Cleveland: He has produced robust strikeout and ground ball rates, so Masterson's high ERAs and WHIPs have made him a frustrating pitcher to own. Part of his problem has been difficulty with stranding baserunners, which is no minor detail, given his higher-than-average walk rate. He has also been very hittable on balls in play in general and on flyballs in particular. There is no reason to think that Masterson can't get more flyball outs going forward, and 2011 could be the year that Masterson ceases to be a source of frustration in Fantasy.
Rick Porcello, Detroit: For someone who induces as many grounders as Porcello does, he has been burned a little too often by gopherballs in his two-year major league career. It didn't show in his ERA, but Porcello actually did a better job of keeping the ball in the park last year than in his rookie season. While his first-year 3.96 ERA and the .280 BABIP that supported it were probably too good to be true, the New Jersey native deserved better than last season's poor stats. Further improvement in his home run rate along with a higher proportion of stranded baserunners should lead to a much better season this time around.
Kevin Slowey, Minnesota: Slowey teased Fantasy owners with a 3.99 ERA and a compact 1.15 WHIP in his first full season back in 2008. He hasn't been nearly as good since, though wrist surgery robbed him of half of his '09 season. When on the mound, Slowey's biggest problem the last two years has been the same as Masterson's -- a high BABIP on flyballs. This is a much more acute issue for Slowey, as he is one of the majors' most flyball-prone pitchers. Teammates Scott Baker and Francisco Liriano have also been bedeviled by high proportions of flyball hits in play, so this is a problem that might not solve itself. Factor in that Slowey, who has to compete with Baker for a rotation spot, may not have a job, and you have a pitcher who could have a hard time matching his best performance to date.
Chris Volstad, Florida: When Volstad first arrived in '08, he was billed as a strike-throwing ground ball specialist. While he has made good on the latter part, he has had troubles at times avoiding homers, and his command has frequently faltered as well. Based on his minor league numbers, it appears that there is still room for the tall righty to improve his walk and ground ball rates, but he's never been a strikeout pitcher, which limits his ceiling. Look for Volstad to take a step forward in '11, but not a big one.
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| Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James GO/AO -- Ground out-fly out ratio GB/FB -- Ground ball-fly ball ratio Batting Average per Balls in Play (BABIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30% Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks) Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats |
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