2011 Draft Prep: Late-round sleepers to target
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Two or three hours into a Fantasy Baseball draft, the process can get a little monotonous.
With your roster all but complete and the trash talk in the chat room growing less and less amusing, you might feel tempted to pack it in. You might even go on autopilot.
But you shouldn't. Your actions in those later rounds, as inconsequential as they may seem, could be what ultimately sets your team apart.
On Draft Day, the one thing you want to avoid is assured mediocrity, which is mostly what's available in the late rounds. You want upside. You want the best possible bang for your buck.
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And this is the place to find it.
This list includes 12 of the players available in the 17th round or later (according to our current Average Draft Position data) who have the best chance of exceeding their projected numbers not just by a little, but by a lot. Surely, they won't all pan out -- they're late-rounders for a reason -- but if you happen to grab one or two who do, you'll never sleep through the end of another draft.
And you'll have a clear advantage over everyone who settled for what the autopilot gave them.
Note: The numbers in parentheses reflect current average draft position on CBSSports.com, assuming a 12-team league.
Edwin Jackson, SP, White Sox (Roto: Rd. 18, H2H: Rd. 17)
Jackson has done little more than taunt Fantasy owners over the years, from his repeated failure to live up to the potential that made him Baseball America's No. 4 prospect in 2004 to his second-half collapse during what was a presumed breakout season in 2009 to his eight-walk no-hitter just last year.
And judging by his final numbers, you can understand why some people might be ready to close the book on him completely. He had a losing record, and his 4.47 ERA ranked 75th among the 92 pitchers who qualified for the ERA title. All in all, he looked like little more than a late-round pick.
But lost in all the disappointment was what happened to him after he came over from the Diamondbacks in the Daniel Hudson trade last July. Working with pitching coach Don Cooper to correct a flaw in his delivery, he regained the movement on his pitches and was able to hit parts of the plate he couldn't before. He became a different pitcher.
His strikeout rate (9.2 per nine innings) during those 11 starts was higher than it's ever been. His walk rate (2.2 per nine innings) was lower than it's ever been. His ERA dropped by more than a full run, and he pitched seven innings or more seven times. He was finally able to do what he should have been doing all along.
Jackson's stuff was never in question. He routinely throws in the mid-to-high 90s and has the pedigree of an ace. Now that he finally has the tutelage he needs to turn the corner, this project nearly 10 years in the making might be nearing its completion.
You won't find a pitcher showing clearer signs of meeting his upside so late in the draft.
Logan Morrison, OF, Marlins (Roto: Rd. 21, H2H: Rd. 18)
Morrison is overlooked for the most obvious of reasons. Two homers in 244 at-bats aren't what any Fantasy owner wants to see, particularly from a guy who didn't steal a single base.
But just because he wasn't hitting homers doesn't mean he wasn't productive. In Head-to-Head leagues especially, he was indispensible down the stretch, averaging more Fantasy points per game from the time he arrived in late July than Justin Upton or Ichiro Suzuki did all season.
The secret was not only his plate discipline, which accounted for a .390 on-base percentage that would have ranked 12th among full-time players, but his extra-base power. He had 29 extra-base hits in what amounts to 38 percent of a season, giving him a slugging percentage (.446) better than 11 of the players who hit 20-plus homers last year, including 30-homer man Mark Reynolds.
That would be reason enough to take a flier on Morrison late. The expected progression -- which is pretty much a foregone conclusion for a player who ranked among Baseball America's top 20 prospects in back-to-back seasons -- makes him potentially the biggest bargain on Draft Day. He's only 23. As he fills out, more and more of those doubles and triples will begin to clearing fence, making him potentially a 20-25 homer guy someday.
Even a jump to 12-15 homers this year, when added to his other stats, would make Morrison better than indispensible. One way or another, he's almost certain to exceed his draft position this year. The question is by how much?
Coco Crisp, OF, Athletics (Roto: Rd. 19, H2H: Undrafted)
Crisp's arrest for suspicion of driving under the influence back in early March didn't win him many supporters, but those owners who had him at the end of last year had plenty of goodwill to spare.
Only they can fully appreciate what he brought to the table after returning from the bevy of injuries that sidelined him for the better part of three months. From the end of June to the middle of September, he was one of the five best outfielders in Fantasy.
No, seriously. Crisp averaged 3.8 Fantasy points per game last year. Among outfield-eligible players, only Carlos Gonzalez, Josh Hamilton and Jose Bautista averaged more.
Notice that list didn't include projected first-rounders Carl Crawford and Ryan Braun. Notice and marvel.
Of course, Crisp shouldn't rank anywhere close to that elite group. He deserves to last into the late rounds, if for no other reason than because of that bevy of injuries. Last year, he dealt with a strained left hamstring, a broken pinkie, an intercostal strain, renewed tightness in the same hamstring, a second break of the same pinkie and on and on and on. Considering he also had surgery to repair both shoulders at different points in 2009, the guy is clearly too fragile to last through a 162-game season.
But his performance last year wasn't so unprecedented that you should immediately dismiss it. He always had the speed to steal 30-50 bases in a season; he just never got the green light to use it in Boston. And though he didn't show much power as a part-timer for the Red Sox, he hit 15 and 16 homers for the Indians in 2004 and 2005.
Now that he's more advanced as a hitter and back to playing every day, the biggest question surrounding Crisp isn't his ability, but his health. If he performs at even a fraction of the level he did last year, he'll be worth the headache late in the draft.
Nate McLouth, OF, Braves (Roto: Rd. 29, H2H: Rd. 25)
Maybe some people thought McLouth's All-Star 2008 season, when he hit 26 homers and stole 23 bases with an .853 OPS, was too good to be true. Maybe they felt validated when he hit only .237 over his final 53 games with the Braves in 2009.
But even they wouldn't have predicted what happened last year, when the 28-year-old of sound body and mind slumped to a .190 batting average.
It started with a poor April in which he hit only .175 and escalated to the point he spent almost all of August in the minor leagues, forcing the Braves to resort to players like Melky Cabrera and Rick Ankiel in center field.
And yet they didn't lose faith in him. They had an entire offseason to shore up center field, but they didn't see it as a position of need, content to enter 2011 with McLouth once again favored to start there. Shoot, they even let Cabrera and Ankiel walk.
That's conviction -- the kind an organization would have to share from top to bottom to handcuff itself in such a way.
"I believe -- and I think most people around here believe -- that what we saw for that first year he was with us, was an aberration," Braves general Frank Wren told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution in January. "That's not Nate McLouth. I mean, he's too good a player. There's too many teams that would love to have him."
So far this spring, the results speak for themselves. McLouth is seeing breaking pitches better, attacking fastballs in the strike zone and generally looking nothing like the player who hit .190 last year.
What do you have to lose by drafting him in the late rounds? The chances of him flopping at that point are the same for anyone else, and the chances of him blowing up are much, much higher.
Jed Lowrie, 2B/SS, Red Sox (Roto: Rd. 31, H2H: Rd. 24)
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So you want a shortstop, huh?
Didn't get Hanley Ramirez or Troy Tulowitzki in the first round? Didn't like the look of Jose Reyes in the second? Didn't want to reach for Elvis Andrus, Alexei Ramirez, Starlin Castro or any of those other middle-to-late-round shortstops that anyone, to any degree, likes?
Well, you're in luck. The next great thing at the position is lasting even longer than that.
Lowrie is that guy. You can deny it all you want, citing his past failures and unfulfilled promises, but once he finally got healthy last year, recovering from both mononucleosis and a wrist injury that had plagued him since he broke into the league, he was one of the most productive shortstop-eligible players in the game.
His .907 OPS would have ranked second at the position over a full season. He also walked as many times as he struck out and slugged at a near 30-homer pace, neither of which would surprise anyone who followed his rise up the minor-league ladder.
And he did it all as an everyday player, getting routine at-bats with Dustin Pedroia and Marco Scutaro both sidelined by injuries.
So what's the problem? Why is he universally overlooked if he's the greatest thing to happen to the shortstop position since Ben Zobrist in 2009? Well, Lowrie does have to overcome that one little issue of not having, you know, a job. But like Zobrist, his versatility could earn him a healthy number of at-bats even if he doesn't have a position to call his own, especially since every member of the Red Sox's infield has injury concerns dating back to last season. If Lowrie gets a chance to start anywhere for any period of time and performs the way he did last year, he might force the Red Sox to find a permanent place for him.
True, he won't help you right out the gate, but shortstop is such a dismal position that anyone with the potential to perform like an early-rounder deserves a roster spot. When Lowrie's time comes, you'll be glad you were the one stashing him.
Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C, Red Sox (Roto: Rd. 25, H2H: Undrafted)
Go ahead and roll your eyes. Saltalamacchia has been appearing on these lists since before Bryce Harper could drive, and quite frankly, you're a little tired of the perpetual disappointment. But something is different about the former top prospect's uncontested claim to the starting job this year.
He's with the Red Sox now.
Since Theo Epstein took over as general manager, the Red Sox have had a knack for optimizing their roster with financially-sound signings and waiver claims. More than once, they've plucked an ex-prospect off the scrap heap and turned him into something special, with David Ortiz being the most obvious example. And because they have more resources than most organizations, they never have to resort to one of those reclamation projects before they deem him ready.
I'm not saying everyone they pick is a winner, but they generally don't back themselves into a corner. The question marks on their roster always have built-in answers.
I don't know if you've looked at their depth chart recently, but Saltalamacchia is the only answer at catcher. Unless they think Jason Varitek still has something to offer at age 38, the Red Sox have backed themselves into a corner at the position.
They didn't have to do that. They're the Red Sox, for crying out loud. They could have made a move for Russell Martin or Miguel Olivo or countless other catchers on the free-agent market, but they didn't. They wanted Saltalamacchia.
Clearly, they still see the potential in him and think he's just an adjustment or two from realizing it. He's already worked with sports psychologists to correct his problems throwing back to the mound, and his spring so far has been nothing short of productive.
I'm believing in the brain trust and calling 2011 the year Saltalamacchia finally takes a big step forward. And now that he's a late-rounder instead of a middle-rounder, I can afford the reckless optimism.
Here's a quick look at a few other bargains available in the late rounds:
Jhoulys Chacin, SP, Rockies (Roto: Rd. 17, H2H: Rd. 16): Chacin bounced between the starting rotation and the bullpen enough last year to make any Fantasy owner dizzy, but he rewarded those who stuck with him when he returned to the starting rotation at the end of the season, allowing less than three earned runs in each of his final eight starts for a 1.44 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. He seems to have followed in Ubaldo Jimenez's footsteps as a Rockies farmhand undaunted by the thin air of Coors Field, and with his ability to strike out more than a batter per inning, he may be Jimenez's match in more ways than one. His role is clear heading into 2011, as is his potential to help your Fantasy team.
Joel Hanrahan, RP, Pirates (Roto: Rd. 17, H2H: Rd. 21): Hanrahan achieved a milestone last year matched by only 11 pitchers over the last five years. That's right: He struck out 100 batters pitching exclusively in relief. But nobody associates him with that. No, Fantasy owners remember him for his embarrassing performance as the surprise closer for the Nationals in 2008 and 2009, when he was clearly too raw for the role. Now that the Pirates have eased him into it, he's ready to take over as one of the most overpowering late-inning relievers in baseball. He may still have some growing pains ahead, and pitching for a last-place team like the Pirates won't help his cause. But unlike a lot of the closers available in the late rounds, he has the job for sure.
Jeff Niemann, SP, Rays (Roto: Rd. 22, H2H: Rd. 21): One look at Niemann's 4.39 ERA last year might lead you to believe he deserves to go off the board as late as he is, but for most of the season he was a borderline ace, showing clear progress in his second full season with a 7-2 record, 2.77 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in the first half. His numbers only took a turn for the worse in August, when a shoulder problem led to a 20.70 ERA over a miserable three-start stretch. Remove those three starts, and he was 12-5 with a 3.40 ERA and 1.17 WHIP on the year. He rebounded reasonably well to end the season, but by then, most Fantasy owners had already written him off. Don't make the same mistake now.
Ryan Raburn, OF, Tigers (Roto: Rd. 21, H2H: Rd. 24): Maybe if Raburn's performance in place of Magglio Ordonez last year was an isolated incident, I'd warn you against overvaluing the soon-to-be 30-year-old on Draft Day. But his .342 batting average and 13 home runs over his final 199 at-bats last year looked an awful lot like his 16 homers in 261 at-bats in 2009 and give you every reason to believe he could be a 30-homer guy over a full season. And considering those 199 at-bats came as an everyday player, you know he won't wilt with increased exposure. Assuming he holds off Brennan Boesch and Don Kelly for everyday at-bats in left field as expected, he could have a breakthrough similar to the one Jayson Werth had in 2009.
Travis Wood, SP, Reds (Roto: Rd. 23, H2H: Rd. 22): In past years, anyone with Wood's combination of strikeout rate and WHIP would fly off the board before you even had a chance to read about him, but the rise of pitching across the league has rendered him little more than an afterthought. That doesn't make his performance any less impressive, though. Over his 17 starts last year, Wood only once walked more than three batters and only twice allowed more than three earned runs. And he did it all coming off a minor-league season in which he went 13-5 with a 1.77 ERA. Wood was never considered a high-end prospect, but his consistency speaks for itself. For the price of a late-round pick, he deserves every benefit of the doubt.
Mitch Moreland, 1B, Rangers (Roto: Rd. 31, H2H: Undrafted): The more the Rangers try to hold Moreland back, the more he shows them they can't, first by homering nine times in 145 at-bats after taking over for Chris Davis midway through last season and then by hitting .348 with a .900 OPS in the postseason after the Rangers nearly left him off the roster. Moreland hasn't gotten much attention in a deep minor-league system, but he has hit for average and power with good strike-zone judgment every step up the ladder. The Rangers have labeled him a platoon player heading into the season, but given his pattern of overachievement, he may soon convince them otherwise.
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