2011 Draft Prep: No need to worry about whiffs?
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When it comes to evaluating hitters, for some Fantasy owners, strikeout is a nasty word.
A lack of contact can kill a batting average and take away run-producing opportunities. Then again, there are players like Ryan Howard and Adam Dunn who have been among the most productive in Fantasy because the amount of power they supply compensates for their prodigious whiffing. There are others, such as Matt Kemp and Brad Hawpe, who don't possess the strongest contact or power skills, but have been valuable Fantasy commodities because of the frequency with which they get hits on balls in play.
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The tool below both confirms the importance of contact in Fantasy and can help owners to spot high-strikeout players who are nonetheless productive. One thing the graphic clearly shows is that you can't be a top producer if you have a strikeout rate that is well above average. The first of the vertical dotted lines shows the average strikeout rate for players in this pool -- all major leaguers with at least 900 at-bats between 2008 and 2010 -- and it stands at 18.8 percent. While there are 11 players who have averaged at least 0.95 Fantasy points per at bat while exceeding the average strikeout rate over the last three years, none has topped that lofty productivity threshold while whiffing as much as 24 percent of the time. Dunn and Howard are among a small group of high-strikeout hitters to come close to that elite level, but even they were unable to go above it.
Still, there are plenty of hitters who reside to the right of the 24 percent line who are worth a close look on Draft Day. Using the position selector in the upper-right corner of the tool, you can see that there are strikeout-prone hitters who perform about as well in Fantasy as some of the better players at each position (except at shortstop, where nobody gets strike three). On a per-game basis, whiff- happy backstops Jorge Posada and Geovany Soto have not been much worse than Victor Martinez. Mark Reynolds is one of the more polarizing names in Fantasy, but despite his strong aversion to contact, he hasn't trailed the third base elite by much in per-game productivity. While players like Reynolds fan too often to trust as early-round picks, they may not be as detrimental to your Fantasy health as you may think.
While players like Posada, Soto and Reynolds have fared well overall since 2008, what matters is how they are likely to perform in 2011. That's why the tool also includes projections for strikeout rate, strikeout total and Fantasy points for the coming year, which are visible in the bottom view once you select a player in the top view. For example, if you want to know how Posada and Soto will stack up against V-Mart this year, you can choose them in the Player Selector on the right and click on their marks, or click on "C" in the Position Selector, find Martinez in the view and drag the mouse across to grab Posada and Soto. Release the mouse and their projections appear in the view below.
While there is no doubt that strikeouts are undesirable in Fantasy, there are enough high-strikeout players who can compensate for their deficiency that you ignore them at your own risk. With past data and projections at your disposal, you can use the tool to discover which high-strikeout hitters are worth the risk.
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| Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James GO/AO -- Ground out-fly out ratio GB/FB -- Ground ball-fly ball ratio Batting Average per Balls in Play (BABIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30% Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks) Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats |
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