2011 Draft Prep: Course corrections are coming
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Players can have bad games, bad weeks and bad months, but over the course of a season they normally bounce back to something close to their usual level. Similarly, there are those who play over their heads for extended stretches, but eventually they show us that they still are who they always were.
Just as players can have up and down portions to a season, sometimes they have entire seasons that are one big fluke. Of course, players sometimes break the mold and never go back to their prior form. We can look for certain statistical cues to help us to separate those who are likely to return to their previous levels of production from those who may have stepped up or down to a new level.
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While pitchers have some control over their own on-field destinies, their stats are also shaped by the performance of their defense and bullpen. ERA, in particular, reflects these other factors as well as the pitcher's own success. There are several statistical indicators that predict ERA, and xFIP (or Expected Fielding Independent Pitching) is one that is based solely on the factors a pitcher can control, namely strikeouts, walks and batted ball type. We can look at the discrepancy between ERA and xFIP, and in many cases, we can identify pitchers who are on a collision course with a statistical correction.
The visualization below shows ERAs and xFIPs for major league pitchers in 2010 who threw at least 100 innings, as well as the differential between the two measures. If you click on the row for a particular pitcher, you will see the recent trends for two more indicators that can help us to make sense of last year's ERA. Left-on-base rate (LOB) is included as its fluctuations are very strongly tied to variation in ERA. While some pitchers strand baserunners at a consistent level from year to year, most see their rates shift up and down, causing their ERAs to shift as well. The lower view also includes trend data for batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Pitchers often establish a BABIP norm, and when they depart from it, that's a good sign that they could regress the following year.
The pitchers most due for improvement this year are at or near the top of the rankings displayed above. Josh Beckett heads the list, and a review of his trend data shows that he did a far worse job in stranding baserunners and preventing hits on balls in play last year than he typically does. The same is true for James Shields, Brandon Morrow and Joe Blanton, who along with Beckett, should have had ERAs under 4.00 last year, according to xFIP.
Ricky Nolasco, Jason Hammel and Bud Norris were supposedly also robbed of an ERA below 4.00, though there are some reasons for skepticism in these cases. A typical LOB rate is in the low 70s, but Nolasco has posted rates below 70 percent in each of the last two seasons, and he may also be prone to high BABIPs. Hammel's LOB and BABIP history is much like Nolasco's. Norris has yet to show that he won't get hit around on contact, though in his case, low line drive rates offer some hope that his first two years were merely unlucky. xFIP suggests that Kevin Correia should have landed just on the north side of a 4.00 ERA, but his chronically-low strand rates should give us reason to think that his 5.00-plus mark may not have been a fluke.
While Beckett leads the list of bounceback contenders, his teammate Clay Buchholz finds himself as the Grand Marshal of the dropoff candidates' parade. Following close behind him are Brian Duensing, Trevor Cahill, R.A. Dickey, Livan Hernandez, Brett Anderson and Jon Garland, all of whom rode suspiciously-favorable LOB and BABIP rates to strong performances. Sophomore hurler Jaime Garcia can be added to the list of dropoff candidates, despite his lack of an extended major league track record, as his 81 percent LOB rate should be hard to replicate.
Two pitchers Fantasy owners don't have to worry about are Felix Hernandez and Tim Hudson. Hernandez's Cy Young campaign was no fluke, as he not only possesses extremely sharp command but also a proven ability to prevent line drives and strand baserunners. Hudson also has a knack for establishing favorable LOB and BABIP rates.
The most puzzling case among all of the pitchers on the list is David Price, whose 80 percent strand rate and .273 BABIP deflated his ERA. It remains to be seen if Price, like Hernandez and Hudson, can post back-to-back high LOB rates, but he has already established a low BABIP for his young major league career. He has managed the latter even in the absence of a low line drive rate or high flyball rate that typically accompanies a modest BABIP. The only other recent pitcher with this trend who comes to mind is John Lannan, and he came back to earth in 2010 with a .325 BABIP (though, in all fairness, Lannan was bothered by a sore elbow for much of last year). This year will be an interesting test to see if Price can really be this effective on balls in play on a consistent basis.
Finding hitters due for rebounds and dropoffs is a more complicated matter, as there is no predictive stat as comprehensive as xFIP for them. There are any number of measures we could look at to gauge a hitter's chance for regression, but assessing variations in line drive rate goes a long way towards our goal of identifying potential statistical corrections. As with LOB and BABIP for pitchers, hitters can settle into a predictable range of line drive rates, but they can also fluctuate a great deal, which explains why batting averages and extra-base rates can vary a lot from season to season.
The visualization below shows hitters' line drive rates from 2010 as well as the percentage point change from their rates in 2009. The graph in the bottom view, which is activated when you select any player from the top view, shows the impact that change in line drive rate may have had on a hitter's batting average and Isolated Power. In cases where a spike or dip in batting average or extra-base power coincides with a concurrent shift in line drive rate, you've found a probable case of a player whose fortunes are about to change.
Just a glance at Aaron Hill's .205 batting average from a year ago, as compared to his career .270 average, would hint at a potential rebound. Still, if there is any doubt as to his legitimacy as a bounceback candidate, all one has to do is look at Hill's miniscule 13 percent line drive rate, which is well below his norm and around two-thirds of the major league average. Starting at the top of the rankings in the graph, we can find several other examples of players headed for better times, especially if we focus on those whose line drive rates were below 16 percent. Mark Reynolds, Matt Wieters, Derek Jeter and Rajai Davis join Hill as players with a history of decent line drive hitting who saw dramatic drops in their rates last year. Each of these players saw his batting average fall in 2010, and all but Wieters got extra base hits at a lower rate, and even Wieters' power uptick was extremely modest. If history is any indication, each of these players should put up higher batting averages and slugging percentages this season.
Michael Young (19 percent) and David Wright (22 percent) both put up respectable line drive rates in 2010, yet both are good candidates to produce higher batting averages this year. Tracking their batting average trends in the bottom view, you can see that both players experienced notable downturns in their batting averages a year ago which coincided with lower-than-normal line drive rates (you can view their line drive rates in a pop-up when hovering over the marks in the bottom view). In both cases, though, a full recovery is not likely, since both hitters have been trending towards higher strikeout rates.
On an even gloomier note, there were several players last year who got a boost from outsized line drive rates who could be headed for a fall. In particular, Geovany Soto, Adrian Beltre and Dan Uggla all posted rates that were well above average, despite none of them having a history of being a line drive hitter. All three saw increases in batting average and extra-base power as a result. Carlos Ruiz's line rate also rose into uncharted territory, though it didn't pay off in the form of more extra-base hits. However, Ruiz derived much of his value from his .302 batting average, which looks poised to take a sharp tumble.
If these one-year aberrations don't worry you, consider the cautionary tale of Jason Bartlett. After a steady pattern of near-average line drive rates, Bartlett exploded with a 27 percent rate in 2009 that was six percentage points above his mark from 2008. On the basis of his strong '09 performance, which included a .320 batting average, .170 Isolated Power and 30 steals, he ranked sixth among all shortstops in average draft position in Rotisserie formats last year. Bartlett wound up just a bit outside of the top six in 5x5 Rotisserie value last year, ranking 23rd among shortstops, as his line drive rate plunged back to Earth. Soto, Beltre, Uggla and Ruiz aren't likely to fall anywhere as far as Bartlett did, but a regression to their normal line drive rates could put a serious damper on their value nonetheless.
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| Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James GO/AO -- Ground out-fly out ratio GB/FB -- Ground ball-fly ball ratio Batting Average per Balls in Play (BABIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30% Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks) Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats |
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