By the Numbers: Who are the kings of popups?
Listen to our latest Fantasy Baseball Podcast!
Not long before the start of the season, a fellow owner in one of my leagues offered Carlos Quentin to me, making the pitch that he was due for a big rebound in batting average after a couple of season below the .250 mark. I declined, citing my usual mantra about swing-for-the-fences types: "Hitters with high flyball rates are destined to kill their batting average."
I just may need to give that owner a call back.
Quentin is a big-time flyball hitter for certain, but not all flyball hitters are alike. Brian McCann, Stephen Drew and Chase Utley have all posted healthy flyball rates, yet none has finished any of the past three seasons with a batting average as low as .260. It helps that each of these hitters is decent at making contact, though none would ever be confused with, say, Juan Pierre or Vladimir Guerrero. (The same is true, by the way, for Quentin.) What keeps this trio from being a batting average albatross in Fantasy is a healthy aversion to popping out. Just two years ago, the same could be said about Quentin.
 Follow us on ...
|
|
Get the latest news and analysis from the most informed Fantasy staff in the industry by following us on Twitter and Facebook. @cbsfantasynews facebook.com/cbssportsfantasy |
Last year, though, Quentin had less in common with the likes of McCann, Drew and Utley and more in common with Vernon Wells, aka The King of Pop. Wells has hit more infield flies than any major leaguer since 2008. Three seasons ago, he managed to hit .300, as he moderated his popup rate and compiled the lowest strikeout rate of his career. Once he returned to his usual ways, though, Wells was back to posting mediocre batting averages. Quentin just may have Wells' process in reverse, as he had posted moderate popup rates until last year and then increased his rate by more than 50 percent in 2010.
(If you're puzzling over why Quentin, with decent popup and contact rates, batted only .236 in 2009, here's the main culprit: an oddly-low batting average on line drives. So, in other words, what looks like a consistent two-year pattern of low averages is really just the product of two different statistical flukes.)
Quentin's not the only one whose 2010 popup rate might be leading Fantasy owners to reach potentially faulty conclusions about 2011 performance. While some hitters like Wells, Edwin Encarnacion, Pat Burrell and Rod Barajas just can't keep from sending the ball straight up, others seemed to suffer from an isolated spurt.
Featured below are 10 hitters who, in addition to Quentin, could see their batting average, runs scored and RBI make an about-face due to a regression in their popup rate.
Due for Improvement
Mark Teixeira, 1B, N.Y. Yankees: Teixeira's overall flyball rate barely increased from the year before, but a much larger proportion of those flies didn't travel beyond the infield in 2010, contributing to a disappointing .256 batting average. This may not be a random fluctuation, as Tex battled an array of injuries that likely affected his swing. However, especially if he can stay healthy, there's no reason to think Teixeira will pop out so often, allowing him to approach his usual batting average in the .290 to .300 range.
Aramis Ramirez, 3B, Chicago Cubs: Like Teixeira, Ramirez's woes at the plate last season (.241 batting average) can be traced back to injury, specifically his sore thumb. It clearly had impacted him, as he hit much better in the second half of the season after getting healthier. While he has never been especially averse to popups, Ramirez's recent rates had not been as extreme as last year's. Ramirez may be on the plus side of 30, but he still has the skills to hit .280 or higher.
Yunel Escobar, SS, Toronto: After three straight years of batting averages of .288 or higher, last season's .256 average was both puzzling and frustrating to Escobar's Fantasy owners. Despite strikeout and line drive rates that were similar to those posted in 2009, Escobar saw his batting average plummet from .299 to .256. Not coincidentally, his once-miniscule popup rate rose to a near-normal 7.1 percent. In the prime of his career, it would be surprising if Escobar abandoned his previously-consistent pattern of popup avoidance on a long-term basis. In fact, he turned that pattern around after a particularly abysmal first two months of the season, so look for the Escobar of old to stick around in 2011.
Kurt Suzuki, C, Oakland: Over the first four years of his big league career, Suzuki made steady progress on his strikeout rate, and by 2010, he was seeing strike three at just over half the rate of his rookie season. For all of the improvement in his strike zone judgment, he wound up with a 2010 batting average that was seven points lower than that of his rookie campaign. As you would guess, an aberrant popup rate was to blame, as he hit infield flies at the seventh-highest rate among major leaguers with at least 525 plate appearances. Don't be surprised to see Suzuki get his batting average back up into the .270s, where it was in '08 and '09.
Franklin Gutierrez, OF, Seattle: It's tempting to think that Gutierrez's numbers went into the tank last year because of a mysterious funk that permeated everybody and everything that entered Safeco Field, but there's a better explanation at our disposal. Gutierrez isn't much of a flyball hitter, but a much larger proportion of his flies stayed in the infield last season. First, of course, he has to get on the field once he recovers from his stomach ailment, but a healthy Gutierrez should bounce back from a .245 batting average this season.
Due for Decline
David Ortiz, DH, Boston: How is it that Big Papi's strikeout rate could soar from 18 to 28 percent over the last two seasons, yet his 2010 batting average was his highest since 2007? That's right, Ortiz stopped being Big Poppy. In the previous two seasons, he popped out on more than 10 percent of his balls in play, but last year that rate dipped below eight percent. Particularly at this stage of his career, we should expect some regression back upward. As his first weekend of games has shown, Ortiz still has plenty of power, but a repeat of a .270 batting average is probably beyond his reach.
Nick Swisher, OF, N.Y. Yankees: Much was made of the work that Swisher did to change his approach last year, as he clearly was a much more aggressive hitter. There is a certain logic to attributing his diminshed popup rate to his abandonment of a more patient ethic, but the data doesn't necessarily confirm the theory. In 2010, Swisher continued to be flyball-prone, so he while he may not have been "waiting for his pitch" he was still lifting the ball. Also, Swisher's move towards shorter plate appearances actually began in 2009, a season in which his popup rate rose slightly. The more you look at it, the more that Swisher's 2010 season -- and his career-best .288 batting average -- looks like a fluke.
Brandon Phillips, 2B, Cincinnati: Phillips has managed to keep his batting average in the same range over the last four seasons, even though his power has been steadily eroding. Improved contact skills are part of the explanation, but dipping popup rates have played a role, too. With Phillips' rate dropping under four percent last season, there may not be much more room for him to improve in that area, especially since that 2010 mark is an outlier among his career rates. 2011 could be the year that we start to see Phillips' batting average show some wear and tear.
Yuniesky Betancourt, SS, Milwaukee: Betancourt experienced a nice power surge last season, but he also posted the lowest popup rate of his career. Since he had a similarly-low rate in 2008, it looks as if 2009's spike was an aberration, but that rate was actually more in line with his career numbers. Not only may Betancourt take a step backwards in his home run power, given his outsized gains in 2010, but he could also see his batting average slip as well. He could return to being one of the least attractive shortstop options in Fantasy.
Omar Infante, 2B, Florida: Maybe it seems obvious that Infante is due for a decline after hitting .321 last year, but at least we can say this for him; that performance was backed up by his peripheral stats. Infante continued to make modest but steady improvement in his strikeout rate and he cut back drastically on popups and flyballs overall. The biggest warning sign of a decline is the 13 percentage point increase in his ground ball rate. For someone who is not a home run threat, this could actually be read as a positive development, as most players have a better chance get base hits on grounders than on flies. It's just that one-year changes that are this radical are difficult to sustain.
| |
| Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James GO/AO -- Ground out-fly out ratio GB/FB -- Ground ball-fly ball ratio Batting Average per Balls in Play (BABIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30% Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks) Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats |
Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter . You can e-mail us your Fantasy Baseball questions to DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com . Be sure to put By the Numbers in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state.
