The 2011 Trendy Fantasy Blog
The Trendy Fantasy Blog is your guide to maximizing all of the statistical data available to every Fantasy owner. Our Al Melchior will bring to light trends that he feels every owner should be made aware of to maximize his or her team's potential.
There's the old cliché about traded players getting a change of scenery, but it's not just the "scenery" that can make a difference in a player's value. Park factors can play an important role in a player's production, and when a hitter gets a new home stadium, it can have a profound impact on his overall numbers. For example, Vernon Wells' miserable season isn't just about a player on the wrong side of his peak years; he misses the favorable dimensions of Rogers Centre, his old home park.
The graph below takes a look at this season's splits for six hitters who just acquired a new home address just before the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. These home/away splits may provide some insight as to how a change of scenery -- and, more to the point, a change of home venue -- might affect these regulars over the season's final two months.
Carlos Beltran's move from Citi Field might seem like a non-factor, but his splits indicate that he may miss playing regularly in the Mets' stadium. Prior to getting dealt to the Giants, Beltran's OPS was 163 points higher at home than on the road, and his Isolated Power (the rate at which he gets extra bases) was 100 points higher at Citi Field. Overall, neither Citi Field nor San Francisco's AT&T Park are very good for hitters, but the switch-hitting Beltran hadn't been hurt much by the Mets' home park. It actually plays decently for lefties, which is how Beltran bats the vast majority of the time. AT&T Park is much easier on righties, so Beltran's change of scenery might not be a pleasant one for him.
The Astros' departed outfielders, Michael Bourn and Hunter Pence, were affected differently by Minute Maid Park, though both benefitted from their hitter-friendly environment. Bourn has experienced a mild surge in doubles and triples this season, but it mostly occurred while playing at home. Turner Field is not a very good doubles park, so while Bourn will continue to rack up steals, his batting average and slugging percentage could take a dip.
On the other hand, Pence barely got a power bump playing in Houston, but his average soared in his games there. His .392 BABIP at home looked a little fluky anyway, so even without the move to Philadelphia, Pence's batting average was likely to fall in the coming weeks. Then again, he gets to hit in a much better lineup now, so that should cancel out the impact of his change in home park.
In moving to Pittsburgh, Ryan Ludwick and Derrek Lee are being pulled away from extreme hitting environments. Ludwick played the past year in low-offense PETCO Park, while Lee leaves one of the majors' biggest launching pads in Camden Yards. Oddly, neither hitter seemed to be impacted by their old home ballparks, and even stranger, Ludwick hit for more extra bases at PETCO. Don't look for Ludwick to experience a resurgence with the Pirates, especially since PNC Park is not all that hospitable to hitters. Similarly, Lee's numbers shouldn't be impacted by his departure from Baltimore.
The player who will probably be helped the most by a recent trade is Colby Rasmus. The pitcher-friendly dimensions of Busch Stadium have clearly had a negative impact on Rasmus, who has hit for more power on the road during his nearly three years in the majors. He will now get to play home games at Rogers Centre, which is a great fit for the flyball-hitting outfielder. Rasmus may not be the next Jose Bautista, but his new home digs and the homer-happy approach of batting coach Dwayne Murphy can only help.
July 21, 2011
In the last blog update, I identified the hitters over the last five years who have heated up and cooled off the most late in the season. Now it's time to turn our focus to the pitchers.
The graph below shows the 10 starting pitchers who have lowered their ERA the most over the final two months of the season, as well as the 10 pitchers who have seen their ERA jump the highest in the late season. Between 2006 and 2010, no starting pitcher has improved his performance more from August 1 on than Justin Masterson. The pattern has been a consistent one for Masterson since he arrived in the majors in 2008, but he took his late-season heroics to an extreme last year, when he posted a 2.86 ERA over his final 56 2/3 innings, after compiling a 5.55 ERA in his first 123 1/3 innings. This year has been different for the Indians' starter, as he has performed consistently well throughout the early- and mid-season. It's unthinkable that Masterson will chop more than a run off his ERA, as he has done in past years, given that he already sports a spiffy 2.64 mark.
Strong late-season trends bode well for Hiroki Kuroda, Scott Baker and CC Sabathia, who appear to be getting a head start on their August surges with strong performances in recent weeks. Those trends are also good news for Randy Wolf, who has struggled to find consistency this season, and for Bronson Arroyo, Jake Westbrook and Jake Peavy, who have flat-out failed to meet expectations so far in 2011. A comeback for Westbrook looks especially believable, as his current 5.26 ERA is not far off his usual 4.62 mark through July 31.
At the other end of the spectrum is Yovani Gallardo, whose ERAs over the last five years have spiked higher than any other starter's from August 1 forward. It's hard to know what to make of Gallardo's prospects for the stretch run, as he has not been as good in the first half as he has been in past years. We do know that Fantasy owners don't have a particular reason to bank on a late-season rebound. Josh Johnson and Jeff Niemann have also had late summer swoons, though injuries have played a role in those trends. As injuries have once again wreaked havoc with their current seasons, we can't look to past years' data to project how well Niemann and Johnson (if he returns) might perform later this season.
Despite having a good second half last year, Dan Haren is a notorious slow finisher. He is currently on pace to have his best season ever, but given his history, we shouldn't be surprised if he slows down over the coming weeks. Ricky Romero, Shaun Marcum and Mark Buehrle are all having better seasons so far than they did last year, but we've seen them jump out to good starts before, only to fade late.
A pitcher who tends to heat up in August and September isn't necessarily a good buy-low candidate. For example, Randy Wolf could very well allow fewer hitters to reach base going forward, but he's also been lucky so far to strand 77 percent of his baserunners. A regressing left-on-base rate could neutralize the impact of actual late-season skill improvement. Likewise, slow finishers like Haren aren't a lock to tail off in the weeks ahead, as his late-season success in 2010 proves. However, if you can get fair value (based on their current level of production) for someone like Haren or Romero, the risk of an impending dropoff provides some extra incentive to pull the trigger on a deal. And if Arroyo or Westbrook starts to turn on the jets, their history of late-season production spurts provides a reason to look into a making a waiver pickup.
July 15, 2011
In the most recent By the Numbers , I unearthed a statistical trend that could give Adam Dunn's Fantasy owners some hope. Owners can take heart in knowing that Dunn's sagging power numbers are tied to a dip in his home run per flyball (HR/FB) ratio -- a statistic that tends to fluctuate from month to month and year to year. Before you pencil Dunn in for even a 25-homer season, you should know that there is another way to read his tea leaves.
Over the previous five seasons, Dunn has been one of the weakest finishers among all of the hitters in the majors. Once the calendar turns to August, his OPS has been 108 points below where it's been through the end of July. The graph below shows the 10 hitters whose production, as measured by OPS, has fallen the farthest after July 31, going back to 2006, and it also includes the 10 batters who have picked up their pace the fastest over the season's final two months.
If the past pattern continues to hold, Dunn's misery will persist on into the dog days, while strong seasons for Justin Upton and Ben Zobrist could end on a sour note. By far, the hitter with the deepest late-season swoons has been Justin Morneau. Owners may already have diminished expectations for the first baseman, who is recovering from neck surgery as well as a sprained wrist, but now there is one more reason to have doubts about Morneau's productivity once he returns to action, possibly sometime in August.
On a happier note, a number of struggling players may have better days in the offing. Ryan Howard, Carlos Pena, Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Ruiz have all had down years so far, but August and September are when these players really start to cook. With the latter weeks of the season approaching, Mark Ellis finds himself with three reasons to celebrate. Having recently moved from the A's to the Rockies, Ellis leaves behind a lineup and a stadium that squelched his offensive numbers to head for the thin air of Colorado. He has also been getting regular playing time as the Rockies' starting second baseman. Factor in that Ellis typically saves his best production for late in the season, and owners have a bevy of reasons to expect the nine-year veteran to have increased value down the stretch.
Still, none of these players has owned the home stretch in recent years like Jay Bruce has. Over his first three seasons, Bruce's OPS through July 31 has been a mediocre .735, but from August 1 on, he has hit like an All-Star with a .957 mark. Given that Bruce was, in fact, an All-Star this year, owners might think that there is no room for Bruce to get hotter in the second half, but his OPS to date is .852, well below his typical late-season level. While Bruce is already on pace to shatter his career best of 25 home runs, he has plenty of room to pick up his pace for singles and doubles, especially if he can raise his 17 percent line drive rate.
The players featured in the graph have established their patterns of mismatched starts and finishes over a large sample of plate appearances, but that doesn't mean that they are locks to surge or fade down the stretch this year. It would be safer to sell high on a hitter who shows signs of overperforming, such as Hunter Pence (.392 BABIP) or Logan Morrison (13 percent HR/FB), than to deal Upton or Zobrist banking on a late-season collapse. However, these patterns provide one more set of information as you try to project how your players or trade targets will perform over the latter portion of the season.
| |
| xFIP: Also known as Expected Fielding Independent Pitching. It is an estimate of what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based on factors that a pitcher can control, such as strikeouts, walks and flyballs. xFIP is a derivative of FIP, which was developed by Tom Tango. Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James GO/AO -- Ground out-fly out ratio GB/FB -- Ground ball-fly ball ratio Batting Average per Balls in Play (BABIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30% Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks) Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats |
Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter . You can e-mail us your Fantasy Baseball questions to DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com . Be sure to put By the Numbers in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state.
