April 24, 2011

Week 4 Fantasy Hitting Planner

By Scott White | Fantasy Writer
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The Fantasy Baseball Hitting Planner is your guide to setting your lineup for the upcoming scoring period. Every week, we'll give you the latest on injuries, lineup changes, streaks and matchups, highlighting the players at each position who might surprise or disappoint as a result. NOTE: The Planner will be updated with the latest information every Sunday prior to lineup deadlines.

Any players not listed here fall into the "status quo" category, meaning you should take your usual approach with them.

All statistics are updated through Saturday, April 23.

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Catcher

Hank Conger has been getting more and more starts for the Angels recently and has been hitting for average and power just like he did in the minor leagues. His offensive potential could make him a serious asset in Fantasy, but manager Mike Scioscia -- himself a former catcher -- has always preferred the defense of Jeff Mathis. Until that changes, Conger is an option better left for deeper leagues, but he's worth watching. Veteran Jason Varitek has also seen an increase in playing time recently, but more for his work with the pitching staff than his offensive capabilities. Jarrod Saltalamacchia has been reduced to every-other-game status, but given his poor performance at the plate, you had probably given up on him in Fantasy already.

Must-Start Options: Buster Posey, Brian McCann, Carlos Santana, Miguel Montero, Russell Martin

Heating up
Matt Wieters: .310 (9 for 29), 3 HRs, 9 RBI, 1.099 OPS in nine games
Russell Martin: .367 (11 for 30), 5 HRs, 11 RBI, 1.406 OPS in nine games
Jonathan Lucroy: .355 (11 for 31), 1 HR, .896 OPS during eight-game hit streak
Alex Avila: .417 (10 for 24), 1.106 OPS in seven games

Cooling off
Jorge Posada: .122 (5 for 41), 3 HRs, 15 Ks in 12 games
Miguel Montero: .160 (4 for 25), two extra-base hits in eight games
Carlos Ruiz: 0 for 14 in five games

Worth a second look
Mike Napoli (67 percent started): Napoli's irregular playing time has made him a frustrating player to own in Fantasy, but the matchups are in his favor this week. The Rangers face three left-handers, which is how he usually gets his at-bats. If he can finagle five starts at catcher, first base or DH during the seven-game week, you'll be glad you started him in Fantasy. His power potential is still second to none at the position.
J.P. Arencibia (45 percent): Another catcher who sits frequently but whose power potential is sky-high, Arencibia doesn't need to play the full seven games to take advantage of the matchups this week. The Blue Jays are at Texas for four games and at New York for three, playing in two of the AL's better hitter's parks, and are facing struggling hurlers Colby Lewis, Alexi Ogando and Ivan Nova.

Approach with caution
Nick Hundley (73 percent started): One of the season's biggest surprise starters, Hundley is experiencing something of a course correction, posting a .577 OPS over his last nine games. With Derek Lowe, Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson, Ted Lilly and Hiroki Kuroda all on tap for a six-game week, he'll have a hard time getting back on track.
Carlos Ruiz (59 percent): Ruiz's ceiling isn't high enough for you to start him when he's cold, and that's clearly what he is now. Up and down, up and down -- he can be pretty frustrating if you're relying on him regularly at catcher. Ever think of upgrading?

Injury concerns
Chris Iannetta was out of the lineup Saturday and Sunday with a lower back strain. It's the type of injury that could sideline him into this week even though it's unlikely to put him on the DL. His poor batting average makes him a player you'd probably avoid anyway, but he has been surprisingly productive in Fantasy because of his walks. Jose Morales has added value this week in deeper NL-only leagues just in case Iannetta does miss extended time ... Joe Mauer has begun rehabbing after going on the DL with leg weakness April 14. The Twins are still hopeful the weakness was mostly the result of the flu, but they still don't have a timetable for his return. Sounds like you should keep him reserved ... Victor Martinez went on the DL this week with a strained groin, further depleting the weak catcher pool. Since he was mostly playing DH and not catcher, his absence doesn't even open the door for someone else at the position. AL-only owners are simply out of luck.

First base

With the return of Cody Ross from the DL on Wednesday, the Giants gave in and demoted struggling rookie Brandon Belt to Triple-A Fresno. That doesn't mean he won't still make a Fantasy impact at some point this season. It just means he's not ready yet. Still, you'd have to have a pretty deep roster to stash him in a seasonal mixed league. Aubrey Huff, who had been playing the outfield, moves back to first base with Belt out of the picture. A minor wrist injury opened the door for Casey Kotchman to replace Dan Johnson at first base in Tampa Bay -- at least for now. That's not so much an endorsement of Kotchman as an indictment of Johnson, though. You can leave both for AL-only leagues. In San Diego, Jorge Cantu has begun spelling the struggling Brad Hawpe even against right-handers. Neither player has much mixed-league appeal at this time in their careers.

Must-Start Options: Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Mark Teixeira, Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez, Buster Posey, Kevin Youkilis, Ryan Howard, Lance Berkman

Heating up
Ike Davis: .381 (8 for 21), 3 HRs, 1.321 OPS in six games
Mark Teixeira: .471 (7 for 17), 2 HRs, 1.624 OPS in five games
Brett Wallace: .476 (10 for 21), 4 2Bs in five games

Cooling off
Carlos Pena: .163 (7 for 43), no extra-base hits, 16 Ks in 15 games
Adam Dunn: .074 (2 for 27), .249 OPS, 14 Ks in seven games
Mark Trumbo: 0 for 13 in four games

Worth a second look
Aubrey Huff (72 percent started): After going his first 14 games without a homer, Huff has hit two in his last six. If that's a sign of him waking up at the plate, he should be able to take advantage of matchups against the Pirates and Nationals this week. All six of the Giants' games are on the road, where his OPS was .948 last season.
Freddie Freeman (37 percent): He needed a week or two to get his feet wet, but Freeman is suddenly looking like the natural hitter he was in the minors, batting .341 (15 for 44) with three homers and a 1.066 OPS over his last 15 games. With five right-handers on schedule this week, the left-handed hitter should be able to keep rolling and is worth a look even in mixed leagues.

Approach with caution
Justin Morneau (70 percent started): As if Morneau's return from a concussion wasn't going poorly enough, the former AL MVP recently came down with a full-blown case of the flu. He received multiple IVs but still lost some weight during the ordeal, sapping him of even more of his strength. He's far from a lost cause for Fantasy purposes, but he has a rocky road ahead. Time to consider benching him.
Brett Wallace (19 percent): Taking a flier on Wallace might seem like a good idea based on his hot hitting last week, but keep in mind most of his damage came against right-handed pitchers. He has a career .568 OPS against lefties and even sits for them occasionally. The Astros face three left-handers this week -- three that should last pretty deep into the game in Jaime Garcia, Randy Wolf and Chris Narveson.

Injury concerns
No injuries at first base, but Justin Smoak is on the bereavement list. He'll likely return to the lineup Tuesday at Detroit, giving him a chance to play a full week still. Adam Kennedy has hit well in his absence, but you wouldn't want to activate him even in NL-only leagues since he figures to go back to a utility role. Smoak is still developing, but he has shown signs of being at least a viable option in mixed leagues this season.

Second base

Michael Cuddyer got his fifth start at second base Saturday, giving him eligibility at the position in standard Fantasy leagues. Of course, the position was pretty deep without Cuddyer, but Fantasy owners won't turn down another option. The former 30-homer man is batting .333 (6 for 18) with two home runs over his last five games, so now wouldn't be a bad time to activate him in mixed leagues. With the Tigers apparently growing tired of Will Rhymes' lack of hitting, Ryan Raburn has started three of the last five games at second base. He's not the best there defensively, but if it gets his bat in the lineup, Fantasy owners won't complain. His power potential gives him plenty of sleeper appeal, especially if he gains eligibility at the position. In New York, the Mets abruptly pulled the plug on the Brad Emaus experiment, returning the Rule 5 pick to the Blue Jays, who then dealt him to the Rockies. The platoon of Daniel Murphy and Justin Turner in Emaus' absence shouldn't generate much interest in Fantasy, though Murphy has modest pop and is a decent enough hitter for NL-only use.

Must-Start Options: Robinson Cano, Dustin Pedroia, Ian Kinsler, Dan Uggla, Rickie Weeks, Brandon Phillips, Martin Prado

Heating up
Brian Roberts: .357 (15 for 42), 1 HR, 0 SBs, 3 BBs in 10 games
Freddy Sanchez: .343 (12 for 35), 1 HR, 6 runs in eight games
Juan Uribe: .435 (10 for 23), 2 HRs, 9 RBI, .696 SLG in six games

Cooling off
Howard Kendrick: .180 (9 for 50), .641 OPS, 16 Ks in 13 games
Chris Getz: .091 (3 for 33), one extra-base hit in 10 games
Gordon Beckham: .042 (1 for 24) in seven games

Worth a second look
Kelly Johnson (65 percent started): Johnson is notoriously streaky, so his sudden power surge after weeks of disappointment was as predictable as the sun rising. The good news is when he gets hot, he usually stays hot for a while. With seven games at home this week, where he produced a .976 OPS last season, you'd need a good excuse not to start him.
Freddy Sanchez (40 percent): Sanchez continues to pile up hits batting second for the Giants, and he obviously has a track record as a contact hitter, having won the batting title in 2006. His lack of pop makes him still a borderline guy in mixed leagues, but in a week he's facing Charlie Morton, James McDonald, Jeff Karstens, Jason Marquis, John Lannan and Jordan Zimmermann, you could do a lot worse.

Approach with caution
Brian Roberts (91 percent started): Roberts may seem like an obvious choice to start considering his spike in power and recent hot hitting, but his lack of walks is a troubling sign and an indication he's still not the player he was before his injury-plagued 2010. Facing the top three in the Red Sox rotation to begin the week, he's a candidate to disappoint.
Orlando Hudson (26 percent): Hudson had a nice little hot streak the second week of the season, but he's 1 for 23 in his last eight games. Since he doesn't offer much power or speed, he has to be hot for you to start him, and he's unlikely to get back on track against the Braves and Dodgers rotations this week.

Injury concerns
Juan Uribe hasn't started a game since Friday because of a tight right thigh. Neither he nor the Dodgers seem particularly concerned about the injury, but it's probably enough to keep you away from a borderline player like him in mixed leagues, hot streak or no hot streak ... Aaron Hill finally went on the disabled list Sunday because of a lingering hamstring injury. The light-hitting John McDonald will likely get most of the starts in his absence, but he's just a desperation play even in deeper AL-only leagues.

Third base

The Rockies made the somewhat surprising decision to option Ian Stewart to the minors on Tuesday. Stewart had been a regular part of the lineup since midway through the 2008 season, but his frequent slumps made him a liability and no better than a platoon player to open the season. He still has good power potential and could still make a splash in Fantasy this season, but you don't have much incentive to stash him in mixed leagues. Mike Aviles, who was considered the regular third baseman coming into the season, is losing more and more at-bats to Wilson Betemit in recent days. Aviles' slow start likely has something to do with it. These two could steal at-bats from each other all season -- with second baseman Chris Getz also part of the three-man rotation -- so neither has much value in mixed leagues. Slumping White Sox rookie Brent Morel continues to lose at-bats to Mark Teahen and Omar Vizquel. As less than a full-time player, he's just a low-end option even in AL-only leagues.

Must-Start Options: Alex Rodriguez, Jose Bautista, David Wright, Kevin Youkilis, Adrian Beltre, Martin Prado, Michael Young

Heating up
Michael Young: .434 (23 for 53), 1 3B, 6 2Bs, 3 SBs during 13-game hit streak
Placido Polanco: .390 (16 for 41), 2 HRs, 3 SBs, 5 BBs, 2 Ks in 11 games
Casey McGehee: .350 (14 for 40), 1 HR, .920 OPS during nine-game hit streak
Casey Blake: .500 (9 for 18), 2 HRs, 8 runs scored, 1.405 OPS in four games

Cooling off
Mark Reynolds: 0 for 19, 7 Ks in six games
Chipper Jones: .143 (3 for 21) in six games
Chase Headley: .071 (1 for 14), .349 OPS in six games

Worth a second look
Placido Polanco (82 percent started): No sense going against the No. 1 third baseman (well, aside from Jose Bautista) in Head-to-Head leagues so far. Polanco may not offer much power or speed, but when his slap-happy approach is working the way it is now, he's about as reliable as third basemen get. You could do a lot worse at one of the weaker positions in Fantasy.
Ryan Roberts (17 percent): Roberts is slowly creeping into the picture at third base, outshining the ancient Melvin Mora with every start he gets. Roberts has a limited ceiling, but if his performance in the six games Mora missed with a foot injury is a sign of things to come, he offers enough speed and pop to have some sleeper appeal in deeper leagues.

Approach with caution
Mark Reynolds (64 percent started): Another year, another uniform, same old set of problems for Reynolds. He's whiffing just about every other at-bat again and not taking advantage of the few times he makes contact. His big-time power will make him a useful Fantasy option once he gets going, but with Clay Buchholz, Josh Beckett and Jon Lester on the schedule, that time probably isn't this week.
Chase Headley (35 percent): Not only is Headley struggling, but he missed both Friday and Saturday with an illness. He may not be back to full strength. Plus, the Padres face quality pitchers in every one of their games this week, going against the Braves and Padres pitching staffs. Headley hasn't shown much power in his major-league career, so he's only worth starting when the splits and matchups are in his favor.

Injury concerns
Evan Longoria, who has been out since April 2 with a strained oblique, was able to take batting practice Sunday and is close to beginning a rehab assignment. The Rays have already said he won't return before the homestand that begins April 29, though, so he won't have much chance to contribute in Fantasy this week ... Ryan Zimmerman, who is dealing with an abdominal strain, hasn't done any baseball activities yet. You shouldn't count on him returning before Fantasy Week 5 (May 2-8) ... Jayson Nix, who has been playing virtually every day for Toronto despite his reserve role coming out of spring training, had to go on the DL after a knee-to-knee collision Friday. Edwin Encarnacion would likely see more at-bats in Nix's absence if he wasn't dealing with a sore left wrist -- an area that has given him trouble over the last few years. The two injuries mean utility player Mike McCoy might get significant playing time, not that it matters for anyone outside of AL-only leagues ... Melvin Mora hasn't played in a week because of a jammed foot. He isn't expected to go on the DL, but even when he's healthy, you have to figure he'll at least split at-bats with Ryan Roberts, who has been the far more productive of the two.

Shortstop

The time has come for Jed Lowrie. Seizing the opportunity for everyday at-bats with Marco Scutaro struggling, he did everything Fantasy owners ever hoped he would do and more, turning the entire Red Sox offense around with his hot hitting. He has elite OPS potential for a shortstop -- his .907 OPS last year would have ranked him second to Troy Tulowitzki if he had enough at-bats to qualify -- so you shouldn't wait any longer to pick him up in Fantasy.

Must-Start Options: Hanley Ramirez, Troy Tulowitzki, Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins, Starlin Castro

Heating up
Starlin Castro: .393 (35 for 89), 1 HR, 3 SBs, .947 OPS in 20 games
Jose Reyes: .345 (29 for 84), 1 HR, 8 SBs in 19 games
Jed Lowrie: .477 (21 for 44), 3 HRs, 12 RBI, 13 runs scored, 1.262 OPS in 12 games
Jason Bartlett: .393 (11 for 28), 1 SB in seven games

Cooling off
Hanley Ramirez: .087 (2 for 23), 2 SBs in seven games
Miguel Tejada: .095 (2 for 21), .182 OPS in six games
Derek Jeter: .143 (3 for 21), 0 Ks in five games

Worth a second look
Yunel Escobar (72 percent started): Escobar's pace has slowed down since the start of the season, but he's still hitting over .290 with an OPS over .800. With four games at Texas and three games at New York, he's playing in the right ballparks for a big bounce-back week. He's not exactly facing the meat of the Rangers' and Yankees' staffs either.
Jed Lowrie (70 percent): Like this wasn't obvious. Not only is Lowrie one of the hottest hitters in baseball at one of the weakest positions in baseball, but he's a long overdue top prospect who's picking up where he left off last year. If all goes according to plan, this is the last time he'll be overlooked enough to fit into the "worth a second look" category. Get him active. Get him active now.

Approach with caution
Maicer Izturis (68 percent started): So far in standard Head-to-Head leagues, Izturis is a top-10 shortstop, second baseman and third baseman, and hopefully that versatility will give him all the at-bats he needs to remain in the top 10 at each position. But with Erick Aybar's return from a strained oblique Wednesday, all bets are off. Aybar has started all four games at shortstop since returning, bumping Izturis all over the diamond. No doubt, Izturis will still play more often than not, but with less than everyday at-bats, his Fantasy value takes a big hit. Until this situation sorts itself out, you might want to avoid him in mixed leagues.
Jason Bartlett (15 percent): Bartlett's recent hot stretch might look enticing for the many owners with a hole to fill at shortstop, but he has only one extra-base hit this season. Those singles aren't going to be as common against pitchers like Derek Lowe, Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson, Ted Lilly and Hiroki Kuroda this week. You can leave Bartlett for deeper leagues.

Injury concerns
None.

Outfield

Jason Bay made his return from a strained left rib cage Thursday and has looked good so far. Given his disappointing 2010, you don't necessarily have to start him right away in mixed leagues, but he has too much upside to go unowned. Also making his return last week was Cody Ross, who had been out all season with a strained right calf. He should get regular at-bats now that the Giants have demoted rookie Brandon Belt, but he's no more than a matchups type in mixed leagues. Jerry Sands is the first big rookie -- as far as hitters go, anyway -- to get called up midseason, solidifying the Dodgers' left-field situation. His minor-league numbers make him out to be an OPS monster, but he hasn't gotten much love in the prospect rankings. You can leave him for NL-only leagues until he heats up.

Must-Start Options: Carlos Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Ryan Braun, Matt Holliday, Jose Bautista, Shin-Soo Choo, Andrew McCutchen, Shane Victorino, Jayson Werth, Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, Andre Ethier, Nelson Cruz, Matt Kemp, Ichiro Suzuki, Carlos Quentin, Lance Berkman, Alex Gordon

Heating up
Andre Ethier: .408 (31 for 76), 2 HRs, 1.075 OPS during 20-game hit streak
Alex Gordon: .397 (29 for 73), 1 HR, 2 SBs, 1.039 OPS during 17-game hit streak
Jeff Francoeur: .367 (18 for 49), 2 HRs, 13 RBI, .633 SLG during 13-game hit streak
Lance Berkman: .474 (18 for 38), 6 HRs, 14 RBI, 13 runs scored, 1.561 OPS in 10 games
Matt Holliday: .455 (15 for 33), 1 HR, 5 2Bs, 6 BBs, 4 Ks in nine games
Curtis Granderson: .393 (11 for 28), 4 HRs, .964 SLG, 3 Ks in seven games
Jason Kubel: .400 (10 for 25), 2 HRs, 1 SB, 1.168 OPS in seven games
Ryan Braun: .520 (13 for 25), 3 HRs, 1.527 OPS in six games
Jose Bautista: .615 (8 for 13), 4 HRs, 5 BBs, 2 Ks in four games

Cooling off
Carl Crawford: .154 (12 for 78), three extra-base hits, 4 SBs in 19 games
Torii Hunter: .106 (5 for 47), 2 HR, 11 Ks in 12 games
B.J. Upton: .143 (5 for 35), one extra-base hit, 4 SBs, 14 Ks in 10 games
Raul Ibanez: .111 (4 for 36), no extra-base hits, 13 Ks in 10 games
Brett Gardner: .097 (3 for 31), 1 HR, 0 SBs, 0 BBs, 9 Ks in nine games
Chris Young: .121 (4 for 33), 1 HR, 0 SBs, 1 BB, 10 Ks in eight games
Bobby Abreu: .069 (2 for 29), one extra-base hit, .309 OPS in eight games
Juan Pierre: .154 (4 for 26), 1 SB, .395 OPS in seven games
Alex Rios: 0 for 20 in six games

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Worth a second look
Nick Swisher (74 percent started): After a slow start, Swisher appears to have gotten back on track, batting .333 (7 for 21) with six walks and only one strikeout over his last six games. The Yankees play all seven games at home this week, facing pitchers like Edwin Jackson and Ricky Romero rather than true aces, so now is the time to get Swisher active again.
Vernon Wells (60 percent): Wells couldn't buy a hit the first two weeks of the season. Now that he suddenly can again, recently putting together a seven-game hitting streak during which he hit .333 (10 for 30), he has some ground to make up. The streaky slugger could be in for a course correction. You drafted him too high not to roll the dice on him now.
Seth Smith (30 percent): Smith missed a couple games recently with a sore groin, but he has been playing virtually every day when healthy and putting up big power numbers. He's a talented enough hitter that he doesn't even need a bunch of home runs to be productive, though he's capable of those too. With favorable matchups against the Cubs' fill-in starters and the weak Pirates staff, he's a sleeper for all leagues this week.
Nate McLouth (21 percent): The move from second in the batting order to eighth seems to have relaxed McLouth, who has hit .350 (7 for 20) with a .480 on-base percentage since his "demotion." You still probably wouldn't want to activate him outside of deeper leagues, but he's showing he might not be a lost cause this year.
Matt Joyce (9 percent): As the Rays go, so goes Joyce, who has heated up after a slow start, batting .415 (17 for 41) with six doubles and two steals over his last 12 games. He has yet to homer, but his track record says he'll hit his share of long balls. He's also playing more or less every day with Evan Longoria hurt and Manny Ramirez out of the picture. With his combination of power and patience, Joyce could make an impact even in mixed leagues.

Approach with caution
Michael Bourn (72 percent started): Bourn has been carrying Fantasy owners lately, batting .357 (10 for 28) with six steals over his last eight games, but with a low-OBP guy like him, you never want to get too comfortable. With three lefties on the schedule this week -- and three off to especially good starts in Jaime Garcia, Randy Wolf and Chris Narveson -- you might want to look into other options. Bourn hit .229 off lefties last season and has hit .233 off them for his career.
Jonny Gomes (64 percent): It only took a week of right-handers to slow down Gomes, whose OPS was 147 points lower against them than against lefties last season. Guess what? He faces five more right-handers in six games this week, including some pretty tough ones in Yovani Gallardo, Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco. He's no more than a matchups guy in Fantasy, so sit him now.
Adam Jones (62 percent): Jones has been showing small signs of life recently, but you wouldn't want to trust an all-or-nothing player like him in a week beginning with Clay Buchholz, Josh Beckett and Jon Lester. You'll get your chance to start him, but now isn't it.
Coco Crisp (44 percent): Crisp's steals have kept him plenty productive in Fantasy, but the Athletics' matchups this week might prevent him from even getting on base. They face dual aces to begin the week in Jered Weaver and Dan Haren, and the Texas trio of C.J. Wilson, Colby Lewis and Matt Harrison is pretty tough as well. You can probably do better in mixed leagues.
Brett Gardner (43 percent): Oy. That's all that needs to be said about Gardner's season so far. Awful numbers, and now he's sitting for Andruw Jones against lefties. You should only start Gardner as an act of desperation.

Injury concerns
Logan Morrison suffered a Lisfranc sprain in his left foot Tuesday and is expected to spend 2-4 weeks on the DL. He's obviously worth stashing given his hot start to the season. Emilio Bonifacio figures to get the majority of the at-bats in his absence and has intriguing speed, but he's not a good enough hitter for standard mixed-league use ... Angel Pagan had to go on the disabled list Friday with a side injury, and the Mets have been starting Jason Pridie in his place. Pridie was once a pretty good prospect in the Rays organization, but at age 27, he's unlikely to become an impact player in Fantasy. You can leave him for NL-only leagues ... Corey Hart, who has been out all season with a strained oblique, has begun a rehab assignment and could return to the lineup as early as Tuesday. Since you may only get him for half a week -- and a rusty half a week at that -- you should only activate him in deeper leagues ... Delmon Young joined Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau with the flu, missing five straight games, and is also dealing with a rib injury. You don't have much reason to give him the benefit of the doubt in mixed leagues. He's hitting only .228 so far. Willie Bloomquist has been out of the lineup three straight days because of a hamstring injury, but the early-season surprise has kind of tailed off in recent days. You probably wouldn't want to start him in mixed leagues even if he was fully healthy.

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