By the Numbers: Separating fact from fiction
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It's easy to dismiss unexpected performances in Fantasy when we have yet to flip the calendar to May.
We didn't expect either Michael Bourn or Alex Gordon to be hitting in the .300s, but if you own either player or are thinking about acquiring one of them, you might as well try to make some sense of their early success. The same goes for Dan Uggla and Chris Johnson, both of whom have been disappointing.
To help sort out the trends worth following from the ones worth ignoring, we are dusting off our Lucky/Unlucky Batter Tool. Every major leaguer who meets a designated at-bat minimum is displayed in a set of two scatterplots. In both views, our set of hitters is arrayed according to their batting average on balls in play (BABIP). On the left, you can also locate batters according to their line drive rate, while on the right, you can see them according to their popup rate. BABIP, when used in conjunction with these two batted ball rates, can tell us whether a hitter may have experienced some good or bad luck on balls in play. A hitter's BABIP tends to rise with his line drive rate, while decreasing when popups are more frequent. When BABIP is not in synch with these tendencies, a player will wind up in either the "likely lucky" or "likely unlucky" box.
If a hitter winds up in the "likely lucky" box on both views, there is a very good chance that he is due for a decline in batting average, and probably in runs scored and RBI as well. If he is in both "likely unlucky" boxes, better times are likely to be ahead.
Finally, you can learn more about whether a hitter is due for a change in fortune by clicking on his mark in either view. With a simple click, a trend graph showing his recent line drive and popup rates appears in a third view at the bottom of the tool. For example, the scatterplots show us that Ryan Ludwick has earned his .195 batting average with a high popup rate and mediocre line drive rate. However, his trend graphs illustrate how these unimpressive batted ball rates are not as good as his typical rates. Even though he hasn't hit like a player with a .264 career batting average, his trends show that there is hope for a rebound if he can revert to his prior form.
To find Ludwick or any other hitter, you can enter his name into the search field at the top of the tool. His mark will appear in the line drive graph on the left. Then click on the green mark to isolate him in the popup graph on the right and to retrieve his trend graphs at the bottom.
Below is some analysis for just some of the more notable fast and slow starters this season, as we'll look at some players who are likely lucky, some who are likely unlucky and some who show few signs of being either lucky or unlucky.
Stats are for all games played through Monday, April 25.
Who has probably been lucky?
Peter Bourjos, OF, L.A. Angels: With Bourjos batting just a hair under .300, you'd never know that he has struck out in nearly one-third of his 77 at-bats. He can pull off a batting average this high with all of those whiffs if he scorches a lot of line drives and avoids frequent popups. Any BABIP over .400 should raise a red flag, but since Bourjos doesn't have a favorable line drive or popup rate, his .420 mark looks especially fluky. His history tells us that he could make more contact going forward, but even if that happens, the second-year player's batting average will probably tumble.
Michael Bourn, OF, Houston: Is this the year that Bourn translates his speed into a .300 batting average? The way that he has achieved it so far, it doesn't look likely. To his credit, the slap- hitting Bourn has yet to pop out this year, but the career .265 hitter has rarely popped out in the past. The big difference for him so far this year is a .467 batting average on flyballs, which is more than 200 points above his norm.
Stephen Drew, SS, Arizona: Drew has had enough peaks and valleys in his career that a .328 batting average seems plausible enough, especially now that he is in his prime. So far this year, though, his popup and line drive rates are going in the wrong direction. It's early yet, so we could see those rates get back to their normal levels, but even so, the "normal" Drew is a pretty average hitter on balls in play. Given the lack of shortstops playing at a high level, now is a great time to test the market for Drew, as he has all the appearance of a Fantasy elite at his position right now. That appearance, however, is most likely a mirage.
Seth Smith, OF, Colorado: I really didn't want to include Smith in this column, especially as one of the "likely lucky" players. He's been underrated for a couple of years, and I don't want to put a damper on the admiration he is just starting to get from Fantasy owners. However, it's hard to ignore that he has found his way into both of our tool's "likely lucky" boxes, thanks to an inflated .383 BABIP. Smith doesn't deserve a "fluke alert" so much as a gentle warning. Normally a decent contact hitter, his strikeout rate has crept just beyond the high side of normal. For now, we can call that a small-sample aberration, but just be aware of the potential for a batting average decline, as his current .303 average is being propped up by his dubious success on balls in play.
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Who has probably been unlucky?
Chone Figgins, 3B, Seattle: Figgins deserves a spotlight, because after last season's disappointing results, it would be easy to take his poor start as a sign of steep decline. In fact, you could take his elevated popup rate as evidence that he's starting to lose it at the plate, but that development is outweighed by a solid line drive rate and a dramatic reduction in strikeouts. At this point, there are more signs that Figgins can get back near his typical batting average in the .280s than repeat last year's .259 letdown.
Chris Johnson, 3B, Houston: The strikeout-prone Johnson had his doubters last season when he batted .308, and now that he is below the Mendoza Line, those doubters may be preparing a healthy serving of "I told you so." It's true that Johnson's line drive and popup rates are less favorable than they were last year, but both are still better-than-average. He probably won't repeat a .393 BABIP, but he certainly doesn't deserve his current .235 rate. Johnson is too much of a ground ball hitter to be a 20-homer threat, but so far he has been getting robbed of some gap doubles. Look for his batting average and Isolated Power to rise sharply in the coming weeks.
Mark Reynolds, 3B, Baltimore: The hot corner is more like the jinxed corner this season, as Reynolds is the last of a trio of star-crossed third basemen featured here. Reynolds' .179 batting average looks like a second helping of last season's misery, but his strikeout, line drive and popup rates are all at levels that are close to or better than his pre-2010 marks. The former Diamondback is currently the most deactivated player who is not on the DL, but owners should stick it out with him. It appears that his biggest problem right now is just some bad luck.
Adam LaRoche, 1B, Washington: Many owners know that LaRoche is a perennial slow starter, but there may be something going on for him besides a typically sluggish April. For a guy with a .232 batting average, LaRoche is doing a whole lot of things right. He is striking out at a career-low rate, walking much more often, popping up less, and maintaining his robust home run per flyball and line drive rates. His .232 BABIP is far from the lowest in baseball, but LaRoche just may be the unluckiest hitter in the majors so far.
Who has been neither lucky nor unlucky (based on current batted ball rates)?
Dan Uggla, 2B, Atlanta: Uggla has been such a consistent producer that things have to turn around for him eventually. So far, though, he has produced little beside his five home runs. The Braves' new second baseman is hitting a lot more flyballs than usual this season, and more popups in particular. Take away his five dingers, and Uggla has exactly one base hit on a flyball this season. Some of that could be bad luck, but he needs to help his own cause by hitting more liners and fewer pop flies.
Chris Young, OF, Arizona: No one has popped out more over the last three years than Vernon Wells, but Young looks primed to take over the King of Pop's throne at his current rate. The speed/power threat has turned more than one out of every four of his balls in play into infield flies. In general, Young has been less patient this season, taking fewer pitches and walking less, and he's only attempted one steal, so there are a number of signs that point to Young being one-trick homer-hitting pony.
Alex Gordon, OF, Kansas City: So what's behind Gordon's promising early start? Power hitting hasn't played a role; it's actually something far more mundane. Gordon owes much of his .356 batting average to old-fashioned ground ball hitting. With fewer flyouts in general, and popups in particular, he's putting the ball on the ground and to good effect, with a .324 batting average on ground balls. That's not too far above the marks he set in '08 and '09, so if he continues to pair this trend with a reduced strikeout rate, we just may have a legitimate .300 hitter on our hands.
Matt Joyce, OF, Tampa Bay: Joyce has already hit nearly two-thirds as many liners as he did all of last season, even though he's accumulated fewer than 30 percent of the at-bats. While he has never been a line drive hitter as a major leaguer, he does have a track record of this in the minors, according to data from the StatCorner website. Joyce won't maintain an outrageous 41 percent liner rate, nor should he, as it is robbing him of some home run opportunities. However, if he can find a happy medium between a focus on home run and gap power, Joyce could become relevant to mixed league owners.
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| Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James GO/AO -- Ground out-fly out ratio GB/FB -- Ground ball-fly ball ratio Batting Average per Balls in Play (BABIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30% Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks) Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats |
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