May 5, 2011

Dear Mr. Fantasy: Tricks of the trade market

By Scott White | Fantasy Writer
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When a Fantasy owner has a need, his first move is usually to check the waiver wire. When he inevitably doesn't like what he sees there -- because, let's face it, the well is running dry now -- a trade is the most logical next step.

Hey, no objections here. Trading is a legitimate way to build a championship team and half of what we talk about during the long season.

But when you make a trade based on need, you put yourself in a position of vulnerability, opening the door for exploitation. In short, you're more likely to get ripped off. You're the one with a need to meet, after all. The other guy is just meeting a want.

And while beggars can't be choosers, the opposite is true too.

Please analyze this trade in my 10-team, 5x5 Rotisserie league. A team that needs help in batting average and stolen bases trades Paul Konerko, Ian Kinsler, Adam Jones and Ricky Nolasco to a team that needs help in home runs, ERA and WHIP for Adrian Gonzalez, Ichiro Suzuki, Howard Kendrick and Chad Billingsley. Is this a fair trade for both teams? -- Pete DeBiase, Havertown, Pa.

SW: It's fair in the sense that it shouldn't incite a revolt or turn the league standings upside down, but I'd strongly prefer the side getting Gonzalez and Suzuki, regardless of my needs.

Needs still don't mean much at this point in the season. Hanley Ramirez is still batting .194. Carlos Pena still has just one home run. Chances are the people who drafted those players rank near the very bottom of those categories because they haven't gotten anywhere close to expected production yet. By the time these early-season streaks level off, who knows how different the standings will look? If you liked the balance of your Rotisserie team coming into the season, you only risk destroying a good thing by buying into the streaks now.

And even if we were at a point in the season when trades could be entirely needs-based, I'm not sure the team getting Konerko and Kinsler did much to meet its needs. Konerko, Kinsler and Jones may technically combine for more homers than Gonzalez, Suzuki and Kendrick, but Gonzalez is the best individual power source of the bunch, and Jones' power isn't necessarily better than what you could find off the waiver wire. Meanwhile, Billingsley is probably the safer bet for ERA than Nolasco, so no ground gained there.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again: The side that gets the best player in a deal is usually the side that wins the deal, especially in a league as shallow as yours. Gonzalez is clearly the best player in the deal, and though Kinsler is probably the second-best, Suzuki is close enough to make the winner here a closed case.

Those three are probably the only three whose production you'd have no hope of matching off the waiver wire in a 10-team league (some might include Konerko, but I'm not quite there yet), and the more of those players you have, the better off you'll be.

I'm trying to figure out who to drop for Jake Peavy since he should return in the next week or two. As of right now, my rotation consists of Jered Weaver, Jon Lester, John Danks, Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda, Daniel Hudson and Ian Kennedy. Would dropping Kuroda, Hudson or Kennedy make the most sense? How effective do you think Peavy will be for the rest of the season? -- Dave Simolike, Philadelphia

SW: I have to admit I'm not particularly enthusiastic about dropping Kuroda, Hudson or Kennedy, and I have my doubts about whether Peavy can outproduce any of them this season. Shoulder surgeries don't have the best track record among pitchers, more often than not leaving them lesser versions of themselves, and Peavy's specific procedure is unprecedented in the baseball world.

True, he looked great in limited appearances this spring. His velocity was up, his strikeout rate was fine, and he was closer to the Peavy of old than not. The same could be said for his four minor-league rehab starts. But the fact he needed those rehab starts, having suffered a setback in spring training, is perhaps the biggest reason to remain skeptical of his ability to contribute in Fantasy this season.

Still, you can't dismiss the upside. Peavy is a former Cy Young winner and has looked like one recently enough to deserve a roll of the dice in Fantasy. I'm just not sure you're in a position to make that roll, Dave. If I had to cut one of those three pitchers, my first choice would be Kuroda because, at age 36, he's unable to take the step forward that Hudson and Kennedy have shown signs of taking this season, but he's been too consistent for me to outright release him.

Maybe you could try making a two-for-one trade, offering Kennedy and Kuroda for Max Scherzer, Brett Anderson or someone else with comparable value. Otherwise, I'd let someone else gamble on Peavy.

I have too many outfielders and constantly switch them out, trying to take advantage of the ones with better hitting schedules, but I always seem to predict wrong. Currently, I have Shin-Soo Choo, Jay Bruce, Mike Stanton, Aubrey Huff, Jose Tabata and Jeff Francoeur. I have yet to put much confidence in Tabata or Francoeur, so that leaves me with four outfielders for three spots. I also have both Asdrubal Cabrera and Jimmy Rollins at shortstop. I'm not sure whether to put Rollins in my utility spot or start all four of my outfielders. Basically, I need to make a choice and cut the rest. Otherwise, I'll keep fiddling around, and fiddling isn't working. What should I do? -- Joe Schlieff, Weymouth, Mass.

SW: I'll be the first to admit the best lineup in Fantasy is the one you never have to change, but considering the lineup at your disposal, I don't think you can avoid a certain amount of fiddling.

Granted, you can overdo it, which has probably been your issue so far, but the solution isn't to cut the excess. Among the players you listed, the only one I'd consider droppable is Francoeur, and even he's too hot for waivers right now.

Let's begin with the must-start options, which I perceive to be Choo and Rollins. I understand you actually favor Cabrera to Rollins right now, but I think you should realign your thinking. One brief power surge for Cabrera at the beginning of the season isn't enough to move him past one of the few high-end options at the position entering the season.

Among the remaining options, it's still a tossup. Bruce and Stanton have the most upside, but Huff is coming off the best season and Tabata has performed the best so far. Even Francoeur, who I put in a separate category from the rest, is too hot right now not to get some consideration.

My recommendation would be to start Tabata when he's healthy. His skill set as an all-around contributor should make him more reliable from week to week than pure sluggers like Bruce and Stanton. He'll have his bad weeks too, but if your plan is to change your lineup as little as possible, you can't freak out every time he does.

Between Bruce, Stanton and Huff (and I'll throw Francoeur in there for right now), my best advice would be to start the hottest two, prioritizing them in the order I listed them. If Bruce and Stanton get hot enough that they look like they'll live up to their 40-homer potential, you'll want to treat them as must-start options from that point forward, but for now, they're platoonable.

My 16-team mixed league has a re-entry draft coming up, and I need to pick up a pitcher with my first pick. The only stats we count for pitchers are wins and strikeouts. Would you rank these in the order you'd select them: Kyle Lohse, Justin Masterson, Zach Britton, Freddy Garcia, Armando Galarraga, Mike Leake and Johnny Cueto? -- Matt Remington, Pittsburgh

SW: Not a week goes by without me reassessing the early-season breakout pitchers in some form or fashion. You play in kind of an oddball league, Matt, but fortunately for the rest of our readers, I place such an emphasis on strikeouts and innings (which has a strong correlation to wins) that my order for you will be the same for most everyone else.

Masterson is the clear No. 1 here. Not only is he off to a sizzling start, but he has the upside of a top prospect and throws hard enough that his strikeout rate is more likely to increase than decrease. Among the pitchers listed here, I'm buying his breakout the most.

Cueto is No. 2 for me now that he's due back from a shoulder injury. His results still haven't completely caught up to his stuff, and yet he has made consistent progress year after year. With another step forward this year, he'll be more or less a must-start option in Fantasy.

Britton is third, though I still think he's a must-own in Fantasy. I rank him behind Cueto because I think he's due for a downturn and won't be a particularly good source of strikeouts this early in his career. Still, his ceiling is much higher than any of the remaining options, and you can't argue with what he's done so far.

I rank Lohse fourth, but it's a distant fourth behind Britton. Pitching coach Dave Duncan has been able to squeeze everything he can out of the right-hander so far, but I don't think Lohse has the talent to keep it going for a full season. Garcia is fifth just because he has a secure rotation spot for an expected contender, but I don't think he's particularly good. Leake is sixth on upside alone. He's moving to the bullpen with Cueto coming back, though, so I'm not sure he's worth the roster spot even in a 16-team league. Galarraga ranks dead last of this group, and I'd avoid him if at all possible. He's the definition of mediocrity and no sure bet to keep his rotation spot all season.

Makes his near-perfect game last year all the more sad, doesn't it?

I'm in a 10-team Rotisserie league and am losing patience with a bunch of my players, such as Justin Morneau and Alex Rios. Now, I know dropping guys like Morneau and Rios is out of the question, but if I were to trade them now, I would get way less value than I otherwise would have. Should I count on them to bounce back or just cut my losses and get whatever I can for them? -- Jake Solek, Afghanistan (by way of Chicago)

SW: If you own Morneau and Rios right now, you have little choice but to cross your fingers and hope for the best. Both have too many concerns to fetch top dollar on the trade market, but both have too much upside for you to sell low on them.

Rios at least has some historical precedent for his poor performance. He's no stranger to extended slumps, having hit .228 with a .645 OPS last September and .179 with a .470 OPS over the final six weeks of 2009. His final numbers are usually the kind you'd want, though, so chances are a compensatory hot streak is coming.

Morneau, on the other hand, is still one of the biggest uncertainties in Fantasy. To put to rest all the concerns about the concussion that sidelined him for the second half last season, he had to get off to a hot start this season, and he has done anything but.

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Still, as debilitating as concussions can be, we have yet to see one reduce an MVP-type player in the prime of his career to a journeyman-like performance. I'm thinking this slump is too extreme to be entirely concussion-related, so you can expect better times ahead for Morneau. How much better? No one can say for sure. But until he shows he can produce at an All-Star level again, you can't expect any of your potential trade partners to give him the benefit of the doubt.

I'm still confident enough in both Morneau and Rios that I'm not panicking over either yet. Would I consider trading them for early-season breakout possibilities like Ike Davis and Alex Gordon? I'm getting closer and closer to believing I would. But anything less than that, and the potential reward for hanging on to them far outweighs the risk.

I wouldn't mind benching them if I could afford the roster space on a spare first baseman or outfielder, but sooner a later, a time will come when you'll be relieved you held on to them.

Would you drop Carlos Pena for one of the younger first base options like Justin Smoak, Brett Wallace or Matt LaPorta? -- Drew Schafer

SW: Pena finally homered Tuesday, which should relieve some doubts about whether or not he's still one of the better power hitters in the game. But unfortunately, power is about all he has to offer. He hit .196 last year and has hit .221 since the start of the 2008 season, so even if he bounces all the way back, you have to wonder what good he'll do for your Fantasy team.

Smoak, Wallace and LaPorta all have the upside for more and are all showing signs of making good on it this season. Smoak has picked up where he left off last September, when he returned from the minors to hit .340 with three homers in 50 at-bats. He's hitting for both average and power, as he was long projected to do, and has walked nearly as many times as he has struck out, giving him a .933 OPS. Wallace, meanwhile, has taken off since adjusting his positioning in the batter's box, racking up nine multi-hit games in a 12-game span. Between the two, Smoak would be my choice to add for Pena since he has come closer to providing the power expected of a first baseman, but Wallace was a pretty good prospect in his own right and doesn't rank too far behind.

LaPorta's percentages are encouraging, but the Indians have so far shied away from playing him every day, in part because of his past failures. If he continues to hit well, his at-bats will surely become more consistent, but for now Pena is still probably the better option in Fantasy.

I'm in a friendly, 12-team, 5x5 Rotisserie league that doesn't review trades. Instead, the commissioner fields any complaints and makes a decision. The most recent deal to create a stir was between a husband and wife, which no doubt added to the suspicion. She dealt a white-hot Jered Weaver for an also hot (but hardly as valuable, in my opinion) Andre Ethier. A couple of league members, including myself, suggested the trade was lopsided and called for a review. Is this trade "fair," and are league members correct to be suspicious of two owners living under one roof who claim this deal and any others will be made free of shadiness? -- Mike Bogart, Denver

SW: Really? That's what gets your blood boiling, Mike? A Weaver-for-Ethier trade? That's your idea of a deal so lopsided that you have to bring in a third party and begin with the conspiracy theories?

I don't even know where to begin here, so let's just begin with the beginning: the draft. In standard Rotisserie leagues -- and yours is as standard as it gets, which only baffles me all the more -- Weaver was drafted 57th overall and Ethier 51st overall. Oh, the injustice. And even if you want to argue Weaver has improved his value since then with his ridiculously hot start, you also have to acknowledge Ethier hasn't exactly buried himself with that 29-game hitting streak of his. He's only making history, you know.

Weaver and Ethier both have top-10 potential at their respective positions and have both lived up to that potential so far. This trade is as fair as fair gets. I'm thinking you've gotten so preoccupied with the potential conflict of interest between husband and wife that you can no longer assess their trades objectively.

I don't know all the history here. I don't know how wide the gap in knowledge is between the two or if one has more invested in the league than the other. I don't know if they've made trades in the past that were amusing at best and collusive at worst. I can only assess this situation on the facts you've given me, and based on those facts, you need to simmer down. If you can't trust a couple to play the same game together that they would apart -- if, for you, it's a matter of principle that two people under the same roof shouldn't be in the same league and has nothing to do with these two individuals in particular -- then it's something to address in the offseason (and ultimately may mean you finding a new league), but I see no evidence of foul play here.

Creating controversy where there is none isn't fair to the people you've agreed to play with this season.

In shallower leagues, some quality players just aren't good enough to be anything more than waiver fodder, but since they're still quality players, I have a hard time distinguishing them from the legitimate undroppables. In my 10-team Head-to-Head league, I currently have Starlin Castro, Brian Roberts and Jed Lowrie competing for two spots, with Ben Zobrist playing the outfield and Nick Markakis in my utility spot. Meanwhile, players like Ike Davis, Chris Coghlan, Alfonso Soriano and Jose Tabata are currently unowned. Should I drop one of my current players for one of the available players? -- Alan Mafra, Florianopolis, Brazil

SW: Finally, someone who understands the challenges of playing in a shallower league. People sometimes dismiss them as beginner leagues because only the high-end players are used, giving everyone a team full of All-Stars. But not everyone can win the league still. How do you gain an advantage when every team looks like a winner?

The answer, of course, is to gather not just good players, but the best players -- and at every position on the diamond. Upside is everything. The Placido Polancos and Asdrubal Cabreras of the world certainly have their place in Fantasy and may even appear undroppable right now, but unless you're counting on them as regular parts of your starting lineup, you should be looking into other options. Neither has the ceiling to give you an advantage at his respective position, not with only nine other starting third basemen and shortstops in your league.

Which of the available options in your league could give you an advantage? Not Coghlan, who again is a good player but doesn't have enough upside in enough areas to be more than a run-of-the-mill outfielder in your format. Maybe if his early-season power surge continues, we can reassess, but I don't see him being a 20-homer guy even in his prime. And for being a leadoff hitter, he has yet to steal a significant number of bases.

Soriano is out too. He had his day in the sun, offering legitimate five-category potential once upon a time, but now he's nothing more than a streaky slugger whose all-or-nothing ways keep his batting average on the wrong side of .260. He doesn't run like he used to, and given his streaky nature, his 11 homers so far may end up being half his season total. Now would be the worst time to buy into him.

Davis, who looks like a stable source of both batting average and power in his second season, and Tabata, who has shown five-category potential in the vein of Shane Victorino, both deserve roster spots in your league. Because you have Zobrist to man second, I'd be willing to drop Roberts for one or the other -- preferably Davis. Roberts is likely to get hurt at his age and is no longer the elite base-stealer he once was.

The only other player you could get away with dropping is Markakis, and between him and Tabata, it's close. Markakis has the longer track record, but given his slide last year, I'm not so sure he's the better option. Tabata's injury should prevent you from losing him to someone else for the time being, so you can afford to wait on this decision. But if Tabata comes back strong and Markakis continues to flounder, you might want to make the exchange.

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