By the Numbers: The power of two
One of the most frequent types of questions that we get from readers looking for Fantasy advice takes the following form: "Should I go with a two-start Pitcher A or a one-start Pitcher B?" While every rotation choice requires some thinking through, there is a rule of thumb that can help to guide you through these decisions.
I call it the Rule of Eight. That's the minimum number of Fantasy points that a viable starting pitcher in standard mixed leagues should be averaging across his starts if he is to be used as a two-start pitcher. With very few exceptions, if a starter is averaging fewer than eight Fantasy points per start, he should not be active in a 12-team mixed league, even with two starts.
There are two reasons why the Rule of Eight works. First, in standard mixed leagues, owners can count on finding plentiful pitching options on the waiver wire who average more than eight Fantasy points per start. In fact, it's usually not hard to find a variety of free agents in the 10 to 12 points per start range, which is an even safer territory from which to select potential two-start pitchers. Second, a pitcher who doesn't average the bare minimum of eight points per start is not likely to get 16 points or more in a two-start week. Most owners already have enough starting pitchers who typically earn at least that many points in one start that they don't have to reach for an inferior two-start pitcher to keep pace with their opponents.
This simple numbers game means that you can separate pitchers into four categories when determining who should get the call in a given scoring period. In the graph below, I have assigned pitchers to these categories based on their average Fantasy points per start. This initial assignment is just a first step, as we do have to be aware that, after a mere six weeks, we cannot completely trust these averages on face value. That's why I have also included xFIP and the difference between ERA and xFIP in the graph. xFIP is an estimate of ERA that controls for impacts that defense, bullpens and luck may have played in shaping a pitcher's stats to date.
The players in our first category, must-start pitchers, have all averaged at least 16 points per start. As the title implies, nearly all of them can be used in any given week. The second category -- viable one-start pitchers -- consists of pitchers with between 12 and 16 points per start. As two-start pitchers, they can be used over virtually any one-start alternative, and more often than not, they are worth keeping active with one start. The third category -- viable two-start pitchers -- are not normally worth keeping active with one start but can be slotted into the rotation when they get a second start. They average between eight and 12 points per start. The remaining pitchers are generally best left to owners in deeper formats, as they violate the Rule of Eight.
Must-Start Pitchers: These are the pitchers who should be on your active roster no matter what, as long as they are getting at least one start for the week. The only concern should be if you don't trust that the pitcher can keep up the pace he has set over the first quarter of the season. xFIP alerts us to a handful of red-flag candidates. Josh Tomlin, Alexi Ogando, Kyle Lohse, Zach Britton, Max Scherzer, Jason Marquis and Tim Hudson all have ERAs that could easily be close to 4.00, though all but Marquis and Hudson currently sport marks below 3.00.
There is some weakness in each of these pitcher's skill sets that makes him somewhat risky to use in a one-start week. Tomlin, Ogando and Scherzer are all flyball pitchers who can get hurt by homers, so opposing lineups and venues are important factors to consider. In addition, Tomlin and Ogando are contact pitchers who have been helped out by low BABIP rates. The same goes for Hudson and Britton, though they may be more trustworthy due to their strong ground ball tendencies. Finally, Lohse and Marquis have been very stingy with walks so far, but their respective histories give us reason to doubt whether they can continue this trend. While these seven pitchers have been producing like must-start options, each should be handled with more caution than their Fantasy point averages would suggest.
Few owners doubt the viability of elite pitchers like Roy Halladay, Jered Weaver, Tim Lincecum and Felix Hernandez as permanent members of a Fantasy rotation, but owners can also have confidence in lower-key options like Justin Masterson, Gio Gonzalez and Jorge De La Rosa.
Viable One-Start Pitchers: While a few of the pitchers who are exceeding the must-start threshold deserve closer scrutiny, so do a few who are falling short of the 16-points-per-start criterion. Any starter who is averaging at least 12 points per start deserves active roster consideration in any given week, even if he is getting just one start. There just has to be a reason to expect that he will have a better-than-average week. In the cases of Bud Norris, Cliff Lee and Matt Garza, each is giving owners a reason to expect improvement, as each stands to give up fewer hits on balls in play in future starts. Should this happen, each of their ERAs will come to resemble their xFIPs in the mid-2.00s.
Several of the starters who fall into this category, such as Matt Cain, Brett Anderson, Ricky Romero and Chad Billingsley, are reliable enough that they could be trusted every week, but it's certainly defensible to bench them if an owner is deep in quality starting pitching or viable two-start candidates. Other options in this category, like Philip Humber, Aaron Harang, Kevin Correia and Wade Davis, have enough question marks around their ability to sustain their early success that they can be benched more often than they are started. Still, they are showing enough early on that they could be legitimate one-start options if the conditions are right.
Viable Two-Start Pitchers: As a whole, this group is riskier in one-start weeks than the Viable One-Start group. In the vast majority of cases, these are pitchers -- from Randy Wolf to Travis Wood to Clay Buchholz -- you would sit in favor a viable two-start pitcher. Still each member of this group is good enough to be considered as a possible Fantasy starter in a two-start week. Some of the pitchers on the higher end of this category, such as Jonathan Sanchez, Wandy Rodriguez and Yovani Gallardo, really belong in the Viable One-Start category, but each of this trio has had his Fantasy points depressed by some early season inconsistency. The same holds true for Chris Carpenter and Brian Duensing, who have both been sunk by a couple of bad outings. Chris Narveson and Tim Stauffer also stand out among this group, as both have xFIPs below 3.50. Aside from these exceptions, nearly all of the pitchers in this category are best saved for two-start weeks. That recommendation may be a little optimistic, though, for Tyler Chatwood, Kyle Drabek and Daisuke Matsuzaka, all of whom have xFIPs in the neighborhood of 5.00.
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Pitchers to Sit: Owners in standard mixed leagues can have a use for pitchers like Doug Fister, Chris Capuano and Brett Myers when they make two starts, even if they don't pass the sniff test in one-start weeks. The same can't be said for the bulk of the pitchers who are averaging fewer than eight Fantasy points per week. Ryan Dempster, Madison Bumgarner and Mat Latos are clearly exceptions, as they are over their early season woes. John Danks, Ubaldo Jimenez and Francisco Liriano still have to get on track but should eventually prove to be trustworthy, even as one-start starters. If any of the rest of the starters in this group is "Pitcher A" in the "should I start two-start Pitcher A over one-start Pitcher B" conundrum, the answer to the question is an unequivocal "no."
The Rule of Eight is really more of a guideline than a hard and fast rule, but even this early in the season, it provides a reasonable cutoff for ruling out pitchers as two-start options in standard mixed leagues. The 16-points-per-start threshold also works well for identifying pitchers who can start in any week, regardless of number of starts, matchups or venues.
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| xFIP: Also known as Expected Fielding Independent Pitching. It is an estimate of what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based on factors that a pitcher can control, such as strikeouts, walks and flyballs. xFIP is a derivative of FIP, which was developed by Tom Tango. Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James GO/AO -- Ground out-fly out ratio GB/FB -- Ground ball-fly ball ratio Batting Average per Balls in Play (BABIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30% Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks) Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats |
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