Dear Mr. Fantasy: Considering the alternatives
Finally, it's all as it should be.
After years of weeding out the less-invested members who didn't show up on Draft Day and stopped checking their rosters in early June, your league has finally hit its stride.
Everyone is as into it as you are. Every matchup is as intense as any you can remember. The whole experience has become so engrossing that you not only track your own team's performance, but everyone else's as well. On Monday, you make your familiar rounds on the scoreboard page, clicking from matchup to matchup when you see ... a red cross next to a player's name. And not just for some day-to-day thing; he's been on the DL for over a week now. The dream is over.
"Leave it to Johnny to mess this thing up," you mutter to yourself. "What a loser."
But maybe he's not a loser. Maybe he's the furthest thing from it. Maybe he's so invested in winning that instead of absent-mindedly claiming the top replacement off the waiver wire, he examined every option from every angle and determined his best course of action was to keep his lineup as is.
And maybe he's right.
So ... catcher. What a bad position right now. I have Geovany Soto, and of course, he's injured. To pick up a replacement catcher, I'd have to drop one of Jason Heyward, Adam Lind, Nelson Cruz, Ryan Zimmermann, Jeremy Hellickson and Edwin Jackson, and obviously, that's not happening. I'm opting not to start a catcher this week. I'm crazy, right? -- Jesse Crouse, Ithaca, N.Y.
SW: Limiting your team's upside is generally a bad idea, of course, but if you can afford to punt on a position for a week here or there, it's catcher.
It's not necessarily the weakest position in terms of how one catcher compares to another, but it's almost always the lowest-scoring position and is again this year. The highest-scoring catcher in standard Head-to-Head leagues, Carlos Santana, has only 109 Fantasy points, which is less than the seventh-highest scoring shortstop, the ninth-highest scoring second baseman, the 10th-highest scoring third baseman, the 17th-highest scoring first baseman and the 37th-highest scoring outfielder. Even the best catchers are prone to scoring in single digits any given week because of all the off days they're forced to take, so naturally, a lower-level catcher in no way offers assured production. Is an unlikely 10 points from J.P. Arencibia really worth sacrificing a potentially high-end option at another position? Not in my eyes.
I faced this same dilemma in one of my leagues -- an injured Soto, an unappealing waiver wire and no logical candidates to cut -- and ultimately made the same decision. I stuck with Soto as my starting catcher, knowing he'd contribute nothing, and hoped the rest of my team would make up the difference. Again, it's not ideal, and if you lose by three or four points because of it, you might have some regrets. But this early in the season, you shouldn't jeopardize the big picture for minimal gain. That's the way the big-league managers approach it. Chances are if your team has a good week, you won't even miss those points from your catcher.
Now, if Soto was expected to miss 4-6 weeks instead of the minimum two, you might have to bite the bullet and cut someone you like -- perhaps even Soto himself. That's a long time to play exposed. But more often than not, if my catcher is dealing with a minor injury, I just stick with him and hope for the best.
I need saves badly and am looking to acquire Jordan Walden, Drew Storen, Chris Perez or Brandon League. The owner of those four wants a hitter in return. Would you trade Dustin Pedroia for Storen and Walden if you had Ryan Roberts lined up as a replacement at second base, or would you rather trade Carlos Quentin or Adam Jones straight-up for one of the four? -- Steve Pritchett
SW: Sounds like the hoarder of closers is trying to milk you for everything you have, Steve, which is no doubt the right move on his part. That's why he kept picking up all those closers he didn't need. But if you meet his demands and make the Pedroia deal, it's like he picked up a stud second baseman off the waiver wire instead, which would obviously be a huge advantage for him.
The only one of the proposed deals that strikes me as fair value is the one for Jones straight-up. I wouldn't make the same deal for Quentin, who hasn't done much since that monster first week but has remained productive enough for me to think he has more monster weeks in his future, but Jones is one of those perpetually overrated players who hasn't progressed nearly as much in his three years with the Orioles as most people think. Unless 20 homers with a mediocre number of RBI and runs scored means something to you, you can live without him.
I'd aim for Perez and Storen first, and if your opponent declines, I'd settle for Walden, who has about the same upside as the first two but has been a little shaky lately. League might not be worth it since he's at risk of losing his job, but as a last resort, I'd prefer to take my chances on him than give up a high-end player like Pedroia or Quentin.
How would you rank these pitchers: Mat Latos, Madison Bumgarner, Jeremy Hellickson, Kyle McClellan, Scott Baker and Brandon McCarthy? -- Don Baker
SW: Not a week goes by without someone asking me to rank a list of pitchers, and more often than not, it's a completely different cast of characters. It's like the column within the column. But hey, it's an efficient way to present a lot of information, so I'll give it another go.
Latos still earns top honors from me. He was a borderline ace last season and has been decent enough this season for me to think he can get back to that level. He has had some command issues, which isn't unexpected considering he missed part of spring training with inflammation in his shoulder, but his velocity is close to normal, and he's averaging a strikeout per inning.
Bumgarner is the clear No. 2 here. You wouldn't know it by his record, but he has a 1.80 ERA over his last four starts, striking out 25 batters in 25 innings, which is reason to believe the former top prospect is on the verge of a breakout. If he had won even two of those last four starts, we'd probably be thinking of him as a must-start option -- and I don't use that term lightly.
I rank Hellickson third of this group, and he's the last of what I'd consider the must-own options. His upside speaks for itself -- he was the sixth-ranked prospect coming into the season, according to Baseball America -- but he has been less than consistent in his first full major-league season. His shutout last time out suggests he's progressing, though, and he'll be a pitcher you want active more often than not.
If assessing the final three on expected performance alone, I'd rank them Baker, McCarthy and McClellan. Baker's strikeout-to-walk ratio is impressive enough for me to think he'll take a big step forward sooner or later, but he does get hit hard from time to time. McCarthy may still fall short well short of his previoulsy high expectations even now that he's healthy, but he eats innings, if nothing else. McClellan will gut out his share of victories but isn't particularly deceptive. The one thing he has going for him is relief pitcher eligibility, which potentially makes him more valuable than McCarthy in Head-to-Head leagues.
What kind of second baseman, third baseman or shortstop would you consider fair value for one of Cliff Lee, Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw and Tommy Hanson? I'm having a hard time nailing down a trade in a Head-to-Head league and would like to know if I'm asking too much. -- Tom Doyle, Denver
SW: Those are all high-end pitchers, so I'd expect nothing less than a high-end hitter in return. The problem for you is most of the healthy high-end third basemen and shortstops -- specifically, Jose Bautista, Evan Longoria, Troy Tulowitzki and Hanley Ramirez -- are so high-end that they project as first-rounders next year. None of your four pitchers are first-round material, so naturally, a one-for-one deal might be out of your reach.
The only three players at those two positions who would be worth acquiring for one of your pitchers and who likely won't be first-round picks next year are Alex Rodriguez, Kevin Youkilis and Jose Reyes. Unfortunately, if their owners have solid pitching staffs already, you have nowhere else to turn.
Second base is a little different. It's a deeper position, so you'll have a few more options available to you, and you might even be able to land the best, Robinson Cano, since he hasn't performed up to expectations so far. Dustin Pedroia would also be a reasonable target, and even Ian Kinsler would be a worthy acquisition in a one-for-one exchange. Go any deeper than that, though, and you should probably ask for a second player in the deal.
Those are six options at your disposal, Tom, so if you're determined to move one of those four pitchers for an infielder, you should be able to make something happen. Otherwise, you'll have to look into players like Martin Prado and Ben Zobrist and settle for two-for-one deals, which generally aren't advisable if you're on the side getting two players. But hey, a need is a need.
I've about had it with Torii Hunter, so I'm seriously contemplating dropping him. Would any of Michael Brantley, Johnny Damon, Coco Crisp, Aubrey Huff, Carlos Lee and Matt Joyce be worth adding over him in a 10-team Head-to-Head league? -- Ryan Keys, Carlsbad, Calif.
SW: None of those players strikes me as an obvious upgrade over Hunter, but I agree the Angels outfielder is clearly on the decline at age 35 and is far from undroppable in standard mixed leagues. I've never been high on him as a Fantasy option, having always felt like his defense and intangibles gave him a better reputation than his numbers deserved, but I'll be the first to admit you have to respect the track record and not automatically drop him for whatever you can find on the waiver wire. He did just have 23 homers and 90 RBI last season, after all.
Of the options you listed, I could see myself dropping Hunter for any of Crisp, Huff, Lee and Joyce, though Huff and Joyce would be the only automatics -- Joyce because he's a breakout candidate if he can claim everyday at-bats and Huff because he was a top-10 outfielder just last year. Crisp and Lee come down to personal preference. Crisp has emerged as an elite source of steals and will likely outscore Hunter on a per-game basis, but his injury history is pretty hard to ignore. Lee is likely just as much on the decline as Hunter but was a little more productive in his prime. If I have to rely on an unexpected resurgence for a player in his mid-30s, I'd rather do it for the player with the higher ceiling.
As for Brantley, he has some speed and on-base ability, but his recent power surge isn't anything you should expect to continue. And I get the feeling we wouldn't even be talking about Damon if he didn't happen to hit a couple of clutch home runs earlier in the year. His other numbers are terrible.
So ... the short answer is drop Hunter for Huff, with Joyce a close second, but the fact you have so many options to consider shows just how much Hunter's value has slipped.
I have David Wright and am wondering whether I should keep him, drop him or shop him. Any suggestions? -- Cully Murphy, Boston
SW: It's a seriously dilemma, Cully, because even though Wright could return in the minimum 15 days, I have a feeling he won't. The Mets aren't contending for anything this year, so they'll make extra sure the stress fracture in his back is completely healed before activating him from the DL. I expect him to miss at least a month and quite possibly more.
Of course, that's the most pessimistic point of view, and you can't expect all your competitors to share it. Wright was an elite player entering the season -- a borderline first-rounder in some leagues -- so some aggressive Fantasy owners might see this injury as a golden opportunity to buy low on him. I'm not saying you should give Wright away for Hiroki Kuroda or Brett Gardner, but if someone offers a borderline high-end option like David Price or Andrew McCutchen, you should probably take it. If someone is willing to take on the risk for a slight upgrade at third base and offers you Martin Prado or Adrian Beltre in exchange, it's also a deal worth considering, especially if you're forced to get by with a Scott Rolen or Chris Johnson type in Wright's absence.
If you have to settle for anything less than that, you should just stash Wright and hope for the best. After all, he might return in June and perform like a stud the rest of the way. But if you can sell him for slightly less than face value now, at the height of his uncertainty, you should absolutely do it.
I recently acquired Hanley Ramirez, Adam Jones and Fernando Rodney for Elvis Andrus, Alex Rios and Chris Perez and wanted to know if you were as enthusiastic about the deal as I am. The best part is I can pick up any of Brian Fuentes, Ryan Madson and Matt Capps to replace Perez -- at least in the short term. Plus, I already have Mark Melancon and Vicente Padilla on my bench. Considering Rios' injury problems, I feel Jones is a comparable player. So, in my mind, this is basically a Ramirez-for-Andrus swap. What do you think? -- Jonathan Fuchs, Schenectady, N.Y.
SW: I think you found a way to paint the rosiest picture possible, Jonathan. That's not to say I don't like the deal -- anytime you can get an elite player without giving up one, you've improved your team's maximum possible production -- but this trade isn't as simple as a Ramirez-for-Andrus swap. If it was, it wouldn't have happened.
That said, it's a great example of how to buy low on Ramirez. Granted, he's still untouchable in some leagues because of his upside alone, but considering how long his early-season slump has lasted, you'll find some Fantasy owners who are ready to accept him and Andrus as equals. Throw in a high-end closer and outfield upgrade, and boom, it's a done deal.
And you did that here, Jonathan. Perez isn't easily replaced, certainly not by players on leashes as short as Melancon's and Padilla's. I understand you're willing to mix and match at the position for now, and to land a player of Ramirez's caliber, you should be, but it is a legitimate sacrifice. I also wouldn't consider Rios and Jones equals just yet. Rios has historically been a much better source of stolen bases, and I'd still consider him the safer bet of the two to hit 20 homers. I understand he's dealing with soreness in his toe, but that injury apparently dates back five years. I have a hard time believing it has anything to do with his early-season struggles. More likely, he's simply a player on the wrong side of streaky who still has plenty of time to finish with his usual high-end numbers.
Don't misunderstand me, Jonathan. This response is more a pat on the back than anything else. But it's also a chance to remind everyone that to buy low on a player, you do have to give up something.
In my 10-team keeper league, I'm holding on to a few players who most people would describe as busts since all are around age 25 and have underwhelmed with regular playing time. We have especially deep rosters, so I can afford to have much more patience than the average Fantasy owner would. Do you still have any hope for any of Brandon Wood, Sean Rodriguez, Chris Davis and Reid Brignac? -- Pat Christopher, Mississauga, Canada
SW: The only one I think could still become a real game-changer in Fantasy is Rodriguez, who hasn't gotten the same opportunities as the other three and hasn't been miserable to the point of incompetence in his opportunities. Best-case scenario, he could have an Aaron Hill-like career, complete with the same inconsistencies. Like Hill, he has legitimate home-run power, and like Hill, he doesn't know how to take a walk. It's still a long shot, especially given his current role with the Rays, but it's at least possible.
The best I think Brignac can hope for is Alex Gonzalez-type numbers. He, like Gonzalez, was a top prospect more for his defense than offense, though he, like Gonzalez, does have some measure of power potential.
Davis probably still has the most upside of the four since he has demonstrated high-end power at every level, including the majors when he first arrived in 2008. But if he hasn't figured out how to hit major-league pitching by now, after three seasons and countless return trips to the minor leagues, he likely never will. He's just the latest in a long line of promising sluggers too free-swinging for their own good.
Wood is a lost cause, which is why he's no longer with his original organization. He's in the same free-swinging, power-hitting category as Davis, but unlike Davis, he has never offered even a sliver of hope at the major-league level. He's the definition of a Quadruple-A player, and pretty soon the Pirates will come to that same realization.
Without knowing your league's exact keeper rules or roster sizes, I can't say for sure which of those four you should cut. Maybe all of them. At least one of them. In the scenario I'm envisioning, Rodriguez is probably the only one worth stashing.
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