May 22, 2011

Week 8 Fantasy Pitching Planner

By Al Melchior | Data Analyst
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After a week in which every team was scheduled for a full slate of seven games, order has been restored for Fantasy Week 8 (May 23-29). Even with all of the recent rainouts, there is just one doubleheader this coming week, so a mere 36 pitchers are currently tabbed for two starts. That might sound like good news for one-start pitchers in standard mixed leagues, but there are a lot of two-start options worth investigating. Tom Gorzelanny, Jonathon Niese and Jason Vargas are just a few of the pitchers going twice who are widely available as free agents.

Plenty of aces have a pair of scheduled starts next week, so this is yet another good week to stash some of your decent, but not great, one-start pitchers. To see which ones are recommended "sits" in standard mixed leagues, scroll down to the "Other Drop/Stash Targets" section. On your way there, also drop in on our interactive Starting Pitchers Tool to view matchup information, ratings, ownership rates and xFIP differentials for every starter scheduled to take the mound in Week 8.

Advisable Two-Start Pitchers (Standard Mixed Leagues)

Bronson Arroyo, Cincinnati: Arroyo has done his usual solid job of getting batters to make easy flyball outs, but he has also been burned by homers. While that could spell trouble in his first start at Philadelphia, Arroyo should be fine when he travels to Atlanta, producing enough to be worth an active roster spot.

Josh Beckett, Boston: Osama Bin Laden was still alive. Kate Middleton and Prince William had yet to get married. The San Antonio Spurs had flickering hopes of an NBA title. All of these things were true the last time that Josh Beckett had allowed a run going into Thursday's game against Detroit. Until coughing up a single run in the second inning, Beckett had gone 20 innings without giving up a run, dating back to April 27. It's safe to say that he is locked in. He did develop tightness in his neck in his Thursday start, but he was removed after six innings as a precaution. He is reportedly feeling better and still on track to make both of his scheduled starts in Week 8.

Zach Britton, Baltimore: Britton has benefitted from an 83 percent strand rate, but when you break down the rest of his stats, he is doing a spectacular Tim Hudson impersonation. That makes him a worthy start in nearly any format, especially with two trips to the hill.

Clay Buchholz, Boston: Buchholz has been outstanding for three starts running, allowing just two runs with 20 strikeouts over 19 innings. Even if you don't trust this small sample of excellence, his two-start status should convince you to keep him active in standard mixed leagues next week.

Matt Cain, San Francisco: Because of a moderate strikeout rate, Cain is a notch below the Fantasy pitching elite, but he has become remarkably consistent. His stats so far this season are practically a mirror image of those from each of his last two seasons.

Bartolo Colon, N.Y. Yankees: Colon has been getting a little bit of strand rate help, but it's hard to ignore his consistently-high strikeout counts and sharp control. He has become a reliable two-start option, and until he proves otherwise, he can be trusted in most one-start weeks as well.

Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati: In his third start of the season, Cueto hit a snag, allowing his first three runs of the year. However, the outing was better than the stat line indicates, as Cueto was cruising along until the fifth inning, his final frame of the contest.

John Danks, Chicago White Sox: To look at Danks' 1.46 WHIP, you would think that something has gone horribly wrong. For the most part, though, he has been the same pitcher this year that he has been throughout the last three seasons. He's been getting fewer fly ball outs and allowing more line drive base hits, but the difference from his norm is nothing major. We need to see a more drastic change than this to stop trusting Danks as a two-start pitcher.

Jorge De La Rosa, Colorado: It's no accident that De La Rosa has made huge strides in his WHIP, whittling his rate down to 1.15 after nine starts. He has cut back on walks and is getting more popups. It remains to be seen if he can sustain this improvement as a 30-year-old veteran, but the Rockies' southpaw just may be taking his game to the next level.

Ryan Dempster, Chicago Cubs: Dempster's string of three straight quality starts came to a crashing halt on Wednesday, as he was bounced after five innings at Florida. Even with the subpar outing, he is no longer having the command issues that were plaguing him earlier this year. Dempster is safe to use next week, though bear in mind that the potential return of Randy Wells from the DL could rob him of a second start.

Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee: Gallardo was a little light on strikeouts a few weeks back, but he seems to be back on track. Though his overall numbers are still not very impressive, Gallardo is back to being someone owners should start every week in almost every format.

Tom Gorzelanny, Washington: Gorzelanny is showing that the 119 strikeouts that he accumulated in 136 1/3 innings last season were no fluke. He is something of a home run risk, and he could have trouble when he pitches at Miller Park next week, but his subsequent start at home against the Padres should more than compensate for it.

Cole Hamels, Philadelphia: As Hamels enters the prime of his career, he just keeps getting better and better. Last season was a true breakout, but he's getting more strikeouts and ground balls this year, and walking fewer batters as well.

Dan Haren, L.A. Angels: Haren is having one of the best stretches of his career, and for the most part, it is backed up by his skill indicators. He almost certainly won't maintain a four percent home run per flyball rate all year, but owners can still look forward to an ERA close to 3.00 and a WHIP in the neighborhood of 1.00.

Jeremy Hellickson, Tampa Bay: Though Hellickson has been surprisingly wild this season, he has been getting away with it, largely because of a low home run per flyball rate. When he travels to good home run parks, he may not get the same favorable results, but next week, he should be fine with starts at Detroit and at home against Cleveland.

Jair Jurrjens, Atlanta: Coming into this week, Jurrjens led all major league pitchers with at least six starts in Fantasy points per start. That's almost unbelievable for someone who owns a strikeout rate that is well below the big league average, but Jurrjens is doing just about everything else a pitcher can do to prevent baserunners and runs.

Clayton Kershaw, L.A. Dodgers: After back-to-back seasons with sub-3.00 ERAs, you would think there wouldn't be any room for Kershaw to improve. Yet, he's finding ways to get even better, as the 23-year-old is trimming down his walk rate. The results don't show in his 3.09 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, as his BABIP is slightly inflated, but all that means is that Kershaw's top-shelf stats are likely to get even better.

Kyle Lohse, St. Louis: Lohse hasn't been striking out as many batters in his recent starts, but he has continued to be very stingy with free passes. He doesn't offer owners enough to be used in standard mixed leagues with a single start, but with trips to San Diego and Colorado next week, he's worth a pickup if you could use an extra start.

Justin Masterson, Cleveland: Masterson will go up against a couple of tough customers in Jeremy Hellickson and Clay Buchholz, but Masterson has been no slouch himself. He has gone four starts without a win, but the Indians have not been providing him with much run support. Masterson should pick up at least one "W" next week.

Jonathon Niese, N.Y. Mets: Niese has struggled to find consistency, though he is coming off of his best outing of the year. On Wednesday, Niese tossed seven scoreless innings against the Nats, striking out seven. Though you never can be sure what you will get from Niese, his overall stats paint a picture of a hurler who is good enough to use with two starts.

Ricky Nolasco, Florida: Despite an improved ground ball rate, Nolasco is still a little too prone to chucking gopher balls. That should be less of a problem with a pair of Week 8 starts at Dodger Stadium and AT&T Park.

Bud Norris, Houston: Norris' breakout campaign has hit a speed bump, as he has allowed nine earned runs over 12 1/3 innings combined in his last two starts. Wednesday's appearance at St. Louis was especially concerning, as he threw only 48 of 91 pitches for strikes. There are not enough warning signs to consider this a downward trend yet, so owners should have full confidence in using Norris in all formats this coming week.

Alexi Ogando, Texas: Every year, it seems that there is one pitcher who defies the statistical odds, maintaining an unusually-low BABIP rate, even though trend data and common sense would dictate that a regression should have already occurred. This year, it's Ogando who is suspended, Wily Coyote-like, above the abyss that seemingly awaits him. We know that the Texas infield defense is outstanding, but how long can Ogando hold hitters to a .115 batting average on grounders -- a rate that is just over half the major league average? Even if he starts to backslide next week, Ogando is enough of a strike-thrower that he can be trusted with two starts.

Ricky Romero, Toronto: Romero was awful in two of his starts this season, but he has been absolutely dominant in the other seven. Thursday's win over the Rays was already the fourth time this season he has allowed no more than one run in a start. He should continue to roll in his upcoming starts at the Yankees and versus the White Sox.

Jason Vargas, Seattle: Last week, Vargas was supposed to get a pair of starts, but a rainout pushed that two-start scoring period to this week. No longer just a fastball-changeup lefty, Vargas has introduced a cutter that has been a resounding success this season. He has been especially hot lately, allowing only one run across his last three starts. Vargas would be worth considering in standard mixed leagues even with one start, but with a pair, he needs to be owned in far more than 31 percent of our leagues.

Justin Verlander, Detroit: You already knew that Verlander was reliable, but here's some proof. Every one of his 10 starts this year has been a quality start.

Jered Weaver, L.A. Angels: Weaver has lost each of his last four starts, but the Angels have scored only four runs over his last three outings. With the exception of one K-free effort against Cleveland, Weaver is still getting punchouts, so there is no need to sit him in any formats.

Other Add/Activate Targets

Scott Baker, Minnesota: Baker has been horrible in two home starts this year, but his home splits were much better than his road splits last season when Target Field opened. Baker's flyball tendencies should play well in his pitcher-friendly ballpark, so he should be safe to use in standard mixed leagues when he and the Twins play host to the Angels next week.

Brian Duensing, Minnesota: Duensing's two most recent starts have driven his ERA up to 4.98. He has been very reliable since he began starting games in 2009, so Duensing has earned some forgiveness, especially since he had been very effective over the first six innings of his last outing at Arizona. Duensing has been dropped in 11 percent of our leagues over the past week, but owners in some of those leagues should give the southpaw a chance. Not only does he have a solid history behind him, but Duensing also gets a nice matchup against Seattle in Week 8.

Zack Greinke, Milwaukee: Greinke hasn't exactly come out of the gates blazing, allowing 15 earned runs in his first 21 innings off the DL. It hasn't been all bad for the former Cy Young winner. While he has allowed line drives on close to 30 percent of his hit balls so far, he has also struck out 29 batters while walking just two. Matt Garza got off to a similar start, and he wound up being very effective once he settled in. If Garza could do it, Greinke can as well. It's time for the owners in 24 percent of leagues who have Greinke benched to get him in the game.

Mat Latos, San Diego: Prior to a difficult outing against Seattle on Friday, Latos had a 3.22 ERA with 19 strikeouts and just two home runs allowed in 22 1/3 innings over a four-start stretch. Those are pretty nice stats, and he has now shown that he is capable of putting those up over an extended period. Given what he accomplished last year, it seems that Latos could be useful in far more than the 45 percent of leagues in which he is currently active.

Colby Lewis, Texas: The Royals will be one of the toughest lineups that Lewis has faced in weeks, but after five straight quality starts, he has done enough to earn our trust in standard mixed leagues. Even against subpar competition, you have to be impressed with Lewis' 30-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio during the hot streak.

Chris Narveson, Milwaukee: This is my weekly plea to turn around Narveson's plummeting ownership rates. Owners may discount his 7 1/3 scoreless innings on Thursday night against the Padres, but overall, he has done well against some of the NL's stronger lineups. Just recognize that he has had very close to the same season as Max Scherzer (97 percent ownership rate), but just with less luck in stranding baserunners.

Tim Stauffer, San Diego: With a pretty tough schedule so far, Stauffer has escaped with a 3.88 ERA through Saturday that would be much lower if not for a fluky-high BABIP. We played the comparison game with Narveson and Scherzer, and we can do it with Stauffer, too. With better luck on balls in play and more run support, he would compare favorably with Justin Masterson.

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Jordan Zimmermann, Washington: Zimmermann will be Stauffer's opponent in Week 8. Lately, Zimmermann has been every bit as impressive as Stauffer, and he can count on better run support than the Padres' hurler.

Inadvisable Two-Start Pitchers (Standard Mixed Leagues)

Phil Coke, Detroit: Over his four starts during the month of May, Coke has shed exactly a run off his ERA. He's been getting a few more strikeouts in the process, but he just doesn't have a very high ceiling as a strikeout pitcher. Without great control to compensate for it, Coke is still not doing quite enough to be used in standard mixed leagues, even with two starts.

Danny Duffy, Kansas City: Duffy recorded some nice ratios during his brief time in the upper minors, but he looked shaky in his major league debut against the Rangers on Wednesday. He walked six batters in four innings, and given that he has had some bouts of wildness in the minors, it's best to save Duffy for deeper formats for now.

Guillermo Moscoso, Oakland: Though the A's have yet to announce who will replace the injured Tyson Ross in the rotation, by process of elimination, it almost has to be Moscoso. The former Tigers and Rangers farmhand has been steady, if not spectacular, as a minor leaguer, and he could be a decent arm for owners in AL-only leagues. It appears that he will oppose Dan Haren and Zach Britton this week, so he should be used as nothing more than a last resort in Week 8. For the longer-term potential, though, Moscoso is worth a pickup in deep formats.

Dustin Moseley, San Diego: Ground balls are great fun, but with mediocre strikeout and walk ratios and the National League's fourth-lowest level of run support, there's not much useful here for mixed league owners.

Josh Outman, Oakland: Outman looks set to fill the A's other rotation vacancy, which opened up when Brandon McCarthy was placed on the DL on Friday. A contender for the fifth-starter spot eventually won by McCarthy in spring training, Outman got off to a horrendous start in Triple-A, but he has been a little better lately. The lefty showed promise prior to his 2009 Tommy John surgery, but so far he hasn't been the same pitcher. He should be avoided for now, even with two starts.

Carl Pavano, Minnesota: There is not much mystery as to what is wrong with Pavano. He simply isn't missing many bats, and opposing hitters are smacking him around for a .288 batting average. Pavano wasn't a flamethrower to begin with, and his velocity has been down this season. Unless he improves quickly, there is no reason for him to be rostered in 40 percent of our leagues.

Joe Saunders, Arizona: Saunders has not been reliable at all this season. To make matters worse, the Diamondbacks' rotation is in flux, with Armando Galarraga having been designated for assignment and Zack Duke entering the rotation as soon as next week. Saunders looks like the most probable recipient of a second start, but with one start or two, mixed league owners need to avoid the not-very-crafty lefty.

Carlos Villanueva, Toronto: Villanueva takes the rotation spot that belonged to Jesse Litsch, who was placed on the DL on Friday. He has a 6-12 career record as a starter with a 4.81 ERA, and he's been the same pitcher he's always been so far this year. Owners may be enticed by his current 1.48 ERA, but that has small sample fluke written all over it.

Vance Worley, Philadelphia: Because Worley has very good control and can get ground ball outs, he's worth starting in NL-only leagues. Just don't expect him to strike out anywhere near a batter per inning, which he accomplished over his two earlier starts against the Mets and Nationals. He will likely stay in the rotation as long as Joe Blanton remains on the disabled list.

Other Drop/Stash Targets

Jake Arrieta, Baltimore: He had been on a roll prior to Friday's shellacking at the hands of Washington, but Arrieta had been a little lucky to get such good results when he'd allowed a homer in each of his five prior starts. There's still too much risk here in standard mixed leagues, especially with only one start next week.

Gavin Floyd, Chicago White Sox: Nearly every year, xFIP predicts that Floyd should have a lower ERA than he does. Maybe it's time for xFIP (or at least Fantasy owners) to accept that Floyd is going to give up more homers than his flyball rate would suggest he would, especially with pitching so many games at U.S. Cellular Field. He'll be away next week, but a start at Rangers Ballpark at Arlington won't really help matters.

Ubaldo Jimenez, Colorado: Jimenez's last two starts have been his most encouraging of the year, but all is still not well. His average fastball velocity, according to PitchF/X data, was just 94 mph during those starts, which is 2 mph lower than his average last season. Jimenez also walked five Milwaukee batters in his complete game loss on Sunday. These warning signs tell us that Jimenez's troubles may not be over yet.

Hiroki Kuroda, L.A. Dodgers: Kuroda had put up back-to-back scoreless starts going into Sunday, but he failed to make it out of the sixth inning against the White Sox. He is a pitcher worth using frequently in standard mixed leagues, even with one start. However, he had pitched a little over his head in his previous two starts. As a marginal one-start pitcher in standard mixed leagues, chances are good that you can find a stronger alternative for the coming week.

Charlie Morton, Pittsburgh: Morton has been a revelation this season, but a recent study on Fangraphs.com points to a critical weakness that Fantasy owners should be aware of. He has terrible splits against left-handed batters, but this weakness hasn't been exposed this year, as Morton has been facing a disproportionate number of righty batters. In Week 8, Morton will go up against a Braves' lineup that has a few potent lefty bats. Morton has surprised us with his viability in standard mixed leagues, but this would be a good week to sit him in those formats.

Brett Myers, Houston: Myers has been homer-prone for the bulk of his career, and with Minute Maid Park as his current home, it's little surprise that he has allowed seven of his 10 home runs this year in home games. With a start this week at the Juice Box against the Diamondbacks, it's not worth the risk to start Myers in standard mixed leagues.

Josh Tomlin, Cleveland: If someone like Kuroda might have trouble squeezing onto an active standard mixed league roster in a one-start week, then owners should be especially cautious about using Tomlin. He doesn't produce as many Ks as Kuroda, and he's more of a long ball threat, too. A matchup against David Price and the Rays doesn't help Tomlin's viability much, either.

Edinson Volquez, Cincinnati: Volquez handed out just one walk on Tuesday against the Cubs, but he was back to his usual tricks on Sunday against at Cleveland. Overall, he has had fewer than three walks in a start just twice this season. Volquez has yet to turn the corner, so mixed league owners should rest him for the week ahead.

Carlos Zambrano, Chicago Cubs: Owners must suspect that Zambrano is not as bad as his 4.88 ERA makes him out to be, and that mark will improve once his 62 percent strand rate increases. That must be why he is still owned in just under 90 percent of leagues and active in nearly 60 percent. But while Zambrano isn't that bad, he's really not very good either. Pitchers with mediocre strikeout and ground ball rates are a dime a dozen, and they don't need to be on standard mixed league rosters, especially in one-start weeks.

Might Not Start in Week 8

Tim Hudson, Atlanta: Hudson will have his stiff back examined in Atlanta on Monday, but regardless of the outcome of that examination, he will be skipped when his turn comes up on Wednesday. Mike Minor will take over for Hudson for that upcoming start at Pittsburgh. With Hudson's subsequent start not coming until a week from Monday, he will be out of action for all of Fantasy Week 8.

Matt Garza, Chicago Cubs: Garza was scratched from Sunday's scheduled start with tightness in his elbow. He will have it checked out on Monday. There is some possibility that Garza could still start during the weekend series against the Pirates, but with Randy Wells returning from the DL, the Cubs won't need to rush him back.

Nate Adcock, Kansas City: Adcock, a Rule 5 acquisition from the Pirates, made his first major league start on Saturday against the Cardinals. For someone who has barely pitched above Class A, Adcock did exceptionally well, holding the St. Louis lineup scoreless for five innings. He currently lines up to start again Friday at the Rangers, but there is no guarantee that the Royals will keep him as the replacement for the injured Kyle Davies. Adcock certainly did everything he could to make a case for himself.

Chris Tillman/Brad Bergesen, Baltimore: Brian Matusz is due to come off the disabled list soon, and either Tillman or Bergesen is likely to give way in the rotation in order to make room. The good news for both pitchers is that the O's are leaning towards giving Matusz another rehab start, so Tillman and Bergesen should each take another turn during Week 8.

DL Watch

Joe Blanton, Philadelphia: On Monday, the Phillies will place Blanton on the disabled list for the second time this year with an elbow problem. He has been diagnosed with inflammation in his pitching (right) elbow. While an MRI has shown that there is no structural damage, Blanton may not return as quickly this time as he did the first time he went on the DL.

Jesse Litsch, Toronto: Litsch went on the disabled list on Friday with an impingement in his right shoulder that he has been pitching through all season. He will miss a minimum of two starts.

Tyson Ross, Oakland: Ross was removed from Thursday's start versus the Twins with a strained left oblique muscle and was placed on the DL on Friday. There is currently no timetable for his return.

Brandon McCarthy, Oakland: For the fourth time in his career, McCarthy is dealing with a stress reaction in his right scapula. He has been pitching with the shoulder issue for the last few weeks and was finally placed on the DL on Friday. As with Ross, there is no timetable for McCarthy's return to Oakland's rotation.

Alex White, Cleveland: White was likely headed to Triple-A to make room for soon-to-be-activated Mitch Talbot, but instead of going to the minors, he went on the DL this weekend. The rookie sprained a ligament in his right middle finger during Friday's start against the Reds. He will miss at least two months.

Brian Matusz, Baltimore: Matusz (intercostal strain) followed up his Class A rehab start with one at Double-A Bowie on Saturday. It was initially thought that he would return this coming week, but the Orioles are inclined to give Matusz one more rehab start. More likely, he will be activated during Fantasy Week 9 (May 30-June 5).

Mitch Talbot, Cleveland: Talbot (elbow) had his Thursday rehab start cut short by rain, but he appears to be ready to be activated. It is likely that Talbot will take the mound when the Indians face the Red Sox on Wednesday.

Randy Wells, Chicago Cubs: Wells (forearm) made what was expected to be his final rehab start on Sunday. Though his stint for Triple-A Iowa did not go very well, owners should expect to see Wells in the Cubs' rotation for their weekend series against Pittsburgh.

Zach Duke, Arizona: Duke (hand) has already made a Class A rehab start and he is scheduled to make a second start at Triple-A Reno on Monday. He is tentatively scheduled to make his Diamondbacks' debut on May 28 against Houston.

Aaron Cook, Colorado: Cook (finger) made a rehab start for Double-A Tulsa on Wednesday. There is no set timetable for his return, but he is eligible to come off the DL on May 30, and he could reenter the Colorado rotation during Fantasy Week 9 (May 30-June 5).

John Lackey/Daisuke Matsuzaka, Boston: Lackey was placed on the DL on Monday with an elbow strain, and Matsuzaka was disabled two days later with a sprained ulnar collateral ligament and strained flexor in his pitching elbow. There is currently no timetable for Lackey's return, while Dice-K is expected to miss at least a month, though season-ending Tommy John surgery is a potential option. For now, Alfredo Aceves and Tim Wakefield are filling the two vacancies.

Kyle Davies, Kansas City: Davies was placed on the DL on Tuesday with right rotator cuff inflammation. It is not yet known how long Davies will be out. For the time being, he will be replaced in the rotation by Nate Adcock.

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