By the Numbers: Reality check, please
Early season streaks, both hot and cold, can have a lasting impact on a player's stat line. Blazing starts have left Alex Gordon and Michael Bourn among the most valuable Fantasy outfielders, but are they both still living off of their April exploits, or have they sustained their early success? At the other extreme, Chris Johnson and Chone Figgins remain as Fantasy afterthoughts, but have they emerged from the holes they dug in the season's early weeks?
For the many players, a stat line built through nearly half a season of play can be a reliable indicator of things to come. However, players whose stats are padded or weighed down by even a few weeks of extreme play are harder to read. Back in Week 4, I tried to read the tea leaves of a dozen players who got off to confounding starts. Now that another eight weeks have passed, the time is ripe to see if those prognostications were on the mark.
This week's "reality check" of those predictions will focus on hitters. Similar forecasts were made for 12 starting pitchers back in Week 6; I will follow up on those in the weeks to come. This review will focus on what players have done on the field since the cutoff date of the initial Lucky/Unlucky analysis, which was April 25. I've also allowed myself a substitution; Adam LaRoche, one of the 12 hitters originally scrutinized, is out for the year after having shoulder surgery, so I've plugged Alex Rios (a similarly "unlucky" hitter) in his spot.
We'll start by taking a close look at the players whom I thought were due for a downturn and then move on to those set to surge and those likely to stay the course.
All stats reflect games played through Monday, June 20.
Predicted to Decline
Peter Bourjos, OF, L.A. Angels
What happened early: Bourjos was toying with a .300 batting average in late April, even though he was striking out at an Adam Dunn-like rate. While speedy players like Bourjos can compensate for strikeouts with a healthy BABIP rate (paging Austin Jackson), even an optimist would have likely found his .420 mark too good to be true.
What has happened since: Bourjos has cooled it with the strikeouts, making contact in more than 80 percent of his at-bats since being included in the Lucky/Unlucky analysis. It hasn't helped, though, as he has been hitting mostly grounders and popups when he does make contact.
What can we expect going forward? Bourjos' line drive rate is a miniscule 12 percent over his 421 major league at-bats, and that's enough of a sample to have serious doubts about whether he will improve on the .233 batting average he has compiled over the past eight weeks.
Michael Bourn, OF, Houston
What happened early: Bourn jumped out to an early .304 batting average, but that mark was buoyed by a .467 batting average on flyballs.
What has happened since: Now Bourn's batting average on flies stands at .213, which is right around his career norm. His overall batting average over the last eight weeks has settled in at .271, which is just six points higher than his average from a year ago.
What can we expect going forward? Bourn's stolen bases have placed him among the top producers in both Rotisserie and Head-to-Head, but in the latter format, he's also been helped by 17 doubles. With fewer flyball hits lately, it's no surprise that Bourn's doubles pace has slowed down since April. He could easily be missing from the top 30 Head-to-Head outfielders over the remainder of the season.
Stephen Drew, SS, Arizona
What happened early: Drew was batting more than 50 points above his career average, even though he was striking out at his typical rate. Making his near-.330 average even less plausible were his line drive and popup rates, which were worse than usual. A .392 BABIP papered over these unimpressive trends, giving Drew the appearance of a possible breakout at age 28.
What has happened since: Not only has Drew's BABIP fallen back to his career norm, but his overall batting average has suffered under the weight of a 23 percent strikeout rate. Since April 26, Drew is hitting just .260 with three home runs.
What can we expect going forward? Drew can rebound from his mild batting average slump as well as his recent power outage to post stats similar to last season's. That makes Drew one of the better sub-elite shortstop options in Fantasy, but there are no signs that he is taking a step forward.
Seth Smith, OF, Colorado
What happened early: Smith appeared to be finally having his long-awaited breakout, batting over .300, even though he was striking out more than usual. He had never posted a BABIP above .328 in his three prior major league seasons, but Smith found himself with a .383 BABIP early in Week 4, despite a low line drive rate.
What has happened since: The predicted decline never came for Smith. He has maintained a .300-plus batting average, and this time there is little reason to doubt its lasting power. He has been on a line drive binge over the last two months, and if anything, Smith's .342 BABIP over that period is a reflection of a little bit of bad luck.
What can we expect going forward? As the 28-year-old has a history of good line-drive rates, he could easily maintain his recent pace. Because he sits against lefties, Smith is still not technically an everyday player, but he is playing more often than he ever has in his big-league career. Smith deserves the bump in playing time, and even though he sits a couple of times per week on average, he produces enough when he does play to be a viable outfielder in standard mixed leagues.
Predicted to Improve
Chone Figgins, 3B, Seattle
What happened early: Figgins' batting average was mired well below the Mendoza line, even though he was making far more contact than normal and boasting favorable line drive and popup rates.
What has happened since: Figgins appears to have improved his luck on balls on play, but his BABIP over the past eight weeks is still well below average, sitting at .243. Worse yet, an uptick in strikeouts has washed out much of that improvement, and his season-to-date batting average is still below .200.
What can we expect going forward? The problem isn't that Figgins doesn't hit enough line drives; it's that he just isn't very proficient at turning them into base hits anymore. Since joining the Mariners last season, Figgins is batting .622 on line drives, which is more than 100 points below the major league average over that period. There's little point in waiting for Figgins' "luck" to improve, as he will simply not get on base often enough to be the run-scoring and stolen base threat he once was.
Chris Johnson, 3B, Houston
What happened early: Johnson hit the gaps frequently in his rookie season, helping himself to a .308 batting average. Early this season, he wasn't hitting as many frozen ropes, but Johnson's .235 BABIP and .181 overall batting average still looked like a textbook case of bad luck.
What has happened since: Johnson has returned to being a top-notch line drive hitter, and that alone has helped him to hit .267 over the last eight weeks. He has really turned it on in June, batting .309 with nine extra base hits in 18 games.
What can we expect going forward? Even with the recent improvement, it still looks like Johnson is getting a raw deal. He is batting .558 on line drives after hitting .803 just a season ago. His recent hot streak is much more indicative of what owners can expect for the rest of the season as compared to his performance over the first two months. Johnson is still a good buy-low candidate, though on his current pace, that may not be the case for long.
Mark Reynolds, 3B, Baltimore
What happened early: Despite putting a serious dent in his robust strikeout rate, Reynolds was far from equaling last year's dreadful .198 batting average. Owners couldn't blame batted ball rates for Reynolds' poor start; he had reversed the unfavorable line drive and popup rates that contributed to his dismal 2010 campaign.
What has happened since: Most important to Fantasy owners, Reynolds' power is back, as he has hit 11 of his 13 homers over the last eight weeks. Better luck on balls in play has also helped to raise his average. Since appearing in our analysis as an "unlucky" hitter, Reynolds has been batting .238, which is only two points below his career average.
What can we expect going forward? Reynolds' .260 batting average from two seasons ago will likely stand as a career best. However, as long as he can continue to hit in the .230-.240 range with power, Reynolds is worth starting in standard mixed leagues, even in Rotisserie formats.
Alex Rios, OF, Chicago White Sox
What happened early: Rios had only four extra-base hits -- all doubles -- through his first 22 games. While a high ground ball rate was partly to blame, if Rios was getting hits on more than one out of every five balls in play, he probably would have had a few more doubles, at the very least. Apparent bad luck with BABIP held Rios' overall batting average to a miserable .165.
What has happened since: Not much has changed for Rios, aside from some improvement in his contact rate. That has allowed Rios to get his average just above .200, but it hasn't been with any help from BABIP. At first glance, it appears that he could still be suffering from bad luck, as Rios is an improbable 1 for 74 on flyballs in play.
What can we expect going forward? I thought that Rios was certain to turn his season around, but now it looks like my optimism was misplaced. It has been a lack of power, not bad luck, which has led to Rios' paucity of base hits. Rios' home run per flyball rate is down sharply from a year ago, dropping from 11.3 to 7.5 percent. Also, for the six balls that he has hit for homers, the speed of the ball off the bat is down by more than two miles per hour compared to the average ball speed on last season's homers, according to the ESPN Home Run Tracker. Rios' lack of home run thump makes his .014 batting average on flyballs in play, and an expectation for continued struggles, more plausible.
Not Predicted to Undergo a Major Correction
Dan Uggla, 2B, Atlanta
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What happened early: Uggla's frequent popouts killed his batting average, which sat at .183 when he was initially featured in the Lucky/Unlucky analysis.
What has happened since: Uggla's BABIP and overall batting average have changed little since the initial analysis. He has improved his popup and line drive rates since then, but he has neutralized the impact of those trends with a spike in his strikeout rate. As a result, Uggla's batting average is a mere four points higher than it was on April 25, and his power has actually declined since then.
What can we expect going forward? As with Rios, Uggla's depleted power is having a ripple effect, robbing him of hits inside the park as well those that leave the park. He has been such a consistent producer from season to season that it is hard to think that Uggla won't rebound, but there are no signs of an imminent turnaround at this point. Owners who are buying low on Uggla are making a leap of faith.
Chris Young, OF, Arizona
What happened early: Young was popping out at a staggering rate -- more than once out of every four at-bats. Fantasy owners knew not to count on Young for even a decent batting average when they drafted him, but a .213 mark after the better part of a month was probably worse than what they bargained for.
What has happened since: Young has always been prone to easy flyouts, but he has gotten his infield fly rate under control in recent weeks. That has resulted in a much improved BABIP rate, and over the last eight weeks, Young has been hitting a solid .278 with nine home runs and 16 doubles.
What can we expect going forward? Young has done much of his damage in the month of June, so owners should read Young's pumped-up stats as a sign of a short-term streak rather than as an indication of sustained improvement. In other words, Young is not as bad as he was in the season's first weeks, but he is likely to cool off of his current pace somewhat.
Alex Gordon, OF, Kansas City
What happened early: Gordon jumped out to a fast start, batting .356 going into Week 4. He was hitting more grounders than he had in the past, and fortunately for him, he amassed a .324 ground ball batting average over that time.
What has happened since: Gordon hasn't helped his cause, as he has been striking out more often, but his .246 batting average over the last eight weeks also smacks of some bad luck. Gordon hasn't been able to maintain his high ground ball batting average, but his line drive and popup rates have been mostly stable, yet his BABIP from Week 4 forward is just .273. That deflated rate has rendered Gordon as not much better than the hitter he had been over the previous two seasons.
What can we expect going forward? Few probably expected Gordon to bat over .350 all season, but the signs were there suggesting that Gordon was an improved player, and not one due to regress to his prior levels of production. His low recent BABIP suggests that a rebound is indeed coming. From here on out, Gordon should maintain his current .281 overall batting average, and there's a good chance that he could even improve on it.
Matt Joyce, OF, Tampa Bay
What happened early: Joyce blasted over 40 percent of his hit balls for liners, which helped him to a .290 batting average, even though he had yet to hit a home run.
What has happened since: Joyce found his home run stroke, belting 10 long balls from Week 4 on. That's helped Joyce to actually lift his batting average over .300, even though his BABIP and line drive rates have fallen dramatically.
What can we expect going forward? For most of this season, Joyce has shown a nice balance of home run and line drive power, which has helped to make him a top 30 outfielder in both Rotisserie and Head-to-Head formats. This level of production is sustainable, which makes him a viable start in most weeks, even though he regularly sits against lefties.
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| xFIP: Also known as Expected Fielding Independent Pitching. It is an estimate of what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based on factors that a pitcher can control, such as strikeouts, walks and flyballs. xFIP is a derivative of FIP, which was developed by Tom Tango. Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James GO/AO -- Ground out-fly out ratio GB/FB -- Ground ball-fly ball ratio Batting Average per Balls in Play (BABIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30% Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks) Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats |
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