By the Numbers: Starters that are coming correct
Early in the season, we're accustomed to seeing all sorts of crazy stats, but by this point in the schedule, we expect players' numbers to settle in closer to major league norms. Batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is no exception, and that's why rates that are more than 40 points away from the big league average around .290 are usually a signal that a pitcher is due for drastic change in the weeks ahead.
After the first five weekly scoring periods this season, I put a dozen pitchers with suspicious-looking BABIPs under the microscope, and their rates ranged from Josh Tomlin's .158 to Doug Fister's .360. In the seven weeks since, that range for the same pool of pitchers has narrowed a bit to .222 to .383. If we remove the outliers on the low (Jhoulys Chacin) and high end (Edwin Jackson), though, every other pitcher in the group has been in the very normal .260 to .318 range. This just goes to show why BABIP can be a useful forecasting tool. Over brief spans, pitchers can get a boost or get bogged down by an extreme BABIP, but those trends tend to be short-lived.
Still, not every pitcher in our sample regressed to the norm in a predictable way, so it's time to see what this might mean going into the season's second half. Do Chacin's and Jackson's extended stays at the BABIP extremes tell us anything about their Fantasy fortunes going forward? Do we really know who the real Bud Norris or Chris Capuano is? A deeper look at these pitchers and others from our analysis back in early May aims to answer these questions and more.
There are actually two new pitchers in our cohort group. Brandon McCarthy and Tom Gorzelanny were part of the original analysis, but since both have missed extended time with injuries, I have excluded them from this follow-up. I have subbed in Bud Norris for the similarly-unlucky McCarthy. Kevin Correia will take the place of Gorzelanny, as both pitchers posted low early-season BABIPs that were supported by their batted ball rates.
Predicted to Decline
James Shields, Tampa Bay
What happened early: Despite ordinary line drive and popup rates, Shields rode a .239 BABIP to a 2.01 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. Only a relative lack of wins -- three through his first seven starts - - kept him from being mentioned in the same breath as Jered Weaver after the first few weeks of the season.
What has happened since: Shields' BABIP has returned to something close to normal, but his Fantasy production has barely slowed down. He has actually been striking out more batters over the last couple of months, which has compensated for the increased rate of base hits allowed on contact.
What can we expect going forward? With the recent boost in his K-rate, Shields is maintaining the gains in strikeouts that he made last season, but without the spike in his line drive rate (22 percent in 2010, as compared to 18 percent this year). At age 29, it's not inconceivable that Shields is having a breakout year. He's had high strikeout and low line drive rates before, but just not in the same year. With no strong signs of him not being able to sustain what he has started, Shields could be just as good in the second half as he has been in the first.
Jhoulys Chacin, Colorado
What happened early: Chacin's 2.68 ERA and 1.17 WHIP looked too good to be true, as his strikeout and walk rates were merely mediocre. He was not a strikeout-per-inning pitcher in the minors, so owners looking for a reason to be skeptical of last year's 9.0 K/9 rate could find support in his diminished early numbers (37 strikeouts in 47 innings, 7.1 K/9). Chacin clearly looked due for a fall.
What has happened since: Chacin's ERA has risen above 3.00, as he has been hurt by home runs, but he has actually shaved a couple more points off his WHIP. The sophomore hurler continues to stymie hitters when they put the ball in play, holding them to a .222 BABIP since May 10, and over that span, he is back to getting nearly a strikeout per inning. Far from regressing, Chacin has continued to be a top-flight Fantasy performer.
What can we expect going forward? Chacin has managed to maintain a low BABIP and WHIP with help from a decreasing line drive rate, but no matter how good he is at avoiding hard contact, a BABIP in the .220s still seems at least a little lucky. The rising strikeout rate is a good sign, but Chacin still profiles as a pitcher whose value could wither over the coming months.
Kyle Lohse, St. Louis
What happened early: Lohse's pinpoint control enabled him to average more than seven innings a start, but a .206 BABIP also aided the veteran's quest for efficiency. Both his line drive and popup rates were on the unfavorable side, so Lohse seemed like he had little chance to stretch his hot start deep into the season.
What has happened since: Lohse has been the same pitcher lately as he was earlier this year, at least when you let his strikeout, walk and batted ball rates tell the story. His luck on balls in play has run out, though, and with a normal .288 BABIP, Lohse's ERA and WHIP have packed on some serious weight. In the process, he's leaving games roughly an inning earlier on average since May 10.
What can we expect going forward? Though Lohse is on pace to post a career-low walk rate, he has had sharp control at other points in his major league career. He can continue to be an efficient pitcher with a decent ERA and WHIP, but there is nothing to suggest that Lohse's BABIP will be any lower than it has been over the last seven weeks. That leaves him as a low-end two-start option in standard mixed leagues and nothing more. Lohse is still owned in 93 percent of the leagues on CBSSports.com, but many of his owners can probably find a better use for his roster spot.
Josh Tomlin, Cleveland
What happened early: Tomlin catapulted himself out of Fantasy obscurity with a quick start, and by the end of Week 5, he owned a sparkling 0.81 WHIP. Issuing eight walks over his first 40 2/3 innings had something to do with that, but so did a reality-defying .158 BABIP. Such a low rate is hard to buy into even with good supporting batted ball rates, but with a 21 percent line drive rate, it completely disregarded logic.
What has happened since: Tomlin has improved a walk rate that was already stellar, but it hasn't shown in the results. Not surprisingly, Tomlin's BABIP has gravitated back to the norm, and if anything, it's actually gone a little beyond it. Though he has walked only four batters over his last 55 innings, Tomlin's WHIP over that period has shot up to 1.24.
What can we expect going forward? With what appears to be a slight case of bad luck with his BABIP and strand rates, Tomlin may see a little bit of improvement in his stats over his next several starts. While it's reasonable to expect a mild rebound, Tomlin is unlikely to ever experience another stretch like he did over this season's first five weeks.
Predicted to Improve
Ted Lilly, L.A. Dodgers
What happened early: Over the previous three seasons combined, no pitcher with at least 500 innings had a lower BABIP than Lilly. That's what made his .355 mark to start this season so unexpected. Lilly's K/9 rate hovered under 6.0, so with the additional contact, owners should have expected some increase in his opponents' batting average. An abysmal .318 mark seemed more than a little unfair, though.
What has happened since: Lilly's been getting more Ks, and his BABIP is right back near his recent norms. From Week 6 forward, opponents have been batting just .244 against the soft-throwing lefty. Homers have kept Lilly's ERA mired in the mid-4.00s, but he's back to being a solid contributor in the WHIP category.
What can we expect going forward? The first five weeks can only be described as bizarre for Lilly, but since then his numbers have been right around where we should expect them to be. His ownership rates haven't picked up since the end of his bad-luck spell, so there is still a buy-low opportunity here. With his stats steadily and expectedly improving, that opportunity may not last for long.
Chris Capuano, N.Y. Mets
What happened early: Capuano was doing all he could to prevent baserunners, avoiding walks and line drives while inducing popups at a high rate. His reward was a 1.54 WHIP, which was inflated by a .333 BABIP.
What has happened since: Opponents are getting fewer hits off Capuano, as their collective batting average against him is 36 points lower since May 10 than it was before then. The ex-Brewer has had virtually no help from the BABIP gods, so he's had to find improvement the hard way, by increasing his strikeout rate.
What can we expect going forward? Capuano's BABIP, particularly on flyballs, has remained high throughout the first half, but there's no particular reason to think that this will continue. He has benefitted from pitching four of his last five games in good pitchers' parks, resulting in a 2.32 ERA over those starts. Since his luck on balls in play is bound to improve, Capuano could continue on his current roll, even as he heads into a stretch with tougher venues come late July and August.
Jo-Jo Reyes, Toronto
What happened early: Still in the midst of a 28-game winless start streak, Reyes' woes were not entirely of his own doing. His strikeout and walk rates were decent and he was popping up batters at an impressive 11 percent rate. However, a .350 BABIP rendered him practically useless in most formats.
What has happened since: Once Reyes started posting the normal BABIP that he deserved, he started to win some games and ceased to be a punch line. Since May 10, Reyes is 3-3 with a 3.86 ERA.
What can we expect going forward? Reyes is too homer-prone to be useful in standard mixed leagues, but he has shown himself to be reliable enough otherwise to be a deeper league option. Still owned in only six percent of our leagues, he still seems to be bearing the stigma of his earlier losing ways.
Bud Norris, Houston
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What happened early: With a 3.16 ERA and 1.27 WHIP through his first seven starts, Norris hadn't performed badly, but a 13 percent line drive rate suggested that he could have been giving up fewer runs and hits with better luck.
What has happened since: Norris' .274 BABIP and 1.22 WHIP give the appearance of a much-needed correction, but he may be the beneficiary of some good luck lately. His walk and line drive rates have been higher in recent weeks, which have contributed to his ERA inching up to 3.51 over his last nine starts.
What can we expect going forward? With Norris having undergone stretches of apparent good and bad luck within the season's first three months, we could merely assume that everything has evened out. That would make his current stat line -- 4-6 with a 3.36 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 100 strikeouts in 99 innings -- look fairly enticing in most formats. The good news is that his best work this season was built on the basis of a low line drive rate, and he already has a history of below-average rates in his brief major league career. Things could get even better for Norris going forward.
Not Predicted to Undergo a Major Correction
Alexi Ogando, Texas
What happened early: Ogando wasn't even assured of a rotation spot until the end of March, but by early May, he was one of the more productive options in Fantasy. He had a .186 BABIP to thank for that, and while a rate that low is unlikely to last for a whole season, he did own the majors' highest popup rate. Ogando posted similarly high rates last year in the majors and minors, so if he was due a statistical correction, at least the landing would be a soft one.
What has happened since: Ogando's popup rate has receded somewhat, and the correction has come. From Week 6 on, Ogando boasts a 3.35 ERA and 1.14 WHIP -- markedly worse than before, but still more than usable in standard mixed leagues.
What can we expect going forward? Everything about Ogando's more recent performance looks sustainable, so he could be here to stay as a standard mixed league option. He has struggled badly in two of his last three starts, so it's possible that Ogando could be tiring in his first extended stretch as a starter. This is a trend to watch, but if Ogando rebounds in his next start or two, there is little reason to doubt his viability in practically any league.
Kevin Correia, Pittsburgh
What happened early: Correia had succeeded before, faring well with the Padres in 2009, but his early season success with the Pirates was still surprising. He rode low walk and line drive rates to a 2.91 ERA and 1.10 WHIP, despite striking out only 21 batters over his first 46 1/3 innings.
What has happened since: Correia's early 12 percent line drive rate now looks like a small- sample fluke, as his rate has reverted back towards its normal level. As one would expect, the same has happened to his BABIP, so more hits and runs have ensued.
What can we expect going forward? With his aversion to line drives being just a small blip on the radar, Correia is becoming an increasingly risky two-start play, and that's the only time you can trust him in standard mixed leagues. Unless he parts with his pitching-to-contact ways, it's hard to see Correia getting back to the level of production he showed during the first month of the season, as I initially thought he could.
Edwin Jackson, Chicago White Sox
What happened early: Despite respectable strikeout and walk rates, Jackson's ERA was stuck in the mid-4.00s and his WHIP was a lofty 1.45. He wasn't getting by with the majors' second-highest line drive rate, which resulted in a .331 BABIP.
What has happened since: Given how bad Jackson's line drive rate was, he may have been lucky to have a BABIP in the .330s. He continues to post one of the highest rates in the majors, and his BABIP has just climbed higher and higher as the season has progressed.
What can we expect going forward? Jackson hasn't always been this amenable to allowing hard contact, so he could get better over the second half. Then again, he's never been especially good at avoiding liners, so expectations for improvement should be kept modest.
Doug Fister, Seattle
What happened early: Fister used a string of starts in pitchers' parks to his advantage, allowing only one homer over 42 1/3 innings on the way to a 3.40 ERA. However, he wasn't getting many infield flies either, and that contributed to a .360 BABIP and 1.46 WHIP.
What has happened since: Fister's never been all that good at inducing popups, so it seemed reasonable to expect that he would continue to post a high BABIP and WHIP. It hasn't worked out that way. Over his last nine starts, Fister has come away with a 1.03 WHIP with help from a .260 BABIP. However, there has been no accompanying increase in popup rate or decline in line drive rate.
What can we expect going forward? Fister has been throwing with more velocity this year, and that has helped him to fan more batters. Based on that development alone, he is a better pitcher this year. However, Fister appears to be on a serious good luck binge, and when it ends, he will likely do some damage to your pitching staff's WHIP.
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| xFIP: Also known as Expected Fielding Independent Pitching. It is an estimate of what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based on factors that a pitcher can control, such as strikeouts, walks and flyballs. xFIP is a derivative of FIP, which was developed by Tom Tango. Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James GO/AO -- Ground out-fly out ratio GB/FB -- Ground ball-fly ball ratio Batting Average per Balls in Play (BABIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30% Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks) Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats |
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