July 7, 2011

Dear Mr. Fantasy: Considering your options

By Scott White | Fantasy Writer
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By all statistical measurements, Jordan Zimmermann's stock is on the rise.

In his first full year back from Tommy John surgery, the former top prospect has gone seven innings or more in five of his last seven starts after doing so only once in his first 10. He has allowed two earned runs or fewer in all but one of those starts, posting a 1.49 ERA.

If you own him in Fantasy, you likely consider him a staple of your starting rotation -- not your top option, probably, but the one you most readily claim as your own after paying next to nothing for him on Draft Day -- and you haven't been able to stop patting yourself on the back as your team works its way up the standings.

That is, until Nationals had to go and remind you of his 160-inning limit -- one that apparently isn't open for discussion even with the team's winning record.

"It's not a great situation, but his welfare is more important," manager Davey Johnson told MLB.com on Wednesday.

Well, that's just perfect.

But it's also reality for many of the young pitchers you've come to trust over the first half of the season. One way or another, whether by managerial decision or physical necessity, the innings catch up to them, and you go from having an ace in the hole to a hole in the ace.

Time to take those offers more seriously.

I'm looking to bolster my hitting in a 10-team keeper league. The last-place team is already out of it and willing to move Josh Hamilton for a combination of an outfielder, relief pitcher and starting pitcher. I'm loaded at starting pitcher with Roy Halladay, Tommy Hanson, Jon Lester, Ubaldo Jimenez, Brandon Morrow, Gio Gonzalez, Brandon Beachy, Jordan Zimmermann, Erik Bedard, Phil Hughes and Jake Peavy. In addition to Alex Gordon and Jonathan Papelbon, what pitcher would you offer to land Hamilton? I'm leaning toward Beachy or Zimmermann. -- Jamie Cain, Kitchener, Canada

SW: I think you can see where I'm going with this.

If you have the choice between trading Zimmermann and trading any other pitcher with anywhere near the same ability, you'll want to trade Zimmermann. The Nationals are drawing a hard line at 160 innings, which means the recent increase in seven- and eight-inning starts is only shortening his timetable.

He's at 108 2/3 innings right now, and with another start coming up before the All-Star break, he'll have about 45 innings left for the second half. That's, what, seven starts? You'll be losing him right at playoff time, if not before, and that could be the difference in a championship season.

Fortunately, it's still seven starts and not only two or three. It's just long enough that you might find someone willing to take his chances and pay close to full value for Zimmermann for a five- or six-week surge. Hey, it's worth a try.

Plus, you have the advantage of trading with an owner whose focus is already on next year, when Zimmermann's innings limit won't matter. From that perspective, the hard-throwing right-hander has shown enough that you might just get the other guy to bite.

I should point out, though, that you're kind of shooting for the stars with this offer, Jamie. If the other guy asks for, say, Jimenez or Gonzalez instead, I don't know that you should necessarily shy away from the deal. I'm not saying either of them -- or any of your other pitchers, really -- will have the innings limitations Zimmermann does. Even Beachy won't after missing five weeks with an oblique injury. He's on pace for less than 120 innings and should be able to cruise right through the playoffs. But I do think the upgrade from Gordon to Hamilton is worth the cost, given your pitching depth, even if you're not ridding yourself of a future headache in the process.

Now would be the time to try to deal one of my first-half wunderkinds -- Michael Pineda, Jaime Garcia and Alexi Ogando -- right? All three have exceeded expectations to date, but can any of them really keep this up all season? Who would you keep them or trade them for the playoff push? Keep in mind I'm especially deep at starting pitcher with Felix Hernandez, Cole Hamels, Tommy Hanson, Chris Carpenter, Erik Bedard, Francisco Liriano and Julio Teheran. -- Adam Rightor

SW: I have enough confidence in the ability of Pineda, Garcia and Ogando that I wouldn't be surprised if any of them maintained their numbers in the second half. But I'll admit the odds are against them.

Garcia worries me the least because he's already been through a full major-league season. An increase of 30 innings from one year to the next is fairly common, so after throwing 163 1/3 innings as a rookie last year, his current pace of 207 innings is at least within reach. I'm guessing he'll be fine.

Pineda and Ogando, on the other hand, are already in unfamiliar territory. Pineda, the lone rookie of the bunch, is still getting his first taste of the majors and never pitched more than 139 1/3 in the minors. He's about 30 away from that now. Plus, the Mariners won't have much incentive to keep running him out there when they inevitably fall out of contention. They say they will, but they might sing a different tune as he approaches the 180-inning mark. He's too important not to protect.

Ogando at least has a little more assurance of pitching through September with the Rangers' sights set on October, but the converted reliever is already about 30 innings over last year's total and has shown some signs of weakening with a 5.79 ERA over his last five starts.

I don't mean to scare anyone who might be relying on any of these three. Like I said, any talk of them regressing is nothing more than speculation. But I think, given your pitching depth, Adam, you can afford to trade all three, so I'd be aggressive in shopping them.

Unfortunately, enough of your opponents will know why you're shopping them that you might not get fair value for them. I wouldn't do anything stupid -- you're trying to mitigate risk, not sell low on a high-end pitcher -- but if you can find someone willing to trade for these pitchers at their current value and not a reduced, speculative value, you'll want to pull the trigger.

How would you compare Lonnie Chisenhall and Mike Moustakas? How do they project out the rest of the year, the near future (next year) and long term? And where do you see them settling into the batting order? -- Tim Pearson, Rochester, N.Y.

SW: Chisenhall and Moustakas both ranked among the top 50 prospects according to Baseball America coming into the season, but I can understand it a little more for Moustakas. He had nearly a 1.000 OPS in the minors last year and demonstrated the ability to hit for both average and power before reaching the majors. He's a slam dunk, I think, to make at least some sort of Fantasy impact both this year and beyond.

Chisenhall, on the other hand, is one of those prospects whose numbers never quite measure up to the hype. He does have some power, putting together a 22-homer season and a 17-homer season in the minors, but he never slugged higher than .472, and he never hit higher than .271. Compared to other minor-leaguers -- top prospects or not -- those numbers are rather pedestrian.

Granted, the scouts know more about Chisenhall than I do, and he wouldn't be the first top prospect to underwhelm in the minors before blowing up in the minors. But for Fantasy purposes, I question whether he'll ever be more than a marginal mixed-league type. My estimation of a good season for Chisenhall is about a .285 batting average and 25 homers. My estimation of a good season for Moustakas is much, much more.

And obviously, in the short term, Moustakas looks like the more valuable of the two. He already seems to have a good knowledge of the strike zone and has shown a little more extra-base power recently. Chisenhall isn't even playing every day.

Like I said, clearly someone sees something in Chisenhall that I don't, so you shouldn't necessarily treat me as the final authority on the matter. But I'm taking Moustakas for both this year and beyond.

I'm currently in second place in my 12-team mixed Head-to-Head league, but I've been shuffling between Miguel Olivo and Jonathan Lucroy since Buster Posey went down. Another owner who has both Victor Martinez and Alex Avila has shown interest in my outfield, which consists of Alex Gordon, Ben Zobrist, B.J. Upton and Ichiro Suzuki. The other owner's outfield consists of Carlos Gonzalez, Michael Cuddyer, Adam Jones, Ryan Ludwick, Jeff Francoeur and Coco Crisp. Do you think I should try to work out a deal or just stick with what I've got? -- Adam Horowitz

SW: I can think of a few trade possibilities that might work to your advantage, Adam, but before we get into them, I have to ask what you stand to lose by trading one of your outfielders. Is the fourth one excess, or do you rely on him as your utility player? Would you be able to find an adequate replacement outfielder off the waiver wire, or would you have to settle for some scrub? In short, would you be filling one hole by creating another?

If so, I'm not sure it's worth it. Having a good catcher is better than not having a good catcher -- don't get me wrong -- but it's the one position where you can get away with starting a scrub, especially in a Head-to-Head league.

Catchers simply don't get the same playing time other position players do. Most sit every fifth day -- some even more than that -- which not only lowers their projected scoring output over a full season, but also from week to week. Even the best catchers -- maybe not Brian McCann, Victor Martinez and Carlos Santana, but Miguel Montero, Alex Avila and Matt Wieters -- score in single digits often enough that you stand a pretty good chance of neutralizing your competition at the position by starting a Lucroy or Oliva instead.

Notice how I included Martinez in that first group? If you can afford to trade one of your outfielders without losing much at the position, he's the one to target. He's one of the few consistently high scorers at catcher -- in part because he's actually a full-time DH -- which makes him a legitimate difference-maker at the position. I'm not sure the other guy would be satisfied with any of your outfielders in a one-for-one deal, but enough people overvalue Upton that if you combine him with a lesser player, you might just be able to pull it off.

If not, then you probably don't have a chance at Martinez. Any of your other outfielders could potentially land you Avila in a one-for-one deal, but again, you'll have to decide if it's worth it. My initial reaction is no.

What's fair trade value for Adrian Gonzalez in a Rotisserie keeper league? Am I crazy to think he's just about the most valuable player in Fantasy? I keep getting low-ball offers from some of the other owners, and I'm starting to question my judgment of him. -- Jonathan Achtzehner

SW: Good idea, Jonathan. Gonzalez's value is worth revisiting halfway through his first season with the Red Sox. The natural assumption is it's gone up, but then again, so many people expected his numbers to increase with his move from San Diego to Boston that they targeted him in the first round before it even happened.

I wasn't among them, but obviously, I'm on the bandwagon now and don't think he's anything short of a first-round player. The most unexpected part of his improvement is the rise in batting average, which stands at .348. His power numbers have stayed about the same in the move from PETCO Park to Fenway Park -- at least so far.

That batting average is also the main thing that sets Gonzalez apart from most power hitters in Rotisserie leagues. Still, according to our Rotisserie formula, he ranks only 15th overall and seventh among hitters, behind Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, Jose Bautista, Ryan Braun, Jacoby Ellsbury and Curtis Granderson. Clearly, his lack of stolen bases bumps him down a bit, which might say more about the value of our formula than Gonzalez himself. Because his production is so high in the other four hitting categories, I'd say Gonzalez's actual value to Rotisserie owners is higher than the formula indicates.

Based on position scarcity and relative upside, I'd be willing to rank Kemp, Reyes, Bautista and Braun ahead of Gonzalez. And even though they technically rank behind him at this point in the season, I'd say Albert Pujols, Troy Tulowitzki and Miguel Cabrera have more Fantasy value than Gonzalez as well.

So that places Gonzalez about eighth in my personal Fantasy rankings, for whatever it's worth. Clearly, he's not the most valuable player in Fantasy, but he's high enough on the list that you shouldn't have any trouble getting a good offer for him. If you need a stud starting pitcher, for instance, you should have several options to choose from.

But hey, if people don't want him, people don't want him. Holding on to Gonzalez isn't exactly punishment, so don't make the mistake of getting frustrated and accepting one of their low-ball offers.

In a 12-team Rotisserie league, I drafted Ryan Zimmerman as my third baseman, Kevin Youkilis as my first baseman and Jose Bautista as an outfielder. Needless to say, others in the league are struggling at third base. I'm doing great in pretty much all hitting categories but am trailing quite a bit in most pitching categories, so I've been shopping Zimmerman or Youkilis for an ace. The best I've been offered so far is Chris Carpenter and Clay Buchholz for Zimmerman. The same guy turned me down when I offered him Zimmerman or Youkilis and Alex Avila for Clayton Kershaw or Jered Weaver. Is this the best I can expect? Would I be better off holding on to my third basemen and relying on my perfectly respectable staff of Dan Haren, Chad Billingsley, Ricky Romero, Scott Baker and Justin Masterson? -- Art Moskowitz, Washington

SW: I'm beginning to think third base is an even weaker position than shortstop right now, at least in shallower mixed leagues like yours. In 16- and 20-team leagues, perhaps shortstop remains the weakest since fewer adequate options are available, but the shortage of high-end options at third base has only gotten worse since the beginning of the season.

In a standard mixed league, the only third basemen I would be satisfied starting are Jose Bautista, Adrian Beltre, Kevin Youkilis, Albert Pujols, Evan Longoria, Michael Young, Alex Rodriguez, Ryan Zimmerman, Pablo Sandoval, Mark Reynolds, Aramis Ramirez and Jhonny Peralta. That's 12 players, which sounds like a lot, but when you consider three of them -- Reynolds, Ramirez and Peralta -- have been exceptionally streaky and six of them -- Bautista, Youkilis, Pujols, Young, Sandoval and Peralta -- are eligible at other positions, chances are you'll find more than a few Fantasy owners with a need at third base.

You own three of those 12 worthy starters, which immediately drops the pool to nine for the remaining 11 teams. And who knows how many more of those 11 own more than one of those nine? I'm guessing at least five or six teams in your league aren't satisfied with who they're starting at third base.

Unfortunately, even among those 12 worthy starters, some don't have as much value as they should. Zimmerman has been sluggish coming back from injury, which has some Fantasy owners questioning his value, and Youkilis hasn't hit for his usual batting average, which has others lukewarm on him. Those happen to be the two you're trying to trade.

Are Carpenter and Buchholz enough for Zimmerman? With Buchholz's ongoing injury situation, I'd say no. You're right to think you have an advantage by owning so many third base-eligible players and that someone should be willing to overpay for one of them at some point, but you might have to wait until one of Zimmerman or Youkilis improves his value first.

I'm one of three co-commissioners in a 16-team Head-to-Head non-keeper league. Recently, one owner traded Jair Jurrjens and B.J. Upton to another for Roy Halladay and Jayson Werth. Our league's general approach to trading is "if the two people agree to it, it's fine," but I personally don't think this is a fair trade. Roy Halladay is currently the second-highest scoring player in the league. The team receiving Halladay and Werth is 9-4, currently three games behind my team (12-1) in our division, while the team trading Halladay is 5-8 in the same division. I've given my opinion to the other co-commissioners, but since my vote is biased, I've agreed to remove it from the equation. I'm just looking for some feedback and reassurance. Don't I have a point here? -- Kyle Ludeman, Waterloo, Wis.

SW: I understand your opinion, Kyle, and I agree with the basis of it. Halladay is a better pitcher than Jurrjens in Fantasy. He records more strikeouts, consistently pitches deeper into games and has a track record that gives him a better chance of maintaining his current pace. And, like you said, he's currently the higher-scoring pitcher in Fantasy even with Jurrjens' ridiculous ERA. If I was the one making this deal, I'd take the Halladay side, and I wouldn't even think twice about it.

But I still think you have to let this one go.

Just think about what you've been hearing in baseball news lately. The All-Star game is coming up. The annual outrage over the annual snubs is subsiding. The biggest dilemma facing the NL team now is at starting pitcher. Who takes the mound in the first inning: Halladay or Jurrjens? It's a hotly contested debate, with different talking heads taking different sides, which leads me to believe the general public right now thinks the two are more or less equals. And if the general public feels that way, you can't blame any Fantasy owner for feeling that way.

Again, I don't agree with it, but I'm not the authority on all things Fantasy Baseball. And neither are you. People have different opinions and should be allowed to act on them as long as they're not so out of touch with reality that they undermine the precepts of honest competition.

Clearly, if all the sports shows are talking about Jair Jurrjens as a Cy Young candidate, the possibility isn't out of touch with reality, which would make our feelings on this trade nothing more than an educated opinion.

To me, that's not enough to overturn a trade.

Besides, looking at the other half of the deal, enough people have dismissed Werth as a bust in Washington that Upton is technically an upgrade over him. Again, I don't necessarily feel that way, but if you look at the trade from that perspective, it's not so bad.

And it's so bad regardless. Hiroki Kuroda for Halladay is bad. Jeremy Hellickson for Halladay is grounds for rejection, as is Tim Hudson for Halladay.

But enough people have enough confidence in Jurrjens that this trade is a reasonable one as long as it's made in good faith by two parties with something to gain.

I know it's frustrating to see someone else improve his team, especially when it's the someone else directly behind you, but it's part of the game. You can't run other people's teams for them, and you wouldn't want to.

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