July 12, 2011

Sliders: Not all All Stars are created equal

By Scott White | Fantasy Writer
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Guess who found out he was an All-Star on Sunday? Guess who else? And who else?

It's basically half the team. The invitations went out with such reckless abandon that anyone who didn't get one probably wonders how close he is to losing his job.

That's one way to ruin a vacation.

So since so many players are gathered in the same place at the same time already, I figured I should take this opportunity to Slider-ize each and every one of them, all at once, predicting how their values will change in the second half and, in some cases, what you should do with them as a result. Yup, you might want to get comfortable for this one.

It's not every relevant player in Fantasy. It just seems like it.

American League

Catchers
Alex Avila : He's good, yeah, but he's no threat to the elite class at the position. He's just the obligatory "guy who comes next," which isn't bad necessarily, but it's reason to think his first half is as good as it gets.
Russell Martin : Really trending the wrong way now, and given his recent track record, that's a bad sign. I have a feeling we'll look back on that period when everyone considered Martin a must-start option the same way we look back at Pee-Wee Herman. What was the fascination there?
Matt Wieters : His pedigree alone makes him more likely to improve than not, but the same was true this spring and last All-Star break and last spring and in 2009. Frankly, he's progressing a little slowly for my tastes. Thank goodness he plays a weak position.

First Basemen
Adrian Gonzalez : Yup, I'm the bozo who didn't think Gonzalez was first-round material, who thought the move from PETCO to Fenway was getting too much pub. Joke's on me. If anything, I see even more homers going forward.
Miguel Cabrera : Guess all that drama from spring training was more than a little overblown. Cabrera might be the most worry-free player in all of Fantasy right now.
Paul Konerko : This time a year ago, when Konerko was an All-Star and batting .299 with 20 homers and a .942 OPS, we all thought he was due to cool off. I'm guessing we won't make that mistake again.

Second Basemen
Robinson Cano : Cano was drafted to be the best second baseman in Fantasy and hasn't been, which immediately gives him room for improvement. So does his career .324 batting average in the second half.
Howard Kendrick : Kendrick's strained hamstring in mid-May was exactly the eye-opener Fantasy owners needed. Since the injury, he's hitting .274 with one homer in nearly as many at-bats as he had before it, looking like the same player he's always been in the majors. So much for that breakthrough.
Michael Young : Young still can't decide whether he's a 20-homer guy or not, but you can live with a 14-homer pace from a guy who's eligible at second and third base as long as he continues to hit for his usual high batting average.

Third Basemen
Alex Rodriguez : Even if A-Rod wasn't in danger of missing six weeks following knee surgery, he'd probably get the dreaded "down" arrow. His continued loss of power at age 35 has left him a middle-of-the pack performer even at a weak position.
Adrian Beltre : Turns out the allure of a new contract isn't the only thing that causes Beltre to hit well, as his 16 of 19 homers at home show. Unless the Rangers trade him, he'll be golden for the second half.
Kevin Youkilis : Youkilis' sub-.300 batting average would give me reason to think he'll improve if I had some assurance the latest foot sprain, quad strain or back pain won't be coming his way. Don't forget to duck, Kevin.

Shortstops
Derek Jeter : I know what you're thinking. Given Jeter's obvious decline and injury risk, he deserves a "down" arrow, but he can't lose value if Fantasy owners already treat him as laughingstock. What he really is -- a serviceable low-end starter in mixed leagues -- he's likely to stay.
Asdrubal Cabrera : Cabrera's power numbers have tailed off a little since his big May, but not enough to make me think he's going to be anything less than an elite shortstop in the second half. Age 25 seems about right for a breakout, so I'm buying it.
Jhonny Peralta : I want so much to believe in Peralta given his dual eligibility at third base and shortstop, but his strikeout-to-walk ratio hasn't improved enough from last year to convince me he's more than a .250 hitter.

Outfielders
Jose Bautista : Bautista is on pace for the exact same number of homers he had last year, but with a batting average 74 points higher. He just keeps getting better and better, and I have no reason to think it'll stop now. The guy has the learning capacity of a six-year-old.
Curtis Granderson : It's not that Granderson has become a significantly better power hitter. It's just that he's now capable of hitting lefties, adding to his usual totals against righties. It's progress, and since it has nothing to do with his batting average, which remains restricted by his high strikeout rate, it's real.
Josh Hamilton : Does Hamilton have the capacity to return to his MVP numbers of a year ago? Sure. But only if he can avoid the cracked rib or strained hamstring that seems to affect him every other month.
Michael Cuddyer : Cuddyer's late push to the All-Star game seems a little too good to be true considering he was waiver fodder six weeks ago. Then again, he's only a year removed from a 32-homer, 94-RBI campaign. So basically, he's the odd-year version of Aubrey Huff. I can live with that.
Jacoby Ellsbury : Most people expected Ellsbury to rebound as a base-stealer and contact hitter after his injury-plagued 2010. Few expected he'd also live up to his long-forgotten power potential. Guess the scouts have something on us common folks after all.
Matt Joyce : On the fence here. Joyce's slump began when the Rays were facing a disproportionate number of left-handed pitchers, but it has continued even against righties. Still, enough Fantasy owners have given up on him that I'm unwilling to downgrade him further.
Carlos Quentin : Quentin should launch a campaign against interleague play. The scheduling gimmick ruined his momentum by forcing the White Sox to move him in and out of the lineup. He's batting only .194 since it began and should rebound now that it's over.

Designated Hitters
David Ortiz : Miraculous resurgence at age 35? Nope, just a case of remembering that lefties are half the equation. Ortiz's OPS against righties now (.929) is actually worse than it was a year ago (1.059), which has me believing he's for real.

Starting Pitchers
Josh Beckett : True, the percentages can't get any better for Beckett, but between the stiff neck, stomach illness and hyperextended knee, he has left his Fantasy owners feeling less than satisfied. You might actually be able to buy low on him now.
Gio Gonzalez : It's not like Gonzalez is pitching way over his head, but if he continues to walk batters at a league-leading pace, his ERA will feel it sooner or later. And on the low-scoring Athletics, so will his win-loss record.
Felix Hernandez : Honestly, it's been a little disappointing so far. The other-worldly ERA that secured Hernandez the Cy Young award last year has been ... well, worldly. His peripherals look about right, though, which means a second half like last year's wouldn't surprise.
Jon Lester : Lester typically saves his best work for the second half, but he typically doesn't enter that second half with a strained muscle in his back. The loss of momentum might keep him out of the Cy Young race but won't ruin him as a Fantasy ace.
Alexi Ogando : As primarily a reliever last year, Ogando threw a combined 78 1/3 innings. As exclusively a starter this year, he already has 104 2/3. A similar increase didn't bother C.J. Wilson last year, but the threat of collapse makes Ogando a sell-high candidate right now.
Michael Pineda : Will the Mariners put an innings limit on Pineda in his rookie season? No. But that doesn't mean his body won't once he exceeds his current career high of 139 1/3. And it doesn't mean the Mariners won't find other ways to preserve his arm if they fall out of contention.
David Price : Price's ERA seems kind of high considering his other numbers, which include career bests in WHIP, strikeout rate and walk rate, but he's still not dominant enough consistently enough for me to classify him as a buy-low candidate.
Ricky Romero : Yeah, Romero's 3.09 ERA looks like progress, but so did his 2.83 ERA through 16 starts last year. It all fell apart for him over the final three months, and considering his peripherals haven't changed any from one year to the next, I wouldn't discount it from happening again. He's a quality pitcher, but not All-Star level.
CC Sabathia : Well, I planned to give Sabathia an "up" arrow after his less-than-stellar percentages over his first 16 starts, but then he channeled his inner Brewer over his final four starts, striking out 42 in 31 2/3 innings with a 0.28 ERA. Now, all is as it should be.
James Shields : Shields' renewed emphasis on location -- not just throwing strikes, but quality strikes -- has helped him find the consistency that eluded him earlier his career, and the results have been Roy Halladay-like. Not buying that explanation? Well, I am. I always liked the peripherals.
Justin Verlander : Yup, he has 12 wins, a 2.14 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP. Yup, I expect him to perform at about the same level in the second half. Yup, I see a Cy Young award in his future.
Jered Weaver : In fairness, I don't actually expect Weaver's MLB-leading 1.86 ERA to last, but he's so good in so many other ways that you won't even notice the slight increase. I wouldn't at all be motivated to move him coming off his big first half.
C.J. Wilson : Wilson may not be as good as some of the pitchers left off the All-Star team -- ahem, Dan Haren -- but his numbers are perfectly sustainable, especially with the Rangers offense backing him. His reduced walk rate has also helped by allowing him to pitch deeper into games.

Relief Pitchers
Aaron Crow : As things stand now, Crow's Fantasy value won't change much, but it's not so good to start with. If only Joakim Soria had continued to struggle. If only the Royals had a complete lack of rotation options.
Brandon League : League was supposed to be just a short-term closer coming into the season, and based on his poor strikeout rate, that'd be for the best. But considering David Aardsma still hasn't begun a rehab assignment, League is likely in the role for the long term, for whatever that's worth to you in Fantasy.
Chris Perez : Perez's lack of strikeouts is a little perplexing, but considering nobody can hit him still -- he's allowing 6.5 hits per nine innings -- it's probably no reason for alarm. He turned the corner in the second half last year and hasn't really let up since.
Mariano Rivera : Unless you just resort to the familiar "he's old" argument, you really have no reason to doubt Rivera in the second half. The middle of another All-Star season would be a pretty random time to take that stance with him.
David Robertson : Well, isn't that cute? The Yankees got their setup man in the All-Star game even though he's a virtual unknown in Fantasy. So should he be known? Unless you expect his 1.27 ERA to continue -- and with a 1.34 WHIP, it won't -- then no.
Jose Valverde : Valverde's track record will earn him the benefit of the doubt among Fantasy owners, but his career-high walk rate and career-low strikeout rate is a dangerous combination, especially after his second-half collapse a year ago.
Jordan Walden : What's not to love about a rookie closer with six blown saves who every other week seems to lose the support of his fan base? OK, so his other numbers are actually pretty good. The Angels don't have any real alternatives, so his job, and thus his value, appears safe.

National League

Catchers
Brian McCann : More than three months into the season, I have yet to hear of McCann submitting to another laser surgery or breaking out the Danny Schayes goggles. Amazing what a little eyesight can do.
Yadier Molina : Is anything about the All-Star game more deflating to Fantasy owners than a defense-oriented pick? You know it's important, but you just can't make yourself care. Oh well. Molina is what he is -- useful, but not great.
Miguel Montero : Montero is currently the No. 4 catcher in Head-to-Head leagues, which is pretty cool and all, but you won't find a less enticing No. 4 player at any other position. Try trading him, and you'll realize you're better off sticking with him.

First Basemen
Prince Fielder : The bad Fielder, if you can call him that, shows up in even years. The good one shows up in odd years and with mega millions on the line. He's done before what he's doing now, leaving no reason to think it won't continue.
Gaby Sanchez : It's already happening. Sanchez's power spike at the beginning of this year seemed a little too good to be true, and his three homers in his last 130 at-bats confirms it. He's good, but he's closer to Billy Butler than Paul Konerko.
Joey Votto : If not for the decline in homers, Fantasy owners would have no reason to complain about Votto's production. He's the same player he was last year, which makes me think he'll make up ground in that one area in the second half.

Second Basemen
Rickie Weeks : With a year and a half of full health, safe to say Weeks' injury woes are behind him. With Dan Uggla going all Bob Hamelin on us, 30-homer second basemen are rare enough for Weeks to contend for top honors at the position.
Brandon Phillips : Phillips has been just productive enough for Fantasy owners to overlook the fact he's on pace for a 14-homer, eight-steal season. The decline, premature as it may be, has been steady, and I have a feeling it'll catch up to him in terms of Fantasy production sooner than later.

Third Basemen
Placido Polanco : Pretty obvious here. Even if Polanco is able to grimace his way through the bulging disc in his back, he won't be an assured .300 hitter playing hurt. And as less than an assured .300 hitter, he might as well be Omar Infante.
Chipper Jones : By now, Fantasy owners have a pretty good grasp of what kind of player Jones is. And though he'll miss the first couple weeks of the second half, his numbers might actually improve a little when he returns since he'll no longer be playing with a torn meniscus in his knee.
Scott Rolen : Rolen's All-Star nod shows that players are as blinded by big names and lengthy track records as fans. His value doesn't stand to change much if he's already an afterthought in Fantasy.
Pablo Sandoval : Sandoval hadn't completely proven himself before breaking his wrist and looked like a potential bust in his first two weeks back. But he erased those concerns with 15 extra-base hits, including three homers, over his final 15 first-half games. Yup, the Round Mound of Pound is back.

Shortstops
Jose Reyes : Reyes won't necessarily lose his No. 1 ranking at shortstop, but his MVP-like first half was directly tied to his ability to stay healthy. The tide already seems to be turning there.
Starlin Castro : Yeah, Castro is hitting over .300, which I guess is good enough to make him an All-Star at a weak position. But he did the same thing as a rookie last season with nearly the exact same OPS. I have to see some progression there to predict more.
Troy Tulowitzki : Tulowitzki may seem like a disappointment in Fantasy with his .268 batting average, but considering he's a career .314 hitter in the second half compared to .264 in the first, I'm thinking he'll make a push to be the No. 1 overall pick next year.

Outfielders
Ryan Braun : Braun is so automatic in Fantasy that his continued evolution this year hasn't gotten the recognition it deserves. He's only one steal away from his career high of 20, making him a legitimate five-category threat and potential 30-30 man.
Lance Berkman : You may see an aging veteran playing over his head. I see a guy with only one bad season for his entire career. Berkman might not remain the NL leader in homers and OPS, but he'll remain an elite Fantasy option.
Matt Kemp : Whiffed on this one in spring training. Not only is Kemp still a 30-30 candidate, but he nearly achieved the milestone in the first half alone. I could make my usual argument about his high strikeout rate bringing down his batting average, but at this point, it'd be nothing more than stubbornness.
Jay Bruce : Bruce's May earned him a trip to the All-Star game. His April and June have earned him the ire of Fantasy owners. Let's see ... awesome September, bad April, awesome May, bad June. I'm sensing a pattern, which means Bruce has more good months than bad ahead.
Carlos Beltran : I'm happy Beltran has made a complete recovery after two lost seasons. Really, good for him. But a player at his age with his injury history is a sell-high candidate the moment he does something that casts him in a positive light, like make an All-Star team.
Andre Ethier : Fantasy owners might be a little more positive about Ethier's career-high batting average if he didn't rank 27th among outfielders. But his two homers Sunday should lead to a power resurgence in the second half, especially given his track record.
Matt Holliday : Holliday lost nearly a month because of a quadriceps injury that the Cardinals kept trying to shortcut, yet he's still a top-25 outfielder. I would give him an "up" arrow, but it's not like anyone is down on him.
Andrew McCutchen : Even if McCutchen wasn't a late addition to the actual team, he'd be an All-Star in all of our hearts. He's the man, a legitimate five-category stud and the next great outfielder in Fantasy.
Hunter Pence : Well, yeah, Pence looks awesome when he's hitting .323, but a 23-game hit streak deserves most of the credit for that. He profiles as more of the .285-hitting, 25-homer man he's been the last two years, so now might be your last chance to sell high on him.
Shane Victorino : Just when everything seems to be going right for Victorino and he appears on the verge of setting career highs across the board, he does something like sprain his thumb. It's too predictable for me to discount him because of it. At least it's out of the way now.
Justin Upton : Upton might be having the quietest resurgence of any elite player in Fantasy. Doesn't anyone remember how underwhelming this guy was last year? Wasn't anyone concerned that he might not return to his five-category ways? OK, me neither.

Starting Pitchers
Matt Cain : Another trip to the All-Star game only cements Cain's place as the best non 15-game winner the world has ever known. He does everything else right, and it's been that way for three years. No reason to think it'll change now.
Kevin Correia : In a testament to all that is wrong with the wins statistic, Correia is an All-Star, and my stomach hurts. With peripherals similar to Nick Blackburn, he can only go down from here.
Roy Halladay : Just when you thought he couldn't get any better, Halladay entered the All-Star break with a career-high 8.7 strikeouts per nine innings. Unsustainable? Maybe. But I'll cut him some slack and call him the best pitcher in Fantasy anyway.
Cole Hamels : You know, Hamels did this same thing last year, posting a 2.07 ERA over his final 16 starts. But in a cruel twist of fate, he won only six of those starts. Whatever. He's an ace. You should know it by now.
Jair Jurrjens : Don't break out those J.J. for C.Y. buttons just yet. Jurrjens has proven to be an effective big-league pitcher over his career -- and that won't change now -- but he's not enough of a bat-misser to maintain a sub-2.00 ERA. And he's not enough of an innings-eater to stick with the big guns.
Clayton Kershaw : With six starts of eight innings or more, Kershaw has finally reached a point with his control where his pitch counts no longer come back to bite him. And low and behold, he has his best strikeout rate yet. That's the perfect recipe for a Fantasy ace.
Cliff Lee : Safe to say Lee's little shutout streak at the end of June silenced all the doubters. He may be streakier than you'd prefer, but he's still the closest thing you'll find to a left-handed Roy Halladay.
Tim Lincecum : Granted, nobody thinks of Lincecum as less than an ace, but his 7-7 record and recent struggles with high pitch counts might have you forgetting just how much of an ace. He endured a similar stretch last season and then turned it up in September and October. I'm not selling him short now.
Ryan Vogelsong : We do know the Giants won't remove Vogelsong from the rotation. We don't know why he's so much better this year. I've seen enough to believe he's a good pitcher, but not 2.17 ERA good.

Relief Pitchers
Heath Bell : If Bell stays where he is, he's the same elite closer as always, but with the Padres falling out of contention, his future is completely up in the air. The uncertainty is enough for me to at least test the market.
Tyler Clippard : Now in his third straight year with next-to-unhittable stuff, Clippard gives you little reason to doubt his numbers. Of course, with no saves in his future, he also gives you little reason to own him outside of deeper Rotisserie leagues.
Joel Hanrahan : He may pitch for an overachieving Pirates team and may have achieved a career-low ERA despite a career-low strikeout rate, but Hanrahan's stuff and gradual progression have me convinced he's one of the best closers in Fantasy even if his numbers are due to regress slightly.
Craig Kimbrel : Some would argue, based on his save total and strikeout rate, that Kimbrel is the best closer in Fantasy. But with the best middle reliever in Fantasy behind him, he has an unfairly short leash. An untimely blown save, like the five he had in the first half, could significantly alter his outlook.
Jonny Venters : Venters is as valuable as any middle reliever has ever been in Fantasy, which means he's already defying the odds. If he finds himself in a position to save games, his value will rise, but otherwise, any slight increase in his ERA or WHIP could ruin him.
Brian Wilson : Fear the beard? No, fear the WHIP. Wilson's walk and strikeout rates are both the worst they've been since he began closing. It probably won't matter since he pitches for a team perfectly constructed for save opportunities, but it's reason to think he could have some speed bumps ahead.

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