July 18, 2011

Sliders: Fish feature flier fodder

By Scott White | Fantasy Writer
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When the Marlins first became a franchise in 1993, I have to admit I didn't know what a marlin was. Look, I was nine. Fish were fish.

Not only that, but they were only fish, as in the least intimidating creatures not yet presented in marshmallow candy form. Needless to say, I was less than impressed.

Then, I read The Old Man and the Sea.

In one of the most unintended allegories in literary history, the team suddenly took on a whole new identity for me. The marlin in that story was big, fast and strong. With every thrust, I saw a Matt Mantei fastball. With every leap, a Cliff Floyd moon shot. With every tail whip, a charging Mark Kotsay ready to run me over. I was terrified.

It completely ruined my summer of 1998.

Time passed, and the word "marlin," as words often do, came to lose its distinctiveness. The Marlins did their thing, I did mine, and that all worked for a while.

But lately, I've been having those same feelings of dread as I watch the Marlins dismantle one pitching staff after another, wondering if all the jokes and dismissive comments during their franchise-worst June came from my own lack of understanding.

Once again, I'm just now catching on to all the Marlins have to offer.

Sliders ... These players are more than just hot or cold. Their recent play indicates a long-term change in value.

Emilio Bonifacio, 2B/3B/SS/OF, Marlins

Of course, no reference to The Old Man and the Sea would be complete without, ahem, the old man, and in this case, it's 80-year-old manager Jack McKeon, who took over on June 20 in what seemed like an act of desperation for a floundering franchise.

But few managers have been able to change a team's identity so quickly, and few managers have had a greater immediate impact in Fantasy.

McKeon's greatest success story -- aside from Hanley Ramirez, of course -- is Bonifacio, who was moved to the leadoff spot and entered play Monday batting .403 (25 for 62) during a 16-game hitting streak to raise his season batting average from .259 to .290.

But that's not even the important part for Fantasy owners. McKeon himself doesn't necessarily expect the career .261 hitter to keep it going.

"I told him, 'Look, you're not going to hit .300,'" McKeon told the South Florida Sun Sentinel in the earliest days of the streak. "'Your job is not to worry about hitting .300.'"

So what is Bonifacio's job?

"[McKeon] told me to be real aggressive on the bases, to run with intelligence, not just to run," Bonifacio said. "That's my job, to get on base and try to apply pressure with my speed."

Yes. Yes! That's exactly what Fantasy owners want to hear, even if they've forgotten they wanted to hear it.

Think back to 2009, when Bonifacio was getting his first shot at regular playing time. He put himself on the map in the team's very first game of the season, hitting an inside-the-park home run and stealing three bases. By the end of that first week, he was batting .500 (14 for 28) and getting scooped up in every Fantasy league. Fantasy owners didn't necessarily expect the hot hitting to continue, but with that kind of speed, it didn't have to.

The stolen bases dried up from there, though, and the enthusiasm went along with it. Bonifacio finished 2009 with only 21 steals, had only 12 in 2010, and continued the downward trend with only five over the team's first 79 games this year, causing us to forget what made him so exciting in the first place.

Bonifacio didn't become a Fantasy afterthought because of a lack of playing time. He became a Fantasy afterthought because he didn't do anything with the playing time he got.

But that's where McKeon's influence comes in. During the hitting streak, Bonifacio has an incredible 12 steals, getting caught only once. With that aspect of his game restored, he doesn't have to hit .403 or even .290 to make a significant impact in Fantasy. It's the Juan Pierre formula all over again.

Except unlike Pierre, Bonifacio is eligible all over the diamond, including two of the weakest positions in Fantasy: shortstop and third base.

With his playing time secure under a manager who believes in him, why wouldn't you take a flier on him?

Javier Vazquez, SP, Marlins

One of the organization's rare free-agent signings during its history, Vazquez was a symbol of the Marlins' futility earlier this season. Through eight starts, he had a 7.55 ERA and a fastball in the mid-80s, continuing a decline that began in New York one year earlier. He was more than just a has-been. He was a running joke.

But something changed in a start against the Rays on May 21. For the first time all season, Vazquez allowed fewer than three earned runs in a game. In fact, he allowed none on three hits over seven innings, striking out seven and walking two as his fastball reached the lower 90s for the first time. Of course, it was dismissed as an isolated incident when he followed it up with a couple of poor showings, but as time has passed and the numbers have continued to accumulate, it has begun to look more and more like a turning point.

Vazquez has a 3.66 ERA and 1.16 WHIP and 7.9 strikeouts per nine innings in 11 starts since that fateful interleague game, which is more than half of his season so far. And with his fastball holding steady in the lower 90s during that time, his average fastball velocity for the season is up to 89.7 miles per hour.

During his last great season for the Braves in 2009, when he finished fourth in NL Cy Young voting, it was 91.1.

If he's not quite back to being the pitcher he was then, he's inching his way there, and though I don't think he has another near-Cy Young season in him at age 34, he at least has the potential to be an advisable mixed-league option again. He already has been.

When assessing Vazquez, try to look beyond his overall numbers and whatever biases you may have formed at the beginning of the season. He's a different pitcher now. He's owned in only 46 percent of leagues and has the potential to be a significant contributor off the waiver wire.

Justin Smoak, 1B, Mariners

You see that rising pillar fading off in the distance?

It's Smoak. From a crash landing, most likely.

To say the second-year player is cold would be an understatement. He's batting .091 (6 for 66) over his last 19 games, lowering his season batting average from .264 to a pitiful .227.

And the effect on his Fantasy value is, well, alarming. To date, he now has fewer Head-to-Head points than Ryan Ludwick, Aubrey Huff, Chipper Jones and Alcides Escobar, among others.

Something about that list just doesn't add up, does it? Smoak is cold, yeah, but he isn't the first player to slump for weeks at a time. All four of those other players have at times this year, so shouldn't Smoak's earlier triumphs be enough to keep him ahead of them in the rankings?

That's the problem. Smoak's earlier triumphs were overblown, hinging on the expectation he'd continued to improve. Thanks to his lack of lineup support in Seattle, whether or not Smoak catches fire again doesn't even matter for Fantasy owners because he wasn't on fire to begin with. Earlier triumphs included, he's on pace for 73 RBI and an abysmal 40 runs scored this season. Over the 15 scoring periods in standard Head-to-Head leagues, he has scored more than 15 points only six times and more than 20 points only three times.

Maybe those numbers wouldn't be so bad for a shortstop, but at the deepest position in Fantasy, you need better than that.

I've seen enough from Smoak this year to believe he won't deliver it, at least at this stage of his career. I like the direction he's headed with the rising walk rate and power production, but I can wait until 2012 to check in on him again.

Jake Peavy, SP, White Sox

This spring, everyone was so preoccupied with whether or not Peavy would pitch that the debate over whether or not he'd pitch well never really began.

He was coming off shoulder surgery -- a shoulder surgery without historical precedent in baseball, but shoulder surgery nonetheless. The concern for pitchers coming off shoulder surgery is a loss of velocity, so as long as his velocity was fine, he'd be fine.

Well, his velocity is fine, his fastball averaging 90 to 91 miles per hour, as it has throughout his career. But clearly, he's not, which means a thorough discussion of his effectiveness is long overdue.

Peavy has only two quality starts all season and none since returning from a strained groin in late June. His ERA in four starts during that stretch is 7.06.

Granted, his walk rate and home run rate are both normal -- maybe even a little better than normal -- so nothing about his numbers suggests he's a significantly changed pitcher. He's just giving up more line drives. The increase could simply be a matter of not locating his pitches, which wouldn't be unusual for a pitcher coming off surgery.

But for it to improve, Peavy has to stay on the mound for an extended period of time. And what caused this recent slump? A groin injury, which only adds to his growing reputation as an injury-prone player. You could tolerate the bumps and bruises if he delivered ace-like numbers in between, but as a pitcher feeling his way back from surgery, they could keep him in a perpetual rut -- and that's assuming his shoulder doesn't become a problem again.

Peavy's velocity suggests he could still salvage something, but how long will it take? And how many bumps in the road will he encounter along the way? Frankly, I'm not sure he's worth the trouble anymore in standard mixed leagues, not with all the other enticing options out there. I'd take my chances on pitchers like John Danks, Derek Holland, Carlos Carrasco, Javier Vazquez and R.A. Dickey before I resorted to Peavy.

Hanging Sliders ... These guys look like Sliders, but not so fast! Their recent play might cause you to misinterpret their Fantasy appeal.

Francisco Rodriguez, RP, Brewers

When the Mets traded Rodriguez to Milwaukee over the All-Star break, his Fantasy owners let out a collective groan.

"That's it. He's done as a closer. Cut him. Forget about him."

Considering all the details, it wasn't necessarily an illogical reaction. The Brewers already had an established closer in John Axford, so they wouldn't even be tempted to have Rodriguez finish the 21 games necessary to trigger his $17.5 million option for next year. They'd have far more to lose than gain by making the switch.

But at the time of the trade, neither manager Ron Roenicke nor general manager Doug Melvin seemed especially comfortable with the idea of avoiding Rodriguez in the ninth inning, and just a couple day later, they put their money where their mouth is, making the option a mutual option by increasing the buyout from $3.5 million to $4 million. In other words, they decided to pay $500,000 just so they'd have the ability to use Rodriguez as their closer this year.

Why would they negotiate such a deal if they didn't plan to act on it? That'd be almost as illogical as making Rodriguez the closer with the option still intact. Clearly, they're intrigued by Rodriguez's potential as the closer, and they should be. He has a much longer track record than Axford and, by some measurements, has had the better season.

I understand that, as the situation currently stands in Milwaukee, Axford appears to be Roenicke's preferred choice in the ninth inning. Entering Monday, he had saved the team's last two games, with Rodriguez working the eighth inning in each. But Axford allowed a run in both of those games and has now allowed five runs in his last seven. Rodriguez, on the other hand, pitched two scoreless innings and now has seven straight.

Axford may technically be the closer in Milwaukee, but he's on a very, very short leash and is giving the Brewers all the excuse they need to make a switch. And given Rodriguez's track record, once they make the switch, they won't switch back.

Come September, K-Rod will likely to be one of the top closers in baseball still, making him well worth stashing in all Fantasy leagues that reward saves.

Travis Snider, OF, Blue Jays

This is it, right? This is when Snider finally lives up to his potential? Oh look, he's batting .391 (18 for 46) in 11 games since returning from the minors. Pick him up! Pick him up!

Sure, go ahead. Taking a flier on a high-upside player is never a bad idea in Fantasy. I just don't see any reason to get particularly excited about this one.

How many homers does he have during all that hot hitting? Just one, right? That gives him two now in 133 major-league at-bats this season. And though you could argue most of those at-bats came before his demotion, you can't hide from the fact he has only four homers in 334 at-bats between the majors and minors this season. Yeah, let's throw a parade for him.

Snider hit .333 at Triple-A Las Vegas, and the Blue Jays acted like it was some big step forward for him. I'm not buying it. He's a career .306 hitter in the minors, so a high batting average down there is nothing out of the ordinary for him.

I want to see some bombs. I need to see them before I can trust Snider to make an impact in mixed leagues. Maybe that sounds a little harsh. After all, Todd Helton has remained a viable Fantasy contributor despite being limited to 15 homers or so over the last few years. But for Helton, a high batting average isn't his only source of production. He also has one of the highest walk rates in the league. Snider is on the opposite end of the spectrum, walking just 11 times in his 133 at-bats and once in 46 at-bats since returning to the bigs.

Plus, he has a whole history of failure in the majors up to this point. I'm not saying he's incapable of turning his career around at age 23, but for someone with his poor track record, one little hot streak isn't going to win me over. Frankly, I'd be more encouraged by his performance if this was his first stint in the big leagues.

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