Aug. 14, 2011

Week 20 Fantasy Pitching Planner

By Al Melchior | Data Analyst
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Two-start weeks have given a boost to the value of a few pitchers for Fantasy Week 20 (Aug. 15-21). Madison Bumgarner (@ATL, @HOU) falls just short of our top 10 this week, while Mike Leake (@WAS, @PIT) and Cory Luebke (NYM, FLA) both placed in the upper half of the top 70. Josh Collmenter (@PHI, @ATL) and Rick Porcello (MIN, CLE), who have been too inconsistent to trust outside of deeper leagues in most one-start weeks, are viable options in standard mixed leagues due to their double dips.

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One name that probably looks out of place on our top 70, much less all the way up at No. 49, is Ivan Nova. Roughly a week ago, it appeared that Nova was on the verge of a demotion to Triple-A. The young righty has been so effective lately that Yankees manager Joe Girardi has decided to keep him in the rotation, while leaving A.J. Burnett and Phil Hughes to vie for the fifth starter's spot. But it's not just Nova's recent exploits that have catapulted him into this week's top 70 list. To find out why he ranks among next week's top pitchers, you'll need to check out the "Add/Activate Targets" section further down below.

On your way to learning more about Nova and other notable starters this week, use the interactive Starting Pitchers tool to see what your Fantasy pitchers have in store for them. The tool includes matchup, ownership and performance data for every pitcher scheduled or likely to make a start in Week 20.

Borderline Two-Start Pitchers

Henderson Alvarez, Toronto: After manhandling Double-A hitters as a 21-year-old, Alvarez got his first shot at the major leagues on Wednesday, making his debut against the A's. The hard- throwing Venezuelan allowed eight hits in 5 2/3 innings, but he escaped with just three earned runs. With his callup, Alvarez has gone from being owned in one percent of the leagues on CBSSports.com to 12 percent over the course of just a few days. Given that he was reasonably successful against Oakland, and that he will face them again along with the Mariners in Week 20, there could be a temptation to get him active right away. However, Alvarez's debut could have gone much worse -- he allowed line drives on seven of 21 hit balls -- so the adjustment from Double-A to the American League could be a bumpy one. Despite the attractive matchups, use Alvarez only as a last resort.

A.J. Burnett, N.Y. Yankees: With the rainout of the Rays-Yankees game on Sunday, Burnett and the rest of the New York rotation got pushed back a day. As a result, Burnett currently lines up to get two starts in Week 20, but he still doesn't look like a high percentage play in standard mixed leagues for the coming scoring period. It's not just his streak of seven straight sub-quality starts (during which he has posted a 6.00 ERA) that should have Fantasy owners concerned. Though Burnett is scheduled to start Monday's series opener at Kansas City, he could be booted from the rotation before the weekend series at Minnesota. If manager Joe Girardi opts to keep Burnett in the rotation over Phil Hughes, or if he decides to stay with a six-man rotation, then Burnett has a little more value next week. However, with his uncertain status, it's best to avoid Burnett outside of deeper mixed leagues and AL-only formats.

Josh Collmenter, Arizona: After a pair of awful outings against the Dodgers, Collmenter bounced back on Wednesday with a strong performance against the Astros. It would be easy to discount the value of that accomplishment, as the Astros are a stripped-down version of a team that wasn't hitting much to begin with. Still, Collmenter has been effective overall this season, and he put together three very good starts before tanking against the Dodgers. In other words, there is still enough to like about Collmenter in a two-start week, even one in which he faces the dominant Phillies. He hasn't been consistent in his ability to miss bats, but he is often able to induce weak popups, and he doesn't hurt himself with walks.

R.A. Dickey, N.Y. Mets: Dickey has lost his last three starts, but the Mets offered a grand total of one run of support in the first two of those games. His run support has been on the tepid side this season, but over the last 30 days, only the Padres and Phillies have scored more runs than the Mets among National League teams. (You did read that right. The Padres have led the league in scoring over the last 30 days.) Dickey is much better than his 5-11 record would indicate, and his stat line would look an awful lot like Johnny Cueto's with a little more luck on balls in play and with stranding baserunners. He would also have more wins with better run support, but given how much more productive the Mets have been lately, owners can expect him to get more help from his lineup in future starts. Though he is owned in only 34 percent of our leagues, he's a useful arm in a broad range of formats when he goes to the mound twice. Dickey will face the Padres and Brewers in the coming week.

Aaron Harang, San Diego: Remember when Harang returned from the DL back in early July to post back-to-back scoreless starts? If you haven't heard much about Harang since then, it's because there hasn't been much good to talk about. Aside from a start against the Phillies, Harang hasn't been dealt challenging matchups, but he hasn't been a productive Fantasy hurler of late. Over his last five starts, the former Red has compiled a 6.51 ERA and an outrageous 2.02 WHIP, as his command has not been as sharp as it was earlier this year. Some of Harang's recent troubles may be the result of bad luck on balls in play, but he would have to improve his recent numbers radically in order to be usable in most mixed leagues. Even in a two-start week, owners would be well served to give Harang a rest.

Francisco Liriano, Minnesota: Liriano went through a 12-game stretch between early May and mid-July where he looked like the pitcher he was in 2010. While he was walking a few too many batters, Liriano wasn't killing himself with free passes, and he was avoiding contact often enough to get away with it. Over his last four starts, Liriano has had a much harder time finding the strike zone, walking 15 batters in 20 1/3 innings and throwing only 55 percent of his pitches for strikes. That's almost a mirror image of his April numbers, which means that Liriano has been a disaster for nearly one-third of the season to date. Fantasy owners don't need to deal with that kind of volatility in standard and shallow mixed leagues, so with one start or two, owners should consider Liriano off-limits in those formats, until he rights the ship.

Ted Lilly, Colorado: Lilly may have turned a corner, having allowed only five earned runs over 19 innings in his last three starts combined. Even at his best, though, Lilly is a pitcher to be avoided whenever he faces power-hitting lineups in home run environments. He will do that not once, but twice, in Week 20, as Lilly will go up against the Brewers and Rockies in their home parks. Mixed league owners need to stay away from Lilly, and he could even be risky in NL-only leagues.

Cory Luebke, San Diego: Luebke finally showed some warts in a recent string of starts against the Phillies, Diamondbacks and Dodgers, allowing opponents to hit .301 against him over that stretch. A 27 percent line drive rate suggests that Luebke was truly hittable, though he did bounce back in his most recent starts against the Pirates and Mets. His lack of an extensive track record and a recent pattern of inconsistency suggest that standard mixed league owners shouldn't be starting Luebke every week, and that may even hold for some two-start weeks. In Week 20, though, he will match up against the struggling Marlins (as well as the Mets), so it's a worthy risk to start Luebke and hope for one of his better performances.

Michael Pineda, Seattle: Pineda's production seemed to be tailing off around the All-Star break, but he regained his early-season form in his most recent starts against the Rays and Rangers. Because of his high flyball rate, Pineda is still to be used with caution when he goes to homer-friendly parks, but there should be no worries when he takes on the Blue Jays at home and gets a rematch against the Rays in St. Petersburg.

Rick Porcello, Detroit: A recent stretch of good starts came to a crashing halt on Wednesday, as Porcello got pounded for eight runs in 3 2/3 innings at Cleveland. His streak was too good to be true, but the fact remains that Porcello has been a better pitcher this year. In his third season, Porcello is getting more strikeouts and refining his control, while still maintaining a high ground ball rate. He's still not close to being a standard mixed league-viable pitcher in most weeks, but with an average of just over 11 Fantasy points per week, he can help in two-start weeks.

Anibal Sanchez, Florida: For most of this season, Sanchez's mediocre ERA and WHIP didn't match up with a high strikeout-to-walk ratio and favorable batted ball rates. More recently, though, he's shifted from being unlucky to just not very good. Of all of the balls hit off Sanchez over his last four starts, nearly one in three has been a line drive, so it's no small wonder that opponents have hit .366 against him in those contests. Sanchez is still throwing strikes -- maybe too many -- so he may just need to tinker a little. He's been bad enough that standard mixed league owners may be left with a tough decision in future one-start weeks (especially if the recent trend continues), but he still deserves a shot with two starts. Sanchez has proven himself over the last three seasons, so he shouldn't be downgraded significantly for a bad four-game stretch.

Jake Westbrook, St. Louis: Westbrook has historically been a good second-half pitcher, and his 3.23 ERA over his last six starts points to a continuation of the trend. Things may not be what they seem, though. To be sure, Westbrook is pitching with better control, as he has lowered his BB/9 rate from 3.7 to 3.5 over his recent hot streak. He has also been helped by a .250 BABIP over the six- game span, but he hasn't put up a low line drive rate to back it up. Westbrook is one of the game's best pitchers at getting ground ball outs, but he is not good enough at avoiding contact or walks be an asset outside of deeper Fantasy leagues. Even with favorable matchups against the Pirates and Cubs, there are better two-start options available.

Randy Wolf, Milwaukee: Wolf's 1.31 WHIP, just a shade under the National League average, attests to the fact that he is no better than average at getting strikeouts and avoiding walks and base hits. Almost everything in his stat line is the definition of normal. One important outlier is his 77 percent strand rate, which helps to explain how Wolf is also the owner of a below-average 3.48 ERA. While earlier in the season, Wolf's favorable left-on-base rate looked downright fluky, his home run (two allowed in 34 1/3 innings), line drive (19 percent) and popup rates (12 percent) over his last five starts make that stat look more believable. Even as a league-average pitcher, Wolf could be trusted with starts against the Dodgers and Mets, but he may be just a little better than average.

Other Add/Activate Targets

Bartolo Colon, N.Y. Yankees: Colon hasn't been as sharp as he was earlier this season, but as he showed in Thursday's meeting with the Angels, there's nothing really wrong with him. Owners can count on Colon to be a frequent visitor to the strike zone, and a lack of walks makes him a reliable source of WHIP. It's hard to figure why Colon is currently benched in 39 percent of the leagues on CBSSports.com, though maybe some owners expected that his record should be better than 8-6 while pitching for the potent Yankees. Surprisingly, Colon has not received that much run support, averaging 5.8 runs per nine innings. That rate is likely to rise, so the 38-year-old can be counted on for wins, as well as ERA and WHIP.

Brandon McCarthy, Oakland: McCarthy may be one of the more surprising inclusions in this week's top 70, but even with one start, the tall righty has the goods to be a viable starter in standard mixed leagues. There's nothing suspicious about his 3.62 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, and if anything, his 70 percent strand rate could stand to be a little higher. That would give McCarthy some room to drop his ERA even lower. He has been one of the most added players over the last couple of weeks, but with an ownership rate of 44 percent, there are still more owners whom McCarthy could be helping. He did suffer a right knee contusion in his last start, but he is expected to make his next start on Wednesday. With a Week 20 matchup against Baltimore, this is a good time to give him a try, even in a 12-team mixed league.

Jonathon Niese, N.Y. Mets: Owners can't be blamed for benching Niese, as he had falied to make it past the sixth inning in any of his three starts just prior to Thursday's game against the Padres. While his results had been poor, Niese did deserve a better fate. Even the worst pitchers usually sport a BABIP rate below .400, but over those three outings, Niese's rate was an astronomical .469. His nightmarish run finally ended on Thursday with a strong performance, but even without this turnaround, owners have enough reasons to trust Niese. His strikeout, walk and ground ball rates are far better than average for a starter, and xFIP estimates that, with better luck, his ERA would be a tidy 3.32.

Ricky Nolasco, Florida: Given Nolasco's history as a flyball pitcher, it's surprising to learn that his ERA in three career starts at Coors Field is just 1.64. That could be the product of the luck that can come from a small sample of innings, but Nolasco might not need any luck to conquer the Rockies in their own park. This season, he has a much lower flyball rate, and that has helped him to limit opponents to 14 homers in 162 innings. Nolasco also draws the struggling Aaron Cook as his foe, so his Week 20 start in Colorado could wind up being much more profitable than it appears to be at first glance.

Ivan Nova, N.Y. Yankees: Nova's command has been much better lately, and that alone might make it worthwhile to start him in standard mixed leagues, even with one start. Nova's newfound success is still a pretty recent phenomenon, so owners probably need a better reason to use him in those formats. That reason exists: Yankees manager Joe Girardi has said that either A.J. Burnett or Phil Hughes could be removed from the rotation, and that could occur within the next few days. If either Burnett or Hughes is yanked before next weekend's series with the Twins, or if Freddy Garcia is not ready to pitch due to his cut finger, that would practically guarantee that Nova would become a two- start pitcher in Week 20. That would give Nova a pair of decent matchups, with starts at Kansas City and Minnesota.

Jake Peavy, Chicago White Sox: It's taken Peavy awhile to get his footing after a midseason DL stint for a groin strain, but it looks like he is starting to come around. He has come away with quality starts three times out of his last five turns in the rotation, and he's amassed a 3.74 ERA and 1.22 WHIP along the way. Peavy has continued to be very stingy with walks (just four total in those five starts), but now he's also improving his line drive and popup rates. It may still be a little premature to trust Peavy in a one-start week other than in deeper leagues, especially with the Rangers coming to town, but there are worse options for the last spot on your lineup card.

Jason Vargas, Seattle: To look at Vargas' splits -- 3.96 ERA at home, 4.06 on the road -- there doesn't appear to be any advantage to starting the lefty in Fantasy when he's pitching at Safeco Field. However, just as he did last season, Vargas is allowing fewer home runs in his home starts and his WHIP when pitching at Safeco is 19 points lower than when he hits the road. Mainly a low strand rate in home games is keeping Vargas from matching last year's 2.86 home ERA. While the Blue Jays aren't a bad- hitting team on the road, Vargas should keep them in check enough to be a decent back-of-the-rotation option in mixed leagues.

Javier Vazquez, Florida: It's not clear what happened to Vazquez on June 16, but that day looks like a turning point in Vazquez's season. In his 13 starts before that date, Vazquez sported a 7.09 ERA, and he was active in fewer than 10 percent of our leagues. Since then, he has a 2.36 ERA, thanks in large part to improved strikeout and walk rates. Vazquez doesn't have the overall stat line of a pitcher who can be used in one-start weeks, but over the last two months, he has been good enough to use in most formats. The 35-year-old isn't a must-start, but he's trustworthy with a single start at pitcher- friendly PETCO Park.

Vance Worley, Philadelphia: Worley's recent run of eye-popping performances had the look of a fluke, and a strand rate approaching 80 percent didn't help that perception. That rate took a serious hit on Wednesday, as six of the ten baserunners he allowed were able to score. While it's likely that Worley has overperformed this season, he is still doing many things well, including getting strikeouts, inducing easy flyball outs and, more recently, limiting his walks. Some may look at his eight-plus runs of support per nine innings as another indication of good luck, but when you pitch for the Phillies, it's reasonable to expect a generous assist from your lineup. Look for Worley to get enough help from his offense, and for him to help himself, when he opposes the Diamondbacks next week, so that he can be used even in some standard mixed leagues.

Other Drop/Stash Targets

Trevor Cahill, Oakland: When Cahill has bombed, he has bombed spectacularly, so it may be hard to fathom that he has made quality starts in almost two-thirds of his outings this year. The problem with Cahill is that lately, he has not balanced out his horrible starts with excellent ones. This year he has had eight games where he has pitched at least seven innings with no more than two earned runs allowed and at least five strikeouts, but he has reached those thresholds only once in his last seven starts. Granted, that's a pretty high standard, and it's not one that needs to be met to be useful in a two- start week. However, with Cahill having allowed four earned runs or more in eight of his 2011 starts, he needs to be providing owners with more promise of a higher upside, if they are to endure the risks of his implosions.

Doug Fister, Detroit: I've mentioned in each of the last couple of Pitching Planners that Fister's move to Detroit is a boon for him, as he leaves behind the meager run support that the Mariners had provided him. That said, a powerful offense can only help a pitcher so much. The Tigers' bats make Fister a viable two-start pitcher in most weeks now, but they can't help him quite enough when he gets only one start in most cases. He simply allows too much contact, and while his control is very good, it's not Josh Tomlin-good. His 42 percent activation rate is a little too high for a one-start week.

Rich Harden, Oakland: Harden was added to active rosters in 10 percent of our leagues for Week 19, as owners were looking to take advantage of his two-start week. He got through his first start unscathed, as he held the Blue Jays to a single run over seven innings. He didn't fare nearly so well against the Rangers on Sunday, but even regardless of that outcome, many of his owners need to get him back on the bench for Week 20. Harden's copious strikeouts make him a tempting option, but his gopheritis makes him a disaster waiting to happen in any given start. He has already allowed 15 home runs in only 46 innings this season. Harden is not ready to be trusted as a one-start option yet other than in deeper leagues.

Hiroki Kuroda, L.A. Dodgers: Kuroda is having a good season, but a 79 percent strand rate is hiding the fact that he's not the ground ball pitcher he used to be. In three career starts at Colorado, Kuroda has allowed 15 earned runs in 16 1/3 innings. It may be a very small sample, but now that he's allowing flyballs far more frequently, there's no reason to take a chance that Kuroda might improve his Coors Field stats. Leave him on the bench in standard mixed leagues this week.

Kyle Lohse, St. Louis: Earlier this year when Lohse was regularly going seven innings or more, it was a savvy move to use Lohse in just about any Head-to-Head league in just about any week. The last time Lohse pitched at least seven innings in a game was June 22, and he has exceeded six innings just twice since then. At this point, Lohse is not an automatic choice as a two-start pitcher, so there is little reason for him to take up even a reserve slot in standard mixed leagues. He is currently owned in 73 percent of our leagues, but at least a third of his owners need to let him go.

Josh Tomlin, Cleveland: Tomlin is a pitcher with moderate flyball tendencies who tends to give up lots of homers. According to Fangraphs, the Tigers have the second-highest flyball-hitting rate in the majors, and they are a decent power-hitting team. It's not the worst possible matchup for Tomlin, but in a one-start week, standard mixed league owners might as well opt for someone a little less risky.

Might Not Start in Week 20

Zach Duke, Arizona: The Diamondbacks will need to fill the rotation vacancy left by Jason Marquis, who will probably be out for the season after breaking his right fibula in Sunday's game against the Mets. Duke entered Sunday's contest in relief of Marquis, and he could potentially take his spot when it comes up again on Saturday in Atlanta. Minor leaguers Wade Miley and Jarrod Parker could also be under consideration.

Freddy Garcia, N.Y. Yankees: Garcia would have been unable to make his scheduled start on Sunday against the Rays, due to cutting his finger. Though the game was rained out, he will not start again until Friday at the earliest, and there is some chance that he won't be able to start at all during Week 20.

Derek Lowe, Atlanta: Lowe's turn comes up again on Thursday, but the Braves announced that Mike Minor will be the starter for that game against the Giants. In all likelihood, Lowe will re-enter the Atlanta rotation next Sunday to face the Diamondbacks, but no official decision has been made yet as to when Lowe's next start will be.

Zach Stewart, Chicago White Sox: Stewart will be moved to the bullpen for the White Sox's series with the Indians to start the week. If he is not used, he could get a start in the upcoming weekend series against the Rangers. Otherwise, he will remain in a relief role and will not start in Week 20. Should Stewart spend the entire week in the 'pen, Gavin Floyd would become a two-start pitcher.

Dontrelle Willis, Cincinnati: Willis left his start early on Sunday against the Padres with a sore left forearm. He will have his arm examined on Monday and could miss his next scheduled start at Pittsburgh on Saturday.

DL Watch

Jair Jurrjens, Atlanta: Jurrjens (knee) will be eligible to be activated from the DL on Wednesday and is scheduled to start against the Giants that night.

Tommy Hanson, Atlanta: Hanson (shoulder) was placed on the DL on Sunday. He is targeted to return on Aug. 23 to start at the Cubs.

Jason Marquis, Arizona: Marquis broke his right leg on Sunday while pitching against the Mets. He has not been placed on the DL yet, but he could possibly be out for the season.

Scott Baker, Minnesota: Baker was placed on the DL with a right elbow strain. He already served a DL stint with this injury last month. There is currently no timetable for Baker's return.

Chris Narveson, Milwaukee: Narveson was placed on the disabled list, retroactive to Aug. 7, after slicing his left thumb with a pair of scissors. He sustained the injury while trying to repair his glove. Narveson is elgibile to be activated on Aug. 22, but he may need longer than a minimum stay on the disabled list.

Carlos Carrasco, Cleveland: Carrasco was placed on the 15-day disabled list with an inflamed right elbow, retroactive to Aug. 4. He may spend the minimum 15 days on the DL, but he will have to serve his six-game suspension for throwing near Billy Butler's head whenever he gets activated.

Alex Cobb, Tampa Bay: Cobb will have surgery to remove a blockage near his ribs. He is out for the season.

Zach Britton, Baltimore: Britton (shoulder) will start a rehab assignment with Triple-A Norfolk on Tuesday. He could return to the Orioles' rotation sometime during their upcoming road trip, though probably not during Week 20.

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