By the Numbers: Craving a consistent performance
We Fantasy owners like surprises, just as long as they are pleasant surprises. In a perfect world, we would expect our players to exceed expectations on a constant basis, but we don’t live in that world. Since we can't realistically expect our players to up the ante every time they take the field, we look for them to provide the next best thing: consistency. Players who give us a steady level of performance are not only easier to gauge, but they offer us few unpleasant surprises.
For owners who crave consistency, pitchers can be especially frustrating. This season, the typical starting pitcher has provided somewhere between 6 and 18 Fantasy points in less than one out of every three starts. That's a pretty broad range of outcomes, but most pitchers are about as likely post 18 Fantasy points or more in a game as they are to be in the more moderate score range. The same can be said for starts that produce six points or fewer.
While the average pitcher is all over the map in his game-to-game Fantasy production, some are more consistent than others. The graph below sorts starting pitchers into four zones, based on their consistency this season. Justin Verlander, Roy Halladay and Ian Kennedy have not just been among the most consistent pitchers in the majors, but they've been the most reliable producers of high Fantasy point totals. While the average start in 2011 has produced 12 Fantasy points, more than two-thirds of the starts completed by this trio have resulted in 18 points or more for their owners. Aaron Cook, Brad Bergesen and the recently released Kyle Davies have also been remarkably consistent, but not in a good way. However, possibly the most consistent pitcher of all has been the Royals' Felipe Paulino. Out of his 13 starts, 10 (or 77 percent) have been in the range between 6 and 18 Fantasy points. Paulino has rarely been spectacular, but owners have been able to rely on him for some production almost every time out.
While these are just a handful of some of the more consistent performers, the pitchers who populate the central portion of the graph have been far less predictable from game to game. The least consistent pitchers of all are those in the upper left quadrant. Hurlers like David Price, Josh Collmenter and Gio Gonzalez have rarely been just average; they have been either marvelous or miserable in the vast majority of their starts.
While Price, Collmenter and Gonzalez have been frustrating for their owners, just about anyone would agree that they are more worthy of a roster spot than "consistent" performers like Cook and Bergesen. But while consistency may not be all that it's cracked up to be, it can be an important factor in distinguishing between otherwise similar options. For example, Hiroki Kuroda has been roughly as productive on a per-start basis as Jaime Garcia, Ricky Nolasco and Chris Carpenter, but he has been the least consistent of this group by far. Should owners save themselves the heartache of Kuroda's ups and downs or stick with him in the hopes of getting one of his better starts?
If you can't tell when Kuroda is due for one of his more productive performances, then it doesn't make much difference if you use him or Garcia or any other pitcher who has been his equal. Over time, Kuroda's highs and lows will balance each other out, and he will be just as useful as any of his more consistent counterparts. However, if you can pinpoint the starts where he has the best chance to excel, then you can use his inconsistency to your advantage.
Below are ten of the most inconsistent starters this season. For each, there is a list of pitchers who have provided similar Fantasy production on a per-start basis, a brief synopsis of what the source of the inconsistency has been, and a recommendation on how to use him over the final weeks of the season.
David Price, Tampa Bay: 15.4 FPTS per start, 44 percent of starts with at least 18 FPTS, 36 percent with no more than 6 FPTS.
Equivalents: Tommy Hanson (15.4 FPTS per start), Shaun Marcum (15.3), Michael Pineda (15.3).
Source of inconsistency: Many of Price's worst starts have come over the last month and a half, as he has become more susceptible to homers. Price hasn't been allowing more balls in the air; it's just that more of them are leaving the park. Given that his home run per flyball ratio was on the low side earlier in the season, this looks like nothing more than his luck evening out.
Recommendation: Despite his recent struggles, Price is good enough to start in nearly all leagues. A mediocre ground ball rate will leave him vulnerable to cold streaks like his recent one, so owners in very shallow formats have a reason to sit him when more reliable options are available.
Philip Humber, Chicago White Sox: 14.1 FPTS per start, 55 percent of starts with at least 18 FPTS, 35 percent with no more than 6 FPTS.
Equivalents: Jeff Niemann (14.1), Kyle Lohse (14.1), Matt Harrison (14.1).
Source of inconsistency: As with Price, most of Humber's bad starts have been his recent ones. He's been getting hit harder on contact lately, as his surging line drive rate illustrates.
Recommendation: Humber probably isn't quite as bad as his recent performances make it appear, as he isn't likely to maintain the .391 BABIP he has compiled over his last five starts. Still, owners shouldn't view Humber as the equivalent of Niemann or Harrison, even though all three have had similar per-start production. He will probably be more consistent going forward, but his overall value will be lower than what he has shown so far this year overall.
Dillon Gee, N.Y. Mets: 13.8 FPTS per start, 37 percent of starts with at least 18 FPTS, 42 percent with no more than 6 FPTS.
Equivalents: Jordan Zimmermann (13.9), Ivan Nova (13.8), Randy Wolf (13.8)
Source of inconsistency: Gee's control has worsened since mid-June, so his rookie year has really been like two separate seasons. Finding the strike zone wasn't a problem for Gee in the minors (or earlier this year with the Mets), so this appears to be a case of normal inconsistency for a young pitcher adjusting to the big leagues.
Recommendation: Gee has had better results at home, but his peripherals really haven't been any better when he's pitched at Citi Field. While Gee is clearly inconsistent, there are no splits or patterns to help us to spot favorable starts for him. It's best to avoid him in standard mixed leagues, despite his decent overall numbers.
Hiroki Kuroda, L.A. Dodgers: 13.4 FPTS per start, 42 percent of starts with at least 18 FPTS, 33 percent with no more than 6 FPTS.
Equivalents: Jaime Garcia (13.7), Chris Carpenter (13.6), Ricky Nolasco (13.4).
Source of inconsistency: Kuroda has been allowing more extra base hits when he faces lefty batters. Other than that, there aren't any splits that help us to solve the mystery of Kuroda's inconsistency.
Recommendation: Kuroda's splits against lefties aren't as extreme as, say, Charlie Morton's, but it won't matter much in any event. Aside from the Braves, the Dodgers don’t face any good lefty-heavy lineups going forward, so Kuroda can be used in most weeks from here on out.
Derek Holland, Texas: 12.8 FPTS per start, 42 percent of starts with at least 18 FPTS, 38 percent with no more than 6 FPTS.
Equivalents: Madison Bumgarner (12.9), Gio Gonzalez (12.7), Tim Stauffer (12.6).
Source of inconsistency: As noted in an earlier column, Holland has feasted on weak lineups this season, particularly those in the AL West. He's gotten clobbered by the better teams, but Holland has also struggled against some middling offenses.
Recommendation: Most of Holland's remaining schedule is favorable, but standard mixed league owners should be prepared to sit him in Fantasy Weeks 21 and 22, as he could face the Red Sox in both of those scoring periods.
Gio Gonzalez, Oakland: 12.7 FPTS per start, 42 percent of starts with at least 18 FPTS, 42 percent with no more than 6 FPTS.
Equivalents: Madison Bumgarner (12.9),Derek Holland (12.8), Tim Stauffer (12.6).
Source of inconsistency: Gonzalez's control has always been questionable, but it has regressed over his last four starts. This is just the latest extended stretch where Gonzalez has faltered in his efforts to throw strikes.
Recommendation: The lefty is just one of those pitchers who is erratic, so owners should continue to roll with him, unless they just prefer a more stable option like Stauffer.
Josh Collmenter, Arizona: 12.3 FPTS per start, 44 percent of starts with at least 18 FPTS, 38 percent with no more than 6 FPTS.
Equivalents: Brett Cecil (12.3), Bud Norris (12.2), Matt Garza (12.1).
Source of inconsistency: There is no apparent rhyme or reason to Collmenter's triumphs and struggles. He's handled tough lineups like the Brewers and Rockies and flopped when facing teams like the Dodgers, Giants and A's.
Recommendation: Like Gee, Collmenter is experiencing typical rookie inconsistency. Because he is a contact pitcher, he doesn't have the upside of Norris or Garza, but from week to week, he's no worse than Cecil. In other words, he's useful to standard mixed league owners in two-start weeks, but seldom at other times.
Trevor Cahill, Oakland: 11.8 FPTS per start, 42 percent of starts with at least 18 FPTS, 35 percent with no more than 6 FPTS.
Equivalents: Chad Billingsley (11.8), Edwin Jackson (11.8), Erik Bedard (11.8).
Source of inconsistency: For a ground ball pitcher, Cahill has been awfully homer-prone on the road. He has had problems with control in general, but it hasn't come back to haunt him when pitching at spacious O.co Coliseum.
Recommendation: Cahill has become a pitcher who can't be trusted every week, so given his lopsided home/road splits (2.62 ERA at home, 5.42 away), standard mixed league owners might as well sit him whenever he leaves Oakland. He can still be used most weeks when he has home starts, though.
Bruce Chen, Kansas City: 11.3 FPTS per start, 44 percent of starts with at least 18 FPTS, 44 percent with no more than 6 FPTS.
Equivalents: R.A. Dickey (11.3), Doug Fister (11.3), Ubaldo Jimenez (11.3).
Source of inconsistency: Chen, a flyball pitcher, benefits from his home starts at Kauffman Stadium, which is one of the harder places for hitters to homer in the American League. That helps to explain his 3.54 home ERA, as well as his 5.06 ERA everywhere else.
Recommendation: Chen shouldn't be started in standard mixed leagues under any circumstance. In deeper formats, though, he is safe to use as long as he is at Kauffman or some other pitcher-friendly venue.
Kevin Correia, Pittsburgh: 10.6 FPTS per start, 40 percent of starts with at least 18 FPTS, 40 percent with no more than 6 FPTS.
Equivalents: Jake Peavy (10.6), John Lannan (10.6), Carl Pavano (10.5).
Source of inconsistency: A 7.58 ERA at home creates the appearance of PNC Park not being a good match for Correia, but that's just a function of Correia pitching at home more often over the last two months while he has slumped. Earlier in the year, the Pirates' righty was doing a good job of avoiding hard contact, but lately he has been allowing far too many home runs and line drive base hits.
Recommendation: Because Correia's batted ball rates have been moving in the wrong direction over several weeks, there seems to be something seriously wrong here -- something that may not be fixed in short order. Peavy, Lannan and Pavano may appear to be comparable pitchers to Correia in Fantasy, but all three should be starting ahead of him in just about any format.
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| xFIP: Also known as Expected Fielding Independent Pitching. It is an estimate of what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based on factors that a pitcher can control, such as strikeouts, walks and flyballs. xFIP is a derivative of FIP, which was developed by Tom Tango. Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James GO/AO -- Ground out-fly out ratio GB/FB -- Ground ball-fly ball ratio Batting Average per Balls in Play (BABIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30% Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks) Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats |
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