By the Numbers: Pitchers defying our expectations
Pitchers can go on lucky or unlucky streaks for a few weeks at a time, but a few statistical freaks of nature can ride a wave of good or bad luck for most or all of a season. Those who remember Jarrod Washburn's crazy-good '09 run or Dan Haren's disappointing 2010 season know what I'm talking about. Both of those unexpected seasons were largely driven by steaks of luck on balls in play, though in both cases, those streaks lasted for nearly the whole season.
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Ryan Vogelsong, Josh Tomlin, Ubaldo Jimenez and Wade Davis are just a few of the pitchers who have not given Fantasy owners the season that they expected, but which ones have been impacted by luck the most? It's probably too late this season to make roster decisions based on indicators of luck, such as batting average on balls in play (BABIP), batted ball rates and strand rates, but it can be helpful in gauging a pitcher's value for next year.
Below is our Lucky/Unlucky Tool, which places qualifying starting pitchers into "lucky" and "unlucky" zones based on their BABIPs and batted ball rates. Normally, I would single out pitchers residing in those zones and look at their chances for a reversal of fortune for the rest of the season. This week, I'm taking a different approach, zooming in on 10 starting pitchers who have defied our expectations and seeing how much of a role luck may have played in their performance. Each of these pitchers is highlighted in the tool below, with the pitchers exceeding expectations represented by red marks and those falling short of expectations coded in blue.
Why did these pitchers do so well?
Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati: After seeing his strikeout rate dip the last two years, Cueto looked primed for a breakout year, if only he could miss bats the way he did in his 2008 rookie season. Cueto did take a major step forward this year, but in a completely unexpected way. Maybe it's due to improved fastball command or maybe it's the deception created by his new twisting windup, but somehow, Cueto has become a very good ground ball pitcher. His aversion to hard contact makes him almost as useful as a pitcher who avoids contact, but owners can't count on him to post sub-.250 BABIPs every year. He is still just 25, so there is still time for Cueto to improve his K-rate, but even if he does, chances are good that he will drop from the ranks of the top per-game Fantasy producers next season.
Ryan Vogelsong, San Francisco: Vogelsong has been one of the great comeback stories this season, making the All-Star team five years after what looked like the end of an inglorious major league career. Part of Vogelsong's success is owed to pitching home games at AT&T Park, but there's nothing wrong with his road 3.28 ERA. It's been improved control that has made Vogelsong a much better pitcher this year, but he has rolled back much of his progress in recent weeks. His BB/9 rate has increased with each month (as have his ERA and line drive rate), and while Vogelsong threw 65 percent of his pitches for strikes over the first three months, that percentage has dipped to 62 percent since the end of June, according to Baseball-Reference.com. September will be a critical month for Vogelsong. If he does not cut back on his walks going forward, he could be a very risky pick in mixed leagues next year.
Ervin Santana, L.A. Angels: For the first two months of the season, Santana was a pitcher you could trust…as long as he wasn't facing a power-hitting team or visiting a hitters' park. Predictably, he got clocked by the Rangers, Red Sox and Yankees, but something clicked for Santana in June. Over the last three months, he has made a dramatic transition from flyball-pitcher to ground ball gobbler. Statistical measures, as well as some scouting reports, confirm that Santana's slider has been more effective of late, and that could signal sustained improvement for the seventh-year pitcher. In his 14 starts since June 15, Santana has gone 7-3 with a 2.29 ERA, allowed only seven homers in 106 1/ 3 innings and tossed a no-hitter. He's been better at avoiding liners lately, too, and as a result, only Ricky Romero has a lower line drive rate this season. It remains to be seen if Santana can sustain these improvements, but the change is too drastic to ignore. He could be a legitimate No. 2 SP going into next season.
Justin Masterson, Cleveland: Masterson was on some sleeper lists this past spring, but even those who saw improvement on the way probably didn't foresee a nearly-two-run drop in his ERA. Of all of the pitchers on this "exceeding expectations" list, Masterson is the only one who has a higher- than-average BABIP, which has mostly to do with the low number of popups he induces. Masterson doesn't allow balls to go airborne much, period, and that's been a plus for him overall. He has allowed six homers all year, and only Charlie Morton (five) has allowed fewer among qualifying starters. While Masterson is good at keeping the ball down, he's not quite the ground ball machine that Morton is, so some of his gains this season have been too good to be true. xFIP estimates that Masterson's ERA should be 3.54, and that seems like a realistic projection for next year. While that's good, it's won't put him on the fringe of the top 20 starting pitchers, which is where he is now.
Josh Tomlin, Cleveland: Tomlin (elbow) may be done for the season, but at least for now, he still ranks as one of the top 40 starting pitchers in both Head-to-Head and Rotisserie formats. He is one of only three pitchers (Kyle Lohse and Dillon Gee being the others) to land in or next to both of the "likely lucky" boxes, so there are reasons to question his viability for standard mixed leagues next season. Tomlin pitches to contact and, as he has done throughout his professional career, continues to serve up homers galore, so he needs to be proficient at preventing baserunners to have success. Owners can count on Tomlin to hand out few walks, but can they look to him to limit base hits? Tomlin's Fantasy relevance is owed largely to a .574 BABIP on line drives (the major league norm is around .720). No starting pitcher has maintained a rate below .600 in back-to-back seasons over the last four years. The odds of Tomlin repeating his success don't look good.
What went wrong for these pitchers?
Ubaldo Jimenez, Cleveland: Jimenez was actually featured in this column last season - - as one of the pitchers having a surprisingly good season. A year ago, I wrote that Jimenez would experience a dropoff unless he could jack up his ground ball rate. Not only has Jimenez failed to get more grounders, but he's actually dropped his rate by two percentage points. The modest downturn in ground ball rate only goes so far to explain Jimenez's demise, as he struggles to keep his ERA under 5.00. Unfavorable line drive and popup rates have played their role, but so has a 68 percent strand rate. It would be an upset if Jimenez didn't leave more runners on base next year, and that alone should get his ERA back below 4.00. Just don’t expect the ex-Rockie to improve all the way back to his 2010 levels.
Brandon Morrow, Toronto: After Morrow endured a double whammy of bad luck last year in the form of a .348 BABIP and 68 percent strand rate, he looked like the ultimate sleeper this season. Instead, Morrow gave owners a repeat performance, posting unfavorable BABIP (.317) and strand rates (64 percent) yet again. And this time around, there has been a good reason for those bad stats, as Morrow has allowed line drives at a higher rate than any starter not named Chris Carpenter. Morrow has said that he likes "the nerd stats," because they make him look better, and sure enough, xFIP says that his ERA should be 3.43 rather than 4.79. That's because xFIP is counting on Morrow to improve his line drive rate, but I wouldn't recommend that Fantasy owners do the same. This is not to say that Morrow can't improve, but it's taking a big risk to just assume that he will.
Ryan Dempster, Chicago Cubs: After recovering from a horrible April, it looked like Dempster was back to being his usual reliable self. He has slumped again recently, posting a 5.00 ERA and 1.47 WHIP over his last eight starts, so it's time to call Dempster's 2011 campaign to date into question. Prior to this year, Dempster had performed well since he was converted back into a starter in 2008, even in spite of mediocre walk and homer rates. Dempster's high strikeout rates as a reliever translated back into his starting role, and his consistent ability to avoid line drives further padded his ERA and WHIP. That ability has gone MIA this season, as 20 percent of hit balls have resulted in liners. In the past, Dempster's wildness hadn't hurt him, but he's not fooling as many batters when he's out of the zone this year. While he is not experiencing an A.J. Burnett-like deterioration of his skill set, it's worth noting that Dempster's decline is based on something more than random fluctuations. A comeback is far from certain for the 34-year-old.
Wade Davis, Tampa Bay: As a rookie last year, Davis showed that he could succeed in spite of his vulnerability to the long ball. Though he got burned by 24 homers in just 168 innings, Davis used his flyball tendencies to his advantage, posting a high popup rate and holding opponents to a .096 batting average on flyballs in play. Davis is still getting his share of infield flies, but he is one of only five pitchers with a popup rate of at least 10 percent and an overall BABIP above .290. Over his last six starts, Davis' velocity is back to where it was last season, and his strikeouts are up dramatically. Owners can't be blamed for wanting to see more good production from Davis this season, but he could be a bargain buy in 2012. He is almost certainly due some better luck, but if he sustains his current velocity, he may not even need it.
Trevor Cahill, Oakland: Cahill has been this season's best reminder that young pitchers often take a zigzag route on their path to stardom. The sinkerball pitcher looked like he was on the fast track after a sophomore season in which his strikeout, walk, ground ball and line drive rates all saw major improvement. The upgrade in his grounder rate has stuck, and Cahill has taken his strikeout rate up another notch, but the gains in his walk and liner rates have vanished. The good news for Cahill owners is that much of the damage to his stats has been done in just a handful of starts, as he still sports a respectable 64 percent quality start rate. It's not unusual for a 23-year-old to experience some setbacks, but the overall picture is still encouraging. As Cahill learns to command his pitches more consistently, he should get back on an upward trajectory.
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| xFIP: Also known as Expected Fielding Independent Pitching. It is an estimate of what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based on factors that a pitcher can control, such as strikeouts, walks and flyballs. xFIP is a derivative of FIP, which was developed by Tom Tango. Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James GO/AO -- Ground out-fly out ratio GB/FB -- Ground ball-fly ball ratio Batting Average per Balls in Play (BABIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30% Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks) Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats |
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