By the Numbers: The art of sealing the deal
Closers are notoriously volatile. Blown saves are practically inevitable, and for most ninth-inning relievers, productivity tends vary greatly from year-to-year. Even so, there were several heavily drafted closers who seemed to be solid bets to have a good season. Brian Wilson and Carlos Marmol, for example, seemed like stalwarts coming into this year, but even they have made owners question whether they were worth a relatively high draft pick. Similarly, some of this year's best Fantasy relievers, like Craig Kimbrel and Joel Hanrahan, were little more than late-round afterthoughts on draft day.
With just two weeks left in the season, we can finally take stock of some of this year's more perplexing closers. Even in midseason, most relievers have not compiled enough innings to provide us with a sense of whether their seasons are mere flukes or trustworthy signs of what's to come. Below is our Lucky/Unlucky Tool, but instead of populating it with starting pitchers as we normally do, it displays the BABIP and batted ball rates for all relievers with at least 40 innings pitched this year. As always, pitchers with high BABIPs and favorable line drive and popup rates fall into the "likely unlucky" zones, while those with low BABIPs and unfavorable line drive and popup rates reside in the "likely lucky" zones.
While the tool includes pitchers filling various relief roles, our analysis will focus on closers. Specifically, we will look at five closers who have exceeded expectations this year and five who have fallen short. The pitchers who have performed beyond expectations are coded in red in the graphs below, while those who have disappointed Fantasy owners are coded with blue marks. You can distinguish the closers from the non-closers by the size of their marks; the more saves a reliever has earned, the larger his mark is in the scatterplots.
Why did these closers do so well?
Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta: The biggest doubts about Kimbrel going into this season had to do with his status as the Braves' closer, and not with his ability to succeed at the job. Kimbrel quickly claimed the job full-time, leaving Jonny Venters in a setup role. While he clearly had the strikeout potential to be a good closer, few probably saw his utter dominance coming. Kimbrel leads all relievers in Fantasy points, with second-ranking John Axford lagging 66 points behind. The amazing part of Kimbrel's season is that he has achieved all of his success in spite of a .319 BABIP that nearly placed him in both of the "likely unlucky" boxes. The rookie has improved his control, while frustrating hitters with frequent Ks (14.8 K/9) and infrequent hard contact (14 percent line drive rate, two percent home run per flyball ratio). Kimbrel is already in the discussion for the honors of top closer going into next season, and he could produce even better results with better luck on balls in play.
Joel Hanrahan, Pittsburgh: Hanrahan became much more of a contact pitcher this season, but as the Lucky/Unlucky Tool shows, good luck on balls in play hasn't played a role in his surprisingly good campaign. His .278 BABIP is the lowest of his major league career, and improvement in that area has been critical for Hanrahan, given that he has missed fewer bats this season. He has steadily improved as a ground ball pitcher, which has helped to keep his line drive rate low as well as limit opposing hitters to a single home run over 64 2/3 innings. Hanrahan's average fastball velocity is also at a career high, so owners shouldn't fret about his modest 7.9 K/9 rate. He may give up a few more dingers next season, but Hanrahan is good enough at avoiding hard contact to continue to be a top closer into next year.
Francisco Cordero, Cincinnati: Cordero has been a reliable source of saves for several years running, but it's been solely by virtue of getting opportunities. Owners haven't been able to count on Cordero for help in other categories, as his ERA has typically been in excess of 3.00, and his WHIP usually exceeds 1.30. This season, not only has Cordero notched 32 saves in 37 chances, but he owns a 2.30 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. Unusually sharp command has aided his improvement, but his K/9 rate has continued its sinking trend, dropping to 5.7. With all of that extra contact, Cordero's season would be far worse if not for a .209 BABIP, which is the lowest for any full-time closer. That rate doesn't make sense, given his mediocre line drive and popup rates. Cordero has probably been the single luckiest closer in the game this season, putting him in danger of being highly overrated going into 2012.
Drew Storen, Washington: For someone who made good strides in his ground ball rate, raising it from 41 to 47 percent, it seems like Storen has deserved a better fate than to have allowed eight home runs in 66 1/3 innings. Data from ESPN's HitTracker confirms this suspicion, as five of those homers were short distance jobs that wouldn't have left many major league parks. That doesn't mean that owners should expect improvement from the sophomore hurler next season, though. While he's been unlucky on a few long flies, he's been fortunate on balls that have stayed in play. Despite a slightly elevated line drive rate, Storen 1.06 WHIP has been aided by a .247 BABIP. With fewer home runs, Storen may be able to keep his ERA around 3.00 again next season, but unless he becomes harder to hit, expect his WHIP to jump substantially.
Kyle Farnsworth, Tampa Bay: Farnsworth ranks only 29th among RP-eligible pitchers in Fantasy Points, but he can't be blamed for getting only 29 save opportunities. With just another five saves, Farnsworth would rank among the top 20. That's not too bad for someone who few people thought had a shot to be the Rays' closer coming into this season. Ever since developing a cutter two seasons ago, Farnsworth has done a good job of keeping the ball in the park, and he also continues to sharpen his command. While he's been better than many expected, xFIP projects that his ERA should be 3.27, nearly a full run higher than his actual 2.32 mark. Assuming that Farnsworth's current elbow issues don't become something more serious and that he'll close again next year, he won't necessarily have more value, even if he does see more save opportunities.
What went wrong for these closers?
Brian Wilson, San Francisco: Wilson looked like the closest thing to a safe bet among closers back on draft day, but his 2011 performance has been undistinguished at best. In fairness, Wilson's season has been bookended by injuries, as he started the year with an oblique strain and is currently dealing with elbow inflammation. If you subtract out the early and late weeks of Wilson's season, his stats are only a little off his recent norms. Between April 26 and July 28, Wilson's WHIP was 1.28 (as opposed to 1.49 for the whole season) and his ERA was just 1.49. Whether his recent and early-season woes were injury-related, bad BABIP luck, or both, the bulk of Wilson's time on the mound this year has been productive. As long as he is healthy, he should return to being a top option again next year.
Neftali Feliz, Texas: Something was not right with Feliz for the first two months of the season, as he had walked five more batters than he struck out and he wasn't getting many popups either. Thanks to some BABIP magic (specifically, a .185 rate through May 31), Feliz got away with his slump, posting a 1.45 ERA with 10 saves through the end of May. Since then, though, the 23-year- old has looked more like the rookie sensation that he was last year. He's back to throwing strikes and getting loads of pop flies. Whatever good luck Feliz benefitted from early in the year has been erased by a poor strand rate in recent months. It's been a strange season for the Rangers' closer, but in the end, his 2.77 ERA and 1.16 WHIP provide a good indication of what to expect going forward, provided he doesn't get moved into the rotation.
Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs: Marmol set the record for most strikeouts per nine innings last season with 16.0, so owners had to figure he would be hard pressed to match that rate this year. Sure enough, Marmol's K/9 rate is "only" 11.8, but is that enough to explain why his ERA has shot up by nearly a run and a half? Increased contact has played a role, but a mediocre 70 percent strand rate -- down from 77 percent last year -- also has something do with it. Unlike with Feliz, Marmol has not posted favorable line drive or popup rates, so his struggles with stranding runners look more like a result of his own doing rather than a by-product of bad luck. Even with a high BABIP, batters are hitting just .205 against Marmol, but with all of the walks that he issues, that batting average is actually too high. Marmol needs to find some way to compensate for his extreme wildness, and if it's not through a record-breaking strikeout pace or good luck on balls in play, he'll be nothing more than a low-end closer for standard mixed league formats.
Francisco Rodriguez, Milwaukee: K-Rod's days as a closer came to an end the day he got traded to the Brewers back in July, so it's not fair to judge him based on his 28th-place ranking among RP-eligible pitchers. However, it may be fair to hold Rodriguez accountable for his career-worst 1.34 WHIP, which would be hurting Fantasy owners if they were still starting him for saves. Then again, Rodriguez's peripherals suggest that his performance should be his best in years. He is still striking out more than a batter per inning, not succumbing to the wildness that used to plague him, and getting ground balls at a career-high rate. If Rodriguez's move to a setup role hasn't made him a forgotten relief option in Fantasy, his apparently unlucky .333 BABIP could dampen his value going into 2012. If some team gives him the chance to close again, he could return to being an elite relief option in short order.
Frank Francisco, Toronto: Francisco has been in and out as the Jays' closer this season, but he looks like he has the role for good down the stretch, thanks to his strong second half. The disparity between Francisco's first half (5.92 ERA, 1.85 WHIP) and second half (1.61 ERA, 0.90 WHIP) stats suggests that he may have been impacted early on by the pectoral and bicep injuries that delayed the start of his season. Not only has Francisco's control improved over the second half, but has just been far less hittable. For the season as a whole, Francisco has the highest line drive rate (26 percent) of any reliever with at least 40 innings pitched, but he has cut that rate to 14 percent for the second half, according to Baseball-Reference.com. Owners may look at Francisco's full season stats next spring and dismiss him as a relief option in Fantasy, but based on his last two months, he looks like a major sleeper going into 2012.
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| xFIP: Also known as Expected Fielding Independent Pitching. It is an estimate of what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based on factors that a pitcher can control, such as strikeouts, walks and flyballs. xFIP is a derivative of FIP, which was developed by Tom Tango. Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James GO/AO -- Ground out-fly out ratio GB/FB -- Ground ball-fly ball ratio Batting Average per Balls in Play (BABIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30% Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks) Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats |
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