Sep. 27, 2011

Sliders: The future looks bright ... for some

By Scott White | Fantasy Writer
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If you thought we were done sliding, think again.

The 2011 season is nearing its completion, but it can't end without a look ahead to 2012. It can't end without me stopping to predict the future.

Haven't I been doing that all along? Yeah, to a degree. But typically, my predictions are in response to what's already happening. Typically, I'm looking at recent trends and deciding whether or not they'll continue.

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This week, I'm not responding to anything. I'm speculating from start to finish, predicting not only how the trends will end but how they'll begin as well. Basically, it's a sneak peak at one of next year's Sliders columns -- a list of the players whose values I think will change the most over the course of 2012.

Confused yet? So am I. Let's just call it an early sleepers and busts column and get on with it already.

Sliders ... These players will gain or lose significant value over the course of the 2012 season. Or so I think.

Eric Hosmer, 1B, Royals

Breakouts don't always happen at the beginning of a season. Sometimes, a player needs a few weeks of at-bats to make the adjustments that allow him to maximize his talents.

And sometimes, that happens in his very first season.

Such is the case for Hosmer, who after some early ups and downs has hit .382 (50 for 131) with nine homers and 1.040 OPS in his last 31 games. Those numbers may seem unsustainable to you, but to me, they seem reasonable for the player who entered the season as the best pure hitter in the minors. I mean, he hit .439 in nearly 100 at-bats at Triple-A before getting the call. Unsustainable indeed.

I'm not saying Hosmer is a slam dunk to win the batting title next year, but he's already capable of hitting over .300 with power. And considering he's doing it at age 21, I'm terrified of what the future holds ... but, you know, terrified in a way that I openly invite because it brings me satisfaction.

Basically, Hosmer is a horror movie waiting to happen. If you want to be one of the fortunate souls who stick around until the end, you'd be wise to target him in the middle rounds even if you took a stud first baseman early. Chances are you won't know which is the better option by season's end.

Kevin Youkilis, 1B/3B, Red Sox

Youkilis became a regular part of the Red Sox lineup in 2006, which is the same year that Prince Fielder, Hanley Ramirez, Adrian Gonzalez, Curtis Granderson and Ryan Zimmerman broke through as everyday players.

The difference? Youkilis was 27 years old at the time.

Naturally, he's set to turn 33 in 2012, which is hardly ancient by baseball standards but is old enough that you have to expect more and more to go wrong for him. And it already is.

Youkilis hasn't played since Sept. 15 because of a sports hernia and bursitis in his hip. He also missed time for a tight back in August, a strained hamstring in July, a sprained ankle in June, a sore hand in May and a contused shin in April. It's like he joined a bruise-of-the-month club.

In all, he has played in 120 games this season and is averaging 111 over the last two. That's an especially discouraging development for a guy who has never played in more than 147 games in a season. Youkilis was already injury prone. As he enters his mid-30s and his body begins to betray him, he'll only spend more and more time off the field.

And now you don't even have the assurance of elite numbers when he's on it. Assuming he doesn't return in 2011, he'll finish with career lows in batting average and on-base percentage, his OPS dropping by nearly 150 points from one year to the next. Hey, those injuries add up.

Youkilis move to third base was supposed to breathe new life into him as a Fantasy option and may be the reason he still goes off the board early in 2012, given the lack of middle-round third baseman available. But of all the disappointments at the position this season, he's the one -- other than Alex Rodriguez, maybe -- who seems the least likely to bounce back.

Brandon Beachy, SP, Braves

Since 1900, only 13 pitchers have put together a season in which they averaged more than 10.0 strikeouts per nine innings and fewer than 3.0 walks per nine over a minimum of 25 starts. Of those 13, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, Curt Schilling and Sandy Koufax have each done it multiple times. The remaining nine have each done it once.

Roy Halladay isn't among them. Neither is Felix Hernandez. Nor Clayton Kershaw. Not even Roger Clemens had a season good enough to rank among that illustrious group.

But Beachy has.

Not only has he meet those numbers this year, but he's done it as a rookie. And yet he doesn't seem to be getting any attention for it, from either Fantasy owners or the baseball world as a whole. You don't hear him mentioned as a top keeper option. You don't hear him mentioned as a Rookie of the Year candidate. You don't hear anything that would suggest he's as good as he is.

Why not? Perhaps because he was always an afterthought in the Braves minor-league system, taking a back seat to the other high-end arms rising through the ranks.

So far, though, Beachy has shown that his sudden emergence in the minors last year, when he posted a 1.73 ERA and struck out 148 batters in 119 1/3 innings between Double- and Triple-A, wasn't a fluke.

It's not as much the strikeout rate that makes him exceptional as the ability to control the strike zone at such a young age. Really, the only thing holding him back is a lack of endurance. Only three times this season did he last beyond six innings. Once he learns to extend himself, he's an ace.

Chances are most Fantasy owners won't look upon him so favorably entering next season. If you can get him outside of the top 40 starting pitchers, it's a steal.

Hunter Pence, OF, Phillies

Of all the hitters in an aging Phillies lineup, the 28-year-old Pence seems like the most likely candidate to improve -- or at least stay the same. But I'm not buying his 2011 as a breakthrough season. I'm not sure the numbers support it.

Granted, he was a pretty good player even before this season. His .282 batting average and 25 homers in both 2009 and 2010 were good enough to make him a starter in just about all Fantasy formats, and those numbers are plenty attainable for him in 2012.

But his .313 batting average -- the mark that has set him apart as a top Fantasy outfielder -- probably isn't.

Pence has always been a player who strikes out more than twice as often as he walks -- a free-swinger, in other words. As a free-swinger, he'd have stretches where he'd look like a .300 hitter, spraying balls all over the field and racking up multi-hit games.

But he'd also have stretches where he'd chase pitches out of the zone, bringing his batting average back down to size.

Why not this year? My guess is luck. His BABIP is currently .363. His previous high for a full season was .308. I'm not saying the move to Philadelphia hasn't at all made a difference, but he was unreasonably hot even before the trade and was playing in an equally favorable hitter's park.

Pence's 2011 has been the hot streak that never ends. My guess is it will at some point in 2012, so if you target him as more than your third outfielder, prepare to be disappointed.

Matt Wieters, C, Orioles

Fantasy owners have come to expect a certain level of production from Wieters. Is he the elite player they thought he'd be when Baseball America named him the No. 1 overall prospect entering 2009? No. Is he good enough to start for them in Fantasy? Yes -- and in a year like 2011, when Joe Mauer is banged up and Victor Martinez is no longer catching regularly, he's good enough to make the All-Star team.

Because Fantasy owners have already made a final determination on him, most probably haven't noticed his transformation over the last six weeks. Since Aug. 19 -- a period of 30 games -- Wieters is batting .294 (32 for 109) with nine homers and a .999 OPS. He also has nearly as many walks (15) as strikeouts (16) during that stretch.

If those numbers look familiar to you, they should. In 578 minor-league at-bats, Wieters produced a 1.014 OPS, collecting nearly as many walks (102) as strikeouts (106).

It's happening. Just when Fantasy owners thought they had him figured out, the 25-year-old is beginning to meet his offensive potential, which, given his pedigree, is as high as your imagination will allow you to take it. Honestly, his numbers during that six-week stretch might not be so far-fetched.

But most Fantasy owners won't judge him on those numbers. They'll judge him on his overall numbers, which, other than his career high in homers, don't hint of any real breakthrough.

You'll know better, though, and if Wieters is once again one of the last of the top 10 catchers drafted in 2012, he'll be the one to target.

Madison Bumgarner, SP, Giants

For some Fantasy owners, Bumgarner's poor April in which he went 0-4 with a 6.17 ERA was all they needed to see. It's not that they cut him or dismissed him as a relevant Fantasy option, but those five starts were enough to convince them that this year wouldn't be the year.

Oh really?

Since then, Bumgarner has a 12-9 record with a 2.94 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 8.6 strikeouts per nine innings. And it's not like he achieved those numbers with a bunch of early exits, coddled by a manager who didn't trust him to pitch more than six innings at a time. At age 22, Bumgarner already knows how to extend himself, pitching seven innings or more in 15 of his 32 starts and eight innings or more in five of them.

He was the 10th overall pick in the 2007 draft, a top prospect every year in the minors, and a postseason hero as a rookie in 2010. He strikes out almost a batter per inning and has a walk rate on par with Chris Carpenter. From the beginning of May, he was the 17th-best starting pitcher in Head-to-Head leagues, outscoring Felix Hernandez, Tim Lincecum and David Price, among others. He has all the makings of a Fantasy ace.

Yet because he finished with a sub-.500 record, because he seemingly burned so many people right out of the gate, Fantasy owners never treated Bumgarner as such, starting him in less than 80 percent of leagues every week of the season. Shoot, Ryan Vogelsong got more love than that.

The lack of enthusiasm is completely incongruous with Bumgarner's ability. It's not even about his upside; it's about what he has already become. He's well worth drafting as a top-30 starting pitcher, and a top-12 finish, with a little more run support, isn't out of the question.

Mark Trumbo, 1B/OF, Angels

Carlos Zambrano, Homer Bailey and Daniel Hudson.

Each has yet to serve up a home run to Trumbo, which is perhaps a worthy distinction in its own right. But of greater note is what they've accomplished in the batter's box. Zambrano's on-base percentage this season is .348, Bailey's is .316, and Hudson's is .303. Meanwhile, Trumbo's is .294. If you're keeping score at home, he's the one actually paid to hit.

Nobody doubts Trumbo's ability to homer. He's pushing 30 as a rookie after hitting 36 at Triple-A Salt Lake last year. The problem is he hasn't shown the ability to do anything else. He has struck out 100 more times than he has walked, demonstrating the same swing-at-anything approach that has doomed players like Jeff Francoeur and Ryan Ludwick in the past.

With such an approach, a .254 batting average like he has now is about the best he can hope to achieve, and for it to happen, almost everything has to go right. What if he comes out of the gate cold next year, with Kendry Morales back from injury and Mike Trout ready to claim everyday at-bats? Will the Angels remain committed to a player who doesn't even reach base 30 percent of the time. Should they?

Trumbo's home run total alone will get him drafted in the middle rounds next year, but the possibility of a collapse is too high for me to make that kind of investment in him.

Logan Morrison, OF, Marlins

If you think of Morrison's 2011 season as a sandwich, the bread is encouraging.

Unfortunately, the meat is a giant slab straight out of The Flintstones.

Something went wrong for Morrison during that 63-game stretch from June 1 to Aug. 13 in which he hit .213 with a .693 OPS. Maybe his late April foot sprain got him into some bad habits. Maybe he was trying too hard to hit home runs. Whatever the reason, he was no longer the patient hitter he had been throughout his professional career, walking just 21 times in 240 at-bats. He wasn't bringing anything to the table, and his Fantasy value plummeted.

But after a brief demotion to the minors in August -- whether for slumping or for running his mouth -- he appears to be back in form, producing a .384 on-base percentage and .900 OPS in September. Those are the numbers that made him such a hot commodity in April, when he looked like the second coming of Lance Berkman. The increased power is great, but the patient approach is what sets him apart from the glut of 20-homer outfielders in Fantasy.

If he can combine the two over a full season instead of just April and September, he'll emerge as one of the top OPS men in the game and a clear-cut Fantasy stud. Really, only his health and his Twitter account stand in his way.

Morrison's mid-summer drought did enough damage to his percentages that he'll likely slip to the middle-to-late rounds again on Draft Day. Don't miss what could be your last chance to get him at a discount.

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