By the Numbers: Skill changers worth watching
For the most part, we get a good sense of what type of a hitter someone is from their first season or two in the majors, if not from their minor league career. For example, Mike Stanton's power hasn't exactly come out of nowhere, Vladimir Guerrero has been a superb contact hitter since his rookie days, and Kevin Youkilis was the Greek God of Walks before he even set foot on a major league diamond.
Sometimes, though, players aren't who we thought they were. They evolve into a different sort of offensive weapon, developing new skills that weren't a part of their initial profile.
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Featured here are four players who had all spent sizeable parts of two or more major league seasons coming into the 2011 campaign, but each did things this past season that were unexpected. Each has also given us signs that indicate that the change could be long-lasting. In addition to interpreting those signals, we will see what they could mean for their Fantasy value in 2012.
In selecting this small pool of hitters, I have identified four particular skill areas and chosen a player who has exhibited some of the greatest improvement in each area. The skill areas correspond with the four basic ways that a hitter can improve offensively. He can put the ball in play more often, hit it out of the park with greater frequency, get more base hits when it stays in the park, or work the count more to get free passes.
These four hitters may not be the biggest or most exciting names in the draft room, but each appears to have changed in a way that should make us reconsider his draft value this spring. Also, I have included the names of a few additional players who have recently changed their skill profile, and each bears watching this season to see if the trend continues.
Cameron Maybin, OF, Padres (improved contact skills): Coming into 2011, we knew that Maybin had the potential to be a speed-power threat, and with 40 steals, he certainly delivered on the speed part. He may have a difficult time upgrading some of his doubles and triples into homers playing home games at PETCO Park, but Maybin improved an aspect of his game that he could control. After striking out in 29 and 32 percent of his at-bats over the last two seasons with the Marlins, respectively, Maybin cut his K-rate down to 24 percent last season. It's probably no coincidence that Maybin was a much more aggressive hitter, reducing his pitches per plate appearance and, according to Fangraphs.com, setting a career high in percentage of pitches swung at. Though Maybin swung and missed more often, he also made contact more frequently, and fewer Ks were the net result.
The increased contact helped Maybin to raise his batting average from .234 to .264, but he's still not exactly a batting title contender. What makes the improvement exciting is that Maybin still has room to improve other skills. As a minor leaguer, he was a better line drive hitter than he has shown in the majors, and he also boasted double-digit walk rates. The former could further drive his batting average upward, while the latter will also add to his on-base percentage. As much improvement as Maybin showed last year, progress in either or both of these areas could make Maybin a solid middle-round option in standard mixed Head-to-Head leagues as well as Rotisserie leagues.
Others with improved contact skills: David Ortiz, DH, Red Sox; Justin Upton, OF, Diamondbacks; Will Venable, OF, Padres
Declining contact skills: Josh Willingham, OF, Twins; Adam Dunn, DH, White Sox; Geovany Soto, C, Cubs
Howard Kendrick, 2B, Angels (improved power skills): There is a strong correlation between the length of a batter's plate appearance and the frequency with which his flyballs become homers, and that relationship can be seen in Kendrick's recent stats. Two seasons ago, Kendrick produced a disappointing 10 home runs in 616 at-bats, as he took on a more aggressive approach at the plate. Last year, he set a career high with 3.97 pitches per plate appearance, and waiting for his pitch paid off. Kendrick's 15 percent home run per flyball rate was also a career high, which enabled him to smash 18 dingers in just 537 at-bats, even though his flyball rate stayed steady at 28 percent.
There is nothing in Kendrick's history to suggest that he will start hitting more flyballs, as he has always been mostly a ground ball hitter. However, he showed last season -- and to a lesser extent in 2009 -- that he can generate home run power when he takes a more patient approach. The good news is that, aside from 2010, Kendrick has steadily become a more patient hitter. Maybe there's not much room for Kendrick to increase his power, but with his power-starved 2010 campaign looking like an aberration, it is safe to expect him to at least maintain the home run clout that he showed us last year. Kendrick was a top-eight second baseman in both Rotisserie and Head-to-Head formats last season, and while some owners might expect a regression, there is good reason to expect Kendrick to be in that same neighborhood again this season.
Others with improved power skills: Logan Morrison, OF, Marlins; Asdrubal Cabrera, SS, Indians; J.J. Hardy, SS, Orioles
Declining power skills: Adam Dunn, DH, White Sox; Aaron Hill, 2B, Diamondbacks; Edwin Encarnacion, 3B, Blue Jays
Travis Hafner, DH, Indians (improved hitting on balls in play): While a player's power and contact skills tend to correlate highly from one year to the next, the same cannot be said of a player's ability to get base hits on balls in play. While there is generally little relationship between a player's batting average on balls in play (BABIP) from one year to the next, there are things that a hitter can control that can improve this correlation. Specifically, a player can hit more line drives or avoid pop-ups; either trend is likely to increase his BABIP. Over the last two seasons, Hafner has been one of the majors' best hitters on in-the-park flyballs, with a .221 flyball BABIP that was the third-highest among players with at least 200 flyballs over that span.
The roots of Hafner's improvements lie in his efforts to rework his approach after dealing with shoulder injuries. In a recent phone interview, Hafner said that he had learned to compensate for his injured shoulder by "looking to put the ball in play earlier in the count." Rather than trying to hit the ball as far as possible, Hafner now simply tries to avoid grounders by hitting flyballs with some backspin. While Hafner's plate appearances aren't any shorter than they used to be, he is getting more mileage out of his flyballs in play, popping out at a 4.7 percent rate that is far below the major league norm just above seven percent.
Though Hafner's power skills aren't what they once were, his ground ball rate has stayed steady, which has enabled him to hit around .280 with doubles power. Hafner can still draw walks as well, so he continues to get on-base at a good clip. Because of persistent injuries, Hafner won't be in the same class as other top DH/utility options like David Ortiz and Billy Butler. However, he can at least maintain the level he has set over the last two years, making him a late-round option worth exploring.
Others with improved hitting on balls in play: Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Red Sox; Mike Napoli, C, Rangers; Michael Bourn, OF, Braves
Declining hitting on balls in play: Dan Uggla, 2B, Braves; Ian Kinsler, 2B, Rangers; Casey McGehee, 3B, Pirates
Ryan Sweeney, OF, Red Sox (improved batting eye): Sweeney's inclusion in the recent Andrew Bailey trade drew little attention, and there's little reason to wonder why. He spent the 2011 season as a bench player, even though Oakland's outfield lacked star power, but in his first three years with the A's, Sweeney hadn't shown that he could do much besides hit an empty .290.
However, Sweeney did play just enough last year to continue a trend that bears noticing. In each of the previous two seasons, Sweeney had been gradually increasing his pitches per plate appearance, and in 299 plate appearances in 2011, his rate shot through the roof, increasing from 3.96 to 4.34. As a result, he registered the first double-digit walk rate (11 percent) of his major league career, as well as his highest walk-to-strikeout ratio as an Athletic.
Granted, Sweeney still does not hit home runs or steal bases, so this may seem like a trivial development. Had Sweeney remained in Oakland, perhaps that would be the case, but his move to Boston holds some interesting possibilities. Fenway Park is the majors' best doubles-hitting stadium, and the line-drive hitting Sweeney could thrive there. He will probably still be a single-digit home run producer, but even in Oakland, Sweeney had shown that he can be a prolific doubles hitter. Not only does Sweeney stand to get more extra-base hits in Boston, but he will likely drive in and score more runs and boast a higher batting average and on-base percentage as well. As long as he can hold onto a starting role, Sweeney could get just enough of a boost to give him some relevance in deeper mixed leagues.
Others with improved batting eye: John Buck, C, Marlins; Alberto Callaspo, 3B, Angels; Jose Tabata, OF, Pirates
Declining batting eye: Albert Pujols, 1B, Angels; Scott Rolen, 3B, Reds; Raul Ibanez, OF, Free agent
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| xFIP: Also known as Expected Fielding Independent Pitching. It is an estimate of what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based on factors that a pitcher can control, such as strikeouts, walks and flyballs. xFIP is a derivative of FIP, which was developed by Tom Tango. Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James GO/AO -- Ground out-fly out ratio GB/FB -- Ground ball-fly ball ratio Batting Average per Balls in Play (BABIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30% Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks) Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats |
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