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2012 Fantasy outlooks: New York Mets

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The Sandy Alderson regime officially closed the book on the Omar Minaya era with the deal that sent Carlos Beltran to the Giants for prospect Zack Wheeler last July, opting to cut bait rather than fish with the roster it had inherited.

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When homegrown mainstay Jose Reyes then departed via free agency this offseason, the team's next step became all too clear: Let the long and painful rebuilding process begin.

Fortunately for Fantasy owners, a bare cupboard means new opportunity for previous unknowns -- in other words, sleepers galore. Unfortunately for Fantasy owners, the Mets are still wading through so many bad contracts that the new blood might have to wait.

And so, we face another year of wondering whether 33-year-old Jason Bay will ever regain his All-Star form (fat chance) and hoping that 33-year-old Johan Santana can recapture his ace stuff in his return from 2010 shoulder surgery (don't hold your breath).

But if nothing else, Fantasy owners can count on continued steps forward for the up-and-comers already in place. Ike Davis, Lucas Duda and Daniel Murphy have each toyed with Fantasy greatness and should benefit from the team's decision to move in and lower the fences at the previously oversized Citi Field. So should David Wright -- the team's lone holdover from its former days of glory. In theory, everyone should, though Ruben Tejada and Josh Thole probably lack the wallop to take advantage.

The pitching staff obviously doesn't benefit, but it's not such a highlight anyway. A return to form for Santana would obviously change that, but with shoulder injuries, you have to assume the worst. For what they lack in upside, R.A. Dickey and Jonathon Niese are at least competent, but otherwise, Fantasy owners have little choice but to count down the days until prospects Wheeler, Matt Harvey, Jeurys Familia and Jenrry Mejia arrive.

Breakout ... Ike Davis, 1B

Everything was going as planned for Davis in 2011. He followed up an encouraging rookie season with a killer April, hitting .337 with five homers and a 1.014 OPS to close in on elite status at the deepest position in Fantasy. But the breakout was never complete because his season lasted only two more weeks. On May 10, he suffered the slowest-healing ankle sprain in the history of modern medicine, missing the rest of the season because of it. That's both good news and bad news in Fantasy. On the one hand, it gives you another opportunity to draft the 24-year-old at a discounted rate, but on the other hand, it makes you leery of drafting him at all. But remember: His performance isn't in question, just his availability. He already delivered on his promise and now, a year closer to his prime and with a reduced right-field fence, he could do even more. If Davis is as healthy as he claims he is, you won't regret drafting him.

Bust ... David Wright, 3B

Wright still has the reputation of a five-category stud even though he has fallen short of those numbers twice in the last three seasons. Last year, his issue was a stress fracture in his lower back, but even when he returned, he hit only .272 with a .789 OPS in 243 at-bats. Over the last three seasons, he has a .284 batting average and .828 OPS, which are solid numbers but less than elite even for a third baseman. True, his struggles began the same year the Mets moved to spacious Citi Field, but that doesn't explain why his numbers have lagged on the road during that time. Thus, you can't assume the team's decision to move in the fences this year will be Wright's miracle cure. It'll help, but it won't eliminate the injuries, the perpetually rising strikeout rate and the curious home-road splits. With high-upside third basemen like Brett Lawrie and Emilio Bonifacio available later in the draft, you're better off passing on Wright in the second round.

Sleeper ... Lucas Duda, OF

Though the Mets' decision to move in the fences at Citi Field this season helps, Duda's success in the majors late last year should have made him a Fantasy sleeper already. But for some reason, a certain percentage of the Fantasy-playing population tunes out around the All-Star break, making any breakouts that happen beyond that point somehow less valid. Fortunately for us more attentive types, that means players like Duda get overlooked. From July 15 (about the time he took over for a departed Carlos Beltran) to the end of the season, Duda hit .322 with 10 homers and a .957 OPS -- numbers that jive with his minor-league track record. And that was at old Citi Field, complete with its big gaps, tall fences and ability to crush David Wright's spirit. Granted, Duda is no guarantee to continue those numbers over a full season, but if you don't see the potential for him to outperform the late-round pick you'd use to get him, don't ever get into real estate.

2012 New York Mets Fantasy Outlook
Projected Lineup Pos. Projected Rotation
1 Andres Torres CF 1 Johan Santana LH
2 Daniel Murphy 2B 2 R.A. Dickey RH
3 David Wright 3B 3 Jonathon Niese LH
4 Ike Davis 1B 4 Mike Pelfrey RH
5 Lucas Duda RF 5 Dillon Gee RH
6 Jason Bay LF Alt Chris Schwinden RH
7 Josh Thole C
Bullpen Breakdown
8 Ruben Tejada SS CL Frank Francisco RH
Top bench options SU Jon Rauch RH
R Scott Hairston OF RP Ramon Ramirez RH
R Justin Turner IF RP Bobby Parnell RH
R Adam Loewen OF RP Tim Byrdak LH
Rookies/Prospects Age Pos. 2011 high Destination
1 Zack Wheeler 21 SP Class A Double-A
The system's top prospect after coming over from the Giants in the Carlos Beltran deal, Wheeler is likely still a year away, but he's the Mets' best hope at a true ace.
2 Matt Harvey 23 SP Double-A Triple-A
Harvey still needs to work on his secondary pitches, but his upside is similar to Wheeler's. The problem is, at age 23, he doesn't have as much time to meet it.
3 Jeurys Familia 22 SP Double-A Triple-A
Familia is further along than Wheeler and Harvey, but his control problems make him less of a sure thing. The hard-thrower could make an impact this year, though.
4 Kirk Nieuwenhuis 24 OF Triple-A Triple-A
Some would prefer to see Nieuwenhuis starting over Torres, so perhaps a midseason switch is inevitable. The David Murphy clone could factor in deeper leagues.
5 Wilmer Flores 20 SS Class A Class A
The former elite prospect's star is fading after another down year. He's still a good contact hitter, but he needs to show power soon to justify his keeper slot.
Best of the rest: Chris Schwinden, SP; Reese Havens, 2B; Brandon Nimmo, OF; Cesar Puello, OF; Josh Satin, 1B; Josh Stinson, RP; Jordany Valdespin, 2B; Cory Vaughn, OF; Aderlin Rodriguez, 3B; Zach Lutz, 3B; Armando Rodriguez, SP; Sean Ratliff, OF; Matt den Dekker, OF; Darrell Ceciliani, OF; and Mike Nickeas, C.

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Player News
Cardinals' Brandon Moss slugs go-ahead homer in win Thursday
by Jason Lempert | Staff Writer
(1:17 am ET) Cardinals left fielder Brandon Moss had one hit on Thursday against the Diamondbacks. But it was a big one, as he snapped a 3-3 tie with a two-run home run in the fifth inning. The go-ahead homer was all the Cardinals would need, as they hung on for the 5-3 victory.

The home run was Moss' 16th of the year, and his first since coming to the Cardinals in a trade at the July 31 deadline. Moss is batting .200 (10 for 50) in his tenure with St. Louis so far.


Rangers' Jurickson Profar goes 1 for 4 in rehab debut Thursday
by Jason Lempert | Staff Writer
(1:13 am ET) Rangers infielder Jurickson Profar began his minor-league rehab assignment with Class A Hickory on Thursday. Serving as the designated hitter, Profar went 1 for 4 before being lifted for a pinch runner in the seventh inning.

Profar is recovering from off-season shoulder surgery, and it is not yet known if he will be able to return to the Rangers in 2015.


Cardinals RP Trevor Rosenthal survives shaky outing for 41st save
by Jason Lempert | Staff Writer
(1:11 am ET) Cardinals closer Trevor Rosenthal made this dicey, but he settled down to preserve the 5-3 win over the Diamondbacks on Thursday. Rosenthal allowed the tying run to reach base with one out. But he was able to strike out the final two batters of the ninth, en route to his 41st save of the season.

Rosenthal has successfully converted each of his last 15 save opportunities. His ERA is down to 1.52 on the season. The 41 saves ties him for the most in the Major Leagues this season.


Diamondbacks' Rubby De La Rosa scuffles in start Thursday
by Jason Lempert | Staff Writer
(1:07 am ET) Diamondbacks starter Rubby De La Rosa was not very effective in his outing against the Cardinals on Thursday. The young right-hander allowed five runs on five hits over five innings. He walked four and struck out four in the 5-3 loss.

De La Rosa (11-6, 4.46 ERA) fell into an early hole in this one. He allowed a solo home run to Tony Cruz in the first inning, and then watched two more runs score on him in the second.

The D-Backs were able to tie the game in the bottom of the second, and De La Rosa put up goose eggs over the next two frames. But he served up a two-run home run to Brandon Moss in the fifth inning, and that would be the final blow for either side.

De La Rosa had been pitching well in August, as Thursday was the first time in five starts that he allowed more than three runs. He had won each of his last five decisions prior to Thursday's outing.


Cardinals SP Carlos Martinez grinds out win on Thursday
by Jason Lempert | Staff Writer
(1:06 am ET) Cardinals pitcher Carlos Martinez posted a quality start in his outing against the Diamondbacks on Thursday. The young right-hander allowed three runs on four hits over six innings. he walked two and struck out six, throwing 60 of his 103 pitches for strikes.

All three runs Martinez allowed came in the third inning, which tied the game. But the Cardinals were able to bring in two in the fifth, paving the way for Martinez to pick up the 5-3 victory.

Martinez (13-6, 2.91 ERA) posted quality outings in three of his five August starts. With Thursday's victory, he snapped a personal two-game losing streak.


Diamondbacks' Daniel Hudson leaves game with finger injury
by Jason Lempert | Staff Writer
(12:52 am ET) Diamondbacks pitcher Daniel Hudson was lifted from Thursday's game against the Cardinals due to a cut on his finger. Hudson suffered the injury while fielding a comebacker in the top of the ninth inning. 

Hudson went 1 1/3 innings, allowing a hit and striking out a batter with no runs allowed. 


Mets' Daniel Murphy stays hot, plates go-ahead runs in victory
by Jason Lempert | Staff Writer
(12:10 am ET) Mets first baseman Daniel Murphy came through with the biggest hit of the night on Thursday. Murphy, who went 3 for 6 with a run scored and two RBI, snapped a 5-5 tie by smoking a two-run double in the 13th inning. The Mets would go on to beat the Phillies 9-5.

Murphy also made a dazzling play in the field, as he led the charge to the four-game sweep over the Phillies. He has somewhat quietly been on a bit of a tear lately, hitting .366 (15 for 41) with two home runs and 13 RBI over his last nine games.


Mets' Kelly Johnson belts game-tying home run on Thursday
by Jason Lempert | Staff Writer
(12:07 am ET) Mets second baseman Kelly Johnson had one hit in six at-bats on Thursday against the Phillies, but it was a key hit. Johnson launched a game-tying, solo home run in the fifth inning, knotting the score up at 5-5. The Mets would go on to win the game 9-5 in 13 innings.

The home run was Johnson's third since coming over in a trade at the end of July. He has been mired in a bit of a slump recently, as he was 6 for his last 24 coming into play on Thursday.


Yoenis Cespedes keeps on rolling for Mets
by Jason Lempert | Staff Writer
(12:04 am ET) Mets outfielder Yoenis Cespedes stayed red-hot at the plate on Thursday, as he connected on a two-run home run in the 9-5 win over the Phillies. Cespedes' home run came in the fifth inning, as the Mets stormed back to erase a five-run deficit.

The home run was Cespdes' only hit of the night, but it was his eighth longball since coming to the Mets at the July 31 trade deadline. Perhaps even more impressively, over his last eight games, Cespedes is batting .350 with six home runs and 15 RBI. He has certainly been a catalyst for the Mets' recent upswing.


Mets RP Carlos Torres does it all in victory on Thursday
by Jason Lempert | Staff Writer
(8/27/2015) Right-handed reliever Carlos Torres was one of the heroes of the game for the Mets, as they went on to beat the Phillies 9-5 in 13 innings on Thursday. Torres shined with his arm, his glove, his bat and his speed in this one.

On the mound, Torres tossed 2 1/3 scoreless ball, allowing just one hit. He also made a couple of athletic plays, including a sprint to first base to beat Jeff Francoeur on a deflected ground ball.

At the plate, Torres reached on an infield single and scored the Mets' go-ahead run in the 13th, as he picked up his fifth win of the season. Overall, it was an impressive evening for the right-hander, as the Mets completed the four-game sweep of the Phillies.


 
 
 
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