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2012 Fantasy outlooks: Toronto Blue Jays

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The Blue Jays went 81-81 last season, marking the sixth time in seven seasons that they won at least 80 games. And yet they haven't reached the playoffs in 18 years. Their tale isn't one of futility, though. By acquiring closer Sergio Santos in the offseason, general manager Alex Anthopoulos gave an optimistic assessment of the team's progress: After two years of purging bad contracts and accumulating draft picks, it's ready to take the next step forward.

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And somewhere in its tangled mess of arms and outfielders, it should have the pieces in place to do so. The Blue Jays' ongoing project this season will be to appraise the underachieving ex-prospects -- such as Colby Rasmus and Travis Snider -- and overachieving minor-leaguers -- such as Eric Thames and David Cooper -- to determine which ones are legitimate building blocks for the future.

If nothing else, their middle of the lineup is already intact. Jose Bautista followed up his fairy tale rise to superstar status in 2010 with an even better 2011. Joining him as a cornerstone of the franchise is third baseman Brett Lawrie, who lived out a fairy tale of his own last year by giving his best Mike Schmidt impression once he reached the big leagues. For Fantasy owners, the two should be among the hottest commodities on Draft Day, with Lawrie closing in on the elite class of third basemen and Bautista a possibility for the first overall pick.

The Blue Jays have as much to sort through in the starting rotation, where only Ricky Romero has established himself as a legitimate front-liner. Beyond Brandon Morrow and Henderson Alvarez, the questions abound, but with Kyle Drabek, Deck McGuire and Drew Hutchison waiting in the wings and a whole slew of higher-upside arms in the lower levels of the minors, the Blue Jays have the means to fill whatever holes develop.

The hard part is over. The talent is there. Now, they just have to figure out how to make the most of it.

Breakout ... Brandon Morrow, SP

By the most superficial accounts, Morrow took a step backward last year, his ERA rising from 4.49 to 4.72. But before you dismiss him as a lost cause condemned to perpetual mediocrity, consider all he did right. He lowered his WHIP to 1.29 by improving both his hit rate and, more importantly, his walk rate, which checked in at a palatable 3.5 per nine innings, and yet his strikeout rate was still tops in the AL. Best of all, he continued his steady accumulation of innings, putting him in a position to cross the 200 threshold for the first time this season. So why don't more Fantasy owners care? Apparently, somebody decided that last year was supposed to be Morrow's breakout year, inflating his draft value and setting up the Fantasy-playing world for disappointment. Coming off a 146-inning season and with the same control issues as always, he wasn't ready to make the leap to elite status last year. Now that he is, he's actually more affordable to Fantasy owners.

Bust ... J.P. Arencibia, C

Arencibia was one of five catchers to hit 20-plus homers last year, and he did it as a rookie. But before visions of Mike Piazza start dancing in your heads, keep in mind he was especially old for a rookie, turning 25 before the start of the season. He's 26 now, which means he's already in the thick of his prime, which means what you see with him might be exactly what you get. And it's even worse than it looks. Arencibia hit only .219 in 2011, which is discouraging enough, but when you consider he got worse over the course of the season, hitting .199 over the final four months, you have to wonder if his excessive strikeout rate makes him a sitting duck against major-league pitching. And considering the Blue Jays' top prospect is a catcher (Travis D'Arnaud) nearing major-league age (23), Arencibia might have a shorter leash than you think. He's fine as a second catcher in mixed leagues, but he'll get drafted in most as more.

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Sleeper ... Henderson Alvarez, SP

Alvarez wasn't considered a high-profile prospect at this time last year, so understandably, his 10 starts during a late-season trial weren't enough to put him on most Fantasy owners' radars. But consider just how impressive those 10 starts were. Better yet, consider how impressive his final eight were. He pitched at least six innings in each, posting a 3.06 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. He also issued only six walks during that stretch. Six. In 53 innings. And this isn't some soft-tosser who took the league by surprise simply by throwing strikes, a la Zach Duke in 2005. Alvarez throws in the mid-90s. He has top-of-the-rotation stuff to go along with a good feel for the strike zone and has already tasted success in the heavy-hitting AL East. The 21-year-old won't be a workhorse or anything -- not at this stage of his career -- but for the price of a late-round pick, he's a good bet to outperform his draft position.

2012 Toronto Blue Jays outlook
Projected Lineup Pos. Projected Rotation
1 Yunel Escobar SS 1 Ricky Romero LH
2 Eric Thames LF 2 Brandon Morrow RH
3 Jose Bautista RF 3 Henderson Alvarez RH
4 Brett Lawrie 3B 4 Brett Cecil LH
5 Adam Lind 1B 5 Dustin McGowan RH
6 Edwin Encarnacion DH Alt Kyle Drabek RH
7 Colby Rasmus CF
Bullpen Breakdown
8 J.P. Arencibia C CL Sergio Santos RH
9 Kelly Johnson 2B SU Francisco Cordero RH
Top bench options RP Jason Frasor RH
R Rajai Davis OF RP Darren Oliver LH
R Ben Francisco OF RP Casey Janssen RH
Rookies/Prospects Age Pos. 2011 high Destination
1 Travis D'Arnaud 23 C Double-A Triple-A
Unfortunately, D'Arnaud broke out in the minors the same year that Arencibia broke through to the majors. D'Arnaud is better, but he'll need help to debut in 2012.
2 Anthony Gose 21 OF Double-A Triple-A
Gose's numbers finally began to live up to his unbelievable tools last year. His blazing speed will make him a Fantasy asset even if he never refines his approach.
3 Deck McGuire 22 SP Double-A Double-A
The 2010 first-rounder doesn't profile as a Cy Young winner, but he's about as safe as pitching prospects get. He could arrive midseason, so stay tuned, AL-only owners.
4 Jacob Marisnick 21 OF Class A Class A
Marisnick is still a ways away, but he's looking like an offensive force, hitting for average and power with plenty of speed. He's sort of an under-the-radar keeper.
5 David Cooper 25 1B Majors Double-A
Cooper hit .364 in the minors last year, but his major-league showing wasn't so hot. His lack of power limits his appeal, but he'll be in the DH discussion this year.
Best of the rest: Noah Syndergaard, SP; Justin Nicolino, SP; Drew Hutchison, SP; Aaron Sanchez, SP; Asher Wojciechowski, SP; Adeiny Hechavarria, SS; Joel Carreno, RP; A.J. Jimenez, C; Danny Farquhar, RP; Chad Beck, RP; Chad Jenkins, SP; Moises Sierra, OF; and Michael Crouse, OF.

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Player News
Orioles considering spring training invite for Mark Hendrickson
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(1/29/2015) The Orioles are considering a spring training invite for pitcher Mark Hendrickson , according to MASN.

Hendrickson has been linked to the Orioles for some time now. He threw for the club back in June, and recently had a workout at the team's recent minicamp. The 40-year-old Hendrickson has completely remade his windup. He now throws from a submarine style angle. Hendrickson hasn't pitched in the majors since 2011. 


Angels sign Stewart, Herrmann to minor-league deals
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(1/29/2015) The Angels have signed pitchers Zach Stewart and Frank Herrmann to minor-league deals, according to the Los Angeles Times

Both players will receive an invite to spring training. Stewart, 28, spent last season in the minors. He posted a 4.58 ERA over 110 innings.

The 30-year-old Herrmann spent all of last season in Triple-A. He posted a 6.37 ERA over 29 2/3 innings. 


Report: Joba Chamberlain has turned down multiple offers
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(1/29/2015) Former Tigers reliever Joba Chamberlain has turned down offers from multiple teams, according to FoxSports.com.

The 29-year-old Chamberlain is coming off a year in which he posted a 3.57 ERA over 63 innings with Detroit. He performed much better in the first half of the season, posting a 2.63 ERA over 37 2/3 innings. Chamberlain struggled in the second half, however. He posted a 4.97 ERA over 25 1/3 innings. Chamberlain saw his strikeout rate drop in the second half, while his walk rate creeped up. 

It appears Chamberlain has received attention during the offseason, but has held out to sign with a better club. While he was initially shooting for a two-year deal, Chamberlain may accept a one-year offer with incentives at this point.


Orioles have made an offer to Nolan Reimold
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(1/29/2015) The Orioles have offered a contract to Nolan Reimold, according to the Baltimore Sun.

Team executive Dan Duquette confirmed the team made the offer, but said there are multiple teams interested in Reimold. The 31-year-old spent the first five seasons of his career in Baltimore. He spent last season with the Blue Jays and Diamondbacks, hitting .232 over 69 at-bats. 


Giants designate Chris Dominguez for assignment
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(1/29/2015) The Giants have designated Chris Dominguez for assignment, according to MLB.com.

The 28-year-old Dominguez received 17 at-bats in the majors last season. He spent most of the season in Triple-A, where he hit .274/.307/.460 over 496 at-bats. Dominguez had to be removed from the 40-man roster in order to make room for Ryan Vogelsong.


Brewers, Neal Cotts agree on a one-year deal
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(1/29/2015) The Brewers have reached a one-year deal with reliever Neal Cotts, according to the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. 

Cotts was in Milwaukee on Thursday to take a physical. He passed the team physical, and will earn $3 million next season, according to FoxSports.com. The deal is expected to be announced by the club on Friday. The 34-year-old Cotts posted a 4.32 ERA over 66 2/3 innings last year.


Brewers talking to reliever Neal Cotts
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(1/29/2015) The Brewers are talking to reliever Neal Cotts, according to the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel

Cotts, 34, spent the last two seasons with the Rangers. After an exceptional comeback in 2013, Cotts regressed a bit in 2014, posting a 4.32 ERA. While the two sides have talked, it's unclear if a deal is close. If the Brewers were to reach a deal with Cotts, the team would have to remove a player from the 40-man roster. 


Phillies designate Cesar Jimenez for assignment on Thursday
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(1/29/2015) The Phillies have designated pitcher Cesar Jimenez for assignment on Thursday, the team announced.

Philadelphia signed pitcher Chad Billingsley to a one-year deal, and needed to make room on the 40-man roster. In order to do so, Jimenez was designated for assignment. The 30-year-old Jimenez posted a 1.69 ERA over 16 innings with the major-league club last year.


Chad Billingsley signs with Phillies
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(1/29/2015) The Phillies have signed pitcher Chad Billingsley, according to MLB.com.

Billingsley is set to make $1.5 million next year. He's eligible to make more based on whether he can reach certain performance bonuses in the contract. Billingsley has pitched just 12 innings in the majors since 2012 due to elbow issues. He had Tommy John surgery in 2013, but experienced more elbow issues while rehabbing after the surgery. He had season-ending surgery to repair a torn flexor tendon in the same elbow, ending his 2014. The Dodgers opted to decline an option on Billingsley, making him a free-agent. 

The 30-year-old has compiled a 3.65 ERA over 1175 1/3 career innings. 


Red Sox add LaHair, Paulino and Quintero on minor-league deals
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(1/29/2015) The Red Sox have added Bryan LaHair , Felipe Paulino and Humberto Quintero on minor-league deals, according to the Boston Globe

All three players will receive invites to spring training. LaHair, 32, spent last season in the minors. He hit .223/.309/.318 over 453 at-bats. He was an All-Star with the Cubs back in 2012.

Paulino spent last season with the White Sox. After four starts in the majors, he was demoted. It was revealed Paulino was dealing with a shoulder injury. He missed most of the season recovering from the issue.

Quintero, 35, hit .290/.311/.425 in Triple-A last season. He received just two at-bats in the majors.


 
 
 
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