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2012 Fantasy outlooks: Philadelphia Phillies

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This time a year ago, the Phillies were the talk of the baseball world, having added Cliff Lee to an already formidable rotation to give them a starting five that rated among the best in history.

But for as much success as they had during the regular season, their super-rotation formula fell flat in the playoffs, saddling them with yet another first-round exit. Now, with their payroll tied up long-term, they have no choice but to do it all over again -- only a year older and without some of the players that made it possible last season.

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Roy Oswalt was one of those players. Granted, of the Phillies' quartet of aces entering 2011, he was the one who didn't pull his weight, spending time on the DL with back issues, but when he was healthy, he was an improvement over the Joe Blanton-Kyle Kendrick combo that will attempt to replace him.

Still, with Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels, pitching won't be this team's problem. Its problem will be a lineup that's quickly becoming long in the tooth, having relied on the same cast of characters for the last seven seasons. Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins are all 32 or older and showing clear signs of decline. The Phillies did inject some youth with the acquisition of Hunter Pence last July, but with Howard expected to miss a month or more with a torn left Achilles' -- and only Ty Wigginton and Jim Thome available to replace him -- a lineup that was already treading water will now be bailing it by the bucketful.

No doubt, the Phillies are still an NL powerhouse, and for all their inflated contracts, they did find a way to reel in closer Jonathan Papelbon this offseason. But with the rest of the NL East making even bigger moves, a changing of the guard could happen in the not-too-distant future. Outside of their pitching staff, the Phillies aren't the hotbed of Fantasy talent they used to be.

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Bust ... Hunter Pence, OF

The average Fantasy owner is all-in on Pence, targeting him as a top-10 outfielder in the fourth or fifth round. But before you hop aboard the hype train and ride it all the way to crazy town, you might want to remind yourself that the only aspect of his game that changed for the better last year was his batting average. He didn't gain any power. He didn't walk more or strike out less. He didn't fundamentally change as a player. He simply got better results, putting together a .361 BABIP instead of his usual .305 or so. It wouldn't be the first time. He had a .377 BABIP as a rookie in 2007, when he hit .322. But the peripherals suggested it was too good to be true then, and they do now as well. Pence is an asset in Fantasy because of his job security and 20-homer power, but he's a .280 hitter who can't take a walk. That, to me, isn't worth the price tag.

Sleeper ... John Mayberry, OF

General manager Ruben Amaro Jr. has made the comparison. Manager Charlie Manuel has made the comparison. It's Mayberry's identity now: the next Jayson Werth. For the Fantasy owners who have played long enough to remember when Werth rose from obscurity to put together a 20-20 season in 2008, that's cause for celebration. But is it a reasonable expectation? Hey, Mayberry is more of a certainty now than Werth was then, having hit 15 homers in 267 at-bats last year. Like Werth, he's a former first-round pick who, like Werth, didn't begin to meet his potential until his late 20s. And like Werth, he happens to be in the right place at the right time to take advantage. The Phillies are committed to starting Mayberry in left field this year, so as long as he hits righties well enough to keep Domonic Brown's bat in the minors (where the Phillies want it), 20-plus homers is the reasonable expectation. You won't find a more projectable player in the late rounds of mixed-league drafts.

Fading star ... Chase Utley, 2B

Chase Utley has a long history as the top second baseman in Fantasy, and though most owners recognize by now that younger players like Robinson Cano have leaped him the rankings, a certain segment of the Fantasy-playing community still regards him as elite based on nothing more than reputation. Really, nothing more. When he disappointed in 2010, you could argue it was mostly because he missed six weeks due to thumb surgery, but last year, his numbers simply weren't up to par. His .769 OPS was lower than that of Marco Scutaro, among others, decreasing (along with his batting average and slugging percentage) for the fifth straight season. Optimists will point out that Utley was never fully healthy, having missed the first seven weeks with a knee issue, but at age 33, injuries come with the territory. When a player on a steady downward trend can no longer stay in the lineup for 140 games, the end is near. I can think of better uses for my sixth-round pick than Utley.

2012 Philadelphia Phillies Fantasy Outlook
Projected Lineup Pos. Projected Rotation
1 Jimmy Rollins SS 1 Roy Halladay RH
2 Chase Utley 2B 2 Cliff Lee LH
3 Hunter Pence RF 3 Cole Hamels LH
4 Ryan Howard 1B 4 Vance Worley RH
5 Shane Victorino CF 5 Joe Blanton RH
6 John Mayberry LF Alt Kyle Kendrick RH
7 Placido Polanco 3B
Bullpen Breakdown
8 Carlos Ruiz C CL Jonathan Papelbon RH
Top bench options SU Antonio Bastardo LH
R Ty Wigginton UTL RP Jose Contreras RH
R Jim Thome 1B RP Michael Stutes RH
R Laynce Nix OF RP Dontrelle Willis LH
Rookies/Prospects Age Pos. 2011 high Destination
1 Trevor May 22 SP Class A Double-A
For all of Matt Moore's exploits last year, May actually led the minors in strikeouts per nine innings. He'll be ready to carry the baton once Halladay-Lee-Hamels is done.
2 Brody Colvin 21 SP Class A Class A
Though his stock dropped last year, Colvin still has top-of-the-rotation stuff if he can rediscover his delivery. Clearly, the Phillies don't have any reason to rush him.
3 Jesse Biddle 20 SP Class A Class A
Though maybe the safest of the Phillies' big pitching prospects, Biddle is also the furthest away. He'll need to show more consistent velocity to take another step forward.
4 Sebastian Valle 21 C Class A Double-A
Valle has a high ceiling both offensively and defensively, but his progress has been slow so far. You shouldn't expect to see him in the majors for a few more years.
5 Jonathan Pettibone 21 SP Class A Double-A
The hard-thrower with good command might be the pitching prospect closest to joining the Big Three in Philadelphia, but it still likely won't happen in 2012.
Best of the rest: Phillippe Aumont, RP; Justin De Fratus, RP; Michael Schwimer, RP; Joe Savery, RP; Freddy Galvis, SS; Larry Greene, OF; Tyson Gillies, OF; Matt Rizzotti, 1B; Austin Hyatt, SP; J.C. Ramirez, SP; Darin Ruf, 1B; and Harold Garcia, 2B.

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Player News
Angels RP Huston Street picks up save Monday
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(1:28 am ET) Angels pitcher Huston Street recorded the final three outs of Monday's 5-4 win over the Indians to earn his 26th save of the season.

Street allowed one hit and struck out one during the appearance. He has converted 26 of his 29 save opportunities this season.


Mariners send RP Jose Ramirez to Triple-A on Monday
by Jason Lempert | Staff Writer
(1:28 am ET) The Mariners optioned reliever Jose Ramirez to Triple-A Tacoma following Monday's 8-7 win over the Rockies. Ramirez, who was acquired from the Yankees for Dustin Ackley, has not yet pitched for his new club. 

But the Mariners will opt to send him down and call up a fresh arm for the bullpen. Although, the corresponding move won't be announced until Tuesday. 


Astros' Luis Valbuena slugs 20th home run in loss on Monday
by Jason Lempert | Staff Writer
(1:23 am ET) Astros infielder Luis Valbuena has recorded his first career 20-home run season, as he went 2 for 3 with a solo shot in Monday's 12-9 loss to the Rangers.

Valbuena's blast was his 20th of the year, but it also broke a 23-game homerless drought. Even with the two-hit effort, Valbuena is still batting a low .206 on the year.


Indians SP Corey Kluber gives up 10 hits in Monday's loss
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(1:21 am ET) Indians pitcher Corey Kluber was not sharp during Monday's 5-4 loss to the Angels.

Kluber allowed five runs on 10 hits over 5 2/3 innings. He also struck out four and did not walk a batter. His biggest mistake came in the sixth inning when he gave up a two-run home run to Conor Gillaspie.

Kluber is now 6-12 with a 3.60 ERA, but he has earned a quality start in six of his last eight outings.


Angels SP Garrett Richards fans 11 in Monday's win
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(1:15 am ET) Angels pitcher Garrett Richards struck out a season-high 11 batters during Monday's 5-4 win over the Indians.

Richards allowed four runs on four hits over 7 1/3 innings. He also walked three. His biggest mistake was giving up a two-run home to Yan Gomes in the first inning.

He received his 11th win of the season for his effort to break his two-game losing streak. Richards has earned a quality start in two of his last four outings.


Orioles' Chris Davis continues power surge with HR on Monday
by Jason Lempert | Staff Writer
(1:11 am ET) Orioles slugger Chris Davis got his team off to a good start on Monday, as he crushed a three-run home run with one out in the first inning, en route to a 9-2 win over the A's. Davis' home run was his 27th of the year, surpassing his total of 26 from a season ago.

It was the only hit of the night for Davis, who is batting .276 with five homers and 15 RBI over his past eight games.


A's SP Jesse Chavez gets blasted by Orioles on Monday
by Jason Lempert | Staff Writer
(1:08 am ET) Athletics starter Jesse Chavez was hit early and often in his outing against the Orioles on Monday. The right-hander allowed six runs on nine hits over just 3 2/3 innings. He threw 46 of 77 pitches for strikes, as the A's lost 9-2 on Monday.

Chavez (5-11) got off to a rocky start in this one, as he was down 3-0 before getting a chance to settle in. He gave up a three-run home run to Chris Davis in the very first inning. Caleb Joseph also touched up Chavez for a two-run blast in the fourth inning, as Chavez suffered his worst start of the season.

With the poor outing, Chavez's ERA rose to 3.88. He has now given up four or more runs in four of his past six starts, posting a 6.52 ERA over that stretch.


D-Backs SP Chase Anderson may make one more rehab start
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(1:08 am ET) After throwing four innings during a rehab outing in the minors Sunday, Diamondbacks manager Chip Hale said pitcher Chase Anderson may need another rehab start before returning to the team, reports The Arizona Republic.

Anderson was expected to replace Zack Godley in the rotation, but Hale said he is considering using a six-man rotation.

"That would help that, just get guys extra days," Hale said. "With [Patrick Corbin] coming back from Tommy John and all our young guys starting to pile up the innings. But it's tough to do that with still keeping seven bullpen guys. We would probably have to lose a position player. That's a very tough decision to make."


Orioles' Tyler Wilson posts strong start on Monday vs. A's
by Jason Lempert | Staff Writer
(1:02 am ET) Orioles starter Tyler Wilson was excellent in his outing against the A's on Monday. The right-hander threw 100 pitches over 7 2/3 innings, allowing two runs on six hits. He walked two and struck out three, and did a good job of limiting the damage against him in the 9-2 victory.

Wilson (2-1) was making just his second start of the year for the Orioles. He made some relief appearances in between the starts, but was sent down to Triple-A on June 20. 

He gave up a run in the fourth and one on the eighth before being pulled from the game. His ERA actually rose to 2.19 ERA in the strong outing. 


Mariners OF Nelson Cruz hits 30th home run of season Monday
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(12:56 am ET) Mariners outfielder Nelson Cruz connected off Rockies pitcher Eddie Butler for his 30th home run of the season during Monday's 8-7 win. The solo shot was his only RBI of the game. He finished the contest 3 for 4 with one walk.

Prior to Monday's win, Cruz was hitting .407 with eight home runs and 12 RBI in his last 13 games.


 
 
 
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