By the Numbers: Pitchers with a new look
Every season brings surprises, and there are always a handful of players who give us a performance that is out of step with our expectations. Sometimes the difference is obvious, like when someone like Ryan Vogelsong, Vance Worley or Philip Humber suddenly becomes relevant in standard or even shallow formats. Other times, the change is more subtle, but it's still worth noting for the impact in could have on a player's Fantasy future.
We looked at a handful of such hitters in the last By the Numbers column, which highlighted four players whose skill set at the plate had changed appreciably over the last two seasons. This time, we will turn our attention to a quartet of pitchers who have experienced similar shifts in their statistical profiles. As with the previous piece, our focus will be on four separate skill areas and a player who has greatly improved in that area. For each of the players featured, we can find that with a little extra digging beyond the numbers, there are reasons to think that Fantasy owners can capitalize on each pitcher's recent progress.
 Want more from Scott White, Al Melchior, Nando Di Fino and the hardest working staff of writers in the industry? Take their Fantasy advice with you on-the-go with our podcasts. Listen to the latest episode or subscribe for free in iTunes and get a leg up on your competition! Listen to our latest episode!Subscribe via iTunes today! |
Cole Hamels, Phillies (improved ground ball rate): Last season, Hamels' strikeout, walk and strand rates were not appreciably different from his career norms, yet he established career lows in ERA and WHIP and thrust himself into the top 10 of Fantasy starters. The difference-maker for Hamels was an improvement in his location, which has shown up in the form of a sharp two-year improvement in his ground ball rate. After inducing grounders on just 44 percent of hit balls in 2009, Hamels increased that rate to 47 percent in 2010 and 55 percent in 2011. However, it was only during last season that we saw the Phillies' lefty enjoy a decrease in his home run rate, as he suffered from a suspiciously-high 12 percent home run per flyball rate the year before.
The increase in ground balls is not just a coincidence for Hamels. Teammates Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and former Phillie Jamie Moyer impressed upon a younger, more homer-prone Hamels that focusing less on strikeouts, going deeper into games, and pitching lower in the zone would be critical to his success. As Hamels himself acknowledged, "Anytime flyballs are hit, especially in a hitter's park (like Philadelphia's Citizens Bank Park), it's not a good thing for me." In response, he developed a cutter in 2010, and according to Hamels, it features more of a downward cut than a sideways one. Owners who are suspicious of last season's reduced home run rate should recognize that Hamels has changed the way he pitches, and he is primed to remain a top 10 Fantasy option in 2012.
Others with improved ground ball tendencies: Johnny Cueto, Reds; Matt Garza, Cubs; Jeff Karstens, Pirates
Declining ground ball tendencies: Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies; Brad Bergesen, Orioles; Joel Pineiro, Phillies
Homer Bailey, Reds (improved control): Bailey has been a frustrating pitcher to own in Fantasy. He has become a much more skilled hurler since his first three seasons in the majors, particularly making consistent strides in his control, yet his ERA refuses to reflect any of that improvment. While Bailey's growing propensity for throwing strikes has shown up in the form of lower walk rates and WHIPs and longer outings, his ERA has remained stubborly parked in the 4.43 to 4.53 range. However, low strand rates over the last two seasons have obscured the progress that Bailey has made.
As with Hamels, the improvemnets that are visible on Bailey's stat sheet are the result of intentional changes to his approach on the mound. Reds' pitching coach Bryan Price said of Bailey that he "wants to finish what he starts," even though for the most part, "today's pitcher doesn't." Bailey now relies more on his slider and splitter, worrying less about blowing batters away with his fastball, which he would sometimes throw for what Price calls "empty pitches," which had no intended effect other than to bully opposing hitters. With fewer pointless pitches and a more thoughtful, economical approach, Bailey has become a better source for WHIP and innings, and if he get his strand rate back over 70 percent, he could be a surprise contributor in ERA, too. Assuming Bailey can accomplish that and keep his shoulder healthy, he could bring owners a high return on a late-round pick in mixed leagues this year.
Others with improved control: Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers; Bruce Chen, Royals; Justin Masterson, Indians
Declining control: John Lannan, Nationals; Jake Westbrook, Cardinals; Nick Blackburn, Twins
Cory Luebke, Padres (improved strikeout rate): Luebke was decidedly not a strikeout pitcher in the minors, so when he struck out 18 batters in a 17 2/3-inning trial in late 2010, it had "small sample fluke" written all over it. When he kept up his strikeout pace in the bullpen early last season, many doubted that he could carry such a high rate over to a starting role, should he be given one again. Then, when Luebke maintained his dominance after making 17 starts last season, his strikeout rate became harder to ignore and even harder to explain.
|
|
|
|
 |
It turns out that Luebke was too fond of pitching inside as a minor leaguer. When he arrived in San Diego, he worked with pitching coach Darren Balsley, who taught Luebke -- to use the lefty's own words -- to "move my fastball around in the zone more." Now that Luebke is less predictable with his location, he is getting batters to swing and miss far more often. According to the StatCorner website, Luebke's swinging strike rate was under nine percent in Triple-A, but last season as a starter, his rate was in excess of 10 percent. Luebke's doubters will likely be fewer on Draft Day this year, but owners should still be careful not to sell him short. He is now a proven source of strikeouts and in Head-to-Head leagues he provides owners with the flexibility of dual SP/RP eligibility.
Others with increasing strikeout rates: David Price, Rays; Cliff Lee, Phillies; Trevor Cahill, Diamondbacks
Decreasing strikeout rates: Dan Haren, Angels; Max Scherzer, Tigers; Ricky Nolasco, Marlins.
Jon Lester, Red Sox (improved line drive rate): Some pitchers are just better at avoiding line drives than others, though it's not clear what makes them better. Pitchers who have underwhelmed Fantasy owners in recent years -- like the former Fausto Carmona, Jeremy Guthrie and Nick Blackburn -- have posted line drive rates well below the major league average over the last four seasons, while standouts like Justin Verlander and Josh Johnson own some of the highest rates. Line drive rates fluctuate far more than most other pitching stats, but if a pitcher establishes a level far from the major league norm, he tends to maintain his tendency over the long term. Lester is one of those rare pitchers who has a line drive rate of 17 percent or lower over the last four years, and his rate has dropped sharply in each of the last two seasons.
Odds are good that Lester will not be able to repeat last year's 14 percent rate this season, but given his long-term history of compiling low rates, he may not regress much. If Lester's line drive rate does soar this season, he would need to cut back on walks in order to maintain his ERA and WHIP. Without a lower walk or line drive rate, Lester could no longer be trusted as a No. 2 Fantasy starter, but his track record suggests that he can be, making him likely to provide a sufficient return on an investment of a draft pick within the first four or five rounds in mixed leagues.
Others with decreasing line drive rates: Ricky Romero, Blue Jays; Luke Hochevar, Royals; Ervin Santana, Angels
Increasing line drive rates: Chris Carpenter, Cardinals; Edwin Jackson, Free agent; Randy Wolf, Brewers
Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyBB or Al Melchior at @almelccbs . You can also send our staff an e-mail at fantasybaseball@cbsinteractive.com .
