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2012 Fantasy outlooks: Baltimore Orioles

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Another year, another projected last-place finish for the Orioles.

It's as predictable as a Mark Reynolds strikeout. This year will make it five straight, barring the miraculous, and with yet another change in regime this offseason, the organization doesn't have much to show for its period of futility.

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The future wasn't always so bleak. As recently as last spring, the Orioles appeared to have the pieces in place for the next step forward. But their foundation was supposed to be their young starting rotation, and of Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta, Chris Tillman and Zach Britton, the only one whose season didn't end in disaster was Britton.

Granted, young pitchers usually need time to adjust to the majors, but Matusz, Arrieta and Tillman were supposed to have gotten that time already. Their lack of progress at this stage of their development makes them anything but certainties for the Orioles going forward.

Thus, new GM Dan Duquette's primary mission this offseason was to collect as many fallback options as possible, and on that front, he left no stone unturned, signing left-handers Wei-Yin Chen and Tsuyoshi Wada of the Japanese League. Between them, journeyman Jason Hammel and the options already in place, the Orioles should be able to find a suitable starting five even if it's not the one that they originally had in mind.

The starting lineup is a little more stable, though its nucleus -- a group that includes Reynolds, J.J. Hardy, Nick Markakis, Adam Jones and Matt Wieters -- lacks star potential. Brian Roberts is a lost cause given his concussion woes, and the Orioles are grasping at straws with retreads like Chris Davis, Wilson Betemit and Nolan Reimold.

In the bullpen, Jim Johnson, Kevin Gregg and Matt Lindstrom will compete for ninth-inning duties, but on a team destined to finish last, it won't make much of a difference to Fantasy owners. And unfortunately, if Matusz, Arrieta and Tillman remain stuck in neutral, it'll be par for the course in Baltimore until the next wave of talent arrives.

Breakout ... Matt Wieters, C

Coming off a 22-homer 2011, Wieters is already a Fantasy mainstay. But he still hasn't lived up to the potential that made him the No. 1 overall prospect entering 2009. Fortunately, if the way he finished last season is any indication, his next step is on the horizon. The 25-year-old hit .281 with 12 homers and a .927 OPS over his final 167 at-bats -- numbers that, over a full season, would have made him arguably the top catcher in Fantasy. And if his improved walk rate during that stretch is any indication, Wieters is beginning to figure it out against major-league pitching. It's taken a while -- as is often the case for catchers, given their responsibilities on defense -- but it's happening at a young enough age that Fantasy owners can assume the best is yet to come. Given the risks for high-end catchers like Joe Mauer and Buster Posey this year, perhaps you're better off waiting an extra couple rounds and selecting Wieters.

Bust ... Adam Jones, OF

Funny how a subtle boost in homers, from 19 to 25, can change Fantasy owners' perception of a player. Jones' "power breakthrough" had more to do with at-bats than anything else -- his slugging percentage was only nine points higher than his previous career high -- and yet the same people who previously rated him among the mediocre middle are drafting him alongside established five-category threats Shane Victorino and Shin-Soo Choo this year. Jones is no five-category threat. Granted, another step forward power-wise, which is at least possible for the 26-year-old, would help compensate for his shortcomings, but who's to say one will actually happen? Again, his percentages suggest he hasn't made any real progress over the last three seasons and as a player who strikes out 100 more times than he walks, he's always at risk for a collapse in batting average. As a third or fourth outfielder he's fine, but as a No. 2, Jones is better left for someone else.

Sleeper ... Brian Matusz, SP

Believe it or not, Matusz went 6-0 with a 1.57 ERA and a strikeout per inning over his final eight starts in 2010, which makes his dismal 2011 even harder to reconcile. But hey, Roy Halladay had a 10.64 ERA in 2000, and he turned out fine. So before you go overboard and suggest Matusz is a lost cause, think back to how the 2011 season began for him. He went down before it even started with an intercostal strain and when he returned, his velocity was the lowest it's ever been. He spent the rest of the season trying to regain his stuff, basically going through spring training while every other player was in midseason form, and by the time his velocity returned, it was September. This year, instead of falling behind, Matusz has committed himself to getting ahead by working out with Brady Anderson in the offseason. The 24-year-old may not win a rotation spot out of spring training, but given his talent, he'll be back soon enough.

2012 Baltimore Orioles Fantasy Outlook
Projected Lineup Pos. Projected Rotation
1 Brian Roberts 2B 1 Zach Britton LH
2 J.J. Hardy SS 2 Jason Hammel RH
3 Nick Markakis RF 3 Wei-Yin Chen LH
4 Adam Jones CF 4 Jake Arrieta RH
5 Matt Wieters C 5 Tsuyoshi Wada LH
6 Mark Reynolds 3B Alt Tommy Hunter RH
7 Wilson Betemit DH
Bullpen Breakdown
8 Chris Davis 1B CL Jim Johnson RH
9 Nolan Reimold LF SU Matt Lindstrom RH
Top bench options RP Kevin Gregg RH
R Endy Chavez OF RP Troy Patton LH
R Robert Andino IF RP Pedro Strop RH
Rookies/Prospects Age Pos. 2011 high Destination
1 Manny Machado 19 SS Class A Class A
A knee injury prevented Machado's first full professional season from being all it could be, but as far as shortstop prospects go, he's still as good as it gets offensively.
2 Dylan Bundy 19 SP DNP -- signed late Class A
As the fourth overall pick in the 2011 draft, Bundy has the upside to compete with Machado for the top spot on this list. The future ace could be several years away, though.
3 Wei-Yin Chen 26 SP DNP -- in Japan Majors
Equipped with low-90s stuff, Chen had great numbers in Japan and could still improve at age 26. He's no Yu Darvish, though, which makes him a gamble better left for AL-only leagues.
4 Jonathan Schoop 20 2B Class A Double-A
Schoop doesn't have quite as much upside as Machado, but he's a solid hitter with decent pop who could give the Orioles an All-Star double-play combination down the road.
5 Tsuyoshi Wada 31 SP DNP -- in Japan Majors
Wada had better numbers than Chen in Japan, but his stuff tops out in the high 80s, which could prove disastrous in the AL East. At age 31, he's a now-or-never pick in AL-only leagues.
Best of the rest: Ryan Adams, 2B; Jerome Hoes, OF; Ryan Flaherty, 2B; Xavier Avery, OF; Daniel Klein, RP; Matt Antonelli, 2B; Matt Angle, OF; Oliver Drake, SP; Trent Mummey, OF; Joe Mahoney, 1B; and Wynn Pelzer, SP.
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Player News
Jake Arrieta awaits what he hopes is last rehab start
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(12:58 pm ET) Right-hander Jake Arrieta is slated for another rehab start Monday for Class-A Daytona, which he hopes will be his final tuneup before joining the Cubs.

Arrieta made three rehab starts with Double-A Tennessee, but the team has "demoted" him so he can pitch in warmer weather. He is planning on throwing about 100 pitches in his upcoming outing.


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(12:43 pm ET) Orioles third baseman Manny Machado is off Sunday, according to MLB.com.

Machado's day off was scheduled as part of his rehab. He will return to the field Monday and play seven innings. He's working his way back from a knee injury.


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by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12:28 pm ET) Astros infield prospect Delino DeShields will be out for some time with a fractured cheekbone, according to MLB.com.

DeShields was hit in the face with a 90 mph fastball Friday night. The fracture is non-displaced. He was one of the team's late cuts during camp.


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by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12:25 pm ET) Angels reliever Sean Burnett tossed an "impressive" bullpen recently, according to the Orange County Register

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(12:21 pm ET) The Reds have activated relief pitcher Sean Marshall off the disabled list after a rehab stint and returned fellow right-hander Curtis Partch back to Triple-A Louisville.

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Bruce Chen in the lineup Saturday
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12:18 pm ET) Royals pitcher Bruce Chen will make his scheduled start Saturday.

Chen was considered questionable entering the game due to a glute injury. The club shuffled their rotation around to make sure Chen would be able to pitch this week. He received a few extra days in order to be ready for the start.


David Robertson says he's ready to go
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(12:14 pm ET) Yankees reliever David Robertson says he's ready to go, according to the LoHud Yankees Blog.

Robertson recorded four outs during an extended spring training game Saturday. He gave up one single and had one strikeout. Following the appearance, Robertson said he's good to go. Robertson has been trying to come back from a groin injury.


Tommy Hanson moved to Triple-A
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12:10 pm ET) White Sox pitcher Tommy Hanson has made his way to Triple-A, according to the Chicago Sun-Times

Hanson signed with the club, but was pitching in extended spring training in order to build his strength. He'll likely need a few starts before the team considers bringing him up to the majors. 


Report: Andre Rienzo coming back to the majors
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12:05 pm ET) White Sox pitcher Andre Rienzo will be called up to the majors, according to his Facebook page.

Rienzo announced the news on Facebook, which was translated to say he was called up, and would pitch in the next few days. Rienzo said he doesn't know how long he'll be up. He will likely replace Felipe Paulino in the rotation. Paulino has struggled early, and complained of some soreness following Friday's game. 


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by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(11:51 am ET) Angels first baseman Albert Pujols is dealing with a bone bruise in his left heel, according to the Los Angeles Times

Pujols has been dealing with the injury since the first week of the season, and it's not expected to be serious. He's hitting .279, with five homeruns this year.


 
 
 
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