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2012 Fantasy outlooks: Baltimore Orioles

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Another year, another projected last-place finish for the Orioles.

It's as predictable as a Mark Reynolds strikeout. This year will make it five straight, barring the miraculous, and with yet another change in regime this offseason, the organization doesn't have much to show for its period of futility.

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The future wasn't always so bleak. As recently as last spring, the Orioles appeared to have the pieces in place for the next step forward. But their foundation was supposed to be their young starting rotation, and of Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta, Chris Tillman and Zach Britton, the only one whose season didn't end in disaster was Britton.

Granted, young pitchers usually need time to adjust to the majors, but Matusz, Arrieta and Tillman were supposed to have gotten that time already. Their lack of progress at this stage of their development makes them anything but certainties for the Orioles going forward.

Thus, new GM Dan Duquette's primary mission this offseason was to collect as many fallback options as possible, and on that front, he left no stone unturned, signing left-handers Wei-Yin Chen and Tsuyoshi Wada of the Japanese League. Between them, journeyman Jason Hammel and the options already in place, the Orioles should be able to find a suitable starting five even if it's not the one that they originally had in mind.

The starting lineup is a little more stable, though its nucleus -- a group that includes Reynolds, J.J. Hardy, Nick Markakis, Adam Jones and Matt Wieters -- lacks star potential. Brian Roberts is a lost cause given his concussion woes, and the Orioles are grasping at straws with retreads like Chris Davis, Wilson Betemit and Nolan Reimold.

In the bullpen, Jim Johnson, Kevin Gregg and Matt Lindstrom will compete for ninth-inning duties, but on a team destined to finish last, it won't make much of a difference to Fantasy owners. And unfortunately, if Matusz, Arrieta and Tillman remain stuck in neutral, it'll be par for the course in Baltimore until the next wave of talent arrives.

Breakout ... Matt Wieters, C

Coming off a 22-homer 2011, Wieters is already a Fantasy mainstay. But he still hasn't lived up to the potential that made him the No. 1 overall prospect entering 2009. Fortunately, if the way he finished last season is any indication, his next step is on the horizon. The 25-year-old hit .281 with 12 homers and a .927 OPS over his final 167 at-bats -- numbers that, over a full season, would have made him arguably the top catcher in Fantasy. And if his improved walk rate during that stretch is any indication, Wieters is beginning to figure it out against major-league pitching. It's taken a while -- as is often the case for catchers, given their responsibilities on defense -- but it's happening at a young enough age that Fantasy owners can assume the best is yet to come. Given the risks for high-end catchers like Joe Mauer and Buster Posey this year, perhaps you're better off waiting an extra couple rounds and selecting Wieters.

Bust ... Adam Jones, OF

Funny how a subtle boost in homers, from 19 to 25, can change Fantasy owners' perception of a player. Jones' "power breakthrough" had more to do with at-bats than anything else -- his slugging percentage was only nine points higher than his previous career high -- and yet the same people who previously rated him among the mediocre middle are drafting him alongside established five-category threats Shane Victorino and Shin-Soo Choo this year. Jones is no five-category threat. Granted, another step forward power-wise, which is at least possible for the 26-year-old, would help compensate for his shortcomings, but who's to say one will actually happen? Again, his percentages suggest he hasn't made any real progress over the last three seasons and as a player who strikes out 100 more times than he walks, he's always at risk for a collapse in batting average. As a third or fourth outfielder he's fine, but as a No. 2, Jones is better left for someone else.

Sleeper ... Brian Matusz, SP

Believe it or not, Matusz went 6-0 with a 1.57 ERA and a strikeout per inning over his final eight starts in 2010, which makes his dismal 2011 even harder to reconcile. But hey, Roy Halladay had a 10.64 ERA in 2000, and he turned out fine. So before you go overboard and suggest Matusz is a lost cause, think back to how the 2011 season began for him. He went down before it even started with an intercostal strain and when he returned, his velocity was the lowest it's ever been. He spent the rest of the season trying to regain his stuff, basically going through spring training while every other player was in midseason form, and by the time his velocity returned, it was September. This year, instead of falling behind, Matusz has committed himself to getting ahead by working out with Brady Anderson in the offseason. The 24-year-old may not win a rotation spot out of spring training, but given his talent, he'll be back soon enough.

2012 Baltimore Orioles Fantasy Outlook
Projected Lineup Pos. Projected Rotation
1 Brian Roberts 2B 1 Zach Britton LH
2 J.J. Hardy SS 2 Jason Hammel RH
3 Nick Markakis RF 3 Wei-Yin Chen LH
4 Adam Jones CF 4 Jake Arrieta RH
5 Matt Wieters C 5 Tsuyoshi Wada LH
6 Mark Reynolds 3B Alt Tommy Hunter RH
7 Wilson Betemit DH
Bullpen Breakdown
8 Chris Davis 1B CL Jim Johnson RH
9 Nolan Reimold LF SU Matt Lindstrom RH
Top bench options RP Kevin Gregg RH
R Endy Chavez OF RP Troy Patton LH
R Robert Andino IF RP Pedro Strop RH
Rookies/Prospects Age Pos. 2011 high Destination
1 Manny Machado 19 SS Class A Class A
A knee injury prevented Machado's first full professional season from being all it could be, but as far as shortstop prospects go, he's still as good as it gets offensively.
2 Dylan Bundy 19 SP DNP -- signed late Class A
As the fourth overall pick in the 2011 draft, Bundy has the upside to compete with Machado for the top spot on this list. The future ace could be several years away, though.
3 Wei-Yin Chen 26 SP DNP -- in Japan Majors
Equipped with low-90s stuff, Chen had great numbers in Japan and could still improve at age 26. He's no Yu Darvish, though, which makes him a gamble better left for AL-only leagues.
4 Jonathan Schoop 20 2B Class A Double-A
Schoop doesn't have quite as much upside as Machado, but he's a solid hitter with decent pop who could give the Orioles an All-Star double-play combination down the road.
5 Tsuyoshi Wada 31 SP DNP -- in Japan Majors
Wada had better numbers than Chen in Japan, but his stuff tops out in the high 80s, which could prove disastrous in the AL East. At age 31, he's a now-or-never pick in AL-only leagues.
Best of the rest: Ryan Adams, 2B; Jerome Hoes, OF; Ryan Flaherty, 2B; Xavier Avery, OF; Daniel Klein, RP; Matt Antonelli, 2B; Matt Angle, OF; Oliver Drake, SP; Trent Mummey, OF; Joe Mahoney, 1B; and Wynn Pelzer, SP.

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Player News
Cubs RF Jorge Soler hits game-tying double on Saturday
by Jason Lempert | Staff Writer
(2:00 am ET) Cubs right fielder Jorge Soler broke out of his recent mini-slump with a two-hit night in Saturday's win over the Diamondbacks. Soler went 2 for 4 with a big game tying, two-run double in the top of the eighth inning.

Soler's two-bagger knotted the game up at six, and set the stage for the team to post three more in the ninth for the victory. 

This was Soler's fourth two-hit performance in his last seven games. However, he was hitless int he other three games, and he is now 8 for 29 over that stretch.


Diamondbacks getting aggressive on the basepaths
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(1:58 am ET) The Diamondbacks have been speed demons so far this season. Arizona entered Saturday's game tied for second in the National League with 40 stolen bases, led by A.J. Pollock with 10 and Paul Goldschmidt with eight.

"What we've really tried to do the whole year is if there's an opportunity there, be aggressive with it," Goldschmidt said to MLB.com. "It's just another way we can get a guy into scoring position and make it a little bit easier on offense to score."

Pollock is tied for fourth in the NL with his stolen bases and 12 different players have recorded at least one stolen base.

"If it is a good spot and it's a good opportunity to take one, we'll try to take it," Pollock said. "We've got a pretty dynamic team and overall our team speed is pretty good. You've got a couple guys that kind of fly under the radar with speed and they can sneak one here and there."


Diamondbacks LF David Peralta hits three-run double on Saturday
by Jason Lempert | Staff Writer
(1:56 am ET) Diamondbacks left fielder David Peralta belted a bases-clearing double in the bottom of the fifth inning in Saturday's loss to the Cubs. It was Peralta's only hit of the game, and it gave his team a 5-4 advantage.

Saturday was Peralta's second three-RBI performance in his last four games as he continues to have a solid year at the plate in his second year as a big-leaguer. He's now hitting .257 with four home runs and 21 RBI on the year.


Rockies SS Daniel Descalso blasts second home run of the year
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(1:55 am ET) Rockies shortstop Daniel Descalso went 1 for 4 at the plate in Colorado's 5-3 win over the Giants on Saturday.

Descalso did his damage in the sixth inning when he belted a two-run home run off of Yusmeiro Petit, his second of the season. Descalso is now hitting .200 with 11 RBI in 54 at-bats this season.


Rockies reliever John Axford nails down sixth save of the season
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(1:55 am ET) Rockies relief pitcher John Axford worked a nearly perfect ninth inning on Saturday in Colorado's 5-3 win over the Giants, earning his sixth save of the season.

After allowing a leadoff single, Axford managed to get a fly out to center field, who then doubled off the baserunner trying to advanced to third. Axford then forced a groundout to end the game. Axford lowered his ERA to 0.90 in 10 innings of work.


Giants pitcher Yusmeiro Petit allows four runs in losing effort
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(1:55 am ET) Giants pitcher Yusmeiro Petit allowed four runs on seven hits in six innings of work in San Francisco's 5-3 loss to the Rockies on Saturday.

Petit didn't have any issues until the fourth, when he allowed three consecutive batters to reach base safely, including an RBI double by Brandon Barnes. Then, he forced a groundout by Daniel Descalso, but that also brought home a run.

In the sixth, Petit surrendered a two-run homer to Descalso. Petit, now 1-1, moved his ERA to 3.86 in 28 innings of work. 


Rockies pitcher David Hale earns first win of the year in spot start
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(1:55 am ET) Rockies pitcher David Hale allowed three runs, two earned, on eight hits in 6 2/3 innings of work on Saturday in Colorado's 5-3 win over the Giants.

Hale, who was called up from Triple-A to make a spot start in a doubleheader for Colorado, ran into some issues in the second when he allowed a run to score on a wild pitch. Then in the fifth, Hale put runners on second and third with two out before allowing an RBI single to Nori Aoki, scoring a run. 

Hale would allow one more run in the seventh before getting the hook. Hale, now 1-0, moved his ERA to 2.70 on the season. 


Diamondbacks' A.J. Pollock continues hot hitting roll
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(1:52 am ET) Diamondbacks center fielder A.J. Pollock went 1 for 4 in Arizona's 9-6 loss on Saturday. It was Pollock's first "bad game" in his last five. Entering Saturday, Pollock was 10 for 16 in the last four, something he can't explain, according to MLB.com.

"Just clicking, I don't know what's going on," Pollock said. "It's just baseball, you feel like you've got something, you're not getting hits, then you do the same thing and you're getting hits. It's just how the game is."

Manager Chip Hale noted his approach change to his recent success.

"He's really turned it up in just the mental part of the game, of picking the pitches that he wants to go after, whether it's the first pitch or a pitch with two strikes," Hale said. "Instead of trying to guess or wait, he's looking for a good pitch to hit out over the plate and using the whole field."

Pollock is now hitting .308 with 16 RBI in 156 at-bats this season.


Diamondbacks C Tuffy Gosewisch blasts first home run of 2015
by Jason Lempert | Staff Writer
(1:51 am ET) Diamondbacks catcher Tuffy Gosewisch launched his first home run in over a year, as Arizona fell to the Cubs 9-6 on Saturday. Gosewisch's only other home run came on April 22, 2014.

Saturday's solo shot came in the sixth inning off Cubs' starter Jake Arrieta, and gave the D-Backs a 6-4 lead. The 31-year-old Gosewisch has hit safely in nine of his last 11 games and owns a .231 batting average on the season.


Cubs RP Jason Motte picks up relief win on Saturday
by Jason Lempert | Staff Writer
(1:44 am ET) Cubs reliver Jason Motte (2-1) earned a win in relief in Saturday's 9-6 victory over the Diamondbacks. Motte entered the bottom of the eighth inning with one away and managed to retire the two batters he faced. The Cubs put up three runs in their half of the ninth, which allowed Motte to pick up the win. 

The hard-throwing right-hander lowered his season ERA to 4.76 and he has not been scored upon in his last four outings.


 
 
 
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