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2012 Fantasy outlooks: Baltimore Orioles

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Another year, another projected last-place finish for the Orioles.

It's as predictable as a Mark Reynolds strikeout. This year will make it five straight, barring the miraculous, and with yet another change in regime this offseason, the organization doesn't have much to show for its period of futility.

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The future wasn't always so bleak. As recently as last spring, the Orioles appeared to have the pieces in place for the next step forward. But their foundation was supposed to be their young starting rotation, and of Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta, Chris Tillman and Zach Britton, the only one whose season didn't end in disaster was Britton.

Granted, young pitchers usually need time to adjust to the majors, but Matusz, Arrieta and Tillman were supposed to have gotten that time already. Their lack of progress at this stage of their development makes them anything but certainties for the Orioles going forward.

Thus, new GM Dan Duquette's primary mission this offseason was to collect as many fallback options as possible, and on that front, he left no stone unturned, signing left-handers Wei-Yin Chen and Tsuyoshi Wada of the Japanese League. Between them, journeyman Jason Hammel and the options already in place, the Orioles should be able to find a suitable starting five even if it's not the one that they originally had in mind.

The starting lineup is a little more stable, though its nucleus -- a group that includes Reynolds, J.J. Hardy, Nick Markakis, Adam Jones and Matt Wieters -- lacks star potential. Brian Roberts is a lost cause given his concussion woes, and the Orioles are grasping at straws with retreads like Chris Davis, Wilson Betemit and Nolan Reimold.

In the bullpen, Jim Johnson, Kevin Gregg and Matt Lindstrom will compete for ninth-inning duties, but on a team destined to finish last, it won't make much of a difference to Fantasy owners. And unfortunately, if Matusz, Arrieta and Tillman remain stuck in neutral, it'll be par for the course in Baltimore until the next wave of talent arrives.

Breakout ... Matt Wieters, C

Coming off a 22-homer 2011, Wieters is already a Fantasy mainstay. But he still hasn't lived up to the potential that made him the No. 1 overall prospect entering 2009. Fortunately, if the way he finished last season is any indication, his next step is on the horizon. The 25-year-old hit .281 with 12 homers and a .927 OPS over his final 167 at-bats -- numbers that, over a full season, would have made him arguably the top catcher in Fantasy. And if his improved walk rate during that stretch is any indication, Wieters is beginning to figure it out against major-league pitching. It's taken a while -- as is often the case for catchers, given their responsibilities on defense -- but it's happening at a young enough age that Fantasy owners can assume the best is yet to come. Given the risks for high-end catchers like Joe Mauer and Buster Posey this year, perhaps you're better off waiting an extra couple rounds and selecting Wieters.

Bust ... Adam Jones, OF

Funny how a subtle boost in homers, from 19 to 25, can change Fantasy owners' perception of a player. Jones' "power breakthrough" had more to do with at-bats than anything else -- his slugging percentage was only nine points higher than his previous career high -- and yet the same people who previously rated him among the mediocre middle are drafting him alongside established five-category threats Shane Victorino and Shin-Soo Choo this year. Jones is no five-category threat. Granted, another step forward power-wise, which is at least possible for the 26-year-old, would help compensate for his shortcomings, but who's to say one will actually happen? Again, his percentages suggest he hasn't made any real progress over the last three seasons and as a player who strikes out 100 more times than he walks, he's always at risk for a collapse in batting average. As a third or fourth outfielder he's fine, but as a No. 2, Jones is better left for someone else.

Sleeper ... Brian Matusz, SP

Believe it or not, Matusz went 6-0 with a 1.57 ERA and a strikeout per inning over his final eight starts in 2010, which makes his dismal 2011 even harder to reconcile. But hey, Roy Halladay had a 10.64 ERA in 2000, and he turned out fine. So before you go overboard and suggest Matusz is a lost cause, think back to how the 2011 season began for him. He went down before it even started with an intercostal strain and when he returned, his velocity was the lowest it's ever been. He spent the rest of the season trying to regain his stuff, basically going through spring training while every other player was in midseason form, and by the time his velocity returned, it was September. This year, instead of falling behind, Matusz has committed himself to getting ahead by working out with Brady Anderson in the offseason. The 24-year-old may not win a rotation spot out of spring training, but given his talent, he'll be back soon enough.

2012 Baltimore Orioles Fantasy Outlook
Projected Lineup Pos. Projected Rotation
1 Brian Roberts 2B 1 Zach Britton LH
2 J.J. Hardy SS 2 Jason Hammel RH
3 Nick Markakis RF 3 Wei-Yin Chen LH
4 Adam Jones CF 4 Jake Arrieta RH
5 Matt Wieters C 5 Tsuyoshi Wada LH
6 Mark Reynolds 3B Alt Tommy Hunter RH
7 Wilson Betemit DH
Bullpen Breakdown
8 Chris Davis 1B CL Jim Johnson RH
9 Nolan Reimold LF SU Matt Lindstrom RH
Top bench options RP Kevin Gregg RH
R Endy Chavez OF RP Troy Patton LH
R Robert Andino IF RP Pedro Strop RH
Rookies/Prospects Age Pos. 2011 high Destination
1 Manny Machado 19 SS Class A Class A
A knee injury prevented Machado's first full professional season from being all it could be, but as far as shortstop prospects go, he's still as good as it gets offensively.
2 Dylan Bundy 19 SP DNP -- signed late Class A
As the fourth overall pick in the 2011 draft, Bundy has the upside to compete with Machado for the top spot on this list. The future ace could be several years away, though.
3 Wei-Yin Chen 26 SP DNP -- in Japan Majors
Equipped with low-90s stuff, Chen had great numbers in Japan and could still improve at age 26. He's no Yu Darvish, though, which makes him a gamble better left for AL-only leagues.
4 Jonathan Schoop 20 2B Class A Double-A
Schoop doesn't have quite as much upside as Machado, but he's a solid hitter with decent pop who could give the Orioles an All-Star double-play combination down the road.
5 Tsuyoshi Wada 31 SP DNP -- in Japan Majors
Wada had better numbers than Chen in Japan, but his stuff tops out in the high 80s, which could prove disastrous in the AL East. At age 31, he's a now-or-never pick in AL-only leagues.
Best of the rest: Ryan Adams, 2B; Jerome Hoes, OF; Ryan Flaherty, 2B; Xavier Avery, OF; Daniel Klein, RP; Matt Antonelli, 2B; Matt Angle, OF; Oliver Drake, SP; Trent Mummey, OF; Joe Mahoney, 1B; and Wynn Pelzer, SP.

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Player News
Kyle Hendricks tosses seven one-run innings vs. Reds
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(10:40 pm ET) Cubs pitcher Kyle Hendricks earned a win Wednesday, allowing just one earned run on seven hits in seven innings and striking out four in his team's 3-1 victory over the Reds.

Hendricks (7-2) surrendered a run on a groundout in the first inning but was able to bounce back and throw six scoreless innings before exiting after just 80 pitches. It was his first quality start in three September tries. Hendricks owns a 2.28 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 43:14 K:BB ratio in 75 innings. He's scheduled to face the Cardinals next Wednesday.


Daniel Corcino strikes out six in loss vs. Cubs
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(10:40 pm ET) Reds pitcher Daniel Corcino took a loss Wednesday, allowing two earned runs on three hits and four walks in 5 2/3 innings while striking out six in his team's 3-1 defeat against the Cubs.

Corcino (0-1) has given up just five hits in 11 2/3 innings over his first two starts, but he hasn't been able to break through with a win. The Cubs were able to push both runs across in the second inning after the Reds took a 1-0 lead in the first. Corcino owns a 4.40 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 13:6 K:BB ratio in 14 1/3 innings. He's not yet scheduled to start again but could slot in next Wednesday.


Brett Oberholtzer drops one Wednesday
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(10:35 pm ET) Astros pitcher Brett Oberholtzer was a hard luck loser Wednesday against the Indians. 

Oberholtzer allowed two runs on seven hits over 7 2/3 innings. He struck out three and did not issue any walks during the outing. Oberholtzer started out well, tossing three scoreless innings to open the game. He ran into trouble in the fourth, giving up a single and RBI double with two outs. He allowed another run with two outs in the sixth inning. With a man on first, Oberholtzer allowed a run-scoring triple. Oberholtzer would nearly make it through eight innings before he was pulled. He threw 94 pitches.

With the loss, Oberholtzer dropped to 5-12. He’ll take on the Rangers in his next start.


J.A. Happ turns in a tough start
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(10:30 pm ET) Blue Jays pitcher J.A. Happ had a tough start Wednesday against the Orioles.

Happ allowed five runs on eight hits over six innings. He struck out six and did not issue a walk during the outing. Steve Pearce appeared to be the main issue for Happ. Pearce belted a solo home run in the third inning, starting the scoring. With two men on in the fifth inning, Pearce struck again. His two home runs accounted for four of the five runs Happ allowed. After giving up a leadoff single to start the seventh inning, Happ was pulled. The run would come around to score, and was charged to Happ.

With the loss, Happ dropped to 10-10. He’ll take on the Mariners in his next start. 


Bud Norris wins despite control issues
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(10:29 pm ET) Orioles pitcher Bud Norris had some control issues Wednesday against the Blue Jays.

Norris allowed two hits over 5 1/3 scoreless innings. He walked five and struck out four during the outing. Norris’ penchant for free passes nearly got him in trouble at a few points during the game. He put men on second and third with only one out in the second inning, but was able to work his way out of the jam. Norris also put two men on in his final inning of work. After getting a lineout, he was pulled from the game. Norris threw 108 pitches.

With the win, Norris improved to 14-8. He’ll take on the Yankees in his next start. 


Steve Cishek earns 37th save Wednesday
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(10:29 pm ET) Marlins closer Steve Cishek secured his 37th save Wednesday, striking out one in a 1-2-3 ninth inning to finish off his team's 4-3 win over the Mets.

Cishek has strung together eigth straight scoreless outings, striking out 13 and walking only two during that stretch. He owns a 3.27 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 81:21 K:BB ratio in 63 1/3 innings.


Dillon Gee surrenders four runs in loss vs. Marlins
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(10:24 pm ET) Mets pitcher Dillon Gee took a loss Wednesday, giving up four earned runs on seven hits and two walks in 6 2/3 innings and striking out four in his team's 4-3 defeat against the Marlins.

Gee (7-8) had a pair of runs score in the first inning, one on a wild pitch and the next on an infield single. The Marlins tacked on another run in the second inning before adding to a 3-2 lead in the seventh with an RBI double. Gee, who didn't surrender a home run for the first time in four starts, owns a 3.88 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 92:43 K:BB ratio in 132 1/3 innings. He's scheduled to face the Nationals next Wednesday.


Henderson Alvarez allows two runs in win vs. Mets
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(10:24 pm ET) Marlins pitcher Henderson Alvarez earned a win Wednesday, giving up two earned runs on eight hits and two walks in six innings while striking out four in his team's 4-3 victory over the Mets.

Alvarez (11-6) was staked to a three-run lead early and was able to hold the Mets to a pair of runs on a bases-loaded single in the fifth inning. While his strikeouts have been somewhat lacking all season, the starter still owns a 2.82 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 106:32 K:BB ratio in 172 1/3 innings. He's scheduled to face the Phillies Tuesday.


Jason Heyward injures thumb Wednesday, X-rays negative
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(10:22 pm ET) Braves outfielder Jason Heyward was removed from Wednesday's game with a thumb injury, but X-rays revealed no fracture, MLB.com reports.

Heyward was 0 for 2 before exiting in the eighth inning Wednesday and is day-to-day moving forward. He has hit .272/.351/.387 with 11 home runs, 58 RBI and 19 stolen bases in 556 at-bats.


Alex Cobb turns in quality start in loss
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(10:20 pm ET) Rays pitcher Alex Cobb turned in a quality start Wednesday against the Yankees.

Cobb allowed three runs on four hits over six innings. He struck out three and walked three during the outing. Cobb got off to a strong start, throwing four scoreless innings to open the frame. He allowed his first two runs in the fifth inning. After hitting the leadoff man with a pitch, Cobb allowed a run to score on a double. Two batters later, he would allow another run-scoring double. He ran into more trouble in the sixth inning. After loading the bases with no outs, Cobb gave up his final run on a sac fly. He was able to work around the base runners, and did not allow any additional runs.

With the loss, Cobb dropped to 9-8. He’ll take on the Red Sox in his next start. 


 
 
 
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