2012 Fantasy outlooks: Houston Astros
The Houston Astros' 2012 campaign is going to mark the end of an era.
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Beginning as the Colts .45's in 1962, the Houston franchise has always been a member of the National League. But that is going to change in 2013 when the Astros pack their bags for the American League.
Therefore, baseball enthusiasts get to enjoy the Astros in the Senior Circuit for one more year. Then again, "enjoy" probably isn't the right word when it comes to discussing this year's team. "Rebuilding effort" and "extended losing streaks" might be better phrases.
Houston has made nine playoff appearances through the years, but 2011 wasn't one of them. Last year's team finished with a franchise-worst 56 wins and lost north of 100 games for the first time in team history. At least the good news for the 2012 squad is that likely won't get any worse.
The days of Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio are distant memories. The only real star bat left is Carlos Lee, but the big question is who will provide El Caballo with lineup protection?
The rebuilding project began the last few years as Houston traded stars Roy Oswalt, Lance Berkman, Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn. The Astros are now ready to start over with the likes of J.D. Martinez, Jose Altuve, Brett Wallace, Jason Castro, Jason Bourgeois and Jordan Schafer, but the Astros aren't built to contend this season.
The strength of this year's Houston squad lies in its rotation. Wandy Rodriguez, Brett Myers and Bud Norris give the Astros a potentially potent 1-2-3 punch. Houston could also get a huge lift from lefty J.A. Happ if he pitches more like the guy that went 12-4 in 2009 with Philadelphia and not the 6-15 arm he was in 2011. Houston is also hoping homegrown arm Jordan Lyles can solidify the back of the rotation instead of heading back to the minors for more seasoning.
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The two biggest offseason acquisitions were shortstop Jed Lowrie and catcher Chris Snyder. Lowrie will now get to play every day without looking over his shoulder. Snyder's ability to handle a pitching staff will be a welcomed addition in Houston and also his presence will help ease Castro back into action after he missed last season with a knee injury.
Once considered a weakness, the Astros have started to rebuild their farm system. Trades have brought them potential stars in Jonathan Singleton and Jarred Cosart, and strong drafts have landed them George Springer and Delino Deshields.
But that seems to be the underlying theme with Houston -- building toward the future.
Sleeper ...
Martinez has developed into a steal for the Astros. He hasn't even played a full season in the majors, but has already surpassed expectations as a 20th round draft pick in 2009. Martinez sped through the minors thanks to a .342 average, .414 on-base percentage and .958 OPS. He has more of a line-drive swing and is a better doubles hitter, but he could get some cheap homers at Minute Maid Park. The good news for Martinez is that manager Brad Mills is likely to hit him third in front of Carlos Lee. Martinez hit .295 with five homers, 12 doubles and 31 RBI in 44 games batting third in 2011.
Injury-risk sleeper ... Jed Lowrie, SS
Let's take a moment to reminisce about the season that could have been for Lowrie in 2011 had he not developed a nagging shoulder injury. He hit .306 with a .354 OBP and .804 OPS in his first 46 games (40 starts). He also had 21 RBI in that span. Unfortunately, Lowrie went on the disabled list in mid-June and didn't return until early August, but he wasn't the same. He hit .195 in his last 42 games. That's going to be the biggest question mark for Lowrie heading into this season. If healthy, he could end up a steal for Fantasy owners. But his shoulder problem and the fact he no longer plays for a contender means you can't invest more than a late-round pick on Lowrie.
Late-round flier ... Bud Norris, SP
Norris hasn't had a winning season since his rookie campaign in 2009 and might be headed for a third straight losing campaign in 2012, but we still feel the best is yet to come from the soon-to-be 27-year-old hurler. Fantasy owners might not realize, but Norris is averaging 8.8 strikeouts per nine innings in his career, which is his strongest Fantasy asset. However, Norris also lowered his ERA to 3.77 and his WHIP to 1.33 in 2011. It's also worth pointing out that opponents have hit .256 or worse against Norris the last two seasons. He remains only a late-round flier because the wins could be hard to come by, but Norris definitely has appeal as a back-of-the-rotation Fantasy arm.
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| Projected Lineup | Pos. | Projected Rotation | |||
| 1 | Jordan Schafer | CF | 1 | Wandy Rodriguez | LH |
| 2 | Jose Altuve | 2B | 2 | Brett Myers | RH |
| 3 | J.D. Martinez | LF | 3 | Bud Norris | RH |
| 4 | Carlos Lee | 1B | 4 | J.A. Happ | LH |
| 5 | Brian Bogusevic | RF | 5 | Livan Hernandez | RH |
| 6 | Jed Lowrie | SS | Alt | Jordan Lyles | RH |
| 7 | Jimmy Paredes | 3B | | ||
| 8 | Jason Castro | C | CL | Brandon Lyon | RH |
| Top bench options | SU | Wilton Lopez | RH | ||
| R | Jason Bourgeois | OF | RP | Juan Abreu | RH |
| R | Chris Snyder | C | RP | Sergio Escalona | LH |
| R | Brett Wallace | 1B | RP | Fernando Rodriguez | RH |
| Rookies/Prospects | Age | Pos. | 2011 high | Destination | |
| 1 | Jonathan Singleton | 20 | 1B | Class A | Double-A |
| Former Phillies farmhand that has potential to hit .300 with 25-30 homers in majors. | |||||
| 2 | Jarred Cosart | 21 | SP | Double-A | Double-A |
| Another key part of Hunter Pence trade, Cosart has ace potential but could transition to closer as well. | |||||
| 3 | George Springer | 22 | OF | Class A | Class A |
| First-round pick from 2011 who is a five-tool player. A power-speed combo guy in the mold of Matt Kemp. | |||||
| 4 | Jonathan Villar | 20 | SS | Double-A | Double-A |
| Villar's strengths are his defense and speed, but needs to improve strike-zone discipline. | |||||
| 5 | Domingo Santana | 19 | OF | Class A | Class A |
| The word that best describes Santana is raw, but the ceiling is high if he reaches his full potential. | |||||
| Best of the rest: Paul Clemens, SP; Brett Oberholtzer, SP; Delino Deshields, 2B; Mike Foltynewicz, SP; Telvin Nash, 1B/OF; Kyle Weiland, SP; Adrian Houser, SP; Austin Wates, OF; Jiovanni Mier, SS; Tanner Bushue, SP; Ariel Ovando, OF; Nick Torpeano, SP | |||||
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