Forgot Log-in or  Password? |  Help  Not a member, Register Now!
      
Fantasy Football Today
Fantasy Football Today Blog
Gameday Inactives
2014 Draft Prep Guide
Downloadable Draft Kit
Mock Drafts
Get Your Draft Board
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Scores
Fantasy Games
Playoff Challenge
Commissioner
Prize Leagues
Free
Office Pool Manager
Game Pick'em
Player Challenge
Fantasy Baseball Today
Fantasy Baseball Today Blog
Downloadable Draft Kit
Mock Drafts
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Rankings
Projections
Schedules
Probable Pitchers
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injuries
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Message Boards
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Downloadable Draft Kit
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
No Fantasy Teams Found
 
 
 

2012 Draft Prep: Tiers for fears over uncertainty

  •  

We've all been there. You're in the middle of your draft, rummaging through spreadsheets, books, magazines and written notes, and all of a sudden, you realize your pick is up. Worse yet, you see that your options are not what you would call optimal. In a matter of seconds, how do you choose between, say, the injury-prone shorstop, the aging outfielder and the young third baseman who may or may not take that big step forward this year?

Don't Just Play, Play to Win!
Fantasy Baseball Today Be sure to catch Fantasy Baseball 360 LIVE at 5 p.m. ET every weekday to dominate your Fantasy leagues. Our writers will have the latest news, analysis and roster trends each afternoon.
Fantasy Baseball TodayCheck out the latest episode!

What you're dealing with is uncertainty, and every pick you make requires you to evaluate it to one degree or another. Arraying the player pool into tiers is a useful strategy for managing uncertainty. Seeing which positions offer the broadest range of similar choices helps to manage a dizzying number of factors to consider by giving you a single task to focus on. That task, namely, is to identify the positions where there aren't so many similar options that you can't wait much longer to fill them without sacrificing production. Also, if you think of each tier as a control group for expected production, that frees you up to focus more on how players within a tier differ in terms of their risk levels.

The hitter tiers presented here are designed to help you do both things. For each non-pitching position, I have clustered players together according to how I think they will produce this year. To help identify risks, I have zeroed in on a handful of players at each position who have had some of the highest and lowest walk-to-strikeout ratios (BB/K) in recent seasons. Of all the skills that a hitter literally brings to the plate, his strike zone recognition is the one that tends to be most consistent from year-to-year (as has been shown in research by Bill Petti). Other skills, particularly home run and gap power, are more prone to external factors, like venue, climate and random fluctuation. By singling out the players who have been the best and worst at making contact and drawing walks, we know who not only puts themselves in the best position to maximize their batting average and on-base percentage, but also to hit for power and have stolen base opportunities.

Catchers

Overview: While Carlos Santana is far ahead of his peers, the second tier of catchers has really beefed up. Those looking to draft Mike Napoli soon after Santana is taken should note that, though he made some gains last season, he's been one of the lesser catchers in terms of BB/K ratio in recent years. Last season's breakout had a strong basis in the stats (i.e., BABIP, home run per flyball ratio) that fluctuate more. With so many second-tier options, there is no reason to overpay. On the other hand, if Joe Mauer recaptures even part of his power, his strong BA and OBP foundation helps to make him a solid member of this tier, even if he misses time again due to injuries.
In a class by himself: Carlos Santana.
Second tier: Brian McCann, Mike Napoli, Alex Avila, Matt Wieters, Miguel Montero, Joe Mauer, Buster Posey.
Third tier: Russell Martin, Jesus Montero, J.P. Arencibia, Yadier Molina, Wilson Ramos, Geovany Soto, Jonathan Lucroy, Kurt Suzuki.
Last call for standard mixed leagues: Devin Mesoraco, John Buck, Jarrod Saltalamachhia, Ryan Doumit, A.J. Pierzynski, Carlos Ruiz.
For deeper leagues only: Chris Iannetta, Miguel Olivo, Nick Hundley, Rod Barajas, A.J. Ellis, Wilin Rosario, Yorvit Torrealba, Josh Donaldson, Josh Thole, Ramon Hernandez, Tyler Flowers, Jason Castro, Ryan Hanigan.

First Basemen

Follow us, Like us, Join us
Want more? Join the discussion on our Facebook page and Google+ and follow us on Twitter for additional insight while interacting with a community geared toward Fantasy Baseball.

Overview: Not surprisingly, every member of the first two tiers is among the top players in BB/K ratio at the position. Right up there with them, though, is Lance Berkman. Many owners still worry about Berkman's age and poor 2010 campaign, but that year aside, his peripherals have been highly consistent going back to 2007. He is a worthy reach early in the third tier. So far, Michael Cuddyer is going early among the fourth-tier first basemen, but there's no reason to pursue him too eagerly. Not only does he own a mediocre BB/K ratio, but his tendency to hit grounders makes him a poor candidate to benefit from a Coors Field boost.
First tier: Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols
Second tier: Joey Votto, Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder, Mark Teixeira.
Third tier: Carlos Santana, Paul Konerko, Lance Berkman, Michael Morse, Eric Hosmer, Michael Young.
Fourth tier: Freddie Freeman, Mike Napoli, Gaby Sanchez, Michael Cuddyer, Ike Davis.
Last call for standard mixed leagues: Carlos Lee, Adam Lind, Paul Goldschmidt, Carlos Pena, Mark Reynolds, Justin Morneau, Lucas Duda, James Loney, Ryan Howard.
For deeper leagues only: Edwin Encarnacion, Mark Trumbo, Daniel Murphy, Adam LaRoche, Adam Dunn, Kendrys Morales, Brandon Belt, Chris Davis, Justin Smoak, Mitch Moreland, Garrett Jones, Todd Helton, Aubrey Huff, Mike Carp, Casey Kotchman, Juan Rivera, Brett Wallace.

Second Basemen

Overview: Robinson Cano isn't the walker or base stealer that Dustin Pedroia or Ian Kinsler is, but it's not as if he's worked his way into the top tier through fluky home run or BABIP rates. He is still very much in the discussion for the top second baseman overall. Owners shouldn't expect Ben Zobrist to revert back to his 2009 form, when he improbably hit eight line drive homers, but given his strong BB/K history and last season's sustainable BABIP and home run per flyball (HR/FB) rates, a repeat of 2011 is highly likely. That really puts Zobrist in a mini-tier by himself -- call it "1a" -- between Kinsler and Rickie Weeks. Further down in the second tier, I like Howard Kendrick for his emerging power, but he does put up abysmal walk rates. If last season's 18 homers prove to be a fluke, Kendrick has little to fall back on to prop up his value.
First tier: Dustin Pedroia, Robinson Cano, Ian Kinsler.
Second tier: Ben Zobrist, Rickie Weeks, Dan Uggla, Brandon Phillips, Howard Kendrick, Dustin Ackley.
Third tier: Chase Utley, Jemile Weeks, Neil Walker, Ryan Roberts.
Last call for standard mixed leagues: Kelly Johnson, Danny Espinosa, Aaron Hill, Jason Kipnis, Omar Infante, Daniel Murphy.
For deeper leagues only: Johnny Giavotella, Jose Altuve, Ryan Raburn, Tyler Greene, Orlando Hudson, Gordon Beckham, Freddy Sanchez, Mike Aviles, Darwin Barney, Alexi Casilla, Mark Ellis, Jamey Carroll.

Third Basemen

Overview: Jose Bautista doesn't just blow away the field with his power, as he is far and away the best of the top options in terms of BB/K ratio. After Bautista and Evan Longoria is a crowded second tier, loaded with players who practically ooze risk. Kevin Youkilis is no exception, as he has played in no more than 136 games in any of the last three seasons. A sports hernia and hip bursitis sapped Youkilis' power last season, but he is reportedly healthy again this spring. He could easily surprise owners with his first 25-plus homer season since 2009, and meanwhile, he continues to live up to his "Greek God of Walks" moniker. With Youkilis going after Adrian Beltre, Ryan Zimmerman, David Wright, Brett Lawrie and Alex Rodriguez in many leagues, it could pay huge dividends to wait out much of the second tier to land him.
First tier: Jose Bautista, Evan Longoria.
Second tier: Adrian Beltre, Ryan Zimmerman, David Wright, Kevin Youkilis, Brett Lawrie, Pablo Sandoval, Michael Young.
Third tier: Alex Rodriguez, Mark Reynolds, Aramis Ramirez, Emilio Bonifacio, Ryan Roberts, Martin Prado.
Last call for standard mixed leagues: Mike Moustakas, Chase Headley, Danny Valencia, Edwin Encarnacion, Mat Gamel, David Freese.
For deeper leagues only: Placido Polanco, Chipper Jones, Lonnie Chisenhall, Daniel Murphy, Chris Davis, Ian Stewart, Scott Rolen, Wilson Betemit, Brent Morel, Pedro Alvarez, Mike Aviles, Alberto Callaspo, Jimmy Paredes, Chone Figgins, Juan Uribe, Casey Blake, Jack Hannahan.

Shortstops

Overview: More than any other position, it's useful to have a handle on who has good strike zone recognition among shortstops. Frankly, there aren't many choosy hitters among the bunch. Jose Reyes, Troy Tulowitzki and Hanley Ramirez all rank fairly high in BB/K ratio at the position, which further bolsters their position as elites. Further down the tiers, Jimmy Rollins stands out as a strong contact hitter with good walk rates, which has helped him to maintain his value in the face of fluctuating popup rates. While the younger Starlin Castro and Asdrubal Cabrera have had more allure for owners in this year's drafts, Rollins could outproduce both of them more well-placed flyballs. In fact, Castro's low walk rates could render him a huge disappointment, especially if his path towards stardom takes an unexpected detour (which often happens to hitters in their early 20s). Down in the "last call" category, highly selective Yunel Escobar and Marco Scutaro offer some safety, while Jhonny Peralta's mediocre batting eye makes him a risk to keep his rebound from 2011 going. His bounce-back was fueled largely by an inflated .333 BABIP, not by improved contact skills.
First tier: Troy Tulowitzki, Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes.
Second tier: Starlin Castro, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jimmy Rollins.
Third tier: Elvis Andrus, Emilio Bonifacio, Derek Jeter, Erick Aybar, Alexei Ramirez.
Last call for standard mixed leagues: Jhonny Peralta, Yunel Escobar, J.J. Hardy, Dee Gordon, Alcides Escobar, Marco Scutaro, Zack Cozart.
For deeper leagues only: Stephen Drew, Rafael Furcal, Jed Lowrie, Ian Desmond, Cliff Pennington, Jason Bartlett, Eduardo Nunez, Clint Barmes, Tyler Pastornicky, Alexi Casilla, Alex Gonzalez, Tyler Greene, Brendan Ryan, Jamey Carroll, Ruben Tejada, Sean Rodriguez, Brandon Crawford.

Check out our Fantasy Baseball podcast!
Stay a step ahead of your competition in 2014 by checking out our popular Fantasy Baseball Today podcasts. Adam Aizer, Scott White and Al Melchior will entertain you and help you dominate all season.
Latest episode | Subscribe!

Outfielders

Overview: For many owners, it's no longer a new discovery that the pool of high-end outfielders is drying up in Fantasy. That makes the occupants of the first two tiers all the more valuable. Once the top options for your No. 1 outfielder become unavailable, Andrew McCutchen and Matt Holliday are worth a long look due to their high BB/K ratios. Holliday is an especially good target, as he is falling to the fourth round or later in many leagues, yet his 6.9 Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) was not much different from that of Justin Upton (7.2) and Carlos Gonzalez (6.9) last season. Shane Victorino, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Lee, Coco Crisp and Nick Markakis are others who deserve at least a slight upgrade due to their selective approaches, while Jeff Francoeur, Adam Jones and Delmon Young are especially vulnerable to their success being built on favorable statistical fluctuations, as all historically have posted poor BB/K ratios.
First tier: Jose Bautista, Matt Kemp, Ryan Braun, Jacoby Ellsbury, Curtis Granderson.
Second tier: Justin Upton, Carlos Gonzalez, Andrew McCutchen, Josh Hamilton, Giancarlo Stanton, Matt Holliday.
Third tier: Shane Victorino, Carl Crawford, Michael Bourn, Ben Zobrist, Shin-Soo Choo, Lance Berkman.
Fourth tier: Andre Ethier, Hunter Pence, Nelson Cruz, Desmond Jennings, Chris Young, Jay Bruce, Ichiro Suzuki, Corey Hart, Alex Gordon, Michael Morse, Nick Markakis.
Fifth tier: B.J. Upton, Brett Gardner, Adam Jones, Drew Stubbs, Jason Heyward, Martin Prado, Emilio Bonifacio, Howard Kendrick, Jayson Werth, Melky Cabrera, Austin Jackson, Michael Cuddyer, Nick Swisher, Logan Morrison.
Sixth tier: Cameron Maybin, Coco Crisp, Jeff Francoeur, Angel Pagan, Jose Tabata, Peter Bourjos, Carlos Beltran.
Last call for standard mixed leagues: Delmon Young, Brennan Boesch, Matt Joyce, Lorenzo Cain, Yonder Alonso, Josh Willingham, Jason Kubel, Carlos Lee, Lucas Duda, Torii Hunter, Eric Thames, Alex Rios, Carlos Quentin, J.D. Martinez, Alejandro De Aza, Dexter Fowler, Brandon Belt.
Noteworthy deeper league options: Dayan Viciedo, Bobby Abreu, Alex Presley, Vernon Wells, John Mayberry, Michael Brantley, Nyjer Morgan, Jason Bay, Allen Craig, Will Venable, Nolan Reimold, David DeJesus, Colby Rasmus, Andres Torres, Alfonso Soriano, Denard Span, Ryan Ludwick, Rajai Davis, Ben Revere, Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, Jon Jay, Franklin Gutierrez.

Get player news notifications, manage your team and check scores
- all updated in real time. Download the CBS Fantasy App.

  •  
 
CBSSports Facebook Google Plus
COMMENTS
Conversation powered by Livefyre
 
 
Player News
Brewers' Khris Davis to work on being a patient hitter in 2015
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(2/27/2015) Brewers outfielder Khris Davis realizes he didn't show patience at the plate last year in his first full major-league season, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.

"I built a reputation in the organization of being a patient hitter," Davis said. "I felt like I wasn't a patient hitter at all last year. I was a little eager, wanting to please too much, too early. I found out I'm human."

Davis drew just 32 walks in 549 plate appearances while posting a .299 OBP in 2014, a number far away from his career .392 OBP in the minors.

"He was different last year," manager Ron Roenicke said. "Everybody goes through different phases. Guys change. (His walk total) was too low. He's a guy I think should be fairly patient. He sees pitches well. When he starts getting anxious, he becomes more aggressive and chases more. He realizes it, which is the first step. If you don't realize it and don't listen to other people when they tell you that, then you have issues. You have to have good self-awareness to be a good player. Sometimes these players don't have good self-awareness. But if they had better self-awareness they'd be a better player."

Davis is determined to fulfill the potential that caused the organization to move Ryan Braun to right field before the 2014 season and plug Davis into the regular left-field role.

"I can't thank them enough for having patience with me," Davis said. "I'm going to work it out. When you get here, you want to stay. That's the toughest part at first. I don't think this league has seen the best of me yet. I'm ready to pull that out and prove it day by day. I learned so many lessons there are too many to name."

Davis hit .244/.299/.457 with 22 home runs and 69 RBI in 501 at-bats.


Indians' Francona keeping a close eye on Giovanny Urshela
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(2/27/2015) Indians manager Terry Francona has been keeping a close eye on third-base prospect Giovanny Urshela, who was only recently cleared for a full range of activities after tweaking his knee during winter ball, MLB.com reports.

"He has a tremendous reputation of being a really good defender," Francona said. "I think I've been more wanting to watch his gait, just to make sure he's not favoring that leg. He promised us that, if he was, he'd let us know, but I also know he's a young kid in his first major-league camp."

Urshela suffered the injury on Nov. 15 and has rehabbed the injured knee at the team's spring-training facility in Goodyear, Ariz.

"He's worked really hard to get himself to where he can go through a normal spring," said Indians' director of player development Carter Hawkins. "We're very excited about the spot he's in right now, given the possible outcomes of the injury."

Urshela saw his first action at the Triple-A level in 2014, hitting .276/.331/.473 with 13 home runs and 65 RBI in 395 at-bats with Columbus.


Reds' Brennan Boesch to see time at first base this spring
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(2/27/2015) Reds manager Bryan Price indicated Friday that outfielder Brennan Boesch would see time at all three outfield spots as well as at first base as he competes for a roster spot this spring, MLB.com reports.

"We already know he's a terrific player," Price said of Boesch, who has never played first base professionally. "He kind of got banged up and lost his way a little bit, but I think he feels -- and we feel -- that he's back on top of his game, and maybe his best days are ahead of him."

Boesch said he doesn't see the battle for a reserve outfield role as a "competition."

"I only care about the competition against the pitcher, and that's really as basic as I keep it," Boesch said. "You aren't competing against other players. We're all on the same side here. We're all wearing Red jerseys. Let the chips fall where they may."

Boesch struggled in limited time with the Angels in 2014 but hit .332/.381/.636 with 25 home runs, 85 RBI and 10 stolen bases in 374 at-bats with Triple-A Salt Lake.


Dodgers' Mattingly: Turner has 'put a lot of time in and it shows'
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(2/27/2015) Dodgers infielder Justin Turner earned a nonroster invitation to the team's camp last year and ended up leading the team in batting average, and he's been working on his body like a fiend over the winter, MLB.com reports.

"Going into last year, we felt if he played every day, he'd get in trouble, and we found that out, but this year maybe he can handle more," manager Don Mattingly said Friday. "He's really been diligent about his work, been at Dodger Stadium almost daily. He's put a lot of time in and it shows."

Turner credited strength-and-conditioning coach Brandon McDaniel for his workout success.

"Brandon did everything. He's been a one-man wrecking crew," said Turner. "He and his family deserve the credit. I've been able to establish a routine and train consistently. Before I signed a year ago, I was on my own, going to 24 Hour Fitness, had to coordinate everything myself."

Turner added that he lost 18 pounds this winter through a healthier diet. Mattingly said that he intends to use the infielder at the corner-infield positions and also potentially up the middle.


Nationals' Matt Skole: 'I'm eating healthy and working hard'
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(2/27/2015) Nationals first baseman Matt Skole missed most of 2013 after undergoing Tommy John surgery and struggled at the plate in 2014 but showed up to camp in better shape and will look to rebound in 2015, MLB.com reports.

"This offseason, I had a little more time to work on my body," Skole said. "I really got after it in the weight room. I ate right. I ate healthy. I think that was probably the biggest difference for me. I'm about the same weight as I was. I just leaned out a little bit. I'm eating healthy and working hard."

Skole worked with hitting coordinator Troy Gingrich for a month after the season and learned to keep his hands up in order to hit the ball consistently after having his hands too low during his down 2014 season.

"After taking a year off, it was more difficult than I thought it would be," the left-handed-swinging Skole said. "But coming back, I turned some corners, made some strides as far as getting to know myself as a player and know the things I need to fix. I think everything I did last year was a stepping stone for this year."

Skole hit .241/.352/.399 with 14 home runs and 68 RBI in 461 at-bats with Double-A Harrisburg last season.


Report: Dodgers sign center fielder Travis Witherspoon
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(2/27/2015) The Dodgers signed center fielder Travis Witherspoon to their organization, according to a report from Baseball America

Witherspoon has previously been in the Angels and Mariners organizations. In six years of minor-league ball, Witherspoon has posted a career batting average of .252 with 68 home runs. He hit a minor-league single-season best 15 home runs in 2014 with the Mariners' Single-A affiliate High Desert Mavericks. 


Phillies' Buchanan 'working on being a complete pitcher'
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(2/27/2015) Phillies pitcher David Buchanan is "working on being a complete pitcher," manager Ryan Sandberg said, per the Philadelphia Inquirer.

The team's coaches spoke with Buchanan in the fall about command and pitch sequencing, executing bunts and thwarting would-be base-stealers, and Sandberg noted while examining the players that arrived early that the pitcher had taken the advice to heart.

"My biggest goal [this spring] is to show our front office and our coaches that I can throw the ball over the plate," Buchanan said. "That's one thing I had success with last year. I wasn't walking guys. I was throwing strikes, and that's what I'm known for. That's why I succeeded in the minor leagues; I was throwing strikes. So that's what I want to do this spring training, is continue to do that, pound the zone, force early contact and keep the ball on the ground."

Buchanan is scheduled to pitch the team's Grapefruit League opener Tuesday against the Yankees.


Giants' Bochy: Hunter Strickland 'needs to get a little smarter'
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(2/27/2015) Giants pitcher Hunter Strickland is ready to learn from his mistakes from the tail end of his 2014 season.

Starting strong once he was called up from Double-A Richmond, Strickland gave up six home runs in the postseason. Giants manager Bruce Bochy said the remedy to put Strickland back on track is simple. 

"He needs to get a little smarter," Bochy said, per MLB.com.  

Strickland will be competing for a spot in the bullpen during spring training. His fastball is a strength, though it's a matter of his command improving on the mound. 

"The failures are what make guys better, I feel like," Strickland said. "I feel like they made me better. Just being in tune with yourself and knowing who you are and what you've got to do. In this game, you're not going to make it too far if you don't have confidence. If you don't believe in yourself, who else is going to believe in you?"


Mets' Nieuwenhuis, den Dekker competing for roster spot
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(2/27/2015) Mets left-handed hitters Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Matt den Dekker will be battling for one roster spot this spring, MLB.com reports.

While Nieuwenhuis is out of options, manager Terry Collins indicated that den Dekker has responded to the team's request that he reduce his strikeouts when sent to Triple-A last season.

"We'll just see how it translates this spring into what kind of an offensive player he can be," Collins said of den Dekker. "We know he's got the defensive skills."

Collins said that whichever outfielder shows the most promise will make the initial 25-man roster.

"He plays the game right. He's fearless," Collins said of Nieuwenhuis. "But right now, we've got to get some offense from one of those two guys. Which one of those two guys is going to be able to come off the bench as a pinch-hitter? The best closers in our division are all right-handed, so the left-handed hitter off that bench is going to be a big piece."


Stephen Strasburg wants to stay with Nationals
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(2/27/2015) Though Stephen Strasburg's agent Scott Boras denied a report that he wanted to be traded in January, the right-handed pitcher said himself that he wants to remain with the Nationals and has no issues with the organization. 

"I haven't said anything like that," Strasburg said in an interview with MLB.com. "I don't feel like that. You have to accept it because that's how the system works. It's like they pick up on any little thing and they twist it. Some people want to turn it to see how many clicks they can get on the webpage."

Strasburg is set to be the ace of a deep rotation that looks to be on of the best in baseball this coming season. With the Nationals winning their second divisional title in the past three seasons, Strasburg said he's happy with the organization. 

"It's the team that drafted me. I love the players here, I love D.C. Winning cures everything, that's for sure," Strasburg said. "I'm excited to be part of the resurgence so far. It's great to see the type of players we bring in here every year. The expectations keep going up and up. Hopefully, we can do big things this year."


 
 
 
Rankings