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2012 Draft Prep: Tiers for fears over uncertainty

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We've all been there. You're in the middle of your draft, rummaging through spreadsheets, books, magazines and written notes, and all of a sudden, you realize your pick is up. Worse yet, you see that your options are not what you would call optimal. In a matter of seconds, how do you choose between, say, the injury-prone shorstop, the aging outfielder and the young third baseman who may or may not take that big step forward this year?

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What you're dealing with is uncertainty, and every pick you make requires you to evaluate it to one degree or another. Arraying the player pool into tiers is a useful strategy for managing uncertainty. Seeing which positions offer the broadest range of similar choices helps to manage a dizzying number of factors to consider by giving you a single task to focus on. That task, namely, is to identify the positions where there aren't so many similar options that you can't wait much longer to fill them without sacrificing production. Also, if you think of each tier as a control group for expected production, that frees you up to focus more on how players within a tier differ in terms of their risk levels.

The hitter tiers presented here are designed to help you do both things. For each non-pitching position, I have clustered players together according to how I think they will produce this year. To help identify risks, I have zeroed in on a handful of players at each position who have had some of the highest and lowest walk-to-strikeout ratios (BB/K) in recent seasons. Of all the skills that a hitter literally brings to the plate, his strike zone recognition is the one that tends to be most consistent from year-to-year (as has been shown in research by Bill Petti). Other skills, particularly home run and gap power, are more prone to external factors, like venue, climate and random fluctuation. By singling out the players who have been the best and worst at making contact and drawing walks, we know who not only puts themselves in the best position to maximize their batting average and on-base percentage, but also to hit for power and have stolen base opportunities.

Catchers

Overview: While Carlos Santana is far ahead of his peers, the second tier of catchers has really beefed up. Those looking to draft Mike Napoli soon after Santana is taken should note that, though he made some gains last season, he's been one of the lesser catchers in terms of BB/K ratio in recent years. Last season's breakout had a strong basis in the stats (i.e., BABIP, home run per flyball ratio) that fluctuate more. With so many second-tier options, there is no reason to overpay. On the other hand, if Joe Mauer recaptures even part of his power, his strong BA and OBP foundation helps to make him a solid member of this tier, even if he misses time again due to injuries.
In a class by himself: Carlos Santana.
Second tier: Brian McCann, Mike Napoli, Alex Avila, Matt Wieters, Miguel Montero, Joe Mauer, Buster Posey.
Third tier: Russell Martin, Jesus Montero, J.P. Arencibia, Yadier Molina, Wilson Ramos, Geovany Soto, Jonathan Lucroy, Kurt Suzuki.
Last call for standard mixed leagues: Devin Mesoraco, John Buck, Jarrod Saltalamachhia, Ryan Doumit, A.J. Pierzynski, Carlos Ruiz.
For deeper leagues only: Chris Iannetta, Miguel Olivo, Nick Hundley, Rod Barajas, A.J. Ellis, Wilin Rosario, Yorvit Torrealba, Josh Donaldson, Josh Thole, Ramon Hernandez, Tyler Flowers, Jason Castro, Ryan Hanigan.

First Basemen

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Overview: Not surprisingly, every member of the first two tiers is among the top players in BB/K ratio at the position. Right up there with them, though, is Lance Berkman. Many owners still worry about Berkman's age and poor 2010 campaign, but that year aside, his peripherals have been highly consistent going back to 2007. He is a worthy reach early in the third tier. So far, Michael Cuddyer is going early among the fourth-tier first basemen, but there's no reason to pursue him too eagerly. Not only does he own a mediocre BB/K ratio, but his tendency to hit grounders makes him a poor candidate to benefit from a Coors Field boost.
First tier: Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols
Second tier: Joey Votto, Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder, Mark Teixeira.
Third tier: Carlos Santana, Paul Konerko, Lance Berkman, Michael Morse, Eric Hosmer, Michael Young.
Fourth tier: Freddie Freeman, Mike Napoli, Gaby Sanchez, Michael Cuddyer, Ike Davis.
Last call for standard mixed leagues: Carlos Lee, Adam Lind, Paul Goldschmidt, Carlos Pena, Mark Reynolds, Justin Morneau, Lucas Duda, James Loney, Ryan Howard.
For deeper leagues only: Edwin Encarnacion, Mark Trumbo, Daniel Murphy, Adam LaRoche, Adam Dunn, Kendrys Morales, Brandon Belt, Chris Davis, Justin Smoak, Mitch Moreland, Garrett Jones, Todd Helton, Aubrey Huff, Mike Carp, Casey Kotchman, Juan Rivera, Brett Wallace.

Second Basemen

Overview: Robinson Cano isn't the walker or base stealer that Dustin Pedroia or Ian Kinsler is, but it's not as if he's worked his way into the top tier through fluky home run or BABIP rates. He is still very much in the discussion for the top second baseman overall. Owners shouldn't expect Ben Zobrist to revert back to his 2009 form, when he improbably hit eight line drive homers, but given his strong BB/K history and last season's sustainable BABIP and home run per flyball (HR/FB) rates, a repeat of 2011 is highly likely. That really puts Zobrist in a mini-tier by himself -- call it "1a" -- between Kinsler and Rickie Weeks. Further down in the second tier, I like Howard Kendrick for his emerging power, but he does put up abysmal walk rates. If last season's 18 homers prove to be a fluke, Kendrick has little to fall back on to prop up his value.
First tier: Dustin Pedroia, Robinson Cano, Ian Kinsler.
Second tier: Ben Zobrist, Rickie Weeks, Dan Uggla, Brandon Phillips, Howard Kendrick, Dustin Ackley.
Third tier: Chase Utley, Jemile Weeks, Neil Walker, Ryan Roberts.
Last call for standard mixed leagues: Kelly Johnson, Danny Espinosa, Aaron Hill, Jason Kipnis, Omar Infante, Daniel Murphy.
For deeper leagues only: Johnny Giavotella, Jose Altuve, Ryan Raburn, Tyler Greene, Orlando Hudson, Gordon Beckham, Freddy Sanchez, Mike Aviles, Darwin Barney, Alexi Casilla, Mark Ellis, Jamey Carroll.

Third Basemen

Overview: Jose Bautista doesn't just blow away the field with his power, as he is far and away the best of the top options in terms of BB/K ratio. After Bautista and Evan Longoria is a crowded second tier, loaded with players who practically ooze risk. Kevin Youkilis is no exception, as he has played in no more than 136 games in any of the last three seasons. A sports hernia and hip bursitis sapped Youkilis' power last season, but he is reportedly healthy again this spring. He could easily surprise owners with his first 25-plus homer season since 2009, and meanwhile, he continues to live up to his "Greek God of Walks" moniker. With Youkilis going after Adrian Beltre, Ryan Zimmerman, David Wright, Brett Lawrie and Alex Rodriguez in many leagues, it could pay huge dividends to wait out much of the second tier to land him.
First tier: Jose Bautista, Evan Longoria.
Second tier: Adrian Beltre, Ryan Zimmerman, David Wright, Kevin Youkilis, Brett Lawrie, Pablo Sandoval, Michael Young.
Third tier: Alex Rodriguez, Mark Reynolds, Aramis Ramirez, Emilio Bonifacio, Ryan Roberts, Martin Prado.
Last call for standard mixed leagues: Mike Moustakas, Chase Headley, Danny Valencia, Edwin Encarnacion, Mat Gamel, David Freese.
For deeper leagues only: Placido Polanco, Chipper Jones, Lonnie Chisenhall, Daniel Murphy, Chris Davis, Ian Stewart, Scott Rolen, Wilson Betemit, Brent Morel, Pedro Alvarez, Mike Aviles, Alberto Callaspo, Jimmy Paredes, Chone Figgins, Juan Uribe, Casey Blake, Jack Hannahan.

Shortstops

Overview: More than any other position, it's useful to have a handle on who has good strike zone recognition among shortstops. Frankly, there aren't many choosy hitters among the bunch. Jose Reyes, Troy Tulowitzki and Hanley Ramirez all rank fairly high in BB/K ratio at the position, which further bolsters their position as elites. Further down the tiers, Jimmy Rollins stands out as a strong contact hitter with good walk rates, which has helped him to maintain his value in the face of fluctuating popup rates. While the younger Starlin Castro and Asdrubal Cabrera have had more allure for owners in this year's drafts, Rollins could outproduce both of them more well-placed flyballs. In fact, Castro's low walk rates could render him a huge disappointment, especially if his path towards stardom takes an unexpected detour (which often happens to hitters in their early 20s). Down in the "last call" category, highly selective Yunel Escobar and Marco Scutaro offer some safety, while Jhonny Peralta's mediocre batting eye makes him a risk to keep his rebound from 2011 going. His bounce-back was fueled largely by an inflated .333 BABIP, not by improved contact skills.
First tier: Troy Tulowitzki, Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes.
Second tier: Starlin Castro, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jimmy Rollins.
Third tier: Elvis Andrus, Emilio Bonifacio, Derek Jeter, Erick Aybar, Alexei Ramirez.
Last call for standard mixed leagues: Jhonny Peralta, Yunel Escobar, J.J. Hardy, Dee Gordon, Alcides Escobar, Marco Scutaro, Zack Cozart.
For deeper leagues only: Stephen Drew, Rafael Furcal, Jed Lowrie, Ian Desmond, Cliff Pennington, Jason Bartlett, Eduardo Nunez, Clint Barmes, Tyler Pastornicky, Alexi Casilla, Alex Gonzalez, Tyler Greene, Brendan Ryan, Jamey Carroll, Ruben Tejada, Sean Rodriguez, Brandon Crawford.

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Outfielders

Overview: For many owners, it's no longer a new discovery that the pool of high-end outfielders is drying up in Fantasy. That makes the occupants of the first two tiers all the more valuable. Once the top options for your No. 1 outfielder become unavailable, Andrew McCutchen and Matt Holliday are worth a long look due to their high BB/K ratios. Holliday is an especially good target, as he is falling to the fourth round or later in many leagues, yet his 6.9 Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) was not much different from that of Justin Upton (7.2) and Carlos Gonzalez (6.9) last season. Shane Victorino, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Lee, Coco Crisp and Nick Markakis are others who deserve at least a slight upgrade due to their selective approaches, while Jeff Francoeur, Adam Jones and Delmon Young are especially vulnerable to their success being built on favorable statistical fluctuations, as all historically have posted poor BB/K ratios.
First tier: Jose Bautista, Matt Kemp, Ryan Braun, Jacoby Ellsbury, Curtis Granderson.
Second tier: Justin Upton, Carlos Gonzalez, Andrew McCutchen, Josh Hamilton, Giancarlo Stanton, Matt Holliday.
Third tier: Shane Victorino, Carl Crawford, Michael Bourn, Ben Zobrist, Shin-Soo Choo, Lance Berkman.
Fourth tier: Andre Ethier, Hunter Pence, Nelson Cruz, Desmond Jennings, Chris Young, Jay Bruce, Ichiro Suzuki, Corey Hart, Alex Gordon, Michael Morse, Nick Markakis.
Fifth tier: B.J. Upton, Brett Gardner, Adam Jones, Drew Stubbs, Jason Heyward, Martin Prado, Emilio Bonifacio, Howard Kendrick, Jayson Werth, Melky Cabrera, Austin Jackson, Michael Cuddyer, Nick Swisher, Logan Morrison.
Sixth tier: Cameron Maybin, Coco Crisp, Jeff Francoeur, Angel Pagan, Jose Tabata, Peter Bourjos, Carlos Beltran.
Last call for standard mixed leagues: Delmon Young, Brennan Boesch, Matt Joyce, Lorenzo Cain, Yonder Alonso, Josh Willingham, Jason Kubel, Carlos Lee, Lucas Duda, Torii Hunter, Eric Thames, Alex Rios, Carlos Quentin, J.D. Martinez, Alejandro De Aza, Dexter Fowler, Brandon Belt.
Noteworthy deeper league options: Dayan Viciedo, Bobby Abreu, Alex Presley, Vernon Wells, John Mayberry, Michael Brantley, Nyjer Morgan, Jason Bay, Allen Craig, Will Venable, Nolan Reimold, David DeJesus, Colby Rasmus, Andres Torres, Alfonso Soriano, Denard Span, Ryan Ludwick, Rajai Davis, Ben Revere, Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, Jon Jay, Franklin Gutierrez.

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Player News
Mariners OF Kyle Seager slugs third home run of season Wednesday
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(1:45 am ET) Mariners third baseman Kyle Seager connected on his third home run of the season during Wednesday's 4-3 loss to the Angels.

The two-run home run was hit of Mariners starter Roenis Elias in the fourth inning. Seager also added a double later in the game to finish 2 for 4. It was his first multi-hit game since April 26. He is now hitting .255 on the season.


Angels' Johnny Giavotella hits walk-off double Wednesday
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(1:34 am ET) Angels second baseman Johnny Giavotella drove in the winning run during Wednesday's 4-3 win over the Mariners.

With the game tied at 3-3 in bottom of the ninth inning, Giavotella hit a double to drive in Erick Aybar for the game-winning run. The double was Giavotella's only hit in four at-bats during the game. He has now hit safely in three-consecutive games.


Angels' Mike Trout smacks seventh home run of season Wednesday
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(1:30 am ET) Angels outfielder Mike Trout connected on his seventh home run of the season to help lead the Angels to a 4-3 win over the Mariners on Wednesday.

The two-run home run occurred in the third inning and was hit off Mariners starter Roenis Elias. It was Trout's lone hit in four at-bats during the game. Trout is now hitting .300 on the season


Mariners P Roenis Elias receives no-decision during Wednesday's game
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(1:08 am ET) Despite a solid seven innings of work, Mariners pitcher Roenis Elias was not able to earn a win during Wednesday's 4-3 loss to the Angels.

Elias surrendered three runs on six hits over seven innings. He also struck out five and walked one. His biggest mistake came in the third inning when he gave up a two-run home run to Mike Trout and he received a no-decision for his effort.

Elias is now 0-1 with a 3.86 ERA on the season. It was his third-consecutive start allowing three runs or less.

His next expected start is scheduled for Wednesday against the Padres.


Angels P C.J. Wilson earns quality start in Wednesday's game
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(12:59 am ET) Angels pitcher C.J. Wilson failed to earn a win during Wednesday's 4-3 victory over the Mariners, but he did receive a quality start for his effort.

Street tossed seven solid innings of work after giving up two runs on seven hits. He also struck out four batters and walked none. His lone mistake was a two-run home run to Kyle Seager in the fourth inning. He lowered his ERA to 2.70.

Wilson was in line for the win during the game, but closer Huston Street was not able to close the game in the ninth. The Angels won the game on a walk-off double from Johnny Giavotella.

Wilson's next expected start is scheduled for Tuesday against the Rockies.


Angels P Huston Street blows first game of season Wednesday
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(12:51 am ET) Angels pitcher Huston Street was unable to convert his 10th save of the season during Wednesday's 4-3 win over the Mariners.

Street entered the ninth inning with a one-run lead, but he surrendered two hits to open the inning, which led to Dustin Ackley driving in the tying run on a sacrifice fly. It was his first blown save of the season in 10 opportunities. 

Despite blowing the save, Street picked up the win when the Angels won the game in the bottom of the ninth inning. Street is now 2-0 with a 1.64 ERA on the season.


Royals DH Kendrys Morales homers in loss to Indians
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(12:50 am ET) Royals designated hitter Kendrys Morales hit his fourth home run of the season in Wednesday night's 10-3 loss to the Indians. 

Morales homered in the bottom of the fourth inning, which also brought home Lorenzo Cain. The homer didn't matter much as the Indians blew out the Royals in the end. Morales finished the game 1 of 3 and struck out in two other at-bats. He also drew a walk. 

He's now hitting .306/.364/.486 for the season. 


Indians' Brandon Moss hits fifth home run in win over Royals
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(12:46 am ET) Indians outfielder Brandon Moss hit his fifth home run of the season in the ninth inning of Wednesday night's 10-3 win over the Royals. 

Moss took a 2-1 pitch to deep right field for the solo homer. He finished the game 2 of 5 with three RBI. The other two RBI he recorded came on a double to right field in the seventh inning. 

Moss is now hitting .241/.298/.506 this season. 


Indians rough up Royals P Danny Duffy in first inning
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(12:42 am ET) Royals pitcher Danny Duffy had a disastrous start in Wednesday night's 10-3 loss to the Indians. 

Duffy only lasted one inning and allowed four earned runs on six hits. He didn't record any strikeouts and didn't walk anyone. This is his first loss of the season as he's now 2-1. Duffy's ERA is 3.86. 

Duffy's next start is projected for May 11 against the Rangers. 


Indians P Carlos Carrasco strikes out 6 against Royals
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(12:39 am ET) Indians pitcher Carlos Carrasco struck out six batters during Wednesday night's 10-3 win over the Royals. 

Carrasco went seven innings and allowed three earned runs. Carrasco threw 98 pitches, gave up five hits and walked two batters. He improved to 4-2 and now has an ERA of 4.71 this season. 

Carrasco's next start is projected for May 12 against the Cardinals. 


 
 
 
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