Forgot Log-in or  Password? |  Help  Not a member, Register Now!
      
Fantasy Football Today
Fantasy Football Today Blog
Gameday Inactives
2014 Draft Prep Guide
Downloadable Draft Kit
Mock Drafts
Get Your Draft Board
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Scores
Fantasy Games
Playoff Challenge
Commissioner
Prize Leagues
Free
Office Pool Manager
Game Pick'em
Player Challenge
Fantasy Baseball Today
Fantasy Baseball Today Blog
2015 Draft Prep Guide
Mock Drafts
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Rankings
Projections
Schedules
Probable Pitchers
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injuries
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Message Boards
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Downloadable Draft Kit
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
No Fantasy Teams Found
 
 
 

2012 Draft Prep: ADP movers and shakers

Senior Fantasy Writer
  •  

I suppose you can call it "hype adjustment," or, on the flip side, "overlook correction" -- the phenomenon where drafters take a look at the wisdom of the crowds and decide there's actually not much wisdom there, after all.

We're seeing it on a daily basis, as a handful of players are making moves up and down the Average Draft Position boards; which is an amazingly impressive feat, considering the huge number of drafts being run on CBSSports.com. (Think of it like changing your batting average after five years of baseball -- it takes more than a few hits to really move it). Some moves make sense; others deserve a deeper look.

Don't Just Play, Play to Win!
Fantasy Baseball Today Be sure to catch Fantasy Baseball 360 LIVE at 5 p.m. ET every weekday to dominate your Fantasy leagues. Our writers will have the latest news, analysis and roster trends each afternoon.
Fantasy Baseball TodayCheck out the latest episode!

But as draft season kicks into high gear and the stakes rise from "doing a quick mock" to "these are the players I will care for more deeply than some family members over the next six months," the weight of the picks has increased, and, in turn, ADPs are seeing some shifts. We give two sets of ADPs here at CBSSports.com -- one for H2H points leagues and another for traditional Rotisserie leagues. Some of the players that stick out in each include ...

Head-to-Head ( Current H2H Draft Averages )

Edwin Jackson, SP, Nationals (+2; 201 to 199)
I think as we get closer to the season -- or, perhaps, even in the season -- people are going to realize just how good this Washington pitching staff is. Most of the preseason Fantasy attention has been focused on Stephen Strasburg, but the pitchers lining up behind him -- Jordan Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez and Edwin Jackson -- form a top four that could, on their better days, admirably go to battle with almost any staff in the majors. Jackson's last start was a mess (four earned runs in four innings), which would normally drop him down a couple slots, but I think drafters are slowly coming to realize that Jackson could be an asset to their staffs. The boost also brings Jackson into the top 200 in ADP.

Matt Capps, RP, Twins (-4; 241 to 245)
Capps has given up one run in all of spring training and has shown no indication in the last few days that he'll have another rocky season full of points-reducing blown saves ahead of him. And the man presumably next in line, Glen Perkins, is nowhere to be found on the ADP list. So why the sudden drop? In H2H leagues, Capps will lose value with every blown save, and he's not going to strike out a batter per inning. But both Minnesota and Capps have a pretty solid history with saves. So if Capps keeps sinking in ADPs, he becomes more of a value pick.

David Ortiz, DH, Red Sox (-2; 96 to 98)
Ortiz is only eligible to use at the utility/DH spot, which already puts a bit of a dent in his value. But he's also been pretty cold in spring training as of late, not having homered since March 9 (he has two so far this spring) and striking out six times against two walks. He's a perennial slow starter and doesn't have the greatest track record in spring training over his career (OPS is .761), but drafters may now be plucking up options outside of Ortiz to use in their utility spots (Jesus Montero, for instance, is a younger, more-dynamic DH-only option).

Chris Davis, 1B, Orioles (+3; 325 to 322)
Davis is a really peculiar case, considering one of his major drawbacks is strikeouts, which are going to hurt you in standard H2H leagues. His uptick in ADP might be just a case of people realizing that his grip on the starting first base job in Baltimore is strengthening on the back of a four-game hitting streak (as of Wednesday) that brought his spring average up to .281. Still, eight strikeouts to one walk so far is not a pretty ratio in points leagues.

Rotisserie ( Current Roto Draft Averages )

Chris Davis, 1B, Orioles (-3; from 297 to 300)
In light of Davis' inexplicable rise on the H2H side is his similarly inexplicable drop in Rotisserie leagues. This should be the opposite -- you can dismiss his strikeouts in Roto leagues because they don't count against you (directly). But his rise and fall are backwards. In H2H, you'd want to steer clear, in Roto leagues, you want to ride his power.

Check out our Fantasy Baseball podcast!
Stay a step ahead of your competition in 2014 by checking out our popular Fantasy Baseball Today podcasts. Adam Aizer, Scott White and Al Melchior will entertain you and help you dominate all season.
Latest episode | Subscribe!

Jayson Werth, OF, Nationals (-2; from 123 to 125)
Werth is a great candidate to have a bounceback year in 2012. Ask anyone how many homers he hit last season, and they'd probably guess about 15. But he hit 20. And he threw in 19 steals. Granted, 2011 was a drop-off, overall, from his previous two seasons, but I think people perceive Werth as having had a much worse year, at least in terms of power (his .232 average was the lowest since he was a rookie, and he took a lot of unnecessary shots for the monster contract he signed in the offseason). So far this spring Werth is hitting .286 with two home runs and a 1.089 OPS. Even with the Nationals sending Bryce Harper down to Syracuse on Sunday, Werth still dropped two spots in ADP rankings.

Johan Santana, SP, Mets (+2; from 230 to 228)
I don't think Santana is done with his rise. Owners had kind of put him on the backburner and assumed he'd be back to full strength later in the season. Pessimists assumed his velocity would never be the same and we'd have to temper expectations. We still may have to look at him in a new light, but Santana has at least taken steps in proving he's durable and should be ready for the start of the season. After two encouraging appearances at the beginning of spring, Santana was roughed up by the Tigers on March 16 and saw his ERA balloon to 4.91. But, on Wednesday, he mowed down the Cardinals, giving up just one run in six innings while striking out six batters. It was a welcome development, as he had just two strikeouts in all of spring before the game. He's being taken so low in drafts that even if his K rate drops again and his ERA runs higher than his current 3.38, the fact that he is pitching -- without complication -- should move him up several more slots before opening day, regardless of his performance between then and now.

Ivan Nova, SP, Yankees (-4; from 245 to 249)
The Andy Pettitte Effect! Even though Nova had a wonderful rookie campaign in 2011, it looks like the general consensus is that Pettitte's signing will drop Nova to ... somewhere (the bullpen? Another team?). He's slipping down draft boards and it doesn't look like Phil Hughes or Michael Pineda are getting the same treatment -- Hughes has dropped just one slot, from 289 to 290, while Pineda has actually jumped up a slot, moving from 80 to 79. Nova hasn't exactly helped to soothe the fears of potential drafters, either, putting up a 7.82 ERA so far this spring, giving up four home runs and allowing five earned runs in two separate games.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyBB or Nando Di Fino at @NandoCBS . You can also send our staff an e-mail at fantasybaseball@cbsinteractive.com .

Get player news notifications, manage your team and check scores
- all updated in real time. Download the CBS Fantasy App.

  •  
 
CBSSports Facebook Google Plus
COMMENTS
Conversation powered by Livefyre
 
 
Player News
Mets' Michael Cuddyer snaps slump with two hits
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(1:00 am ET) Mets first baseman Michael Cuddyer went 2 for 4 with a run scored in Monday's win over San Francisco. 

Cuddyer snapped a deep slump that has lasted since June 20. He was 0 for his last 11, 1 for his last 21 and 2 for his last 36. 

Cuddyer had his first multi-hit game since June 19.


Mets' Johnny Monell doubles season RBI total
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(12:57 am ET) Mets backup catcher Johnny Monell had two RBI in Monday's win over San Francisco. Monell doubled his season RBI total, with his first runs batted in since May 10. 

Monell hit his first double since May 10 and went 1 for 4, hitting in his third straight game. 


Giants' Joaquin Arias gets two hits in loss
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(12:54 am ET) Giants shortstop Joaquin Arias went 2 for 3 in Monday's loss to the Mets. 

Arias got his first hit since June 23 and his first multi-hit game than April 28. 

Arias had two of the Giants' three hits in the shutout loss. 


Jeurys Familia earns save for Mets
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(12:51 am ET) Mets closer Jeurys Familia stated his case for an All Star berth with his 23rd save of the year on Monday. 

After being named one of five candidates for the Final Vote for an All Star roster spot, Familia pitched a perfect ninth inning to protect a three run lead. 

Familia turned in his seventh straight scoreless outing. 


Giants' Sergio Romo drops to 0-4 with loss
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(12:48 am ET) Giants reliever Sergio Romo gave up two runs in 1/3 of an inning to take the loss against the Mets on Monday. 

Romo dropped to 0-4 on the year. He gave up runs for the second straight game and third time in the last four outings.

Romo gave up hits to two of the three batters he faced. 


Giants' Chris Heston has 7 1/3 innings in no-decision
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(12:45 am ET) Giants starter Chris Heston turned in 7 1/3 shutout innings, allowing three hits. 

Heston turned in his best performance since his no-hitter, five starts ago. He left with the score tied and settled for a no-decision. 

Heston walked four and struck out two. 


Mets' Jonathon Niese snaps six-decision losing streak
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(12:42 am ET) Mets starter Jonathon Niese earned a win over San Francisco on Monday, improving to 4-8 on the season. 

Niese snapped a personal six-decision losing streak and won for the first time since May 9. 

Niese turned in a season-high eight shutout innings and allowed a season-low three hits. He walked two and struck out four. 


Cardinals' Randal Grichuk snaps slump with two RBI
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(12:34 am ET) Cardinals left fielder Randal Grichuk went 1 for 4 with a double in Monday's win over the Cubs. 

Grichuk snapped a 16 at bat hitless streak spanning the last five games. His two runs batted in were the first in six games. 

Grichuk had his 13th double and 23rd RBI of the year. 


Jorge Soler gets two hits for Cubs
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(12:31 am ET) Cubs right fielder Jorge Soler went 2 for 3 in Monday's loss to St. Louis. 

Soler had one third of the Cubs' hits in the shutout loss, and his double was the team's only extra base hit. 

Soler snapped an 11 at bat hitless stretch and matched the number of hits he'd had in his previous five games.


Cubs' Jon Lester takes loss but gets base hit
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(12:28 am ET) Cubs starter Jon Lester lost his fifth straight decision, Monday against St. Louis. 

Lester dropped to 4-7 and hasn't won since May 16. 

Lester didn't allow an earned run, the fourth time in the last five starts that he's allowed one earned run or fewer. He has three no-decisions and a loss in those four games. 

Lester surrendered two unearned runs in seven innings. He allowed a season-low two hits and struck out eight, carrying a no-hitter into the seventh.

At the plate, Lester managed to get a single, his first base hit in 67 career at bats.  


 
 
 
Rankings