Forgot Log-in or  Password? |  Help  Not a member, Register Now!
Play Fantasy The Most Award Winning Fantasy game with real time scoring, top expert analysis, custom settings, and more. Play Now
      
Fantasy Football Today
2014 Draft Prep Guide
Gameday Inactives
Downloadable Draft Kit
Mock Drafts
Get Your Draft Board
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Red Zone Stats
Teams
Schedules
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Playoff Challenge
Commissioner
Prize Leagues
Free
Office Pool Manager
Game Pick'em
Player Challenge
Fantasy Baseball Today
2014 Draft Prep Guide
Downloadable Draft Kit
Mock Drafts
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Rankings
Projections
Teams
Schedules
Probable Pitchers
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injuries
Projections
Rankings
Teams
Schedules
Message Boards
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Teams
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Downloadable Draft Kit
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Teams
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
No Fantasy Teams Found
 
 
 

2012 Draft Prep: ADP movers and shakers

Senior Fantasy Writer
  •  

I suppose you can call it "hype adjustment," or, on the flip side, "overlook correction" -- the phenomenon where drafters take a look at the wisdom of the crowds and decide there's actually not much wisdom there, after all.

We're seeing it on a daily basis, as a handful of players are making moves up and down the Average Draft Position boards; which is an amazingly impressive feat, considering the huge number of drafts being run on CBSSports.com. (Think of it like changing your batting average after five years of baseball -- it takes more than a few hits to really move it). Some moves make sense; others deserve a deeper look.

Don't Just Play, Play to Win!
Fantasy Baseball Today Be sure to catch Fantasy Baseball 360 LIVE at 5 p.m. ET every weekday to dominate your Fantasy leagues. Our writers will have the latest news, analysis and roster trends each afternoon.
Fantasy Baseball TodayCheck out the latest episode!

But as draft season kicks into high gear and the stakes rise from "doing a quick mock" to "these are the players I will care for more deeply than some family members over the next six months," the weight of the picks has increased, and, in turn, ADPs are seeing some shifts. We give two sets of ADPs here at CBSSports.com -- one for H2H points leagues and another for traditional Rotisserie leagues. Some of the players that stick out in each include ...

Head-to-Head ( Current H2H Draft Averages )

Edwin Jackson, SP, Nationals (+2; 201 to 199)
I think as we get closer to the season -- or, perhaps, even in the season -- people are going to realize just how good this Washington pitching staff is. Most of the preseason Fantasy attention has been focused on Stephen Strasburg, but the pitchers lining up behind him -- Jordan Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez and Edwin Jackson -- form a top four that could, on their better days, admirably go to battle with almost any staff in the majors. Jackson's last start was a mess (four earned runs in four innings), which would normally drop him down a couple slots, but I think drafters are slowly coming to realize that Jackson could be an asset to their staffs. The boost also brings Jackson into the top 200 in ADP.

Matt Capps, RP, Twins (-4; 241 to 245)
Capps has given up one run in all of spring training and has shown no indication in the last few days that he'll have another rocky season full of points-reducing blown saves ahead of him. And the man presumably next in line, Glen Perkins, is nowhere to be found on the ADP list. So why the sudden drop? In H2H leagues, Capps will lose value with every blown save, and he's not going to strike out a batter per inning. But both Minnesota and Capps have a pretty solid history with saves. So if Capps keeps sinking in ADPs, he becomes more of a value pick.

David Ortiz, DH, Red Sox (-2; 96 to 98)
Ortiz is only eligible to use at the utility/DH spot, which already puts a bit of a dent in his value. But he's also been pretty cold in spring training as of late, not having homered since March 9 (he has two so far this spring) and striking out six times against two walks. He's a perennial slow starter and doesn't have the greatest track record in spring training over his career (OPS is .761), but drafters may now be plucking up options outside of Ortiz to use in their utility spots (Jesus Montero, for instance, is a younger, more-dynamic DH-only option).

Chris Davis, 1B, Orioles (+3; 325 to 322)
Davis is a really peculiar case, considering one of his major drawbacks is strikeouts, which are going to hurt you in standard H2H leagues. His uptick in ADP might be just a case of people realizing that his grip on the starting first base job in Baltimore is strengthening on the back of a four-game hitting streak (as of Wednesday) that brought his spring average up to .281. Still, eight strikeouts to one walk so far is not a pretty ratio in points leagues.

Rotisserie ( Current Roto Draft Averages )

Chris Davis, 1B, Orioles (-3; from 297 to 300)
In light of Davis' inexplicable rise on the H2H side is his similarly inexplicable drop in Rotisserie leagues. This should be the opposite -- you can dismiss his strikeouts in Roto leagues because they don't count against you (directly). But his rise and fall are backwards. In H2H, you'd want to steer clear, in Roto leagues, you want to ride his power.

Check out our Fantasy Baseball podcast!
Stay a step ahead of your competition in 2014 by checking out our popular Fantasy Baseball Today podcasts. Adam Aizer, Scott White and Al Melchior will entertain you and help you dominate all season.
Latest episode | Subscribe!

Jayson Werth, OF, Nationals (-2; from 123 to 125)
Werth is a great candidate to have a bounceback year in 2012. Ask anyone how many homers he hit last season, and they'd probably guess about 15. But he hit 20. And he threw in 19 steals. Granted, 2011 was a drop-off, overall, from his previous two seasons, but I think people perceive Werth as having had a much worse year, at least in terms of power (his .232 average was the lowest since he was a rookie, and he took a lot of unnecessary shots for the monster contract he signed in the offseason). So far this spring Werth is hitting .286 with two home runs and a 1.089 OPS. Even with the Nationals sending Bryce Harper down to Syracuse on Sunday, Werth still dropped two spots in ADP rankings.

Johan Santana, SP, Mets (+2; from 230 to 228)
I don't think Santana is done with his rise. Owners had kind of put him on the backburner and assumed he'd be back to full strength later in the season. Pessimists assumed his velocity would never be the same and we'd have to temper expectations. We still may have to look at him in a new light, but Santana has at least taken steps in proving he's durable and should be ready for the start of the season. After two encouraging appearances at the beginning of spring, Santana was roughed up by the Tigers on March 16 and saw his ERA balloon to 4.91. But, on Wednesday, he mowed down the Cardinals, giving up just one run in six innings while striking out six batters. It was a welcome development, as he had just two strikeouts in all of spring before the game. He's being taken so low in drafts that even if his K rate drops again and his ERA runs higher than his current 3.38, the fact that he is pitching -- without complication -- should move him up several more slots before opening day, regardless of his performance between then and now.

Ivan Nova, SP, Yankees (-4; from 245 to 249)
The Andy Pettitte Effect! Even though Nova had a wonderful rookie campaign in 2011, it looks like the general consensus is that Pettitte's signing will drop Nova to ... somewhere (the bullpen? Another team?). He's slipping down draft boards and it doesn't look like Phil Hughes or Michael Pineda are getting the same treatment -- Hughes has dropped just one slot, from 289 to 290, while Pineda has actually jumped up a slot, moving from 80 to 79. Nova hasn't exactly helped to soothe the fears of potential drafters, either, putting up a 7.82 ERA so far this spring, giving up four home runs and allowing five earned runs in two separate games.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyBB or Nando Di Fino at @NandoCBS . You can also send our staff an e-mail at fantasybaseball@cbsinteractive.com .

Want an edge in your draft? Download the Fantasy Draft Kit App.

  •  
 
 
CBSSports Facebook Google Plus
COMMENTS
Conversation powered by Livefyre
 
 
Player News
Hanley Ramirez looking at Sunday return
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(7:34 pm ET) Dodgers infielder Hanley Ramirez is looking at a Sunday return, according to the Los Angeles Times

Ramirez has been sidelined since August 8 due to an oblique injury. Manager Don Mattingly said he expects Ramirez to be good to go Sunday. Ramirez has hit .277/.367/.455 over 354 at-bats. 


Joaquin Benoit believes he'll avoid the disabled list
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(7:31 pm ET) Padres reliever Joaquin Benoit believes he'll avoid a stint on the disabled list, according to the San Diego Union-Tribune.

Benoit was able to throw a bullpen session prior to Thursday's game. He said the session went well, and doesn't think he'll need to spend time on the DL. Benoit has a 1.64 ERA over 49 1/3 innings. 


Garrett Richards potentially still worth keeping
by Scott White | Senior Fantasy Writer
(7:30 pm ET) What a sad day for Garrett Richards and his Fantasy owners. What an unfortunate end to a brilliant season that probably hasn't gotten the pub it deserved.

He was the ace for the best team in baseball at the time of his injury. And because his breakthrough was so unexpected, he was a waiver claim in most Fantasy leagues. With that kind of production at that low of a cost -- and from a dual-eligible pitcher, no less -- you could argue Richards was the most valuable player in Fantasy for the 5 1/2 months he was healthy.

But now, he's not -- and because an injury no one would have expected. We've all learned to brace ourselves for the next torn up elbow, but not knee -- not for a pitcher, anyway -- which means we don't really know what comes next. The timetable for Richards is 6-9 months, which is an extremely wide range. It gives him some hope of returning by opening day but also allows for him to miss up to half the season.

My guess he misses some time -- enough to diminish his keeper value in a league where you keep just a handful of players, and all on equal terms. But if you keep as many as one-third of your players, and you keep them relative to what they cost you, again, given the price tag for Richards coming into the year, I'd hold on to him.


Oliver Perez hit with the loss Thursday
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(7:29 pm ET) Diamondbacks pitcher Oliver Perez was hit with a loss Thursday against the Nationals.

Perez entered a tie game in the eighth inning, and was able to hold the Nationals scoreless for an inning. He came out to start the ninth, but was pulled after giving up a single to Denard Span. Span would steal second against Evan Marshall, and came around to score on a throwing error for the walkoff win. Perez was charged with the run and the loss. He dropped to 2-3.


Salvador Perez's MRI comes back clean
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(7:25 pm ET) An MRI on Royals catcher Salvador Perez came back clean, according to MLB.com.

Perez has been dealing with knee issues, but both he and manager Ned Yost have been adamant the injury is not serious. Perez first complained of tightness Monday, but played in Tuesday's game. He was held out Wednesday, though, and the club decided to send him for an MRI. Perez is hitting .268/.304/.417 over 441 at-bats.


Hyun-Jin Ryu able to throw bullpen session Thursday
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(7:19 pm ET) Dodgers pitcher Hyun-Jin Ryu was able to throw a bullpen session Thursday, according to MLB.com.

Ryu is working his way back from a glut injury. He's not expected to go on a rehab assignment. Ryu has been sidelined since August 13 due to the injury. He has a 3.28 ERA over 137 1/3 innings. 


Rafael Soriano picks up rare win Thursday
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(7:12 pm ET) Nationals closer Rafael Soriano picked up a rare win Thursday against the Diamondbacks. 

Soriano entered with the game tied, and was able to get through the inning without giving up any runs. He did issue a walk, but worked out of trouble with an inning-ending double play. Soriano was the beneficiary of the Nationals hot stretch. In the bottom of the inning, the Nats were able to mount a comeback, scoring on a throwing error to end the game. With the win, Soriano improved to 4-1. 


More reason to like Steve Pearce again
by Scott White | Senior Fantasy Writer
(7:10 pm ET) I've wondered allowed if Steve Pearce's recent turnaround could be a sign of things to come and more than once compared him to Brandon Moss, thinking he could be another late-bloomer if only he'd get the chance.

Based on what CBSSports.com Baseball Insider Jon Heyman said on Thursday's Fantasy Baseball Today, he absolutely will.

The video goes into more detail, of course, but to summarize, the Orioles really like Pearce. They believe in him, which doesn't explain the way they used him in July, but whatever, it's a new month.

Considering he hit .336 with a 1.003 OPS over a two-month span earlier this season and .294 with an .893 over nine minor-league seasons, I'm willing to take a flier on him if I need a corner infielder or a late-season power boost.


Gio Gonzalez tosses fantastic start, but can't win
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(7:07 pm ET) Nationals pitcher Gio Gonzalez turned in a fantastic start Thursday against the Diamondbacks. 

Gonzalez allowed four hits over seven scoreless innings. He struck out six and walked three during the outing. Gonzalez did a good job limiting the Diamondbacks early. He was able to get through the first two innings by facing the minimum six batters. He did allow a hit in the second, but got out of it with a double-play. Gonzalez was also challenged in the third, putting the first two men on. After a sac bunt moved them into scoring position, Gonzalez was able to keep them from scoring. He loaded the bases in the fifth inning, but was able to get Cliff Pennington to pop out to end the threat. 

Gonzalez was matched by Wade Miley throughout the start, and ultimately wound up with a no-decision. He'll take on the Phillies in his next start.


Wade Miley struggles with control, but manages good start
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(7:02 pm ET) Diamondbacks pitcher Wade Miley struggled with his control Thursday, but still managed a strong start.

Miley allowed eight hits over 6 2/3 scoreless innings. He struck out four and walked six during the outing. Wiley worked his way out of trouble a number of times during the game. The Nationals put two men on base in each of the first three innings, but Miley kept them from scoring. Miley was able to pitch out of a bases-loaded situation in the fifth, striking out Adam LaRoche. He again escaped the sixth after putting two men on base. 

Miley went up against Gio Gonzalez, who kept Arizona off the scoreboard. Miley picked up a no-decision for his efforts. He’ll take on the Dodgers in his next start.


 
 
 
Rankings