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2012 Draft Prep: ADP movers and shakers

Senior Fantasy Writer
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I suppose you can call it "hype adjustment," or, on the flip side, "overlook correction" -- the phenomenon where drafters take a look at the wisdom of the crowds and decide there's actually not much wisdom there, after all.

We're seeing it on a daily basis, as a handful of players are making moves up and down the Average Draft Position boards; which is an amazingly impressive feat, considering the huge number of drafts being run on CBSSports.com. (Think of it like changing your batting average after five years of baseball -- it takes more than a few hits to really move it). Some moves make sense; others deserve a deeper look.

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But as draft season kicks into high gear and the stakes rise from "doing a quick mock" to "these are the players I will care for more deeply than some family members over the next six months," the weight of the picks has increased, and, in turn, ADPs are seeing some shifts. We give two sets of ADPs here at CBSSports.com -- one for H2H points leagues and another for traditional Rotisserie leagues. Some of the players that stick out in each include ...

Head-to-Head ( Current H2H Draft Averages )

Edwin Jackson, SP, Nationals (+2; 201 to 199)
I think as we get closer to the season -- or, perhaps, even in the season -- people are going to realize just how good this Washington pitching staff is. Most of the preseason Fantasy attention has been focused on Stephen Strasburg, but the pitchers lining up behind him -- Jordan Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez and Edwin Jackson -- form a top four that could, on their better days, admirably go to battle with almost any staff in the majors. Jackson's last start was a mess (four earned runs in four innings), which would normally drop him down a couple slots, but I think drafters are slowly coming to realize that Jackson could be an asset to their staffs. The boost also brings Jackson into the top 200 in ADP.

Matt Capps, RP, Twins (-4; 241 to 245)
Capps has given up one run in all of spring training and has shown no indication in the last few days that he'll have another rocky season full of points-reducing blown saves ahead of him. And the man presumably next in line, Glen Perkins, is nowhere to be found on the ADP list. So why the sudden drop? In H2H leagues, Capps will lose value with every blown save, and he's not going to strike out a batter per inning. But both Minnesota and Capps have a pretty solid history with saves. So if Capps keeps sinking in ADPs, he becomes more of a value pick.

David Ortiz, DH, Red Sox (-2; 96 to 98)
Ortiz is only eligible to use at the utility/DH spot, which already puts a bit of a dent in his value. But he's also been pretty cold in spring training as of late, not having homered since March 9 (he has two so far this spring) and striking out six times against two walks. He's a perennial slow starter and doesn't have the greatest track record in spring training over his career (OPS is .761), but drafters may now be plucking up options outside of Ortiz to use in their utility spots (Jesus Montero, for instance, is a younger, more-dynamic DH-only option).

Chris Davis, 1B, Orioles (+3; 325 to 322)
Davis is a really peculiar case, considering one of his major drawbacks is strikeouts, which are going to hurt you in standard H2H leagues. His uptick in ADP might be just a case of people realizing that his grip on the starting first base job in Baltimore is strengthening on the back of a four-game hitting streak (as of Wednesday) that brought his spring average up to .281. Still, eight strikeouts to one walk so far is not a pretty ratio in points leagues.

Rotisserie ( Current Roto Draft Averages )

Chris Davis, 1B, Orioles (-3; from 297 to 300)
In light of Davis' inexplicable rise on the H2H side is his similarly inexplicable drop in Rotisserie leagues. This should be the opposite -- you can dismiss his strikeouts in Roto leagues because they don't count against you (directly). But his rise and fall are backwards. In H2H, you'd want to steer clear, in Roto leagues, you want to ride his power.

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Jayson Werth, OF, Nationals (-2; from 123 to 125)
Werth is a great candidate to have a bounceback year in 2012. Ask anyone how many homers he hit last season, and they'd probably guess about 15. But he hit 20. And he threw in 19 steals. Granted, 2011 was a drop-off, overall, from his previous two seasons, but I think people perceive Werth as having had a much worse year, at least in terms of power (his .232 average was the lowest since he was a rookie, and he took a lot of unnecessary shots for the monster contract he signed in the offseason). So far this spring Werth is hitting .286 with two home runs and a 1.089 OPS. Even with the Nationals sending Bryce Harper down to Syracuse on Sunday, Werth still dropped two spots in ADP rankings.

Johan Santana, SP, Mets (+2; from 230 to 228)
I don't think Santana is done with his rise. Owners had kind of put him on the backburner and assumed he'd be back to full strength later in the season. Pessimists assumed his velocity would never be the same and we'd have to temper expectations. We still may have to look at him in a new light, but Santana has at least taken steps in proving he's durable and should be ready for the start of the season. After two encouraging appearances at the beginning of spring, Santana was roughed up by the Tigers on March 16 and saw his ERA balloon to 4.91. But, on Wednesday, he mowed down the Cardinals, giving up just one run in six innings while striking out six batters. It was a welcome development, as he had just two strikeouts in all of spring before the game. He's being taken so low in drafts that even if his K rate drops again and his ERA runs higher than his current 3.38, the fact that he is pitching -- without complication -- should move him up several more slots before opening day, regardless of his performance between then and now.

Ivan Nova, SP, Yankees (-4; from 245 to 249)
The Andy Pettitte Effect! Even though Nova had a wonderful rookie campaign in 2011, it looks like the general consensus is that Pettitte's signing will drop Nova to ... somewhere (the bullpen? Another team?). He's slipping down draft boards and it doesn't look like Phil Hughes or Michael Pineda are getting the same treatment -- Hughes has dropped just one slot, from 289 to 290, while Pineda has actually jumped up a slot, moving from 80 to 79. Nova hasn't exactly helped to soothe the fears of potential drafters, either, putting up a 7.82 ERA so far this spring, giving up four home runs and allowing five earned runs in two separate games.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyBB or Nando Di Fino at @NandoCBS . You can also send our staff an e-mail at fantasybaseball@cbsinteractive.com .

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Player News
Greg Holland slams door shut on Cleveland
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(10:57 pm ET) Royals closer Greg Holland struck out one and needed only 10 pitches to retire the side in order to close out a 2-0 victory over the Indians in Cleveland. He has converted 44 of 46 save chances, with a 1.49 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP over 60 1/3 innings of relief.

Carlos Carrasco goes seven strong in losing effort
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(10:54 pm ET) Indians starter Carlos Carrasco twirled a gem in a losing effort Monday night against Kansas City, dropping to 8-6 on the year. He allowed two runs on seven hits and one walk while striking out nine over 7 1/3 innings of a 2-0 defeat.

Carrasco owns a 2.64 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP over 126 1/3 innings of work. He will make his final start of the regular season Sunday at home against Tampa Bay.


Danny Duffy goes six scoreless in first game back from injury
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(10:45 pm ET) Royals pitcher Danny Duffy turned in an impressive performance Monday night against the Indians in Cleveland, improving to 9-11 on the year. Making his first start back from a left shoulder injury, he allowed six hits and two walks while striking out five over six scoreless innings.

Duffy owns a 2.32 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP over 147 1/3 innings of work. He will make his final start of the regular season on Saturday against the White Sox.


Michael Pineda spins 7 1/3 innings of one-hit ball
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(10:37 pm ET) Yankees pitcher Michael Pineda got back on track with a gem Monday night at home against Baltimore, improving to 4-5 on the year. He allowed one hit and one walk while striking out eight over 7 1/3 scoreless innings of a 5-0 victory.

Pineda owns a 1.93 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP over 12 starts (70 innings). He will look to end the season at .500 on Sunday against the Red Sox in Boston.


Wei-Yin Chen suffers fifth loss of the season
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(10:33 pm ET) Orioles starter Wei-Yin Chen took the loss Monday night against the Yankees in New York, dropping to 16-5 on the year. He allowed four runs -- two earned -- on six hits and two walks while striking out four over six innings of a 5-0 defeat.

Chen owns a 3.56 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP over 30 starts (179 2/3 innings). His final start of the regular season will come Sunday in Toronto.


J.A. Happ gets back on track Monday
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(10:31 pm ET) Blue Jays pitcher J.A. Happ got back on track with a dominant outing Monday night at home against Seattle, improving to 11-10 on the year. He allowed two runs on seven hits and one walk while striking out five over seven innings of a 14-4 victory.

Happ owns a 4.27 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP over 151 2/3 innings of work. He will look to end the year two games over .500 on Sunday at home against Baltimore.


James Paxton gets shelled for nine runs in loss to Toronto
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(10:28 pm ET) Mariners pitcher James Paxton failed to make it past the third inning in a loss to the Blue Jays on Monday, dropping to 6-4 on the year. He coughed up nine runs -- eight earned -- on seven hits and six walks while striking out one over 2 2/3 innings of a 14-4 defeat.

Paxton owns a 3.03 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP over 12 starts (68 1/3 innings). He will make his final start of the regular season on Saturday at home against the Angels.


Kyle Lobstein goes seven strong in loss to White Sox
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(10:22 pm ET) Tigers starting pitcher Kyle Lobstein bounced back with a quality start but was charged with the loss Monday night against the White Sox. He allowed two runs on five hits and one walk while striking out five over seven innings of a 2-0 defeat.

Lobstein owns a 3.38 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP over 34 2/3 innings of work. He will make his final appearance of the regular season Saturday at home against Minnesota.


Jake Petricka converts four-out save
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(10:18 pm ET) White Sox closer Jake Petricka struck out one and retired the final four batters in order for the save Monday night in Detroit. He needed 20 pitches to close out a 2-0 victory. Petricka has converted 14 of 18 save chances, with a 2.75 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP over 72 innings of relief.

Chris Bassitt blanks Tigers
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(10:16 pm ET) White Sox pitcher Chris Bassitt picked up his first career win Monday night against the Tigers in Detroit. He allowed six hits and one walk while striking out three over 7 2/3 scoreless innings of work in a 2-0 victory.

Over his last three starts covering 17 1/3 innings, Bassitt has allowed four earned runs. He owns a 3.65 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP over 24 2/3 innings of work. He will make his final start of the season on Sunday against Kansas City.


 
 
 
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