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2012 Draft Prep: ADP movers and shakers

Senior Fantasy Writer
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I suppose you can call it "hype adjustment," or, on the flip side, "overlook correction" -- the phenomenon where drafters take a look at the wisdom of the crowds and decide there's actually not much wisdom there, after all.

We're seeing it on a daily basis, as a handful of players are making moves up and down the Average Draft Position boards; which is an amazingly impressive feat, considering the huge number of drafts being run on CBSSports.com. (Think of it like changing your batting average after five years of baseball -- it takes more than a few hits to really move it). Some moves make sense; others deserve a deeper look.

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But as draft season kicks into high gear and the stakes rise from "doing a quick mock" to "these are the players I will care for more deeply than some family members over the next six months," the weight of the picks has increased, and, in turn, ADPs are seeing some shifts. We give two sets of ADPs here at CBSSports.com -- one for H2H points leagues and another for traditional Rotisserie leagues. Some of the players that stick out in each include ...

Head-to-Head ( Current H2H Draft Averages )

Edwin Jackson, SP, Nationals (+2; 201 to 199)
I think as we get closer to the season -- or, perhaps, even in the season -- people are going to realize just how good this Washington pitching staff is. Most of the preseason Fantasy attention has been focused on Stephen Strasburg, but the pitchers lining up behind him -- Jordan Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez and Edwin Jackson -- form a top four that could, on their better days, admirably go to battle with almost any staff in the majors. Jackson's last start was a mess (four earned runs in four innings), which would normally drop him down a couple slots, but I think drafters are slowly coming to realize that Jackson could be an asset to their staffs. The boost also brings Jackson into the top 200 in ADP.

Matt Capps, RP, Twins (-4; 241 to 245)
Capps has given up one run in all of spring training and has shown no indication in the last few days that he'll have another rocky season full of points-reducing blown saves ahead of him. And the man presumably next in line, Glen Perkins, is nowhere to be found on the ADP list. So why the sudden drop? In H2H leagues, Capps will lose value with every blown save, and he's not going to strike out a batter per inning. But both Minnesota and Capps have a pretty solid history with saves. So if Capps keeps sinking in ADPs, he becomes more of a value pick.

David Ortiz, DH, Red Sox (-2; 96 to 98)
Ortiz is only eligible to use at the utility/DH spot, which already puts a bit of a dent in his value. But he's also been pretty cold in spring training as of late, not having homered since March 9 (he has two so far this spring) and striking out six times against two walks. He's a perennial slow starter and doesn't have the greatest track record in spring training over his career (OPS is .761), but drafters may now be plucking up options outside of Ortiz to use in their utility spots (Jesus Montero, for instance, is a younger, more-dynamic DH-only option).

Chris Davis, 1B, Orioles (+3; 325 to 322)
Davis is a really peculiar case, considering one of his major drawbacks is strikeouts, which are going to hurt you in standard H2H leagues. His uptick in ADP might be just a case of people realizing that his grip on the starting first base job in Baltimore is strengthening on the back of a four-game hitting streak (as of Wednesday) that brought his spring average up to .281. Still, eight strikeouts to one walk so far is not a pretty ratio in points leagues.

Rotisserie ( Current Roto Draft Averages )

Chris Davis, 1B, Orioles (-3; from 297 to 300)
In light of Davis' inexplicable rise on the H2H side is his similarly inexplicable drop in Rotisserie leagues. This should be the opposite -- you can dismiss his strikeouts in Roto leagues because they don't count against you (directly). But his rise and fall are backwards. In H2H, you'd want to steer clear, in Roto leagues, you want to ride his power.

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Jayson Werth, OF, Nationals (-2; from 123 to 125)
Werth is a great candidate to have a bounceback year in 2012. Ask anyone how many homers he hit last season, and they'd probably guess about 15. But he hit 20. And he threw in 19 steals. Granted, 2011 was a drop-off, overall, from his previous two seasons, but I think people perceive Werth as having had a much worse year, at least in terms of power (his .232 average was the lowest since he was a rookie, and he took a lot of unnecessary shots for the monster contract he signed in the offseason). So far this spring Werth is hitting .286 with two home runs and a 1.089 OPS. Even with the Nationals sending Bryce Harper down to Syracuse on Sunday, Werth still dropped two spots in ADP rankings.

Johan Santana, SP, Mets (+2; from 230 to 228)
I don't think Santana is done with his rise. Owners had kind of put him on the backburner and assumed he'd be back to full strength later in the season. Pessimists assumed his velocity would never be the same and we'd have to temper expectations. We still may have to look at him in a new light, but Santana has at least taken steps in proving he's durable and should be ready for the start of the season. After two encouraging appearances at the beginning of spring, Santana was roughed up by the Tigers on March 16 and saw his ERA balloon to 4.91. But, on Wednesday, he mowed down the Cardinals, giving up just one run in six innings while striking out six batters. It was a welcome development, as he had just two strikeouts in all of spring before the game. He's being taken so low in drafts that even if his K rate drops again and his ERA runs higher than his current 3.38, the fact that he is pitching -- without complication -- should move him up several more slots before opening day, regardless of his performance between then and now.

Ivan Nova, SP, Yankees (-4; from 245 to 249)
The Andy Pettitte Effect! Even though Nova had a wonderful rookie campaign in 2011, it looks like the general consensus is that Pettitte's signing will drop Nova to ... somewhere (the bullpen? Another team?). He's slipping down draft boards and it doesn't look like Phil Hughes or Michael Pineda are getting the same treatment -- Hughes has dropped just one slot, from 289 to 290, while Pineda has actually jumped up a slot, moving from 80 to 79. Nova hasn't exactly helped to soothe the fears of potential drafters, either, putting up a 7.82 ERA so far this spring, giving up four home runs and allowing five earned runs in two separate games.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyBB or Nando Di Fino at @NandoCBS . You can also send our staff an e-mail at fantasybaseball@cbsinteractive.com .

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Player News
Brewers' Eilan Herrera goes deep for first career grand slam
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(11:51 pm ET) Brewers infielder Eilan Herrera went deep for a grand slam in his first game of the season on Tuesday against the Reds. Herrera was one of three players to hit a grand slam on the night, two of them came from Cincinnati players. It marked the fourth time in Major League Baseball history that three grand slams were hit in one game.

Herrera roped a grand slam down the right-field line off Burke Badenhop to cut the Milwaukee's deficit to three runs in the sixth inning. It was his second career home run, and his first since July 5, 2012. He also doubled in a run in the third and finished 2 for 5 with three runs scored, a home run and a career-best five RBI. He is hitting .400 to start the season.


Royals closer Wade Davis nails down save in perfect ninth inning
by Ted Leshinski | Staff Writer
(11:51 pm ET) Royals closer Wade Davis (S,3) locked down a one-run lead in the ninth inning on Tuesday to collect the save against the Indians. 

Davis is 3 for 3 in save opportunities and has not allowed a run in seven innings this season.


Yunel Escobar hits 10th inning walk-off for Nationals
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(11:48 pm ET) Nationals third baseman Yunel Escobar hit the first pitch he saw in the tenth inning for a two-out walk-off home run in Tuesday's 2-1 win over St. Louis. 

Escobar's second home run, both solo shots accounting for his only RBI this year, was his only hit of the day in five at bats. Escobar is now hitting .277. 


Reds 1B Joey Votto registers sixth home run of the season
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(11:47 pm ET) Reds first baseman Joey Votto uncorked his sixth home run of the season during Tuesday night's 16-10 win over the Brewers in Milwaukee.

Votto took Tyler Thornburg deep in the top of the sixth inning for a solo home run. He added a single and reached base three times. He finished 2 for 5 with a walk, three runs scored, a home run and an RBI. He is hitting .377/.492/.792 on the year.


White Sox starter Hector Noesi gets knocked around in defeat
by Ted Leshinski | Staff Writer
(11:46 pm ET) White Sox starter Hector Noesi (0-2) was knocked around for four runs on four hits, including two homers, in 5 2/3 innings Tuesday for a loss to the Indians.

Carlos Santana and David Murphy each provided solo shots for the Indians.

Noesi will go after his first win again on Thursday, April 30, in Minnesota.

Cardinals' Carlos Villanueva suffers first loss of year
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(11:46 pm ET) Cardinals reliever Carlos Villanueva dropped to 1-1 on the season after taking the loss to Pittsburgh on Tuesday. 

Villanueva entered in the tenth inning of a tie game. After striking out the first batter and getting the second to fly out, he allowed a first-pitch walk-off home run to Yunel Escobar. 

Villanueva's ERA is now 3.38 for the season.


Reds SS Zack Cozart smacks pair of HRs in win over Milwaukee
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(11:46 pm ET) Reds shortstop Zack Cozart smacked a pair of home runs in a game for the first time since April 5, 2013. He took Tyler Thornburg deep in the fifth inning for a two-run shot, and Neal Cotts deep for a solo shot in the seventh inning, leading his team to a 16-10 victory over Milwaukee on Tuesday.

Cozart has four home runs over his last four games. He added a single and finished 5 for 3 with three runs scored, two home runs and three RBI. He is hitting .353/.389/.647 on the year.


Reds 3B Todd Frazier comes up grand in win over Brewers
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(11:44 pm ET) Reds third baseman Todd Frazier come up big at the plate, launching his first career grand slam in Tuesday's 16-10 win over the Brewers in Milwaukee. Frazier was one of three players to hit a grand slam on the night, two of them came from Cincinnati. It marked the fourth time in Major League Baseball history that three grand slams were hit in one game.

Frazier took starter Mike Fiers deep in the top of the fourth with the bases loaded for his fourth home run of the season. He added a single and reached base four times. He finished 2 for 4 with two walks, three runs scored, a home run and four RBI. He is hitting .250/.317/.518 on the year.


Indians starter Carlos Carrasco fans eight on Tuesday in victory
by Ted Leshinski | Staff Writer
(11:44 pm ET) Indians starter Carlos Carrasco (2-1) struck out eight batters in five innings on Tuesday and took the win against the White Sox.

The lone run he allowed was a first-inning solo shot from Jose Abreu.

Carrasco returns to the hill on Sunday in Detroit.

Aaron Barrett earns win in relief for Nationals
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(11:43 pm ET) Nationals reliever Aaron Barrett moved to 2-0 on the season after pitching a scoreless tenth inning in Tuesday's win over St. Louis. Barrett struck out one and allowed a hit. 

In six and two thirds innings over seven appearances, Barrett has yet to allow an earned run. Tuesday's hit was just the second he's given up this year. 


 
 
 
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