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2012 Draft Prep: ADP movers and shakers

Senior Fantasy Writer
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I suppose you can call it "hype adjustment," or, on the flip side, "overlook correction" -- the phenomenon where drafters take a look at the wisdom of the crowds and decide there's actually not much wisdom there, after all.

We're seeing it on a daily basis, as a handful of players are making moves up and down the Average Draft Position boards; which is an amazingly impressive feat, considering the huge number of drafts being run on CBSSports.com. (Think of it like changing your batting average after five years of baseball -- it takes more than a few hits to really move it). Some moves make sense; others deserve a deeper look.

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But as draft season kicks into high gear and the stakes rise from "doing a quick mock" to "these are the players I will care for more deeply than some family members over the next six months," the weight of the picks has increased, and, in turn, ADPs are seeing some shifts. We give two sets of ADPs here at CBSSports.com -- one for H2H points leagues and another for traditional Rotisserie leagues. Some of the players that stick out in each include ...

Head-to-Head ( Current H2H Draft Averages )

Edwin Jackson, SP, Nationals (+2; 201 to 199)
I think as we get closer to the season -- or, perhaps, even in the season -- people are going to realize just how good this Washington pitching staff is. Most of the preseason Fantasy attention has been focused on Stephen Strasburg, but the pitchers lining up behind him -- Jordan Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez and Edwin Jackson -- form a top four that could, on their better days, admirably go to battle with almost any staff in the majors. Jackson's last start was a mess (four earned runs in four innings), which would normally drop him down a couple slots, but I think drafters are slowly coming to realize that Jackson could be an asset to their staffs. The boost also brings Jackson into the top 200 in ADP.

Matt Capps, RP, Twins (-4; 241 to 245)
Capps has given up one run in all of spring training and has shown no indication in the last few days that he'll have another rocky season full of points-reducing blown saves ahead of him. And the man presumably next in line, Glen Perkins, is nowhere to be found on the ADP list. So why the sudden drop? In H2H leagues, Capps will lose value with every blown save, and he's not going to strike out a batter per inning. But both Minnesota and Capps have a pretty solid history with saves. So if Capps keeps sinking in ADPs, he becomes more of a value pick.

David Ortiz, DH, Red Sox (-2; 96 to 98)
Ortiz is only eligible to use at the utility/DH spot, which already puts a bit of a dent in his value. But he's also been pretty cold in spring training as of late, not having homered since March 9 (he has two so far this spring) and striking out six times against two walks. He's a perennial slow starter and doesn't have the greatest track record in spring training over his career (OPS is .761), but drafters may now be plucking up options outside of Ortiz to use in their utility spots (Jesus Montero, for instance, is a younger, more-dynamic DH-only option).

Chris Davis, 1B, Orioles (+3; 325 to 322)
Davis is a really peculiar case, considering one of his major drawbacks is strikeouts, which are going to hurt you in standard H2H leagues. His uptick in ADP might be just a case of people realizing that his grip on the starting first base job in Baltimore is strengthening on the back of a four-game hitting streak (as of Wednesday) that brought his spring average up to .281. Still, eight strikeouts to one walk so far is not a pretty ratio in points leagues.

Rotisserie ( Current Roto Draft Averages )

Chris Davis, 1B, Orioles (-3; from 297 to 300)
In light of Davis' inexplicable rise on the H2H side is his similarly inexplicable drop in Rotisserie leagues. This should be the opposite -- you can dismiss his strikeouts in Roto leagues because they don't count against you (directly). But his rise and fall are backwards. In H2H, you'd want to steer clear, in Roto leagues, you want to ride his power.

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Jayson Werth, OF, Nationals (-2; from 123 to 125)
Werth is a great candidate to have a bounceback year in 2012. Ask anyone how many homers he hit last season, and they'd probably guess about 15. But he hit 20. And he threw in 19 steals. Granted, 2011 was a drop-off, overall, from his previous two seasons, but I think people perceive Werth as having had a much worse year, at least in terms of power (his .232 average was the lowest since he was a rookie, and he took a lot of unnecessary shots for the monster contract he signed in the offseason). So far this spring Werth is hitting .286 with two home runs and a 1.089 OPS. Even with the Nationals sending Bryce Harper down to Syracuse on Sunday, Werth still dropped two spots in ADP rankings.

Johan Santana, SP, Mets (+2; from 230 to 228)
I don't think Santana is done with his rise. Owners had kind of put him on the backburner and assumed he'd be back to full strength later in the season. Pessimists assumed his velocity would never be the same and we'd have to temper expectations. We still may have to look at him in a new light, but Santana has at least taken steps in proving he's durable and should be ready for the start of the season. After two encouraging appearances at the beginning of spring, Santana was roughed up by the Tigers on March 16 and saw his ERA balloon to 4.91. But, on Wednesday, he mowed down the Cardinals, giving up just one run in six innings while striking out six batters. It was a welcome development, as he had just two strikeouts in all of spring before the game. He's being taken so low in drafts that even if his K rate drops again and his ERA runs higher than his current 3.38, the fact that he is pitching -- without complication -- should move him up several more slots before opening day, regardless of his performance between then and now.

Ivan Nova, SP, Yankees (-4; from 245 to 249)
The Andy Pettitte Effect! Even though Nova had a wonderful rookie campaign in 2011, it looks like the general consensus is that Pettitte's signing will drop Nova to ... somewhere (the bullpen? Another team?). He's slipping down draft boards and it doesn't look like Phil Hughes or Michael Pineda are getting the same treatment -- Hughes has dropped just one slot, from 289 to 290, while Pineda has actually jumped up a slot, moving from 80 to 79. Nova hasn't exactly helped to soothe the fears of potential drafters, either, putting up a 7.82 ERA so far this spring, giving up four home runs and allowing five earned runs in two separate games.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyBB or Nando Di Fino at @NandoCBS . You can also send our staff an e-mail at fantasybaseball@cbsinteractive.com .

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Player News
Nick Castellanos slugs seventh home run Wednesday
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(10:37 pm ET) Tigers third baseman Nick Castellanos went 2 for 4 with a home run and a career-high four RBI in his team's 7-2 win over the White Sox Wednesday.

Castellanos put an exclamation point on a six-run first inning by swatting a three-run home run. He added a fourth RBI on a single in the seventh inning. Castellanos has hit .267/.312/.409 with seven home runs and 41 RBI in 330 at-bats.


Adam Dunn slugs 17th home run Wednesday
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(10:35 pm ET) White Sox designated hitter Adam Dunn went 1 for 4 with a solo home run in his team's 7-2 loss to the Tigers Wednesday.

Dunn has homered in back-to-back games against the Tigers, and he's swatted five home runs in July to match his season high for monthly home-run production. He has hit .230/.362/.450 with 17 home runs and 44 RBI in 300 at-bats.


Max Scherzer limits White Sox to one run in win Wednesday
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(10:30 pm ET) Tigers pitcher Max Scherzer earned a win Wednesday, giving up just one earned run on five hits and one walk in seven innings and striking out six in his team's 7-2 victory over the White Sox.

Scherzer (13-3) has given up three runs or fewer in seven straight starts, going 5-0 during that stretch. His only damage Wednesday came on a seventh-inning sacrifice fly with his team up six runs. Scherzer owns a 3.27 ERA and 167:41 K:BB ratio in 146 innings. He's slated to face the Yankees Monday.


Hector Noesi surrenders six runs in ugly first inning vs. Tigers
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(10:29 pm ET) White Sox pitcher Hector Noesi took a loss Wednesday, giving up six earned runs on 10 hits and three walks in six innings and striking out three in his team's 7-2 defeat against the Tigers.

Noesi (5-8) gave up all six runs during an ugly first inning that saw eight consecutive batters reach base safely. He owns a 5.21 ERA and 78:41 K:BB ratio in 107 innings. Noesi is scheduled to take on the Rangers Monday.


Dan Uggla still with Giants, move could come soon
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(10:28 pm ET) Updating a previous report, the Giants have yet to make a move regarding second baseman Dan Uggla, the San Francisco Chronicle reports.

There's a strong possibility Uggla won't be with the team when they take the field Friday in New York, but a move has not officially been made yet. He is 0 for 11 with six strikeouts in four games with the Giants.


Tyler Colvin optioned to Triple-A
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(10:25 pm ET) Updating a previous report, Giants outfielder Tyler Colvin has been optioned to Triple-A Fresno, the San Francisco Chronicle reports.

Colvin was reported to be released after Wednesday's game, but he'll instead join the team's Triple-A affiliate. He has hit .225/.270/.384 with two home runs and 18 RBI in 138 at-bats.


Report: Marlins, White Sox discuss John Danks trade
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(10:14 pm ET) The Marlins and White Sox have discussed a potential trade involving pitcher John Danks, FOX Sports 1 reports.

Danks would be a nice lower-cost addition for a playoff hopeful that doesn't want to break the bank for an ace. He owns a 4.40 ERA and 92:46 K:BB ratio in 131 innings.


Shane Victorino removed for precautionary reasons Wednesday
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(10:12 pm ET) Red Sox outfielder Shane Victorino was removed from Wednesday's game for precautionary reasons, the Providence Journal reports.

Manager John Farrell saw "a change in his gait" in the outfield, leading to Victorino coming out midway through the game. He was 0 for 2 before exiting and has now hit .268/.303/.382 with two home runs and 12 RBI in 123 at-bats.


T.J. McFarland to return to team Thursday
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(10:06 pm ET) Orioles pitcher T.J. McFarland will be activated from the bereavement list Thursday, masnsports.com reports.

McFarland was placed on the bereavement list Monday. He owns a 3.07 ERA and 23:11 K:BB ratio in 41 innings.


Michael Wacha to undergo MRI Monday, could throw soon
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(10:04 pm ET) Cardinals pitcher Michael Wacha will undergo an MRI on his injured shoulder Monday, and if the tests go how the team expects, he'll begin a throwing program soon after, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.

Wacha is eyeing a return to the team in September, and while he could come back as a reliever, general manager John Mozeliak "has a feeling" he'll return as a starter. His role for the remainder of the season will be determined by whatever the team believes is best for his long-term health.


 
 
 
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