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2012 Draft Prep: ADP movers and shakers

Senior Fantasy Writer
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I suppose you can call it "hype adjustment," or, on the flip side, "overlook correction" -- the phenomenon where drafters take a look at the wisdom of the crowds and decide there's actually not much wisdom there, after all.

We're seeing it on a daily basis, as a handful of players are making moves up and down the Average Draft Position boards; which is an amazingly impressive feat, considering the huge number of drafts being run on CBSSports.com. (Think of it like changing your batting average after five years of baseball -- it takes more than a few hits to really move it). Some moves make sense; others deserve a deeper look.

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But as draft season kicks into high gear and the stakes rise from "doing a quick mock" to "these are the players I will care for more deeply than some family members over the next six months," the weight of the picks has increased, and, in turn, ADPs are seeing some shifts. We give two sets of ADPs here at CBSSports.com -- one for H2H points leagues and another for traditional Rotisserie leagues. Some of the players that stick out in each include ...

Head-to-Head ( Current H2H Draft Averages )

Edwin Jackson, SP, Nationals (+2; 201 to 199)
I think as we get closer to the season -- or, perhaps, even in the season -- people are going to realize just how good this Washington pitching staff is. Most of the preseason Fantasy attention has been focused on Stephen Strasburg, but the pitchers lining up behind him -- Jordan Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez and Edwin Jackson -- form a top four that could, on their better days, admirably go to battle with almost any staff in the majors. Jackson's last start was a mess (four earned runs in four innings), which would normally drop him down a couple slots, but I think drafters are slowly coming to realize that Jackson could be an asset to their staffs. The boost also brings Jackson into the top 200 in ADP.

Matt Capps, RP, Twins (-4; 241 to 245)
Capps has given up one run in all of spring training and has shown no indication in the last few days that he'll have another rocky season full of points-reducing blown saves ahead of him. And the man presumably next in line, Glen Perkins, is nowhere to be found on the ADP list. So why the sudden drop? In H2H leagues, Capps will lose value with every blown save, and he's not going to strike out a batter per inning. But both Minnesota and Capps have a pretty solid history with saves. So if Capps keeps sinking in ADPs, he becomes more of a value pick.

David Ortiz, DH, Red Sox (-2; 96 to 98)
Ortiz is only eligible to use at the utility/DH spot, which already puts a bit of a dent in his value. But he's also been pretty cold in spring training as of late, not having homered since March 9 (he has two so far this spring) and striking out six times against two walks. He's a perennial slow starter and doesn't have the greatest track record in spring training over his career (OPS is .761), but drafters may now be plucking up options outside of Ortiz to use in their utility spots (Jesus Montero, for instance, is a younger, more-dynamic DH-only option).

Chris Davis, 1B, Orioles (+3; 325 to 322)
Davis is a really peculiar case, considering one of his major drawbacks is strikeouts, which are going to hurt you in standard H2H leagues. His uptick in ADP might be just a case of people realizing that his grip on the starting first base job in Baltimore is strengthening on the back of a four-game hitting streak (as of Wednesday) that brought his spring average up to .281. Still, eight strikeouts to one walk so far is not a pretty ratio in points leagues.

Rotisserie ( Current Roto Draft Averages )

Chris Davis, 1B, Orioles (-3; from 297 to 300)
In light of Davis' inexplicable rise on the H2H side is his similarly inexplicable drop in Rotisserie leagues. This should be the opposite -- you can dismiss his strikeouts in Roto leagues because they don't count against you (directly). But his rise and fall are backwards. In H2H, you'd want to steer clear, in Roto leagues, you want to ride his power.

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Jayson Werth, OF, Nationals (-2; from 123 to 125)
Werth is a great candidate to have a bounceback year in 2012. Ask anyone how many homers he hit last season, and they'd probably guess about 15. But he hit 20. And he threw in 19 steals. Granted, 2011 was a drop-off, overall, from his previous two seasons, but I think people perceive Werth as having had a much worse year, at least in terms of power (his .232 average was the lowest since he was a rookie, and he took a lot of unnecessary shots for the monster contract he signed in the offseason). So far this spring Werth is hitting .286 with two home runs and a 1.089 OPS. Even with the Nationals sending Bryce Harper down to Syracuse on Sunday, Werth still dropped two spots in ADP rankings.

Johan Santana, SP, Mets (+2; from 230 to 228)
I don't think Santana is done with his rise. Owners had kind of put him on the backburner and assumed he'd be back to full strength later in the season. Pessimists assumed his velocity would never be the same and we'd have to temper expectations. We still may have to look at him in a new light, but Santana has at least taken steps in proving he's durable and should be ready for the start of the season. After two encouraging appearances at the beginning of spring, Santana was roughed up by the Tigers on March 16 and saw his ERA balloon to 4.91. But, on Wednesday, he mowed down the Cardinals, giving up just one run in six innings while striking out six batters. It was a welcome development, as he had just two strikeouts in all of spring before the game. He's being taken so low in drafts that even if his K rate drops again and his ERA runs higher than his current 3.38, the fact that he is pitching -- without complication -- should move him up several more slots before opening day, regardless of his performance between then and now.

Ivan Nova, SP, Yankees (-4; from 245 to 249)
The Andy Pettitte Effect! Even though Nova had a wonderful rookie campaign in 2011, it looks like the general consensus is that Pettitte's signing will drop Nova to ... somewhere (the bullpen? Another team?). He's slipping down draft boards and it doesn't look like Phil Hughes or Michael Pineda are getting the same treatment -- Hughes has dropped just one slot, from 289 to 290, while Pineda has actually jumped up a slot, moving from 80 to 79. Nova hasn't exactly helped to soothe the fears of potential drafters, either, putting up a 7.82 ERA so far this spring, giving up four home runs and allowing five earned runs in two separate games.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyBB or Nando Di Fino at @NandoCBS . You can also send our staff an e-mail at fantasybaseball@cbsinteractive.com .

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Player News
Marlins OF Giancarlo Stanton's offseason routine won't skip a beat
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(10/25/2014) Marlins outfielder Giancarlo Stanton told reporters on Saturday he expects to have a normal offseason, per the New York Times. Stanton missed the final 17 games of the season after suffering multiple facial fractures and dental damage after being drilled in the face by an 88 mph fastball from Brewers pitcher Mike Fiers.

"It was a long process of just kind of laying around the house, and not being able to leave too much," Stanton said. "But I feel great now, and I'll be back to my normal offseason routine and shouldn't skip a beat."


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(10/25/2014) Mets pitcher Jeurys Familia underwent successful surgery to repair bilateral sport hernias Friday in Philadelphia, the team announced.

Familia could be in the conversation to close for the Mets next season provided the sports hernia issue doesn't sideline him next spring. He posted a 2.21 ERA and 73:32 K:BB ratio in 77 1/3 innings while recording five saves this season.


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(10/25/2014) The Pirates designated two relievers for assignment Saturday, removing pitchers John Axford and Jeanmar Gomez from the 40-man roster.

The moves clear spots for Justin Sellers, who was acquired via trade Saturday, and Charlie Morton, who was activated from the 60-day disabled list. Axford posted a 4.09 ERA and 12:6 K:BB ratio in 11 innings after being acquired in a trade from the Indians in mid-August. Gomez posted a 3.19 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 38:23 K:BB ratio in 62 innings.


Pirates activate Charlie Morton from 60-day disabled list
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(10/25/2014) The Pirates activated pitcher Charlie Morton from the 60-day disabled list Saturday. Morton underwent hip surgery in late September after dealing with a sports hernia and could be a candidate to go back on the disabled list in the spring.

Indians trade Justin Sellers to Pirates for cash considerations
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(10/25/2014) The Indians have traded shortstop Justin Sellers to the Pirates for cash considerations.

Sellers went 3 for 16 in 17 appearances with the Indians this season. He hit .254/.307/.335 with three home runs, 40 RBI and three stolen bases in 355 at-bats with Triple-A Columbus as well. Sellers has the ability to fill a utility role for the Pirates, as he's played at least 10 games each at shortstop, second base, third base and left field over the last two years.


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(10/25/2014) The Royals have designated pitcher Liam Hendriks for assignment. Hendriks posted a 5.23 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 23:7 K:BB ratio in 32 2/3 innings during the regular season.

Phillies activate Mario Hollands from 60-day disabled list
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(10/25/2014) The Phillies have activated pitcher Mario Hollands from the 60-day disabled list.

Hollands suffered an elbow injury in early September and was ruled out for the season, but it was determined he didn't require surgery on his Game 2 flexor strain. He delivered a 4.40 ERA in 50 appearances in 2014.


Phillies activate Cliff Lee from 60-day disabled list
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(10/25/2014) The Phillies have activated pitcher Cliff Lee from the 60-day disabled list. Lee is expected to begin a full throwing program in November and is on track to be ready for spring training.

Giants will not start Madison Bumgarner on short rest
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(10/25/2014) The Giants will not start Madison Bumgarner on short rest for Game 4.

Manager Bruce Bochy admitted he was considering giving Bumgarner the start prior to Game 3, but changed his mind following the game. Bumgarner has thrown a combined 256 innings between the regular season and the postseason, and there's a chance the team didn't want to push him any further, especially on short rest. San Francisco will throw Ryan Vogelsong, as originally planned.


Royals RP Greg Holland shuts it down Friday
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(10/24/2014) Royals closer Greg Holland did his job Friday against the Giants.

With his team up by one run, Holland was called upon to pick up the save. He had little trouble against San Francisco. Facing the heart of the team's order, Holland induced a flyout and two groundouts against Buster Posey, Pablo Sandoval and Hunter Pence. He threw just eight pitches, five of which were strikes. 


 
 
 
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