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2012 Draft Prep: ADP movers and shakers

Senior Fantasy Writer
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I suppose you can call it "hype adjustment," or, on the flip side, "overlook correction" -- the phenomenon where drafters take a look at the wisdom of the crowds and decide there's actually not much wisdom there, after all.

We're seeing it on a daily basis, as a handful of players are making moves up and down the Average Draft Position boards; which is an amazingly impressive feat, considering the huge number of drafts being run on CBSSports.com. (Think of it like changing your batting average after five years of baseball -- it takes more than a few hits to really move it). Some moves make sense; others deserve a deeper look.

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But as draft season kicks into high gear and the stakes rise from "doing a quick mock" to "these are the players I will care for more deeply than some family members over the next six months," the weight of the picks has increased, and, in turn, ADPs are seeing some shifts. We give two sets of ADPs here at CBSSports.com -- one for H2H points leagues and another for traditional Rotisserie leagues. Some of the players that stick out in each include ...

Head-to-Head ( Current H2H Draft Averages )

Edwin Jackson, SP, Nationals (+2; 201 to 199)
I think as we get closer to the season -- or, perhaps, even in the season -- people are going to realize just how good this Washington pitching staff is. Most of the preseason Fantasy attention has been focused on Stephen Strasburg, but the pitchers lining up behind him -- Jordan Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez and Edwin Jackson -- form a top four that could, on their better days, admirably go to battle with almost any staff in the majors. Jackson's last start was a mess (four earned runs in four innings), which would normally drop him down a couple slots, but I think drafters are slowly coming to realize that Jackson could be an asset to their staffs. The boost also brings Jackson into the top 200 in ADP.

Matt Capps, RP, Twins (-4; 241 to 245)
Capps has given up one run in all of spring training and has shown no indication in the last few days that he'll have another rocky season full of points-reducing blown saves ahead of him. And the man presumably next in line, Glen Perkins, is nowhere to be found on the ADP list. So why the sudden drop? In H2H leagues, Capps will lose value with every blown save, and he's not going to strike out a batter per inning. But both Minnesota and Capps have a pretty solid history with saves. So if Capps keeps sinking in ADPs, he becomes more of a value pick.

David Ortiz, DH, Red Sox (-2; 96 to 98)
Ortiz is only eligible to use at the utility/DH spot, which already puts a bit of a dent in his value. But he's also been pretty cold in spring training as of late, not having homered since March 9 (he has two so far this spring) and striking out six times against two walks. He's a perennial slow starter and doesn't have the greatest track record in spring training over his career (OPS is .761), but drafters may now be plucking up options outside of Ortiz to use in their utility spots (Jesus Montero, for instance, is a younger, more-dynamic DH-only option).

Chris Davis, 1B, Orioles (+3; 325 to 322)
Davis is a really peculiar case, considering one of his major drawbacks is strikeouts, which are going to hurt you in standard H2H leagues. His uptick in ADP might be just a case of people realizing that his grip on the starting first base job in Baltimore is strengthening on the back of a four-game hitting streak (as of Wednesday) that brought his spring average up to .281. Still, eight strikeouts to one walk so far is not a pretty ratio in points leagues.

Rotisserie ( Current Roto Draft Averages )

Chris Davis, 1B, Orioles (-3; from 297 to 300)
In light of Davis' inexplicable rise on the H2H side is his similarly inexplicable drop in Rotisserie leagues. This should be the opposite -- you can dismiss his strikeouts in Roto leagues because they don't count against you (directly). But his rise and fall are backwards. In H2H, you'd want to steer clear, in Roto leagues, you want to ride his power.

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Jayson Werth, OF, Nationals (-2; from 123 to 125)
Werth is a great candidate to have a bounceback year in 2012. Ask anyone how many homers he hit last season, and they'd probably guess about 15. But he hit 20. And he threw in 19 steals. Granted, 2011 was a drop-off, overall, from his previous two seasons, but I think people perceive Werth as having had a much worse year, at least in terms of power (his .232 average was the lowest since he was a rookie, and he took a lot of unnecessary shots for the monster contract he signed in the offseason). So far this spring Werth is hitting .286 with two home runs and a 1.089 OPS. Even with the Nationals sending Bryce Harper down to Syracuse on Sunday, Werth still dropped two spots in ADP rankings.

Johan Santana, SP, Mets (+2; from 230 to 228)
I don't think Santana is done with his rise. Owners had kind of put him on the backburner and assumed he'd be back to full strength later in the season. Pessimists assumed his velocity would never be the same and we'd have to temper expectations. We still may have to look at him in a new light, but Santana has at least taken steps in proving he's durable and should be ready for the start of the season. After two encouraging appearances at the beginning of spring, Santana was roughed up by the Tigers on March 16 and saw his ERA balloon to 4.91. But, on Wednesday, he mowed down the Cardinals, giving up just one run in six innings while striking out six batters. It was a welcome development, as he had just two strikeouts in all of spring before the game. He's being taken so low in drafts that even if his K rate drops again and his ERA runs higher than his current 3.38, the fact that he is pitching -- without complication -- should move him up several more slots before opening day, regardless of his performance between then and now.

Ivan Nova, SP, Yankees (-4; from 245 to 249)
The Andy Pettitte Effect! Even though Nova had a wonderful rookie campaign in 2011, it looks like the general consensus is that Pettitte's signing will drop Nova to ... somewhere (the bullpen? Another team?). He's slipping down draft boards and it doesn't look like Phil Hughes or Michael Pineda are getting the same treatment -- Hughes has dropped just one slot, from 289 to 290, while Pineda has actually jumped up a slot, moving from 80 to 79. Nova hasn't exactly helped to soothe the fears of potential drafters, either, putting up a 7.82 ERA so far this spring, giving up four home runs and allowing five earned runs in two separate games.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyBB or Nando Di Fino at @NandoCBS . You can also send our staff an e-mail at fantasybaseball@cbsinteractive.com .

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Player News
Drew Pomeranz optioned to minors after DL activation
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(2:55 pm ET) Athletics pitcher Drew Pomeranz (hand) was activated off the 15-day disabled list and then optioned to Triple-A Sacramento Sunday. The A's did not have a rotation spot for Pomeranz after trading for Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel.

Mariners line up post-break rotation
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(2:52 pm ET) Mariners manager Lloyd McClendon announced his team's post-All-Star-break rotation plans Sunday, and Hisashi Iwakuma was given the nod to start the second-half opener Friday against the Angels.

He will be followed by Felix Hernandez and Chris Young in the three-game series at Los Angeles. Roenis Elias will then open a series at home against the Mets July 21, but McClendon did not announce a starter for the second game of the New York series. 

It is assumed Taijuan Walker will rejoin the rotation from Triple-A Tacoma. However, McClendon didn't seem pleased with how Walker fared for Tacoma Saturday, according to MLB.com. Walker allowed one run on four hits and one walk in five innings, but he needed 83 pitches and had only one strikeout. McClendon said the bar needs to be raised for Walker.


Reds making sure not to rush Jack Hannahan
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(2:31 pm ET) Reds infielder Jack Hannahan, who is working his way back from October shoulder surgery, has gone 3 for 9 (.333) with one double and one RBI in three games since beginning a rehab assignment with Class A Dayton. He has been the DH all three games.

"He's starting to do some things at first base and we're segueing probably from DH to first base and eventually to third base," Reds manager Bryan Price said, per MLB.com. "But he's doing some different throws -- like that 3-6-1 double play -- which requires a different arm angle and footwork. So every time we reintegrate something, there's typically a little more soreness afterward, as you would expect while getting into shape.

"So we're taking a step and then we're taking a day off for recovery. He felt great yesterday."


Ramon Santiago sits out due to sore shoulder
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(2:27 pm ET) Reds manager Bryan Price chose to keep Ramon Santiago out of the starting lineup Sunday vs. Pittsburgh after he hurt his left shoulder diving for a ground ball while playing second base Saturday, per MLB.com.

"I think he's probably a little bit sore, but he can play," manager Bryan Price said of Santiago. "He got a little beat up yesterday, as you saw. But [the medical staff] did all the tests and stuff on him in there, and he had good strength and swung the bat fine and seemed to be OK. But I think he has the chance to feel a little bit more sore today than yesterday."


Shin-Soo Choo needs to 'get himself back mentally'
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(2:13 pm ET) Rangers manager Ron Washington kept slumping outfielder Shin-Soo Choo out of the lineup Sunday, saying Choo needs to "get himself back mentally," reports the Dallas Morning News. Shoo is hitting .152 over his lst 33 at-bats.

Tim Hudson replacing teammate on NL All-Star team
by Jeff Borzello | College Basketball Writer
(2:07 pm ET) Giants starting pitcher Tim Hudson will take the roster spot of teammate Madison Bumgarner on the NL All-Star team because Bumgarner started Sunday vs. Arizona. It will be the fourth time Hudson has made an All-Star team.

Twins set rotation beyond All-Star break
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(2:04 pm ET) The Twins announced their rotation for the three-game series starting Friday against the Rays. Kyle Gibson, Kevin Correia and Phil Hughes will face Tampa Bay, with the rest of the rotation still undetermined, according to the St. Paul Pioneer Press.


Tigers planning to get Victor Martinez back Friday
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(2:00 pm ET) Tigers manager Brad Ausmus said he's planning on getting designated hitter Victor Martinez back in the lineup Friday, reports MLive.com. Martinez hurt his back June 29 while taking a swing and will go into the All-Star break having played in just two of the team's last 13 games.

He's hitting .328 with 21 homers and 55 RBI. Martinez will participate in All-Star festivities but not the game. He'll swing the bat in a team workout early Friday, hoping to get cleared for Friday's game against the Indians.


Alfredo Simon added to NL All-Star team
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(1:59 pm ET) Reds starting pitcher Alfredo Simon has been added to the NL All-Star team roster, a source told FOX Sports. It will be Simon's first All-Star appearance.

Jordan Lyles moved to 60-day DL, hand not fully healed
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(1:55 pm ET) Rockies starting pitcher Jordan Lyles (hand) was moved from the 15-day to the 60-day disabled list Sunday. Lyles was set to begin a rehab assignment Friday, but it appears those plans are on hold after tests revealed his broken hand was not fully healed, manager Walt Weiss said.

"His hand showed he needed more time," Weiss said, per The Denver Post.

Weiss also revealed Lyles was involved in a car accident Friday. He was not driving, but he did receive cuts to his face.

"It was a minor accident, but he doesn't look real pretty," Weiss said.


 
 
 
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