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2012 Draft Prep: ADP movers and shakers

Senior Fantasy Writer
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I suppose you can call it "hype adjustment," or, on the flip side, "overlook correction" -- the phenomenon where drafters take a look at the wisdom of the crowds and decide there's actually not much wisdom there, after all.

We're seeing it on a daily basis, as a handful of players are making moves up and down the Average Draft Position boards; which is an amazingly impressive feat, considering the huge number of drafts being run on CBSSports.com. (Think of it like changing your batting average after five years of baseball -- it takes more than a few hits to really move it). Some moves make sense; others deserve a deeper look.

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But as draft season kicks into high gear and the stakes rise from "doing a quick mock" to "these are the players I will care for more deeply than some family members over the next six months," the weight of the picks has increased, and, in turn, ADPs are seeing some shifts. We give two sets of ADPs here at CBSSports.com -- one for H2H points leagues and another for traditional Rotisserie leagues. Some of the players that stick out in each include ...

Head-to-Head ( Current H2H Draft Averages )

Edwin Jackson, SP, Nationals (+2; 201 to 199)
I think as we get closer to the season -- or, perhaps, even in the season -- people are going to realize just how good this Washington pitching staff is. Most of the preseason Fantasy attention has been focused on Stephen Strasburg, but the pitchers lining up behind him -- Jordan Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez and Edwin Jackson -- form a top four that could, on their better days, admirably go to battle with almost any staff in the majors. Jackson's last start was a mess (four earned runs in four innings), which would normally drop him down a couple slots, but I think drafters are slowly coming to realize that Jackson could be an asset to their staffs. The boost also brings Jackson into the top 200 in ADP.

Matt Capps, RP, Twins (-4; 241 to 245)
Capps has given up one run in all of spring training and has shown no indication in the last few days that he'll have another rocky season full of points-reducing blown saves ahead of him. And the man presumably next in line, Glen Perkins, is nowhere to be found on the ADP list. So why the sudden drop? In H2H leagues, Capps will lose value with every blown save, and he's not going to strike out a batter per inning. But both Minnesota and Capps have a pretty solid history with saves. So if Capps keeps sinking in ADPs, he becomes more of a value pick.

David Ortiz, DH, Red Sox (-2; 96 to 98)
Ortiz is only eligible to use at the utility/DH spot, which already puts a bit of a dent in his value. But he's also been pretty cold in spring training as of late, not having homered since March 9 (he has two so far this spring) and striking out six times against two walks. He's a perennial slow starter and doesn't have the greatest track record in spring training over his career (OPS is .761), but drafters may now be plucking up options outside of Ortiz to use in their utility spots (Jesus Montero, for instance, is a younger, more-dynamic DH-only option).

Chris Davis, 1B, Orioles (+3; 325 to 322)
Davis is a really peculiar case, considering one of his major drawbacks is strikeouts, which are going to hurt you in standard H2H leagues. His uptick in ADP might be just a case of people realizing that his grip on the starting first base job in Baltimore is strengthening on the back of a four-game hitting streak (as of Wednesday) that brought his spring average up to .281. Still, eight strikeouts to one walk so far is not a pretty ratio in points leagues.

Rotisserie ( Current Roto Draft Averages )

Chris Davis, 1B, Orioles (-3; from 297 to 300)
In light of Davis' inexplicable rise on the H2H side is his similarly inexplicable drop in Rotisserie leagues. This should be the opposite -- you can dismiss his strikeouts in Roto leagues because they don't count against you (directly). But his rise and fall are backwards. In H2H, you'd want to steer clear, in Roto leagues, you want to ride his power.

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Jayson Werth, OF, Nationals (-2; from 123 to 125)
Werth is a great candidate to have a bounceback year in 2012. Ask anyone how many homers he hit last season, and they'd probably guess about 15. But he hit 20. And he threw in 19 steals. Granted, 2011 was a drop-off, overall, from his previous two seasons, but I think people perceive Werth as having had a much worse year, at least in terms of power (his .232 average was the lowest since he was a rookie, and he took a lot of unnecessary shots for the monster contract he signed in the offseason). So far this spring Werth is hitting .286 with two home runs and a 1.089 OPS. Even with the Nationals sending Bryce Harper down to Syracuse on Sunday, Werth still dropped two spots in ADP rankings.

Johan Santana, SP, Mets (+2; from 230 to 228)
I don't think Santana is done with his rise. Owners had kind of put him on the backburner and assumed he'd be back to full strength later in the season. Pessimists assumed his velocity would never be the same and we'd have to temper expectations. We still may have to look at him in a new light, but Santana has at least taken steps in proving he's durable and should be ready for the start of the season. After two encouraging appearances at the beginning of spring, Santana was roughed up by the Tigers on March 16 and saw his ERA balloon to 4.91. But, on Wednesday, he mowed down the Cardinals, giving up just one run in six innings while striking out six batters. It was a welcome development, as he had just two strikeouts in all of spring before the game. He's being taken so low in drafts that even if his K rate drops again and his ERA runs higher than his current 3.38, the fact that he is pitching -- without complication -- should move him up several more slots before opening day, regardless of his performance between then and now.

Ivan Nova, SP, Yankees (-4; from 245 to 249)
The Andy Pettitte Effect! Even though Nova had a wonderful rookie campaign in 2011, it looks like the general consensus is that Pettitte's signing will drop Nova to ... somewhere (the bullpen? Another team?). He's slipping down draft boards and it doesn't look like Phil Hughes or Michael Pineda are getting the same treatment -- Hughes has dropped just one slot, from 289 to 290, while Pineda has actually jumped up a slot, moving from 80 to 79. Nova hasn't exactly helped to soothe the fears of potential drafters, either, putting up a 7.82 ERA so far this spring, giving up four home runs and allowing five earned runs in two separate games.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyBB or Nando Di Fino at @NandoCBS . You can also send our staff an e-mail at fantasybaseball@cbsinteractive.com .

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Player News
Pitcher Joe Thatcher elects free agency
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(3:40 pm ET) Former Astros pitcher Joe Thatcher has chosen to be a free agent after clearing waivers Tuesday, the team announced.

Thatcher was recently designated for assignment after posting a 3.79 ERA over 19 innings of work.


Red Sox 2B Brock Holt remains out Tuesday
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(3:28 pm ET) Red Sox infielder Brock Holt was held out of Tuesday's lineup against the White Sox, reports the Boston Herald.

Holt also missed Monday's game with a hyperextended right knee. He was replaced by Jemile Weeks, who will hit eighth and play second base.


Marlins reinstate Dee Gordon from DL; place Solano on paternity list
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(3:05 pm ET) The Marlins removed second baseman Dee Gordon from the disabled list Tuesday, the team announced.

Gordon had been out since July 11 with a thumb injury. He will bat first and play second in Tuesday's game against the Nationals, reports MLB.com.

With Gordon back on the roster, the team placed infielder Donovan Solano on the paternity list.


Royals, Athletics agree on LF Ben Zobrist trade
by Ruben Palacios | Staff Writer
(2:49 pm ET) The Royals and Athletics have agreed on a trade that would send left fielder Ben Zobrist to Kansas City, CBS Baseball Insider Jon Heyman is reporting.

Kansas City is reportedly sending one of its top prospects, Sean Manaea , to Oakland in the swap. Manaea was a concensus top-100 prospect by MLB.com and Baseball America.


Braves place Manny Banuelos on DL; promote David Carpenter
by Ruben Palacios | Staff Writer
(2:40 pm ET) The Braves placed starting pitcher Manny Banuelos on the 15-day disabled list because of left elbow inflammation, while also promoting pitcher David Carpenter from Triple-A Gwinnett, the team announced Tuesday.

Banuelos was scheduled to start on Wednesday.


Reds' Chris Dominguez clears waivers, outrighted to Triple-A
by Ruben Palacios | Staff Writer
(2:32 pm ET) Reds left fielder Chris Dominguez cleared waivers and has been outrighted to Triple-A Louisville, the team announced on Tuesday.

Dominguez was designated for assignment on Monday.


Angels LF Matt Joyce to go on concussion disabled list
by Ruben Palacios | Staff Writer
(2:18 pm ET) Angels left fielder Matt Joyce will likely be placed on the 7-day disabled list because of a concussion, per MLB.com.

Joyce left Sunday's game after colliding with a teammate in the outfield while chasing a fly ball.


Angels to call up 1B Efren Navarro from Triple-A
by Ruben Palacios | Staff Writer
(2:12 pm ET) The Angels are expected to promote first baseman Efren Navarro from Triple-A Salt Lake on Tuesday, according to MLB.com.

Navarro hit .260 with five RBI and nine runs scored in 77 at-bats this season with Los Angeles.


Report: Marlins getting calls over demoted CF Marcell Ozuna
by Ruben Palacios | Staff Writer
(2:09 pm ET) The Marlins are receiving inquiries over the availability of demoted center fielder Marcell Ozuna , Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald is reporting.

Miami isn't actively shopping Ozuna, but are taking calls. Teams that have reached out to the Marlins include the Indians.


Cardinals activate Jaime Garcia from DL; option Sam Tuivailala
by Ruben Palacios | Staff Writer
(2:05 pm ET) The Cardinals activated starting pitcher Jaime Garcia from the 15-day disabled list on Tuesday, while also optioning pitcher Samuel Tuivailala to Triple-A Memphis, the team announced.

Garcia was on the disabled list with a lingering groin injury. He is expected to start on Tuesday against the Reds.

Tuivailala has a 1.80 ERA in 10 innings this season.


 
 
 
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