Forgot Log-in or  Password? |  Help  Not a member, Register Now!
      
Fantasy Football Today
Fantasy Football Today Blog
Gameday Inactives
2014 Draft Prep Guide
Downloadable Draft Kit
Mock Drafts
Get Your Draft Board
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Scores
Fantasy Games
Playoff Challenge
Commissioner
Prize Leagues
Free
Office Pool Manager
Game Pick'em
Player Challenge
Fantasy Baseball Today
Fantasy Baseball Today Blog
2015 Draft Prep Guide
Mock Drafts
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Rankings
Projections
Schedules
Probable Pitchers
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injuries
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Message Boards
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Downloadable Draft Kit
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
No Fantasy Teams Found
 
 
 

2012 Draft Prep: ADP movers and shakers

Senior Fantasy Writer
  •  

I suppose you can call it "hype adjustment," or, on the flip side, "overlook correction" -- the phenomenon where drafters take a look at the wisdom of the crowds and decide there's actually not much wisdom there, after all.

We're seeing it on a daily basis, as a handful of players are making moves up and down the Average Draft Position boards; which is an amazingly impressive feat, considering the huge number of drafts being run on CBSSports.com. (Think of it like changing your batting average after five years of baseball -- it takes more than a few hits to really move it). Some moves make sense; others deserve a deeper look.

Don't Just Play, Play to Win!
Fantasy Baseball Today Be sure to catch Fantasy Baseball 360 LIVE at 5 p.m. ET every weekday to dominate your Fantasy leagues. Our writers will have the latest news, analysis and roster trends each afternoon.
Fantasy Baseball TodayCheck out the latest episode!

But as draft season kicks into high gear and the stakes rise from "doing a quick mock" to "these are the players I will care for more deeply than some family members over the next six months," the weight of the picks has increased, and, in turn, ADPs are seeing some shifts. We give two sets of ADPs here at CBSSports.com -- one for H2H points leagues and another for traditional Rotisserie leagues. Some of the players that stick out in each include ...

Head-to-Head ( Current H2H Draft Averages )

Edwin Jackson, SP, Nationals (+2; 201 to 199)
I think as we get closer to the season -- or, perhaps, even in the season -- people are going to realize just how good this Washington pitching staff is. Most of the preseason Fantasy attention has been focused on Stephen Strasburg, but the pitchers lining up behind him -- Jordan Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez and Edwin Jackson -- form a top four that could, on their better days, admirably go to battle with almost any staff in the majors. Jackson's last start was a mess (four earned runs in four innings), which would normally drop him down a couple slots, but I think drafters are slowly coming to realize that Jackson could be an asset to their staffs. The boost also brings Jackson into the top 200 in ADP.

Matt Capps, RP, Twins (-4; 241 to 245)
Capps has given up one run in all of spring training and has shown no indication in the last few days that he'll have another rocky season full of points-reducing blown saves ahead of him. And the man presumably next in line, Glen Perkins, is nowhere to be found on the ADP list. So why the sudden drop? In H2H leagues, Capps will lose value with every blown save, and he's not going to strike out a batter per inning. But both Minnesota and Capps have a pretty solid history with saves. So if Capps keeps sinking in ADPs, he becomes more of a value pick.

David Ortiz, DH, Red Sox (-2; 96 to 98)
Ortiz is only eligible to use at the utility/DH spot, which already puts a bit of a dent in his value. But he's also been pretty cold in spring training as of late, not having homered since March 9 (he has two so far this spring) and striking out six times against two walks. He's a perennial slow starter and doesn't have the greatest track record in spring training over his career (OPS is .761), but drafters may now be plucking up options outside of Ortiz to use in their utility spots (Jesus Montero, for instance, is a younger, more-dynamic DH-only option).

Chris Davis, 1B, Orioles (+3; 325 to 322)
Davis is a really peculiar case, considering one of his major drawbacks is strikeouts, which are going to hurt you in standard H2H leagues. His uptick in ADP might be just a case of people realizing that his grip on the starting first base job in Baltimore is strengthening on the back of a four-game hitting streak (as of Wednesday) that brought his spring average up to .281. Still, eight strikeouts to one walk so far is not a pretty ratio in points leagues.

Rotisserie ( Current Roto Draft Averages )

Chris Davis, 1B, Orioles (-3; from 297 to 300)
In light of Davis' inexplicable rise on the H2H side is his similarly inexplicable drop in Rotisserie leagues. This should be the opposite -- you can dismiss his strikeouts in Roto leagues because they don't count against you (directly). But his rise and fall are backwards. In H2H, you'd want to steer clear, in Roto leagues, you want to ride his power.

Check out our Fantasy Baseball podcast!
Stay a step ahead of your competition in 2014 by checking out our popular Fantasy Baseball Today podcasts. Adam Aizer, Scott White and Al Melchior will entertain you and help you dominate all season.
Latest episode | Subscribe!

Jayson Werth, OF, Nationals (-2; from 123 to 125)
Werth is a great candidate to have a bounceback year in 2012. Ask anyone how many homers he hit last season, and they'd probably guess about 15. But he hit 20. And he threw in 19 steals. Granted, 2011 was a drop-off, overall, from his previous two seasons, but I think people perceive Werth as having had a much worse year, at least in terms of power (his .232 average was the lowest since he was a rookie, and he took a lot of unnecessary shots for the monster contract he signed in the offseason). So far this spring Werth is hitting .286 with two home runs and a 1.089 OPS. Even with the Nationals sending Bryce Harper down to Syracuse on Sunday, Werth still dropped two spots in ADP rankings.

Johan Santana, SP, Mets (+2; from 230 to 228)
I don't think Santana is done with his rise. Owners had kind of put him on the backburner and assumed he'd be back to full strength later in the season. Pessimists assumed his velocity would never be the same and we'd have to temper expectations. We still may have to look at him in a new light, but Santana has at least taken steps in proving he's durable and should be ready for the start of the season. After two encouraging appearances at the beginning of spring, Santana was roughed up by the Tigers on March 16 and saw his ERA balloon to 4.91. But, on Wednesday, he mowed down the Cardinals, giving up just one run in six innings while striking out six batters. It was a welcome development, as he had just two strikeouts in all of spring before the game. He's being taken so low in drafts that even if his K rate drops again and his ERA runs higher than his current 3.38, the fact that he is pitching -- without complication -- should move him up several more slots before opening day, regardless of his performance between then and now.

Ivan Nova, SP, Yankees (-4; from 245 to 249)
The Andy Pettitte Effect! Even though Nova had a wonderful rookie campaign in 2011, it looks like the general consensus is that Pettitte's signing will drop Nova to ... somewhere (the bullpen? Another team?). He's slipping down draft boards and it doesn't look like Phil Hughes or Michael Pineda are getting the same treatment -- Hughes has dropped just one slot, from 289 to 290, while Pineda has actually jumped up a slot, moving from 80 to 79. Nova hasn't exactly helped to soothe the fears of potential drafters, either, putting up a 7.82 ERA so far this spring, giving up four home runs and allowing five earned runs in two separate games.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyBB or Nando Di Fino at @NandoCBS . You can also send our staff an e-mail at fantasybaseball@cbsinteractive.com .

Get player news notifications, manage your team and check scores
- all updated in real time. Download the CBS Fantasy App.

  •  
 
CBSSports Facebook Google Plus
COMMENTS
Conversation powered by Livefyre
 
 
Player News
Mets P Jerry Blevins excited about chance with the team
by Dave Peters | CBSSports.com
(12:21 am ET) Mets pitcher Jerry Blevins is excited about his opportunity with the team, report ESPN.

"I see a huge opportunity with this organization," said Blevins, who is eligible for free agency next winter. "They've got a lot of talent and high expectations. I'm here to do my part. ... We have a chance to shock some people in the East. We've got such high talent. I'd put this rotation against anybody's, and this experience."

In eight innings pitched this spring, Blevins has an ERA of 9.00 with 11 strikeouts and two walks. He has given up eight earned runs and four home runs.


Yankees' Masahiro Tanaka doesn't impress scouts
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(3/31/2015) Yankees pitcher Masahiro Tanaka was 1-1 with a 1.74 ERA this spring. More importantly, he remained healthy, despite the partially torn ligament in his elbow.

But scouts contacted by the Daily News weren't impressed with Tanaka's stuff. 

"I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt based on what he did last year," one Major League scout said. "But would I be worried based on what I’ve seen lately? Yeah, I’d have to be a little worried. ... He’s either saving himself for the season or he’s protecting that elbow a little bit, because his fastball has been around 89-90 (mph), with no life on it today. Two-seamer or four-seamer, it was flat and hittable."


Diamondbacks 1B Paul Goldschmidt goes yard in win over Angels
by Dave Peters | CBSSports.com
(3/31/2015) Diamondbacks first baseman Paul Goldschmidt homered in the team's 8-7 victory over the Angels on Tuesday, reports Rotoworld.

Goldschmidt, 27, also hit two singles, going 3 for 5 on the day. His performance raised his batting average to .255 this spring. The right-hander also has two home runs and five RBI this offseason.


Clint Barmes shaking off slow spring start
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(3/31/2015) Padres infielder Clint Barmes is heating up as spring training closes. 

After getting just four hits in his first 23 at bats, Barmes is four for his last 10. Barmes had no extra base hits in his first 23 at bats, he has a double and a solo homer in the last 10. 

"It's just continuing to work on timing and get my legs underneath me, especially early on in the spring," Barmes said, per U-T San Diego. "Once I felt like, a couple weeks in, I started to get my legs underneath me, then it's just been a process of getting the timing down, defensively as much as offensively."


Braves A.J. Pierzynski catches all nine innings, drives in two runs
by Dave Peters | CBSSports.com
(3/31/2015) Braves catcher A.J. Pierzynski caught all nine innings on Tuesday for the club, reports MLB.com.

Pierzynski went 2 for 5 from the plate, adding two RBI. For the spring, the 38-year-old is batting .344 on 11 hits with one double and one strikeout.


Rays pitchers Colome, McGee, Moore throw bullpen sessions
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(3/31/2015) Rays pitchers Alex Colome (illness), Jake McGee (elbow surgery) and Matt Moore (Tommy John surgery) were each able to throw bullpen sessions Tuesday as a part of their rehab, reports the Tampa Bay Times.

"(Colome) looks like he feels really good," manager Kevin Cash said. "It's exciting to see."

The trio has yet to see any action this spring as they recover from elbow injuries.


Report: Nationals will pay Rich Hill retention bonus
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(3/31/2015) The Nationals will pay pitcher Rich Hill a $100,000 retention bonus if he doesn't make the team, according to a report by the Washington Post, citing a source. As part of the collective bargaining agreement, Hill will receive a June 1 opt-out date, if he isn't called up to the Nationals by that date. 

Report: Kelly Johnson will make Braves' Opening Day roster
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(3/31/2015) Kelly Johnson will make the Braves Opening Day roster, according to a report by Yahoo's Jeff Passan.

Johnson's versatility helped earn him the spot--he can play three infield positions as well as the outfield. The decision to keep Johnson could be a bad sign for Joey Terdoslavich, who was believed to be competing with him for a bench role. 


Mariners trade Erasmo Ramierez to Rays for Mike Montgomery
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(3/31/2015) The Mariners have traded pitcher Erasmo Ramirez to the Rays in exchange for pitcher Mike Montgomery, the teams announced.

Ramirez posted a 1-2 record with a 6.23 ERA and seven strikeouts in five spring training appearances while Montgomery posted a 2.38 ERA with nine strikeouts in 11 1/3 innings pitched.


Reds pitcher Aroldis Chapman fine after 'miscommunication'
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(3/31/2015) Reds pitcher Aroldis Chapman was believed to have suffered a slight hamstring injury in Tuesday's game against the Brewers, but manager Bryan Price may have misunderstood the pitcher, reports MLB.com.

"We went out there to check on him and the hamstring came up, and just with that history we were extra cautious," Price said. "And by the sounds of it, it may be a non-issue completely."

Chapman was visibly upset with Price when he decided to remove him from the game after facing just one batter.

"By the time the smoke cleared, Chappy was back in the dugout and Brayan got back in the dugout after the half-inning, I just think there might've been a misunderstanding," Price said. "So it's fine. It's frustrating for Chappy but in the big picture, nothing critical."


 
 
 
Rankings