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Beyond the Numbers: Wake up to these sleepers

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Just a month or two ago, as we were all scrambling to find hidden bargains in our drafts and auctions, all the talk was of this year's sleepers.

Like Black Friday shoppers, though, we cause so much commotion looking for a good deal that our secret bargains don't stay secret for long. Back in March, I could call Zack Cozart or J.D. Martinez a sleeper and it would have the ring of truth. Of course, many others discovered the qualities of these players that I liked, and they may have talked them up as well. Now that both are off to good starts and owned in more than 80 percent of the leagues on CBSSports.com, the sleeper label won't stick to either of them.

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The shelf life on early spring sleepers often doesn't last far beyond opening day, but that only gives birth to a new crop. The Most Added list on our site is littered with players who have gotten off to fast starts or inherited a more prominent role than what was expected. Most owners are far less excited about players who have slumped early or been delegated to minor roles, but there is a lot more season ahead of us than behind us. The premium placed on the results of the first two weeks provides a new set of market inefficiencies to exploit, as today's slumpers and benchwarmers could be tomorrow's hot waiver commodity.

Particularly overlooked are players who came away from last season with disappointing results. I'm not talking about bounce-back candidates, though, as those were thoroughly discussed during draft season. I'm referring to players whose production was cut short by injury or just a general lack of playing time in 2011. My focus in this column will be on hitters who were highly productive on a per-game basis a year ago, but due to diminished playing time, their year-end stats have left them underappreciated in the early going this season.

Perhaps no one represents the early-season sleeper phenomenon better than Chase Headley. Though he was lacking in the home run department, hitting just four dingers all year, Headley made huge strides in 2011. He became proficient at hitting gap doubles, mashing 28 of them despite playing in just 113 games, and he also walked far more frequently. Despite the lack of home run power, Headley finished with 5.8 Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27), placing him just ahead of Alex Rodriguez and David Wright among third basemen. (If you're unfamiliar with the RC/27 metric, see the glossary at the bottom of the page for an explanation.) Because Headley went down with a broken finger that sidelined him for 39 games late in the year, he wound up ranking just 27th at his position in Head-to-Head Fantasy points and 21st in Rotisserie value.

It's not just an injury that has left Headley so underappreciated that he is owned in only 63 percent of the leagues on CBSSports.com, ranking 23rd in ownership rate among third basemen. Last season, he was cruising into the All-Star break, hitting .299 with 25 doubles, but over his next 18 games, Headley slumped to a .258 average with only three doubles. According to CBSSports.com Senior Baseball Writer Scott Miller, Headley was fatigued from playing every day, but because the Padres were lacking bench depth at that point of the season, he played through it. By the time Headley sustained his finger injury, he had trouble just lifting a bat. As a result, Headley's line drive rate plummeted and his BABIP dropped from .380 before the break to .318 during his 18-game slump.

Even with the late summer swoon, Headley finished with a career-best .289 average, .374 on-base percentage and 21.2 percent line drive rate. While he would like to hit more home runs again (and with four taters in his first 13 games, he is off to a good start), it's not a high priority for Headley. As he told MLB.com this offseason, "There are other things (besides home runs), like driving in guys with runners in scoring position and driving in runs with two outs." Headley has used PETCO Park's spacious dimensions to his advantage, hitting line drives and finding the gaps.

With more playing time this year, Headley has the potential for 40-plus doubles, and with sporadic days off, he should be able to maintain a batting average close to .300 and an on-base percentage near .400. Already this year, Headley is walking at an even higher rate, and he is still getting on base at a .414 clip. However, prior to Wednesday's two-homer game at Colorado, the rest of the 27-year-old's stats were underwhelming, making him an ideal buy-low target. Headley is still vastly underowned and now is the time to get him, before other owners start to see his upside.

Headley is not the only Padre to be underowned and underappreciated in Fantasy. We will take a look at a couple of his teammates whose 2011 stats were also comprimised by limited playing time, as well as a handful of other hitters who could be early-season bargains.

Nick Hundley, C, Padres
Ownership rate: 15 percent
Reason for missed time in 2011: Oblique and elbow injuries resulted in two separate DL trips.
Why he will surprise: Though it looked like an aberration, last season's .288 batting average was not entirely a fluke. Hundley has steadily improved his flyball batting average, which could be the result of increasing comfort hitting away from PETCO Park. Believe it or not, Hundley has consistently been a much better hitter at home, but last year, he finally broke the .250 barrier on the road, hitting .271. After going hitless in his first seven games this year, Hundley has already started to settle into a groove, going 7 for 15 over his last four games.

Jesus Guzman, OF, Padres
Ownership rate: 9 percent
Reason for missed time in 2011: Guzman was in the minors and then in a bench role until the Anthony Rizzo experiment at first base ended shortly after the All-Star break.
Why he will surprise: Guzman is a line drive hitter who is well-suited for PETCO Park. He makes consistent contact and rarely hits infield flies, avoiding easy outs on balls in play. That's why he has been able to post BABIPs of .342 or higher in each of his last four minor league stops. Guzman could be out of a job when Carlos Quentin (knee) returns, possibly within the next couple of weeks, but if he can turn things around soon, don't be surprised if he winds up cutting into the at-bats of Will Venable, Chris Denorfia and Yonder Alonso.

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Nolan Reimold, OF, Orioles
Ownership rate: 52 percent
Reason for missed time in 2011: Reimold started the year in the minors but even after a May recall, he was never able to seize an everyday role in left field.
Why he will surprise: Maybe it's not accurate to call Reimold a sleeper anymore, since his ownership rate has doubled in the last week, but he should still be owned in even more leagues. Reimold's stock dropped two seasons ago when his power inexplicably evaporated, but last season's numbers -- 13 homers in 267 at-bats with Baltimore -- were in line with his other major and minor league seasons. Now that Reimold has an everyday job, he has a chance to hit at least 25 homers and drive in 80 or more runs. Even though he probably won't hit for a high average, Reimold is still worth rostering in most mixed leagues.

Wilson Betemit, 3B, Orioles
Ownership rate: 6 percent
Reason for missed time in 2011: Betemit served primarily in a part-time role with both the Royals and Tigers.
Why he will surprise: Not only should Betemit see steadier playing time with the Orioles, but he is a good bet to reverse last season's disappointing strikeout and walk rates. When Betemit does make contact, he has proven himself to be a very good hitter on balls in play. He is not only likely to help with batting average and on-base percentage, but playing home games at Oriole Park at Camden Yards should boost Betemit's home run total as well.

Marco Scutaro, 2B, Rockies
Ownership rate: 59 percent
Reason for missed time in 2011: Scutaro went on the DL with an oblique injury, but even when healthy, he split time at shortstop for part of the year with Jed Lowrie.
Why he will surprise: Scutaro has the second base job in Colorado all to himself, and as a prolific doubles hitter, he can only benefit from Coors Field's spacious outfield dimensions. He is an excellent contact hitter -- he has not struck out through his first 10 games -- but he has yet to notch a flyball base hit. Those will come with time, so now is your opportunity to grab him in standard mixed leagues. Even now, he should be starting in far more than 28 percent of our leagues.

Chris Heisey, OF, Reds
Ownership rate: 11 percent
Reason for missed time in 2011: Heisey was mainly a part-timer, plus he missed nearly a month with an oblique injury.
Why he will surprise: Like Reimold, Heisey is a proven power hitter playing in a very good home run park, but he does not have the benefit of an everyday role. So far, Ryan Ludwick has received the majority of the starts in left field, but he is in the midst of a steep decline and is off to a slow start. Over time, Heisey should grab an increasingly large share of playing time, making him a viable start in deeper mixed leagues.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyBB or Al Melchior at @almelccbs . You can also e-mail us at fantasybaseball@cbsinteractive.com .

Glossary
xFIP: Also known as Expected Fielding Independent Pitching. It is an estimate of what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based on factors that a pitcher can control, such as strikeouts, walks and flyballs. xFIP is a derivative of FIP, which was developed by Tom Tango.
Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James
Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James
GO/AO -- Ground out-fly out ratio
GB/FB -- Ground ball-fly ball ratio
Batting Average per Balls in Play (BABIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30%
Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth
Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks)
Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats

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Player News
Rangers SP Matt Harrison allows six runs in Monday's loss
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(11:49 pm ET) Rangers pitcher Matt Harrison struggled throughout his start Monday against the Yankees, which the Rangers lost 6-2.

Harrison allowed six runs on six hits over six innings of work. He also struck out two and walked two. He gave up a two-run home run to Didi Gregorius in the third inning and a solo home run to Alex Rodriguez in the sixth. His ERA rose from 5.40 to 6.75.

Harrison (1-2) has one quality start over his three starts this season.


White Sox closer David Robertson shaky in earning save
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(11:42 pm ET) White Sox closer David Robertson continued to be shaky in his role Monday night, but a three-run lead gave him some leeway.

Robertson retired the first two Red Sox at Fenway Park before trouble ensued. A walk, RBI single to Pablo Sandoval and another walk allowed the winning run to come to the plate. But Robertson induced Ryan Hanigan to ground out to secure his 22nd save.

The right-hander has given up two runs on three hits and three walks over his last three appearances.


Yankees to start pitcher Chris Capuano on Tuesday
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(11:36 pm ET) The Yankees will turn to pitcher Chris Capuano to start Tuesday's game at Texas, reports Newsday.

Tuesday would be Capuano's fourth start of the season. He is 0-4 with a 5.64 ERA over 30 1/3 innings this season.


Blown lead makes outing tough for White Sox SP John Danks
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(11:32 pm ET) The White Sox won their fifth straight in Boston on Monday night - no thanks to Danks.

Starter John Danks was rocked by the Red Sox to the tune of six earned runs on nine hits in 4 1/3 innings. He walked one and fanned two.

He certainly didn't take advantage of a four-run first for his team. That lead was gone by the second, courtesy of a two-run homer by David Ortiz and RBI double by Mookie Betts. Four straight singles in the fourth and Pablo Sandoval double in the fifth sent him to the showers.

Danks had managed three quality starts in his previous four outings. But he is still saddled with a poor 4.97 ERA.


Yankees SP Ivan Nova experiences arm fatigue in Monday's win
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(11:30 pm ET) Yankees pitcher Ivan Nova was only able to go five innings during Monday's 6-2 win over the Rangers because of arm fatigue, reports MLB.com. After the game, Nova said he was not worried about the fatigue

Despite only lasting five innings, Nova was able to receive the win after allowing two runs on five hits. He also struck out three and walked two. Nova is now 3-3 with a 3.38 ERA.

After losing three starts in a row, Nova is 2-0 in his last two appearances. He has two quality starts in six outings this season.


Red Sox SP Joe Kelly clobbered again Monday night
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(11:24 pm ET) One might have believed it unlikely that Red Sox starter Joe Kelly would pitch worse Monday night than he had been in recent outings. But he pulled it off.

Kelly was rocked for five runs on seven hits in 3 1/3 innings before his merciful removal in Boston. He could only be thankful that his team scored enough runs to keep him from accepting his third straight defeat.

The right-hander barely survived the first. He allowed three extra-base hits to start the game, including an RBI triple by Tyler Saladino and run-scoring double by Melky Cabrera. He let the first six batters reach in the four-run frame. A double and RBI single by Jose Abreu in the third all but signaled his departure.

Kelly has given up 20 runs in his last 23 1/3 innings pitched in weakening his ERA on the year to 5.94, its highest point since May 25.


Cardinals' Kolten Wong hits grand slam in Monday's win
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(11:23 pm ET) Cardinals second baseman Kolten Wong provided all the offense the Cardinals would need during Monday's 4-1 win over the Reds.

Wong hit a grand slam off Raisel Iglesias in the fourth inning for his 11th home run of the season. It was his only hit in three at-bats during the contest.

Prior to Monday's win, Wong was hitting .240 with one home run and one RBI in his last 11 games.


Cardinals RP Trevor Rosenthal earns save Monday
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(11:19 pm ET) Cardinals pitcher Trevor Rosenthal pitched a perfect ninth inning to record his 31st save of the season during Monday's 4-1 win over the Reds. He also struck out one batter.

Rosenthal is now 31 for 33 in save chances this season.


Reds SP Raisel Iglesias receives loss in Monday's start
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(11:13 pm ET) Reds pitcher Raisel Iglesias only made one mistake in his start Monday against the Cardinals, but it cost him the game in the 4-1 loss.

Iglesias allowed a grand slam to Kolten Wong in the fourth inning. The four runs were the only runs Iglesias surrendered over six innings. He gave up six hits while striking out seven and not walking a batter. He is now 1-3 with a 5.53 ERA.

Iglesias has not earned a win since May 13. He has one quality start in seven starts this season.


Report: Nationals top suitor list for Padres closer Craig Kimbrel
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(11:11 pm ET) The Nationals are reportedly the most likely team to land Padres closer Craig Kimbrel despite their continued interest in Reds counterpart Aroldis Chapman.

General manager Mike Rizzo appears determined to find a lights-out closer.

"I almost bet my house that he will do something big," a source close to Rizzo told Fox Sports MLB insider Ken Rosenthal.

Kimbrel has hit his stride after a rough patch early in the season and is now among the hottest closers in the game.


 
 
 
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