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Beyond the Numbers: Wake up to these sleepers

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Just a month or two ago, as we were all scrambling to find hidden bargains in our drafts and auctions, all the talk was of this year's sleepers.

Like Black Friday shoppers, though, we cause so much commotion looking for a good deal that our secret bargains don't stay secret for long. Back in March, I could call Zack Cozart or J.D. Martinez a sleeper and it would have the ring of truth. Of course, many others discovered the qualities of these players that I liked, and they may have talked them up as well. Now that both are off to good starts and owned in more than 80 percent of the leagues on CBSSports.com, the sleeper label won't stick to either of them.

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The shelf life on early spring sleepers often doesn't last far beyond opening day, but that only gives birth to a new crop. The Most Added list on our site is littered with players who have gotten off to fast starts or inherited a more prominent role than what was expected. Most owners are far less excited about players who have slumped early or been delegated to minor roles, but there is a lot more season ahead of us than behind us. The premium placed on the results of the first two weeks provides a new set of market inefficiencies to exploit, as today's slumpers and benchwarmers could be tomorrow's hot waiver commodity.

Particularly overlooked are players who came away from last season with disappointing results. I'm not talking about bounce-back candidates, though, as those were thoroughly discussed during draft season. I'm referring to players whose production was cut short by injury or just a general lack of playing time in 2011. My focus in this column will be on hitters who were highly productive on a per-game basis a year ago, but due to diminished playing time, their year-end stats have left them underappreciated in the early going this season.

Perhaps no one represents the early-season sleeper phenomenon better than Chase Headley. Though he was lacking in the home run department, hitting just four dingers all year, Headley made huge strides in 2011. He became proficient at hitting gap doubles, mashing 28 of them despite playing in just 113 games, and he also walked far more frequently. Despite the lack of home run power, Headley finished with 5.8 Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27), placing him just ahead of Alex Rodriguez and David Wright among third basemen. (If you're unfamiliar with the RC/27 metric, see the glossary at the bottom of the page for an explanation.) Because Headley went down with a broken finger that sidelined him for 39 games late in the year, he wound up ranking just 27th at his position in Head-to-Head Fantasy points and 21st in Rotisserie value.

It's not just an injury that has left Headley so underappreciated that he is owned in only 63 percent of the leagues on CBSSports.com, ranking 23rd in ownership rate among third basemen. Last season, he was cruising into the All-Star break, hitting .299 with 25 doubles, but over his next 18 games, Headley slumped to a .258 average with only three doubles. According to CBSSports.com Senior Baseball Writer Scott Miller, Headley was fatigued from playing every day, but because the Padres were lacking bench depth at that point of the season, he played through it. By the time Headley sustained his finger injury, he had trouble just lifting a bat. As a result, Headley's line drive rate plummeted and his BABIP dropped from .380 before the break to .318 during his 18-game slump.

Even with the late summer swoon, Headley finished with a career-best .289 average, .374 on-base percentage and 21.2 percent line drive rate. While he would like to hit more home runs again (and with four taters in his first 13 games, he is off to a good start), it's not a high priority for Headley. As he told MLB.com this offseason, "There are other things (besides home runs), like driving in guys with runners in scoring position and driving in runs with two outs." Headley has used PETCO Park's spacious dimensions to his advantage, hitting line drives and finding the gaps.

With more playing time this year, Headley has the potential for 40-plus doubles, and with sporadic days off, he should be able to maintain a batting average close to .300 and an on-base percentage near .400. Already this year, Headley is walking at an even higher rate, and he is still getting on base at a .414 clip. However, prior to Wednesday's two-homer game at Colorado, the rest of the 27-year-old's stats were underwhelming, making him an ideal buy-low target. Headley is still vastly underowned and now is the time to get him, before other owners start to see his upside.

Headley is not the only Padre to be underowned and underappreciated in Fantasy. We will take a look at a couple of his teammates whose 2011 stats were also comprimised by limited playing time, as well as a handful of other hitters who could be early-season bargains.

Nick Hundley, C, Padres
Ownership rate: 15 percent
Reason for missed time in 2011: Oblique and elbow injuries resulted in two separate DL trips.
Why he will surprise: Though it looked like an aberration, last season's .288 batting average was not entirely a fluke. Hundley has steadily improved his flyball batting average, which could be the result of increasing comfort hitting away from PETCO Park. Believe it or not, Hundley has consistently been a much better hitter at home, but last year, he finally broke the .250 barrier on the road, hitting .271. After going hitless in his first seven games this year, Hundley has already started to settle into a groove, going 7 for 15 over his last four games.

Jesus Guzman, OF, Padres
Ownership rate: 9 percent
Reason for missed time in 2011: Guzman was in the minors and then in a bench role until the Anthony Rizzo experiment at first base ended shortly after the All-Star break.
Why he will surprise: Guzman is a line drive hitter who is well-suited for PETCO Park. He makes consistent contact and rarely hits infield flies, avoiding easy outs on balls in play. That's why he has been able to post BABIPs of .342 or higher in each of his last four minor league stops. Guzman could be out of a job when Carlos Quentin (knee) returns, possibly within the next couple of weeks, but if he can turn things around soon, don't be surprised if he winds up cutting into the at-bats of Will Venable, Chris Denorfia and Yonder Alonso.

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Nolan Reimold, OF, Orioles
Ownership rate: 52 percent
Reason for missed time in 2011: Reimold started the year in the minors but even after a May recall, he was never able to seize an everyday role in left field.
Why he will surprise: Maybe it's not accurate to call Reimold a sleeper anymore, since his ownership rate has doubled in the last week, but he should still be owned in even more leagues. Reimold's stock dropped two seasons ago when his power inexplicably evaporated, but last season's numbers -- 13 homers in 267 at-bats with Baltimore -- were in line with his other major and minor league seasons. Now that Reimold has an everyday job, he has a chance to hit at least 25 homers and drive in 80 or more runs. Even though he probably won't hit for a high average, Reimold is still worth rostering in most mixed leagues.

Wilson Betemit, 3B, Orioles
Ownership rate: 6 percent
Reason for missed time in 2011: Betemit served primarily in a part-time role with both the Royals and Tigers.
Why he will surprise: Not only should Betemit see steadier playing time with the Orioles, but he is a good bet to reverse last season's disappointing strikeout and walk rates. When Betemit does make contact, he has proven himself to be a very good hitter on balls in play. He is not only likely to help with batting average and on-base percentage, but playing home games at Oriole Park at Camden Yards should boost Betemit's home run total as well.

Marco Scutaro, 2B, Rockies
Ownership rate: 59 percent
Reason for missed time in 2011: Scutaro went on the DL with an oblique injury, but even when healthy, he split time at shortstop for part of the year with Jed Lowrie.
Why he will surprise: Scutaro has the second base job in Colorado all to himself, and as a prolific doubles hitter, he can only benefit from Coors Field's spacious outfield dimensions. He is an excellent contact hitter -- he has not struck out through his first 10 games -- but he has yet to notch a flyball base hit. Those will come with time, so now is your opportunity to grab him in standard mixed leagues. Even now, he should be starting in far more than 28 percent of our leagues.

Chris Heisey, OF, Reds
Ownership rate: 11 percent
Reason for missed time in 2011: Heisey was mainly a part-timer, plus he missed nearly a month with an oblique injury.
Why he will surprise: Like Reimold, Heisey is a proven power hitter playing in a very good home run park, but he does not have the benefit of an everyday role. So far, Ryan Ludwick has received the majority of the starts in left field, but he is in the midst of a steep decline and is off to a slow start. Over time, Heisey should grab an increasingly large share of playing time, making him a viable start in deeper mixed leagues.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyBB or Al Melchior at @almelccbs . You can also e-mail us at fantasybaseball@cbsinteractive.com .

Glossary
xFIP: Also known as Expected Fielding Independent Pitching. It is an estimate of what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based on factors that a pitcher can control, such as strikeouts, walks and flyballs. xFIP is a derivative of FIP, which was developed by Tom Tango.
Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James
Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James
GO/AO -- Ground out-fly out ratio
GB/FB -- Ground ball-fly ball ratio
Batting Average per Balls in Play (BABIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30%
Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth
Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks)
Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats

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Player News
Angels 1B Albert Pujols not too concerned about hand/wrist bruise
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(10:25 am ET) Angels first baseman Albert Pujols didn't seem overly bothered Friday by a left hand/wrist injury he suffered Wednesday against the Blue Jays after getting hit by a pitch. Pujols, who sat out Thursday, doubled and homered in a 12-5 win Friday at Boston.

"It still bothered me a little bit, but it'll go away in a couple days," Pujols said, per MLB.com. "It's one of those things, day by day. It's just a bruise, and it's getting better. I have to give a lot of credit to the trainers. They've done a great job with it."


Delgado gets win in extra-innings over Cubs
by Ruben Palacios | Staff Writer
(10:19 am ET) Diamondbacks reliever Randall Delgado earned the win in his team's 5-4 victory over the Cubs on Friday.

Delgado bounced back from a blown save against the Marlins on May 21 to record the win. He tossed a scoreless inning against the Cubs, bringing his ERA to 4.05 for the season.


Blue Jays 3B Josh Donaldson back in lineup Saturday
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(10:18 am ET) Blue Jays third baseman Josh Donaldson returned to the starting lineup Saturday against the Mariners after he was sidelined by calf soreness Friday. Donaldson did make a pinch-hit appearance Friday.

Donaldson heads into Saturday's game with a .299/.342/.507/.850 slash line over his last 18 games. 

Left-hander James Paxton is on the mound for Seattle. Donaldson is batting .389 with one double, three home runs and six RBI in nine games against left-handed starters in 2015.


Nick Ahmed played hero role in extra-inning win versus Cubs
by Ruben Palacios | Staff Writer
(10:10 am ET) Diamondbacks shortstop Nick Ahmed was the unlikely hero on Friday night. But unlikely or not, Ahmed's single in the 13th inning gave the Diamondbacks a 5-4 win over the Cubs.

Ahmed, who entered the game batting .194, went 3 for 6 with a home run and two RBI.

''I made some improvements, made some adjustments,'' Ahmed said. ''I'm starting to put the bat on the ball, starting to see it a lot better. The coaches here have been awesome - (hitting coach) Turner Ward and (assistant hitting coach) Mark Grace, and even my teammates here, they just stick with me, stay behind me, keep instilling confidence in me even though I'm struggling. That helped a lot.''

Ahmed is hitting .212/.281/.260 with a home run and eight RBI in 104 at-bats this season.


Royals' Chris Young making strong case to remain in rotation
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(10:10 am ET) Royals veteran pitcher Chris Young turned in another outstanding performance Friday against the Cardinals, improving to 3-0 with a 0.40 ERA in four starts this season.

Young still could head back to the bullpen once Jason Vargas returns from an elbow injury, but manager Ned Yost said it's too early to make any decisions or assumptions

"I'm not even going there," Yost said, per MLB.com. "Nice try, though. When we get to the point where we have to make a decision, we'll do it like we always do. We'll sit down with the coaches, with [general manager] Dayton [Moore] and do what's right."

Young seems fine with whatever role the Royals ask of him.

"It doesn't matter to me," he said. "One thing the bullpen taught me is to make one good pitch at a time, take care of one batter at a time. The numbers all even out through time. I'm not worried or concerned about that. I just like the element of competition of being out there."


Diamondbacks' Pollock hits safely four times in win
by Ruben Palacios | Staff Writer
(10:03 am ET) Diamondbacks centerfielder A.J. Pollock could not be stopped in his team's 5-4 win against the Cubs on Friday.

Pollock went 4 of 6 with a double and a triple. Pollock's double came in the 10th inning with the Diamondbacks trailing the Cubs. Teammate Paul Goldschmidt followed up the double with a game-tying two-run homer.

Pollock is hitting .625/.647/1.063 with a home run and three RBI in his last four games.


Tigers' Ausmus using RP Alex Wilson in a variety of situations
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(9:57 am ET) Since his recall from the minors in late April, Tigers reliever Alex Wilson has quietly put together a nice string of outings. He is 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA in 10 appearances.

"I can't really give you his role because I use him all over the place," Tigers manager Brad Ausmus said Thursday, per MLive.com. "He can pitch -- he was going to go back out for the next inning [Thursday against the Astros] if we don't score, so he would have been out for a third -- long like that, he can get a couple of righties out if we need it in the seventh or eighth. He doesn't seem to be bothered by the tight game, so he's got a lot of versatility."

Wilson's two-inning outing Thursday was the sixth time this season he has pitched longer than an inning and the fourth time he's gone at least two frames.

"Ya know, I'm just doing what I can," Wilson said. "I'm a grinder -- that's what I've always done. I feel like there is a little bit of a role, I am kind of the long guy, but the kind of guy you can throw in and try and get a couple of ground ball or couple quick outs if need be. I'm OK with being the swingman of the bullpen, I could you could call it. But I'm happy with it."


Starlin Castro knocks two hits against Diamondbacks
by Ruben Palacios | Staff Writer
(9:55 am ET) Cubs shortstop Starlin Castro recorded two hits in his team's 5-4 loss to the Diamondbacks on Friday.

Castro went 2 for 6 with a double and an RBI. He is hitting .274/.305/.351 for the season with three home runs and 24 RBI in 168 at-bats.


Cubs' Lester goes seven innings in no-decision
by Ruben Palacios | Staff Writer
(9:50 am ET) Cubs starting pitcher Jon Lester tossed seven innings and allowed two earned runs in a no-decision on Friday against the Diamondbacks.

The outing was Lester's first no-decision since April 24, he had produced four consecutive wins May before Friday. Lester recorded four strikeouts while allowing five hits and walking two batters.

Lester has posted a 3.56 ERA this season in 55.2 innings.


A's place OF Coco Crisp (neck) on 15-day DL
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(9:50 am ET) The Athletics placed outfielder Coco Crisp on the 15-day disabled list Saturday due to a neck injury. Starting pitcher Kendall Graveman was recalled from Triple-A Nashville to take Crisp's spot on the roster.

Crisp, who has not played since May 19, will not have surgery because the operation could potentially end his career. The veteran outfielder has struggled in 2015, batting just .044 (2 for 45) in 13 games.


 
 
 
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