Shuffling the Rotations for Week 5
One month into the season, the Top 70 doesn't look quite the way that many would have imagined it on opening day.
Ubaldo Jimenez, Clay Buchholz and Francisco Liriano have not given owners much of value, and even at this early stage, they are too risky to start in standard mixed leagues. Some may put Tim Lincecum in the same category, though I have enough hope for him returning to his elite level of production to wedge him into this week's ranking, albeit in the lowly 68th spot. You may also not have expected to see rotation newbies like Chris Sale, Lance Lynn or Drew Smyly on our list of viable starters for standard mixed leagues, but all three make an appearance this week.
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Cliff Lee's name was gracing the very top of this list last week ... that is, until he was placed on the 15-day disabled list with an oblique strain. He is absent once again on the list for Fantasy Week 5 (April 30-May 6), but there is a chance that he could be activated for a Friday start against the Nationals. Should the Phillies commit to activating Lee this week prior to Monday's lineup deadline, Lee returns to must-start status, but owners may have to wait until Fantasy Week 6 (May 7-13) to start him again.
Another pitcher not making the list is Jeff Samardzija, though the last spot came down to him and Jason Hammel. Both have been pleasant surprises, and both have two-start weeks ahead, but I opted to give the edge to Hammel, who has the longer track record of success. The last one-start pitcher to get whacked from the list was -- believe it or not -- A.J. Burnett, who handled the Cardinals and Braves in his first starts back from the DL.
But enough about the pitchers who didn't make the cut ... here are the 70 who are safe to use in standard mixed leagues this week.
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| Rank | Player | Start 1 | Start 2 | Stat of note |
| 1 | Cole Hamels | @ATL (Beachy) | @WAS (Zimmermann) | Has issued more than one walk in only one of last eight starts |
| Hamels is getting more whiffs so far this season, and he has issued a total of just three walks. | ||||
| 2 | C.J. Wilson | MIN (Blackburn) | TOR (Drabek) | Career 3.02 ERA at Angel Stadium of Anaheim |
| Wilson's had only one home start so far, but he has fared well at his new park over his career. | ||||
| 3 | Felix Hernandez | @TB (Hellickson) | MIN (Marquis) | 91.7 mph average fastball velocity |
| Hernandez is throwing with less gas this year, but he's getting more called strikes on his fastball and slider. | ||||
| 4 | Matt Cain | MIA (Nolasco) | MIL (Wolf) | 19 percent infield fly rate |
| Cain's command has been razor-sharp, and he hasn't allowed much hard contact. | ||||
| 5 | Justin Verlander | KC (Mendoza) | N/A | 0.91 WHIP since 2011 |
| Friday's start against the Yankees was the first this season in which Verlander allowed more hits than innings pitched. | ||||
| 6 | Jered Weaver | MIN (Hendriks) | N/A | Career 0.8 HR/9 at home |
| Weaver can be homer-prone in other venues, but he does a great job of keeping the ball from leaving Angel Stadium of Anaheim. | ||||
| 7 | Clayton Kershaw | @COL (Pomeranz) | N/A | 59 percent ground ball rate |
| The ability to induce grounders was the one area where Kershaw hadn't excelled ... until now. | ||||
| 8 | Roy Halladay | @ATL (Hanson) | N/A | 12 percent swinging strike rate |
| Halladay isn't getting many Ks yet, but he is still getting lots of swings-and-misses. | ||||
| 9 | Jordan Zimmermann | ARI (Cahill) | PHI (Hamels) | .277 opponents SLG |
| Zimmermann has pitched to contact, but he has allowed only two flyball base hits through his first four starts. | ||||
| 10 | Zack Greinke | @SF (Bumgarner) | N/A | .387 BABIP |
| Greinke is likely to give up far fewer hits on balls in play going forward, helping to reduce his 4.56 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. | ||||
| 11 | James Shields | SEA (Beavan) | N/A | Career 3.38 ERA at home |
| The Mariners have been scoring runs this year, but Shields is still tough to beat at the Trop. | ||||
| 12 | Ian Kennedy | @WAS (Detwiler) | N/A | 68 percent strikes thrown (entering Sat.) |
| Kennedy became a very good control pitcher last season, and he hasn't given back any of his gains. | ||||
| 13 | Stephen Strasburg | PHI (Kendrick) | N/A | 10 consecutive starts without a HR allowed (entering Sat.) |
| The Phillies have been power-deprived this year, so Strasburg should continue to keep the gopher ball at bay. | ||||
| 14 | David Price | OAK (Ross) | N/A | 1.2 GO/AO ratio |
| Price is on pace to post his third straight season with an increase in ground ball rate. | ||||
| 15 | Josh Johnson | @SD (Bass) | N/A | .293 opponents' Avg on grounders |
| The Marlins' infield defense hasn't been very good, but Johnson is unlikely to give up so many ground ball base hits from here on out. | ||||
| 16 | Brandon Beachy | PHI (Hamels) | @COL (Nicasio) | 49 percent ground ball rate |
| Beachy established himself as a flyball pitcher last year, but if he can continue this season's ground ball trend, he can escape Coors Field unscathed. | ||||
| 17 | Adam Wainwright | PIT (Morton) | @HOU (Norris) | 2.88 xFIP |
| Wainwright's xFIP shows that if his early homer binge was indeed a fluke, he is back to being the elite hurler he was before Tommy John surgery. | ||||
| 18 | CC Sabathia | @KC (Chen) | N/A | 60 percent strand rate |
| Sabathia's peripherals are not much different than usual, but he's just had trouble leaving runners on base, which bodes well for a turnaround. | ||||
| 19 | Shaun Marcum | @SD (Volquez) | N/A | Career 7.9 K/9 in first half |
| Marcum's late-season troubles a year ago were nothing new; he has helped more with strikeouts earlier in the year throughout his career. | ||||
| 20 | Matt Garza | LAD (Billingsley) | N/A | Career 2.34 ERA at Wrigley Field |
| Garza's move to the Friendly Confines last season hasn't hurt him one bit, as he has held hitters to a combined .217 batting average there. | ||||
| 21 | Dan Haren | TOR (Morrow) | N/A | Opponents' .533 Avg on balls in air (entering Sat.) |
| Haren has a lower-than-average line drive rate, so his luck on airborne balls in play should improve. | ||||
| 22 | Yovani Gallardo | @SD (Luebke) | N/A | 28 Ks in 21 1/3 career innings vs. SD |
| Gallardo got clubbed by the Cardinals on Friday, but he should have a much easier time with the Padres in Week 5. | ||||
| 23 | Chris Sale | CLE (Jimenez) | @DET (Below) | 65 percent strikes thrown |
| Sale has actually shown stronger command of the strike zone in his four starts than in his 94 1/3 innings of relief work. | ||||
| 24 | Yu Darvish | @TOR (Drabek) | @CLE (Jimenez) | Opponents' .069 Isolated Power |
| For those unfamiliar with Isolated Power, Darvish has essentially turned the average opposing hitter into Jamey Carroll. | ||||
| 25 | Mat Latos | @PIT (McDonald) | N/A | 15 percent line drive rate since 2010 |
| Hitters are connecting off Latos more often this year, but he has a consistent ability to avoid hard contact. | ||||
| 26 | Tommy Hanson | PHI (Halladay) | N/A | Career 2.23 ERA vs. PHI |
| Hanson has kept the Phillies in check over seven previous starts, and this is far from the toughest Phils' lineup that he has had to face. | ||||
| 27 | Madison Bumgarner | MIL (Greinke) | N/A | 7.8 percent swinging strike rate |
| Bumgarner is getting fewer whiffs overall, but he's still getting them on his fastball and curveball; it's mainly his slider that's been more hittable. | ||||
| 28 | Josh Beckett | BAL (Hunter) | N/A | 92 mph fastball velocity on Tues. vs. MIN |
| Beckett's K-rate has been dragged down by just one start, but it's also encouraging to see that his velocity rebounded in his start against the Twins. | ||||
| 29 | Vance Worley | CHC (Volstad) | @WAS (Gonzalez) | Allowed 5 RBI on 4 HRs |
| Worley has been a bit lucky that there haven't been more men on base when he has allowed homers this year, but his xFIP is still just 3.11. | ||||
| 30 | Anibal Sanchez | @SF (Vogelsong) | N/A | 3.3 K/BB since 2011 (entering Sat.) |
| The control issues that often plagued Sanchez over the first five years of his career appear to be long gone. | ||||
| 31 | Gio Gonzalez | PHI (Worley) | N/A | Has not allowed an ER in 20 straight innings |
| Gonzalez is bound to regress to the mean, but lately it's been hard to find a flaw in his game. | ||||
| 32 | Cory Luebke | MIL (Gallardo) | N/A | 12 Ks over last 21 innings |
| It's a small sample but still a trend worth tracking. Are hitters starting to figure Luebke out? | ||||
| 33 | Johnny Cueto | @PIT (Correia) | N/A | Career 2.70 ERA vs. PIT |
| The Pirates have scored the fewest runs in the majors, so Cueto should continue his pattern of mastery against them. | ||||
| 34 | Matt Moore | SEA (Noesi) | OAK (Milone) | 72 strikes in 100 pitches on Thurs. vs. LAA |
| Moore is still struggling with efficiency, but his improved command in his most recent start was good to see. | ||||
| 35 | Jeremy Hellickson | SEA (Hernandez) | OAK (Colon) | .221 BABIP |
| Hellickson led the majors with an ultra-low .224 BABIP a year ago, and improbably, he has an even lower rate now. | ||||
| 36 | Brandon McCarthy | @BOS (Bard) | N/A | Allowed 2 ER or fewer in 5 of 6 starts |
| McCarthy doesn't have flashy stats, but since last season, he has become remarkably consistent. | ||||
| 37 | Jon Lester | BAL (Chen) | N/A | 17 percent foul ball rate |
| Don't fret about Lester's 6.0 K/9; it's a 13 percent decrease in foul balls that has been the biggest contributor to his drop in strikeouts. | ||||
| 38 | Hiroki Kuroda | BAL (Hammel) | @KC (Sanchez) | 67 percent quality start rate since 2010 |
| Kuroda is just an average strikeout pitcher, but he does everything else well enough to be a reliable start in most weeks. | ||||
| 39 | Erik Bedard | @STL (Westbrook) | N/A | 10 percent swinging strike rate on April 22 vs. STL |
| Whiffs have been harder to come by for Bedard this year, but he had success against the Cardinals and he gets them again in Week 5. | ||||
| 40 | Colby Lewis | @CLE (Gomez) | N/A | Career 26.7 AB per HR allowed vs. lefties |
| Lewis gives up plenty of long balls to lefties, but he's actually a little stingier than he is against righties (26.2 AB per HR). That's mild good news for his start vs. CLE. | ||||
| 41 | R.A. Dickey | @HOU (Norris) | ARI (Cahill) | 5 BBs in 30 2/3 career innings vs. HOU |
| Dickey's emergence as a control pitcher has made him Fantasy-relevant and he has been especially sharp against the Astros. | ||||
| 42 | Lance Lynn | PIT (Burnett) | N/A | Has allowed one run in 5 of 6 career starts |
| Lynn has been succeeding by getting batters to take called strikes at an extremely high level. He should succeed against the Pirates, even though they have a free-swinging lineup. | ||||
| 43 | Wandy Rodriguez | NYM (Schwinden) | N/A | 8 BBs in 31 1/3 innings |
| Rodriguez has been unusually stingy with walks this year, though the Mets -- the NL leader in walk rate -- will test him. | ||||
| 44 | Justin Masterson | @CHW (Danks) | N/A | 3.63 pitches per plate appearance |
| Masterson has had issues with his command this season, but oddly enough, he has been more efficient on a per-batter basis than ever. | ||||
| 45 | Mark Buehrle | ARI (Corbin) | @SD (Richard) | 3.62 runs of support per nine innings |
| Buehrle has pitched well enough to earn Ws in all of his starts, but only seven NL starters have received less run support. | ||||
| 46 | Ricky Romero | TEX (Harrison) | N/A | Career 0.92 ERA vs. TEX |
| With a diminished K-rate and a tough opponent, this might look like a bad week to start Romero, but he has thrived in four prior starts agaisnt the Rangers. | ||||
| 47 | Jaime Garcia | @HOU (Lyles) | N/A | .304 opponents' ground ball Avg |
| Garcia's K's are down, but it's the ground ball base hits that have been killing his WHIP. Improvement is likely on the way. | ||||
| 48 | Derek Holland | @CLE (Lowe) | N/A | Career 2.55 ERA vs. CLE |
| For Holland more than most pitchers, it's all about the matchup. He's had past success against the Indians and should continue the trend. | ||||
| 49 | Jonathon Niese | @HOU (Happ) | N/A | .105 flyball BABIP |
| Niese would have had much better results in 2011 if not for a high rate of in-the-park flyball hits, but his rate has normalized so far this year. | ||||
| 50 | Mike Minor | PIT (McDonald) | @COL (Moyer) | 0.9 GO/AO |
| Minor is an improved pitcher this year, but with some mild flyball tendencies, he could have a rough start at Colorado. | ||||
| 51 | Jake Peavy | @DET (Smyly) | N/A | 75 percent strand rate |
| Peavy would have likely posted sub-4.00 ERAs in each of the last two years if he had stranded more runners, but that's not been a problem in 2012. | ||||
| 52 | Ricky Nolasco | @SF (Cain) | @SD (Wieland) | 54 percent quality start rate since 2011 |
| Nolasco has yet to prove himself as a reliable standard mixed league option, but with two mediocre offenses on his plate, he can be trusted this coming week. | ||||
| 53 | Drew Smyly | CHW (Peavy) | N/A | 22 Ks in 22 innings |
| Smyly stranded every one of his baserunners for the month of April, but even if he hadn't, he would have had a sensational start to his big league career. | ||||
| 54 | Juan Nicasio | LAD (Harang) | ATL (Beachy) | Career .235 Avg vs. righties |
| The Braves will be a tough assignment for Nicasio, but his track record against righties provides hope that he can shut down Matt Kemp and the Dodgers. | ||||
| 55 | Jeff Niemann | SEA (Millwood) | N/A | 3.29 xFIP (entering Sat.) |
| Niemann's strikeout and ground ball rates have soared in the early going, and only a 62 percent strand rate has hurt his ERA. | ||||
| 56 | Ivan Nova | BAL (Arrieta) | N/A | Career 3.34 ERA vs. BAL |
| Nova hasn't always had success in his home starts, but with the third-lowest team batting average in the AL, the Orioles should provide few challenges. | ||||
| 57 | Johan Santana | ARI (Corbin) | N/A | 12.5 percent swinging strike rate |
| Santana's fastball might sit in the upper 80s, but he can still get batters to fan with regularity. | ||||
| 58 | Bronson Arroyo | CHC (Samardzija) | @PIT (Morton) | 3.20 pitches per plate appearance |
| Arroyo has always pitched with economy, but he leads the majors with a ridiculously-low P/PA ratio, which helps him to rack up innings. | ||||
| 59 | Bud Norris | NYM (Dickey) | STL (Wainwright) | Career opponents' .240 Avg at home |
| Norris has allowed homers more often at Minute Maid Park than on the road, but he's been more effective at home, as he has held batters to a low batting average. | ||||
| 60 | Bartolo Colon | @TB (Hellickson) | N/A | Career 3.31 ERA at Tropicana Field |
| Colon is still something of a risk in stadiums geared for offense, but he is safe to start when he pitches in Tampa Bay. | ||||
| 61 | Trevor Cahill | @WAS (Zimmermann) | @NYM (Dickey) | 6 BBs in last 3 starts (18 1/3 innings) |
| Cahill owns an ugly 4.4 BB/9, but that's weighed down by his wild first start. He's better than his overall stat line indicates. | ||||
| 62 | Brandon Morrow | @LAA (Haren) | N/A | 8 BBs in 32 2/3 innings |
| Morrow finally got some Ks on Saturday against the Mariners. Even if he doesn't keep that up, his control has been impressive so far. | ||||
| 63 | Kyle Lohse | @HOU (Harrell) | N/A | Nine consecutive quality starts |
| Is this a new Lohse? During his quality start streak, which dates back to 2011, he has struck out 42 batters while walking only 10. | ||||
| 64 | Chad Billingsley | @CHC (Garza) | N/A | Career 0.7 HR/9 |
| Whatever shortcomings Billingsley has had in recent years, he has always been stingy with homers. That's bad news for the Cubs, who rank last in the majors in the category. | ||||
| 65 | Jason Vargas | MIN (Pavano) | N/A | Career 3.57 ERA at Safeco Field |
| Vargas is often safe to use for his home starts, but that's especially true this week, since he is facing a power-deprived Twins lineup. | ||||
| 66 | Ryan Dempster | @CIN (Leake) | N/A | 23 Ks in 20 1/3 innings |
| Dempster (quad) is expected to be activated from the DL for Thursday's start, and he should pick up where he left off. | ||||
| 67 | Tim Hudson | @COL (Moscoso) | N/A | .331 opponents' SLG in 2011 |
| It remains to be seen how rusty Hudson (back) will be coming off the DL, but he has been a reliable Fantasy start for years and deserves a chance in Week 5. | ||||
| 68 | Tim Lincecum | MIL (Estrada) | N/A | 24 Ks in 18 2/3 innings |
| Despite diminished velocity, Lincecum continues to give owners strikeouts. There hasn't been much else, so he's a low-end option for standard mixed leagues for now. | ||||
| 69 | Tommy Milone | @BOS (Buchholz) | @TB (Moore) | 44 percent ground ball rate |
| Milone is good at inducing infield flies, but he is also showing an improved ability to get grounders over his first four starts. | ||||
| 70 | Jason Hammel | @NYY (Kuroda) | @BOS (Buchholz) | 94 mph average fastball velocity |
| Hammel is throwing harder than he did earlier in his career, and it's probably not a coincidence that he is posting a career-high swinging strike rate. | ||||
Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyBB or Al Melchior at @almelccbs . You can also e-mail us at fantasybaseball@cbsinteractive.com .
