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Reality Check: Sorting through minor details

Senior Fantasy Writer
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It was a fun weekend, wasn't it? One filled with laughter and amusement -- a fine diversion after another tough week.

Yes, it's always nice to break from the daily grind, whether it's your job or your job away from your job: Fantasy Baseball owner.

But it makes the return to reality that much more difficult, and if you did check out mentally this weekend, you've no doubt awoken to a world so strange and new that a brief moment of panic might set in as you pause to consider whether the blur you left behind actually measured in days or ... gulp ... weeks.

Really, it was a fun weekend.

But relax. A weekend is all it was. You still have your job, and you still have a competitive Fantasy lineup. You just can't expect Bryce Harper or Mike Trout to be a part of it.

Both are major-leaguers now, and it happened with so little buildup or warning that you'd think each was just another Cody Ransom or Will Rhymes getting called up to fill out a bench spot.

Where were the press releases chronicling every lineup change at Triple-A Salt Lake? Where were the swarms of reporters around general manager Mike Rizzo every time he set foot out of his office? Where were the countdowns to this date on every scoreboard at every stadium across the country?

In these days of Twitter, smart phones and 24-hour sports networks, how could this have caught anyone by surprise? Someone, somewhere surely had to know in time to relay you the message before you, ahem, "got your weekend on."

At worst, news this big should have interrupted your weekend. Given the hype over these two all these years in advance, you'd think someone would stop you on the street, slap you in the face, scream, "It's now! They're here! We're saved!" and leap into the arms of the next passerby without even giving you a chance to ask what he meant by "it," "they" or "we."

Not that you'd need to, of course.

But it didn't happen that way. The world kept turning, the clock kept ticking, and baseball kept happening whether you were aware of it or not. And with that, your grand plan to wait on Harper and Trout, convinced they wouldn't arrive until midseason, backfired. You're too late. You missed the rush. Both are owned in more than 80 percent of leagues already.

And while we could argue whether or not they'll be able to stick in the majors at ages 19 and 20 -- it's little more than a guessing game at this point, especially since, in Harper's case, the Nationals have suggested he's just a DL fill-in -- we can't argue whether or not they're worth owning. The upside is too enticing to pass up. Harper is the LeBron James of baseball prospects, as Sports Illustrated put it back in 2009, and Mike Trout is good enough that at least a few publications were willing to rank him ahead of Harper entering this season.

Most Owned Minor Leaguers (as of 4/30)
Player % owned
1. Trevor Bauer, SP, D-Backs 47
2. Jair Jurrjens, SP, Braves 40
3. Andy Pettitte, SP, Yankees 38
4. Julio Teheran, SP, Braves 27
5. Shelby Miller, SP, Cardinals 27
6. Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Cubs 26
7. Nolan Arenado, 3B, Rockies 24
8. Brett Jackson, OF, Cubs 19
9. Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B, Indians 17
10. Danny Hultzen, SP, Mariners 17

So there you have it. If they do break out, it'll be to someone else's delight, and there's nothing you can do about it. Maybe next time you'll think twice about unplugging yourself during the most critical period of the Fantasy Baseball season for no other reason than to savor the short-term thrills of a weekend hootenanny.

Or maybe you could just take a preemptive approach and make room on your roster for the next wave of impact call-ups, which I plan to tell you about right now.

Guess that makes me an enabler, huh? That's all I need on my conscience right now.

Obviously, the minor leagues have no shortage of prospects, so this list could go on forever if I let it. But I want to focus on the real game-changers -- the ones special enough that, like Harper and Trout, claiming them off the waiver wire could be the Fantasy equivalent to winning the lottery. And while Will Middlebrooks, Anthony Rizzo and Leonys Martin have caught the attention of Fantasy owners early this season, all have obvious enough drawbacks -- such as a questionable ceiling (Martin), a patient front office (Rizzo) or a shortage of openings in the majors (Middlebrooks) -- that stashing them might just end up being a fool's errand.

No, when I narrow down the infinite list of prospects to the ones with the right combination of ability and opportunity to become legitimate game-changers in every Fantasy format this season, I'm left with only two names: Trevor Bauer and Nolan Arenado.

So what makes them so alluring? The sizzle is a little louder on Bauer, who has so far gotten the most attention of any 2011 draft pick even though Gerrit Cole and Danny Hultzen both went off the board ahead of him.

Part of the reason is the Diamondbacks' own doing -- they gave the 21-year-old a shot at a rotation spot in spring training -- but part of it is a reflection of how close the scouts think Bauer is to being major-league ready. He's an intelligent player, having studied biomechanics and effective velocity in an effort to maximize a delivery that has earned him comparisons to Tim Lincecum. With Daniel Hudson on the DL and Josh Collmenter to the bullpen, the Diamondbacks rotation has already taken some hits, and though they've figured out ways to patch it up for now, Bauer's double-digit strikeout performances will become too tempting to confine to Double-A Mobile if the trend continues.

Arenado, meanwhile, was already considered the best third base prospect in baseball before winning MVP honors in the Arizona Fall League, where he played with Harper and Trout, among other top prospects. So far, his promotion to Double-A Tulsa hasn't interrupted his .300-hitting ways. With Quadruple-A player Chris Nelson currently starting at third base for the Rockies, little stands in the way of Arenado reaching the big leagues. The Rockies need his bat to contend this season, and every weak Nelson grounder brings them closer to realizing it.

So if you want to make sure you get the highest-impact prospects but don't necessarily have the flexibility to rush to your computer the moment they get the call, you don't have to relive the Harper-Trout disaster. Pick up Bauer and Arenado now and keep living it up on the weekends.

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In the now ... A look at how recent events have impacted certain players' Fantasy value

Jose Altuve, 2B, Astros: As the second-ranked second baseman in Head-to-Head leagues, Altuve deserves far more attention than he's getting in Fantasy. Yes, his .359 batting average is a little high, but nothing else he's doing is inherently unsustainable. With six doubles, three triples, one homer and four steals, he's simply providing a little bit of everything, which is exactly the kind of player he was in the minors. Maybe if Altuve was some 33-year-old journeyman with a mostly unappealing track record, I could understand the skepticism, but considering he's only 21, these numbers could be the start of something special. Think Shane Victorino, only at second base.

Mark Reynolds, 1B/3B, Orioles: Yes, Reynolds' all-or-nothing approach makes him inherently streaky, and if that streakiness causes him to hit three homers tomorrow, which then propels him to have another 35-homer season, this whole blurb will be moot. Never has he started this slowly, though -- not even last year, when he hit .169 in April. And even if streakiness is the cause, it won't matter if the Orioles don't let him play his way out of it. Lately, they've been sitting him every other day, unwilling to accept his subpar defense when he's also providing nothing at the plate. Again, Reynolds is the type of player who can make up for lost time quicker than most, but if I drafted him to be my starting third baseman, I'm testing the market right now.

Henry Rodriguez, RP, Nationals: When Drew Storen went down with an elbow injury to begin the season, most Fantasy owners assumed Brad Lidge, owner of 223 career saves, when get the first crack at the role. He did but wasn't quite dominant enough to prevent Rodriguez from stealing a few opportunities of his own. Eventually, Rodriguez was the one getting the majority of those opportunities, and now that Lidge is on the DL with an abdominal strain, that's it. Competition over. Rodriguez is the closer in Washington now, and with his 100-mph fastball, he may just be beginning a lengthy career in the role. Eventually, Storen will come back, but Rodriguez has time to turn plenty of heads between now and then. If saves count for anything in your league, don't let him go unowned.

Ryan Roberts, 2B/3B, Diamondbacks: When manager Kirk Gibson sat Roberts for four consecutive games last week, he said he was only trying to clear the 31-year-old's head. But if you own Roberts in Fantasy, you have to see the writing on the wall here. He's not going to keep his job if he can't get on base at a decent rate -- something he also had trouble doing last September, when he hit.205. Roberts isn't a lost cause offensively, but the Diamondbacks may ultimately decide he's better off in a utility role. With journeyman Cody Ransom filling in admirably now and prospects Ryan Wheeler and Matt Davidson waiting in the wings, Roberts doesn't need to be the answer at third base. Don't let him be yours in mixed leagues.

Edwin Encarnacion, 1B/3B, Blue Jays: Streakiness is nothing new for Encarnacion, which is why his hot start this season is hardly cause for celebration in Fantasy. That's the assumption, anyway. But I'm not convinced he's entirely a finished product at age 29. For one thing, his "hot streak" last year lasted an entire second half, yielding a .291 batting average and 11 homers in 234 at-bats. Combine it with this hot start, not to mention a spring training in which he hit .306 with four home runs, and Encarnacion is batting .296 with 21 homers in his last 382 at-bats. Hot streak? Maybe. But if I was lucky enough to draft him late in Fantasy, I'm cautiously optimistic he has found enough consistency at this stage of his career to keep me happy at third base.

Down the line ... A brief update on some of the minor-leaguers who have caught the attention of Fantasy owners

Patrick Corbin, SP, Diamondbacks: When the Diamondbacks ousted Josh Collmenter from the starting rotation on Saturday, the Trevor Bauer watch began anew. But it's actually Corbin, another of the organization's many pitching prospects, getting the first crack at major-league duty. Corbin doesn't have quite the pedigree of Bauer, but he's a little older and obviously has more professional experience. He lasted deep into spring training and posted a 3.00 ERA in 21 innings there before moving on to Double-A, where he compiled a 1.67 mark in four starts. He may ultimately just be keeping the seat warm for Bauer, but his strikeout-to-walk ratio is encouraging enough that he's worth an NL-only flier in his own right.

Tyler Moore, 1B, Nationals: Moore's power has never been in question. He hit 31 homers back-to-back years in the minors before connecting for seven in 77 at-bats at Triple-A Syracuse this year. Yet at age 25, he's only now getting his first taste in the majors. Clearly, the scouts have never thought much of him, and given his all-or-nothing approach, you can understand why. But Mark Trumbo's success last year gives fringe prospects like Moore renewed hope. The Nationals say phenom Bryce Harper is only up until Ryan Zimmerman returns from the DL, but Zimmerman's return won't solve their crisis in left field. Don't be surprised if Moore ends up getting the majority of the starts there in the weeks ahead.

Dylan Axelrod, SP, White Sox: Sticking with the theme of unheralded prospects suddenly getting a look in the majors, Axelrod was mowing down hitters at Triple-A Charlotte at the time of his promotion Friday, posting a 1.08 ERA and 26-to-4 strikeout ratio in 25 innings. The White Sox don't have an opening in their starting rotation right now and, therefore, plan to use Axelrod in long relief, but if his newfound success (which he attributes to an improved changeup) continues in the majors, don't be surprised if he's the one shifted to the starting five when something inevitably does go wrong. Hey, the same thing happened for David Phelps.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyBB or Scott White at @CBSScottWhite . You can also e-mail us at fantasybaseball@cbsinteractive.com .

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Player News
A's to place Coco Crisp (neck) on disabled list Saturday
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(10:49 pm ET) Athletics manager Bob Melvin said the team will place outfielder Coco Crisp on the disabled list Saturday, reports The San Francisco Chronicle.

Crisp has not played since May 19 because of a neck injury, but it will not require surgery.


Tigers' J.D. Martinez powers Tigers to win over Astros on Friday
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(10:38 pm ET) Tigers outfielder J.D. Martinez smacked a three-run home run to lift the Tigers to a 6-2 win over the Astros on Friday.

The home run came off Collin McHugh in the third inning. It was his ninth home run of the season. Martinez finished the game 2 for 3 with three RBI. Over his last 13 games, Martinez is 18 for 47 with three home runs and six RBI.


Astros SP Collin McHugh allows nine hits in Friday's loss
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(10:28 pm ET) Astros pitcher Collin McHugh surrendered a season-high nine hits over seven innings of work during Friday's 6-2 loss to the Tigers.

The nine hits led to three runs, which all came on a home run by J.D. Martinez in the third inning. McHugh has pitched at least seven innings in five of his last seven starts. His ERA now stands at 3.43.

His next expected start is scheduled for Wednesday at Baltimore.


Tigers SP Alfredo Simon earns fifth win of season Friday
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(10:20 pm ET) Tigers pitcher Alfredo Simon allowed two runs on four hits over seven innings of work to earn his fifth win of season during Friday's 6-2 win over the Astros.

Simon struck out five batters and walked one during the outing. Both of the runs came in the third inning when Jason Castro scored on a throwing error and Luis Valbuena scored on a single.

Simon (5-2) has not surrendered more than three runs in four-consecutive starts. His ERA now stands at 2.67. His next scheduled start is set for Wednesday at Oakland.


Nationals RP Drew Storen earns 13th save of season Friday
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(10:09 pm ET) Nationals pitcher Drew Storen entered in the ninth inning with a one-run lead and he was able to shut the door on the Phillies for his 13th save of the season during Friday's 2-1 win.

Storen allowed two hits during the relief appearance, but he was able to record the final three outs to earn the save. He also struck out two batters during the appearance. Storen has saved 13 out of 14 save opportunities this season.


Pirates P Chris Stewart gets start, goes 2 for 3 in win
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(9:58 pm ET) Pirates catcher Chris Stewart was the only member of his club to post a multi-hit game in Friday night's 4-1 victory over the Mets. 

Stewart went 2 for 3 from the plate, which included hitting his third double of the season. The double came in the second inning and scored Gregory Polanco.

This was only Stewart's 15th appearance of the season and 10th start. 

Stewart is now slashing .267/.277/.333 for the season. 


Phillies SP Sean O'Sullivan receives loss in Friday's start
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(9:55 pm ET) Despite only giving up two runs over six innings of work, Phillies starter Sean O'Sullivan received his third loss of the season during Friday's 2-1 loss to the Nationals.

O'Sullivan allowed five hits during the outing. He struck out three batters and walked one. His biggest mistake was surrendering a solo home run to Bryce Harper in the second inning.

O'Sullivan has not pitched past the sixth inning in any of five starts this season. His next scheduled start is set for Wednesday at the New York Mets.


Mets P Noah Syndergaard strikes out 5 in loss to Pirates
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(9:53 pm ET) Mets pitcher Noah Syndergaard fell to 1-2 for the season after losing Friday night's game 4-1 to the Pirates. 

Syndergaard, the heralded 22-year-old, allowed four runs — three earned — in six innings of work. He gave up seven hits, struck out five and didn't surrender any walks. He now holds an ERA of 3.63 this season. 

After giving up five walks in his first two starts, it's a good sign that Syndergaard was able to prevent any from occurring against the Pirates. 

Syndergaard's next start is projected for May 27 against the Phillies. 


Nationals SP Max Scherzer earns fifth win of season Friday
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(9:49 pm ET) Nationals pitcher Max Scherzer allowed one run on four hits over eight innings of work to earn his fifth win of the season during Friday's 2-1 win over the Phillies.

By going eight innings, Scherzer became the first Nationals pitcher since Livan Hernandez in 2005 to pitch at least seven innings in seven-straight starts.

Scherzer (5-3) struck out six batters and walked one during Friday's start. He was able to lower his ERA from 1.75 to 1.67. The one run Scherzer allowed during the game came in the second inning when Odubel Herrera doubled in Maikel Franco.

His next expected start is scheduled for Wednesday at the Chicago Cubs.


Pirates' Mark Melancon earns save against Mets
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(9:49 pm ET) Pirates pitcher Mark Melancon recorded his 10th save of the season in Friday night's 4-1 win over the Mets. 

Melancon took over for starter Gerrit Cole in the ninth inning and recorded the game's final two outs. This marked Melancon's fourth appearance in a row without allowing an earned run. He now holds an ERA of 3.15 this season. 


 
 
 
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