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By the Numbers: Changes in the air

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It's hard to judge power numbers even a little more than a month into the season, but here goes nothing.

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The reason it's difficult to know which way the trends will go for Fantasy's power hitters is because, at this stage in the schedule, most regulars still have roughly 130 at-bats, but only a portion of those involve hitting the ball in the air. Subtract the times that a hitter strikes out or hits grounders and you are left with a not-so-robust sample size. Of course, the absence of flyballs and line drives in and of itself can be a sign of reduced power, but again, those clusters of at-bats aren't very large yet.

There's another way to look at this, though. Even the most flyball-prone hitters have launched the ball only about 45 to 55 times so far. Jose Bautista, for example, has 55 flyballs to date, but after hitting his first 50, he had turned only five of those into homers. Five flyballs and three home runs later, fewer Fantasy owners are likely to be stressing about him, as he is now on a 35-homer pace. Give just a little extra distance to any of his six warning track outs and ... problem completely solved.

So the main focus of this week's buy/sell analysis is on home run per flyball ratios (HR/FB). From season to season, they are fairly stable, but with small samples sizes, they can vary wildly. Some of this season's aberrant rates can clue us in on some potential buy and sell candidates.

Top buy candidates

Top Buy Candidates
Player HR/FB (%) Flyball Rate (%) HR Avg.
Nelson Cruz 7.5 38.5 4 0.273
Mike Napoli 22.6 41.9 7 0.259
Brian McCann 8.7 47.9 5 0.231
Omar Infante 12.8 47.0 6 0.304
Kyle Seager 8.7 45.5 4 0.284

Nelson Cruz, OF, Rangers: Cruz's ground ball rate has crept upward both this year and last, but the real problem is that his 40 flyballs have produced just three home runs. (He also has a line drive homer this year.) This early in the year, it would take only two or three additional homers to get Cruz close to his norm, and it's not as if he has been totally hopeless as a power hitter this year. He already has 10 doubles, all of which have come via flyballs and line drives. Owners are starting to bench Cruz in shallower leagues, so there could be an opportunity to grab him in your league before he breaks out.

Mike Napoli, C/1B, Rangers: No one can take issue with Napoli's home run power this year, but he hasn't done much aside from his seven dingers. Still, some owners may have been getting concerned, as he had gone 10 straight games without an extra base hit prior to last Thursday. Through his slump, he had hit only .176, but he has been less strikeout-prone in his recent games. Not only should Napoli's home run thump return, but he is bound to get more hits in general as he improves on his 33 percent strikeout rate.

Brian McCann, C, Braves: Home run power hasn't actually been a problem for McCann, as he has already belted five of them. His flyball and HR/FB rates have been close to normal for much of the early going, but not enough of his flies and liners have turned into doubles. In recent trades on our site, McCann has been dealt straight up for players like Corey Hart, Jeremy Hellickson and Kyle Lohse, but he is better than that. If you're in a league with an owner who underappreciates McCann because of his low batting average, you just might be able to get an elite catcher at a bargain price.

Omar Infante, 2B, Marlins: Infante's power surge came seemingly out of nowhere, so many owners remain skeptical of it. While I don't think Infante will remain on a 25-30 homer pace, a couple of trends point to him being more than just a streaming option. The 11-year veteran has jacked up his flyball rate to 47 percent, and while it's considerably higher than it has been in recent seasons, he posted similarly high rates earlier in his career. A near-quadrupling of his HR/FB ratio looks far more suspicious, but he has been more of a pull hitter this year, so some flyouts to straightaway center have been swapped for homers over the left field wall. Infante shouldn't be treated as a high-end option, but he is worth acquiring if you have a marginal option at second base.

Kyle Seager, 3B, Mariners: Seager has just passed the 300 plate appearance threshold as a major leaguer, and in that time, he has little use for hitting grounders. Seager had been a good line drive hitter in the minors, but he has been hitting more flyballs since arriving in Seattle last year. If he keeps it up, he could have a 15-homer season, especially since he has won regular playing time. Seager's 8.7 percent HR/FB is considerably higher than last year's, but not far out of line with his minor league rates. While Seager has improved his power skills, his walk rate has dipped, but he is capable of reversing it. With the potential for a high on-base percentage and moderate power, Seager is underutilized, as he is starting in only 60 percent of the leagues on CBSSports.com. With so many third basemen injured or underperforming, Seager could be an inexpensive and productive solution for many owners.

Top sell candidates

Top Sell Candidates
Player HR/FB (%) Flyball Rate (%) HR Avg.
Matt Joyce 12.5 47.1 7 0.274
Carlos Beltran 23.1 43.8 13 0.295
Mike Moustakas 8.9 49.5 4 0.306
Luke Scott 14.6 48.8 7 0.236
Aaron Hill 9.6 51.0 5 0.246

Matt Joyce, OF, Rays: With seven home runs through his first 34 games, Joyce is off to a furious start. He has increased his power by lifting his flyball rate from 42 percent a year ago to 47 percent this year. That could just be a small-sample fluke, but there are other concerns as well. With so many flyballs and fewer line drives, Joyce could have trouble maintaining a .274 batting average. Also, once Evan Longoria returns to the lineup, Ben Zobrist will likely get moved back to the outfield to platoon with Joyce, reducing his playing time. Longoria won't be back for several weeks, but it still makes sense to deal Joyce now while he is hot.

Carlos Beltran, OF, Cardinals: After just over a month, Beltran is more than halfway to last season's home run total of 22 -- and 2011 was not exactly a down year for him. Beltran's 23.1 percent HR/FB ratio would not have looked out of place with the rates from the peak of his career, but it's a far cry from his recent rates. Even if he can maintain it, there are other warning signs. He is striking out and hitting grounders at higher rates than he did last season, so he is highly reliant on maintaining his home run power in order to bolster his Fantasy value. Given that his HR/FB ratio is more than double last season's already-robust mark, Beltran is looking like one of the best sell-high targets right now, even if his knee is acting up again.

Mike Moustakas, 3B, Royals: Having already notched four home runs, Moustakas could be on his way to a 20-homer season. He has increased his flyball and HR/FB rates to get on that pace, but his minor league numbers suggested that he was due for an uptick from his rookie numbers. The parts of his current stat line that look suspicious are the .306 batting average and 11 doubles. Moustakas pops up far too often to maintain such a high average, and he's not enough of a line drive hitter to be a reliable source of doubles. He's worth retaining in long-term keeper leagues, but in single-season formats, he may not have any more value than what he has right now.

Luke Scott, OF, Rays: With Houston and Baltimore, Scott showed that he could be a good source of power, albeit a streaky one. Tropicana Field is not as hospitable to power hitters as either of his previous home parks, but Scott has managed to rack up seven home runs in the early going. It's not surprising that only two of those have come at home, but even though he has played his away games in a series of good hitters' parks, his overall 14.6 HR/FB ratio looks like a high-end aberration. Perhaps this is just one of Scott's patented power streaks. In any event, owners in standard mixed leagues can find better options when Scott and the Rays are in the midst of a homestand, and that results in just too much time with Scott on the bench. Let him help to clog up someone's else reserve slots.

Aaron Hill, 2B, Diamondbacks: Just three weeks ago, I put Hill in the "hold" category. A low batting average made him a potential buy-low target, but a high infield fly rate put his chances of building a higher average at risk. Hill has since moderated his extreme flyball tendencies, and correspondingly, he entered into a 13-game power skid that may or may not have ended with Monday's home run against the Dodgers. After a power-deprived 2011 season, Hill needed to build on his early extra-base binge, but he has done little to bolster his owners' confidence over the last couple of weeks. Now would be a good time to deal him, while his overall stat line is still buoyed by a late April hot streak.

Hold these hitters

Top Hold Candidates
Player HR/FB (%) Flyball Rate (%) HR Avg.
Edwin Encarnacion 16.1 54.4 11 0.270
Adam Dunn 26.8 56.9 12 0.250
Gaby Sanchez 2.4 47.2 1 0.198
Rickie Weeks 6.5 38.8 3 0.157

Edwin Encarnacion, 1B/3B, Blue Jays: Encarnacion was a "sell" two weeks ago, but that was before his batting average was corrected down from .286 to .270. His flyball and HR/FB rates are higher than usual, but not to the degree that he can't sustain a level close to what he has achieved so far. While I still expect some erosion in Encarnacion's rate stats, he just may be finally cashing in on his potential to hit 30-plus home runs.

Adam Dunn, 1B/DH, White Sox: Dunn was another "sell" candidate a couple of weeks ago, but he, too, has settled into a more believable pattern of production. He's getting fewer base hits on balls in play -- not typically his strong suit -- and is simply launching flyballs for homers. This is a version of Dunn that I can trust, as his 26.8 percent HR/FB ratio looks at home with his pre-2011 levels.

Gaby Sanchez, 1B, Marlins: Sanchez's history tells us that he is much better than what he has shown, but his current peripherals say that he is just a mess. He has been tentative at the plate, taking strikes far more often, but when he swings and connects, it's often with weak contact. These problems are likely fixable, but there is too much wrong here to merit buy-low status for now.

Rickie Weeks, 2B, Brewers: Weeks is hitting more flyballs, but it hasn't resulted in greater power. That's because he has been too busy striking out. There is time for Weeks to increase his HR/FB ratio from its current 6.5 percent mark, but he will also have to start making more frequent contact -- and get himself healthy -- to get himself back on the "buy" list.

Glossary
xFIP: Also known as Expected Fielding Independent Pitching. It is an estimate of what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based on factors that a pitcher can control, such as strikeouts, walks and flyballs. xFIP is a derivative of FIP, which was developed by Tom Tango.
Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James
Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James
GO/AO -- Ground out-air out ratio
GB/FB -- Ground ball-fly ball ratio
Batting Average per Balls in Play (BABIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30%
Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth
Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks)
Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyBB or Al Melchior at @almelccbs . You can also e-mail us at fantasybaseball@cbsinteractive.com .

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Player News
Goryks Hernandez expected to arrive at camp Saturday after visa delay
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(10:01 am ET) Pirates outfielder Gorkys Hernandez is expected to arrive at spring training Saturday after being delayed by visa issues, reports MLB.com. Hernandez, 27, last played in the majors in 2012 and hit .192 with three home runs and 13 RBI. 

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(9:56 am ET) Rays pitcher Ronald Belisario is expected to miss at least two weeks with a fractured left shoulder, reports the Tampa Bay Times. Belisario was involved in an accident before he reported to camp and has been seen with his arm in a sling.

Belisario posted a 4-8 record with eight saves in 2014 with a 5.56 ERA in 66 1/3 innings pitched.


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by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(9:51 am ET) New Yankees infielder Garrett Jones knows third base currently belongs to Alex Rodriguez. However, the 33-year-old is envisioning a scenario where he and A-Rod are both able to play equally throughout the season.

"That's what it comes down to," Jones said to NJ.com. "When he's getting his opportunity, he'll do his thing. And when I'm getting my opportunity, I'm going to do what I do. In a perfect world, we're both swinging the beat well and we're both in their on a regular basis."

Jones struggled to hit the ball well in 2014, hitting .246 with 15 homeruns and 53 RBI.

"It can mess with you," Jones said. "As a hitter, do I need to do extra? Do I need to change my swing? Do I not have as much power as I used to? A lot of things are going through your head. You try to not let it bother you but for a guy that's supposed to be driving the ball and having home runs, it's part of my game. ... I was trying to pull everything and it turned getting around too much on the ball and I just lost. I was getting pounded (with) sinkers away and I lost that approach to drive the ball to left-center."


Brewers' Khris Davis to work on being a patient hitter in 2015
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(2/27/2015) Brewers outfielder Khris Davis realizes he didn't show patience at the plate last year in his first full major-league season, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.

"I built a reputation in the organization of being a patient hitter," Davis said. "I felt like I wasn't a patient hitter at all last year. I was a little eager, wanting to please too much, too early. I found out I'm human."

Davis drew just 32 walks in 549 plate appearances while posting a .299 OBP in 2014, a number far away from his career .392 OBP in the minors.

"He was different last year," manager Ron Roenicke said. "Everybody goes through different phases. Guys change. (His walk total) was too low. He's a guy I think should be fairly patient. He sees pitches well. When he starts getting anxious, he becomes more aggressive and chases more. He realizes it, which is the first step. If you don't realize it and don't listen to other people when they tell you that, then you have issues. You have to have good self-awareness to be a good player. Sometimes these players don't have good self-awareness. But if they had better self-awareness they'd be a better player."

Davis is determined to fulfill the potential that caused the organization to move Ryan Braun to right field before the 2014 season and plug Davis into the regular left-field role.

"I can't thank them enough for having patience with me," Davis said. "I'm going to work it out. When you get here, you want to stay. That's the toughest part at first. I don't think this league has seen the best of me yet. I'm ready to pull that out and prove it day by day. I learned so many lessons there are too many to name."

Davis hit .244/.299/.457 with 22 home runs and 69 RBI in 501 at-bats.


Indians' Francona keeping a close eye on Giovanny Urshela
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(2/27/2015) Indians manager Terry Francona has been keeping a close eye on third-base prospect Giovanny Urshela, who was only recently cleared for a full range of activities after tweaking his knee during winter ball, MLB.com reports.

"He has a tremendous reputation of being a really good defender," Francona said. "I think I've been more wanting to watch his gait, just to make sure he's not favoring that leg. He promised us that, if he was, he'd let us know, but I also know he's a young kid in his first major-league camp."

Urshela suffered the injury on Nov. 15 and has rehabbed the injured knee at the team's spring-training facility in Goodyear, Ariz.

"He's worked really hard to get himself to where he can go through a normal spring," said Indians' director of player development Carter Hawkins. "We're very excited about the spot he's in right now, given the possible outcomes of the injury."

Urshela saw his first action at the Triple-A level in 2014, hitting .276/.331/.473 with 13 home runs and 65 RBI in 395 at-bats with Columbus.


Reds' Brennan Boesch to see time at first base this spring
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(2/27/2015) Reds manager Bryan Price indicated Friday that outfielder Brennan Boesch would see time at all three outfield spots as well as at first base as he competes for a roster spot this spring, MLB.com reports.

"We already know he's a terrific player," Price said of Boesch, who has never played first base professionally. "He kind of got banged up and lost his way a little bit, but I think he feels -- and we feel -- that he's back on top of his game, and maybe his best days are ahead of him."

Boesch said he doesn't see the battle for a reserve outfield role as a "competition."

"I only care about the competition against the pitcher, and that's really as basic as I keep it," Boesch said. "You aren't competing against other players. We're all on the same side here. We're all wearing Red jerseys. Let the chips fall where they may."

Boesch struggled in limited time with the Angels in 2014 but hit .332/.381/.636 with 25 home runs, 85 RBI and 10 stolen bases in 374 at-bats with Triple-A Salt Lake.


Dodgers' Mattingly: Turner has 'put a lot of time in and it shows'
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(2/27/2015) Dodgers infielder Justin Turner earned a nonroster invitation to the team's camp last year and ended up leading the team in batting average, and he's been working on his body like a fiend over the winter, MLB.com reports.

"Going into last year, we felt if he played every day, he'd get in trouble, and we found that out, but this year maybe he can handle more," manager Don Mattingly said Friday. "He's really been diligent about his work, been at Dodger Stadium almost daily. He's put a lot of time in and it shows."

Turner credited strength-and-conditioning coach Brandon McDaniel for his workout success.

"Brandon did everything. He's been a one-man wrecking crew," said Turner. "He and his family deserve the credit. I've been able to establish a routine and train consistently. Before I signed a year ago, I was on my own, going to 24 Hour Fitness, had to coordinate everything myself."

Turner added that he lost 18 pounds this winter through a healthier diet. Mattingly said that he intends to use the infielder at the corner-infield positions and also potentially up the middle.


Nationals' Matt Skole: 'I'm eating healthy and working hard'
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(2/27/2015) Nationals first baseman Matt Skole missed most of 2013 after undergoing Tommy John surgery and struggled at the plate in 2014 but showed up to camp in better shape and will look to rebound in 2015, MLB.com reports.

"This offseason, I had a little more time to work on my body," Skole said. "I really got after it in the weight room. I ate right. I ate healthy. I think that was probably the biggest difference for me. I'm about the same weight as I was. I just leaned out a little bit. I'm eating healthy and working hard."

Skole worked with hitting coordinator Troy Gingrich for a month after the season and learned to keep his hands up in order to hit the ball consistently after having his hands too low during his down 2014 season.

"After taking a year off, it was more difficult than I thought it would be," the left-handed-swinging Skole said. "But coming back, I turned some corners, made some strides as far as getting to know myself as a player and know the things I need to fix. I think everything I did last year was a stepping stone for this year."

Skole hit .241/.352/.399 with 14 home runs and 68 RBI in 461 at-bats with Double-A Harrisburg last season.


Report: Dodgers sign center fielder Travis Witherspoon
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(2/27/2015) The Dodgers signed center fielder Travis Witherspoon to their organization, according to a report from Baseball America

Witherspoon has previously been in the Angels and Mariners organizations. In six years of minor-league ball, Witherspoon has posted a career batting average of .252 with 68 home runs. He hit a minor-league single-season best 15 home runs in 2014 with the Mariners' Single-A affiliate High Desert Mavericks. 


Phillies' Buchanan 'working on being a complete pitcher'
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(2/27/2015) Phillies pitcher David Buchanan is "working on being a complete pitcher," manager Ryan Sandberg said, per the Philadelphia Inquirer.

The team's coaches spoke with Buchanan in the fall about command and pitch sequencing, executing bunts and thwarting would-be base-stealers, and Sandberg noted while examining the players that arrived early that the pitcher had taken the advice to heart.

"My biggest goal [this spring] is to show our front office and our coaches that I can throw the ball over the plate," Buchanan said. "That's one thing I had success with last year. I wasn't walking guys. I was throwing strikes, and that's what I'm known for. That's why I succeeded in the minor leagues; I was throwing strikes. So that's what I want to do this spring training, is continue to do that, pound the zone, force early contact and keep the ball on the ground."

Buchanan is scheduled to pitch the team's Grapefruit League opener Tuesday against the Yankees.


 
 
 
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